Damn man. Last game was there for the taking but Roberts really shot us in the foot with his musical chair lefty righty substitutions in the 6th. They ended up winning so he will not be questioned for his decision making that inning but Maddon really out classed him there and that spoke volumes to me. That was just not a smart move at all. You gotta be aware of all possible outcomes as a manager but more importantly just let the guys play man. Nonetheless, it was a solid weekend for us as we dug ourselves out of the hole & back into the green. Lets keep a foot on the gas & position our way to double digit units. I feel comfortable going back to 1 unit plays now that I have some cushion. The marathon continues. Happy Father's Day to all Dads and have a great night everybody.
The kid Keller going for Bucs is a solid pitching prospect. His first 2 starts in the bigs unfortunately came against the Reds & Braves on the road who were both scorching hot at the time. A glance at his numbers makes you cringe but I got to watch both of his outings & I can confidently say he looked much better then the numbers indicate. There were a good number of weak contact hits that split the infielders and even a few flyouts in Atlanta that carried in the wind which led to extra base knocks. The Bucs are now back home & looking to hit the reset button on their poor starting pitching efforts & it will start today with Keller. Steep price here for a unproven pitcher but ill take the young gunner Keller to capitalize on an opportunity against one of the poorer offenses in the league.
Mets -113 / 113 to win 100
Atlanta has been scorching hot & it pains me to know that I saw a run from them coming yet I happened to bet on 2 of the only 3 games they have lost this month. But this isn't a vengeful play by any means. Although I do admit it would feel awesome to finally be on the right side of one of their games. The play is on DeGrom. He will easily be the best pitcher the Braves have seen all month. Its clear he has rebounded from his poor start this season and is back to pitching at a Cy Young level. Mets bullpen has been hot garbage but a close game would set up DeGrom-Lugo-Edwin, which I am more then comfortable with. On the other side, Teheran has been extremely solid for Atlanta since the start of May. He's not allowing teams to string together base hits and score runs even though he has continued to walk guys at an alarming rate. I think that has to catch up eventually & even though Mets aren't the greatest lineup, they definitely got some vets & young sluggers in the middle of that lineup who are licking their chops at a chance to do damage with baserunners on & help DeGrom capture a crucial victory against a division opponent.
Rockies/Snakes O9.5 -117 / 117 to win 100
Rockies are rolling into town after scoring a record setting amount of runs during their last series versus the Padres. Needless to say they are swinging hot bats and feeling confident to inflict some damage on Snakes pitcher Kelly. This will be their second look against him this season & the only other time Kelly faced off against an opponent for the second time was against the Padres last month where he struggled to last beyond 2 innings. On the other side, the Snakes offense has been scoring a fair share of runs in their own right & will look to protect home field against hittable pitcher Senzatela & see if they can do some damage the second time around after a failed first effort in Colorado against him just a month ago.
I got 3 plays for now & may have a couple more. Still studying but got to head out for work so ill check in later. Its gonna be an important day today because I really don't want to be hovering anywhere around 0 anymore. Ive missed out on a solid number of units because I switched to lower bet amounts in fear of going too deep into red. Looking at my tracker, if I played everything for 1 unit the whole time and avoided the dreaded, broke boy half unit plays, id be sitting pretty with just under 10 units. I should be more confident in myself though man. But nonetheless, lets really put a foot on the gas here and try to get up to at least double digit units by the end of this month. That will be the goal. Good luck today everybody.
2-1 today. Ill take that every single time. Im noticing certain patterns as I analyze my tracker. I am absolutely crushing money line plays that are smaller then -130 but no bigger then +130. Favorites over -130 are hitting at an underwhelming rate & dogs over +130 are not returning enough yield on investment. First fives have also killed me. And also totals but only recently. Run line plays are favorable but only when im getting the extra points. Parlays with heavy favorites are undefeated although there have only been a few of those. As I slowly accumulate more and more relevant data not just of my own betting patterns, but also the teams/players themselves, then the stronger we should get as we make our way through the rest of the season.
I'm not gonna be around as much for the rest of this week because I'm gonna be preparing to move back to California. Was back home in Arizona for the summer helping my old man get his business off the ground & trying to make a few bucks myself. Good business here in the summer fixing and replacing AC units. I loved being back home & I was even thinking about staying through the fall but I'm so close with finishing school I decided to just to go back & knock that out. I found me a lil hitter back home too boys. She's half hispanic & half Italian. Something from one of them calendar books you know. She would def be one of the summer months you know. She just got it going on & her smile is everything. It sucks cuz now I gotta go back right when we got to that 'come on over and watch the ball game with me' phase you know. That 'grab your ass when I feel like it and its not weird at all' phase you know. I didn't even think I would like her as much as I do man penetrate. That part is crazy to me. I wasn't looking for no damn girlfriend bro. She told me she would come see me out there though when I get settled back in. Its funny cuz I showed my brother this page & he was like 'bro thats not no damn MLB tracker you got a fukkin diary on the internet.' Ahahahah. Really though. I just talk my shit man I don't care. But with school getting ready to gear up & this new lady in my life, it might be tough for me to devote much attention to the site. I'm just not very good at spreading my focus around & I just have to be fully engaged with whatever my priorities are. All energy must go towards whats important in my life. It really sucks cuz more then anything I thought I would be able to at least contribute to people's pockets & run the numbers up. But I haven't been able to do that consistently & I apologize for that. Some cool people here though. Im gonna be in Vegas for summer league next weekend & if anybody wants to link up in Sin City let me know. Drop me a message. Ill leave ya with a 3 piece today & ill check in when I can going forward. Peace out everybody
I like the Braves to bounce back here after an emotional loss to this Cubs team yesterday where we saw tempers flare & heated exchanges between players. This team is all about talking the talk & they always show up when it counts to walk the walk. They haven't lost back to back games in almost a month & now send Fried on the mound who has had outstanding success against this Cubs roster to put them back in position to capture another series victory in this 4 game set. The Cubs will counter with rookie pitcher Alzolay who was strong in his 4 inning pick me up performance last week. Although he had a strong initial big league showing, his minor league numbers don't exactly give off the impression that he will continue pitching nearly as well going forward, especially considering the circumstances today facing off against a dynamic Braves lineup with versatile hitters 1-8. If the wind is blowing out again, that could serve trouble for the rookie pitcher and quite the contrary for Fried who is great at keeping the ball on the ground, not giving up many free bases & letting that tremendous defense behind him work their gloves to get him out of rough spots. Ill take Fried & this Braves lineup here to respond with a strong showing in the 2nd game of 4 at Wrigley field between 2 of the NL's elite teams.
Bucs +240 / 50 to win 120
Bucs +1.5 +114 / 100 to win 114
Astros just recently got back Altuve in the lineup & now will also get key slugger Springer back in there as well as they kick off a 3 game set against the Bucs. When you combine those 2 elite hitters returns plus the fact that their ace on the mound Cole will be facing his former team, all signs point to a convincing Astros victory right? Well thats what the line says but I think not. I actually believe this is a nice spot at a GREAT price for this Bucs squad to continue their win streak & keep playing high level baseball. Cole has been liable to the home run ball at a higher rate then ever before in his career which has drawn some subpar performances from him especially at home. He now matches up with an underrated Bucs lineup who is tremendously poised striking out fewer then any other team in the NL & have put up at least 5 runs in 7 of their 10 road games this month. Cole has relied on strikeouts to get him out of potentially troublesome innings so we'll see how he responds against a team that consistently puts the ball in play & gets sharper as the game goes on. Facing off on the other side of the mound for Bucs is Trevor Williams who in my eyes is one of the more underrated pitchers in the league. He's an intense, competitive pitcher who keeps the ball in the park & refuses to give opposing batters any free bases. He'll attempt to shrug off his most recent start & get back to the strong pace he established prior to his DL stint.
Bucs +178 / 50 to win 89
Bucs/Astros O9.5 / 55 to win 50
Bucs have really hit the ball well on the road this month including a 15 hit, 14 run effort in yesterday's game. They got some hot bats in that lineup right now & are matching up against Peacock who has been decent overall but has struggled with some inconsistencies as of late. He's given up 10 homeruns total on the season and 5 of those have come in the last 3 games alone. On the mound for the Bucs is Musgrove who is returning back to Houston for the first time since getting traded a couple years back & should certainly pitch with a little extra motivation against his former team. He's had some gems so far this season but I do think he faces a tough spot here against an Astros offense that will continuously apply pressure with that deep, dynamic lineup. Both teams are tops in their respective leagues as far as avoiding strikeouts & are gonna put the ball in play in this rubber game to determine the series winner. Still believe Bucs are vastly underrated as a team offering some good value at high numbers such as these. They've been in tough spots all season but continue to play with heart each & every game. The skip Clint Hurdle has done a fantastic job. Ill take them to win today in a high scoring affair at Minute Maid Park.
Rockies +1.5 +116 / 50 to win 58
A sweet revenge spot for the Rockies here facing off against the Dodgers at Coors Field where they have absolutely thrived winning 5 of their last 7 home series & splitting the other 2. The Dodgers will send Buehler to the mound in who absolutely destroyed this Rockies team with a complete game, 16 strikeout performance against them just a week ago. I think Rockies will find a little more success this time around considering the timeframe of the matchup if they can make Buehler work a little more & force him out the game early enough to dig into that Dodgers bullpen which has shown to be lackluster all season. The Rockies will counter once again with their promising rookie Lambert in hopes that he can replicate his solid effort from the last outing against the Dodgers. The kid doesn't have an electrifying repoirtoire by any means but does a nice job avoiding walks & keeping opponents from elevating his pitches with that solid GB% rate. Think this is a good spot for the Rockies to bounce back into form after some subpar offensive showings as of late but I'll take the run line here at a bargain price just in case Buehler is still flaming hot & a heroic late inning effort against that bullpen falls short.
Took part of my bankroll to stash into the crypto realm so I'll be cutting back from 100 dollar plays to 50 dollar plays. I'm thinking this will be just a temporary move but for whatever reason I have found more success with 50 dollar plays this season so I might have to re think the strategy going forward. Time will tell. Either way though, I have to be better at finding consistency because this rollercoaster back & forth between positive & negative units is just not acceptable. If I can't make some money doing this then I don't wanna do it. Its just not smart. With the way the crypto markets have looked it might be a better investment to fully utilize that money in those markets. Time will tell. But for one, I do enjoy breaking down the games daily & I am confident that I can find long term success with my systems. In the real world, its a adventurous type day as we are gonna head up north to do some hiking & exploring. Hell yeah. I love exploring. Young Sosa Galileo.
Went hiking in the red rocks of Sedona. The heat was gentle, the wind was soothing & the clouds were formed in the shape of almonds. Beautiful day. Came home to see my buddy Ketel Marte was selected to start the all star game. Hell yeah. Thank you world for voting him in. The kid is special & deserves this honor to represent our squad at the festivities. He is 1 homer away from the right side of the plate from being the first player in the history of the game to hit at least 10 homeruns from both sides of the plate before the all star break. Can we get him in the homerun derby too? If yes, will he get extra points if he switches back & forth between lefty/righty after each homerun? We are changing the game. Impossible is nothing. Break the code. Ketel Marte, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, Javier Baez. We are changing the goddamn game. The sport needs a spark. These guys are going to be the catalysts for a new era of baseball. Pay attention. Time to light one up & send energy waves of appreciation to the universe. The night cap you might call it. Might rewatch that Joe Rogan & Bob Lazar podcast. Bruh aliens are real? Bruh??? Wow. Coolest thing of all time.
Yanks have had the Sox number all season. They've really put a beatdown on the defending champions in their meet ups so far. With that in mind its something totally different if you get a beatdown in the states versus another country where you are looking to promote the game of baseball & encourage those people to entertain in your product. These folks probably don't have a clue just how dominant this Sox team was last season when they went on their championship run. Although their rivals the Yankees are the far superior team, I expect the defending champion Red Sox to play with some pride here & show up with something to prove for this London crowd.
Bucs TT O4.5 -110 / 55 to win 50
Bucs +150 / 50 to win 75
Feel like Davies has been exposed his last couple of starts. that blow up was a long time coming. if you dive into some of the deeper analytics you'll see that the win total & ERA had to be a fluke. he's a historically good groundball pitcher who has the highest GB% rate of his career and is giving up more hits, homeruns & walks then ever before without any spike in strikeout numbers. now he's facing off against a hot Bucs team that has been swinging the bats well lately overall & will look to steal another series win on the road here against Davies who they have already seen twice before this month. On the other side, Brault has been pitching extremely well for the Bucs since he was inserted into that starting rotation & will get another chance here to continue building his resume against a cold Brewers team that has struggled agains t lefties all season. Gimme them Pittsburgh boys here at solid price.
Fish actually look like a decent major league team now & have found some consistency in a couple of their young players along with some savvy vets. They have put up at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 7 games & should be poised to continue to inflict some damage on Arrieta who has looked no where near his Cy Young form possessing the lowest K/BB ratio since his rough Baltimore days. Even if Arrieta pitches a good game that bullpen is just not trustworthy to carry leads. Phillies have a ton of problems right now & they are losing games in a variety of ways which doesn't bode well for their chances considering they are limited with the moves they can make after renovating the roster completely this past offseason. I think Fish win the game and sweep but just in case things get messy late innings ill take the team total here & leave the outcome alone.
Mariners FF +235 / 50 to win 117.50
I like this matchup here for Gonzalez facing an Astros lineup that has been unusually struggling as of late especially against lefties. On the other side, Cole has just not been as sharp this season either especially at home where he has been liable to a couple beat downs this season already. I know Mariners are a bad team & this is playing with fire but this was just too high a number to pass on I believe considering how subpar the Astros have looked lately. They look like they have checked out for the all star break already. Gimme Gonzalez & the Mariners here to capture an early lead and get on this slumping Astros team early in the game.
tough day. just tough man. I gotta be better though. I just can't accept subpar results. it takes too much time to track games & stay in tune to not see any positive production at day's end. Im gonna dig into the tracker & see if I can find any potential room for improvement. One thing off the top of my mind is the idea to cut back on quantity & just search for the high quality plays and play those solely. I'll admit though one thing I am just not good at is identifying risk to different potential plays. if theres a trigger then theres a trigger. its hard to differentiate the confidence in one play from another really. the goal by the end of the month was to push into double digit units and we didn't reach that mark. we actually went backwards. I can accept regression to a certain degree but I will not tolerate consistent losing. doesn't make sense to keep at something if you are not progressing over time. its still such a long season though & I have to remind myself that every so often. nonetheless, gonna get back in the lab & see if we can come up with some audibles to finally push through to the end zone & put some points on the board man. Young Sosa LaDainian Tomlinson signing out.
74-69 ytd, -0.89u
Last edited by sosawestbrook; 07-01-19 at 11:02 PM.
Reason: incorrect date
If theres ever gonna be a time this juggernaut Yankees squad slows down, this would be the spot. Not necessarily going for the angle that the London trip will take a toll physically here, although I do think it is a factor. Im more concerned with a potential let down spot considering the impressive showcase of runs they put on against the defending World Champions. Not only did they embarrass their long standing rival Red Sox but they did it in dominant fashion while also promoting the game's brand and attention in a whole different country. They are the best team in baseball & that series stamped them as such. The jet lag, injuries & bravado of the Yanks should all work in favor of this disgruntled but hungry Mets team who will look to pounce on struggling pitcher James Paxton for the 2nd time this season. Ill take Mets here but gimme the run line at a decent price just in case the Yanks show up late in this game.
Cubs/Bucs U9 -110 / 55 to win 50
2 solid pitchers & guys I really like going today. Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks was in a helluva groove prior to his DL stint & was putting up some impressive numbers this season. He has the highest K/BB ratio of his career all while maintaining that high GB% rate & impeccable pitch command. He will be on an approximate 75-85 pitch count for his first game back off the DL but that doesn't concern me at all considering that amount of pitches can equate to 6 or 7 full innings with the way he pitches. Going for Bucs is Joey Musgrove who has really contributed some gem pitching performances this year. Other then a rough month of May, he's truly been dominant & ironically he reminds me a lot of Hendricks in the fact that he doesn't rely on K's to get outs & rarely gives batters a free base. He has solid numbers historically as well against this Cubs team who has gone through their fair share of struggles offensively & oddly enough have been extremely subpar on the road this season. 2 of my favorite pitchers today who can control the game, dont give up walks & dont give up the long ball. Ill take the under here in this NL central showdown.
2 pitchers going here who I believe are far better then their overall numbers indicate. Giants pitcher Tyler Beede has good stuff but just walks way too many guys. This is a good spot for him to fix that trend & capitalize against a Padres offense that strikes out at the highest rate of any NL team & is near the bottom for walks given up as well. Padres pitcher Matt Strahm has been straight filthy in some spots early on this season. If you take out the 2 outlier performances in that breakdown loss to Miami & the offensive parade during that Colorado trip, you'll find that he's been a consistent performer for the majority of his first season as a full time starter. He's another guy who rarely gives up a free base but also happens to be a strikeout machine when he's got his stuff going too. This series matchup historically produces a lot of low scoring ball games & I like another one here in the 2nd game of 3 at Petco park.
2-1 on the day for a small profit. Just wanted to make the note here so I can remind myself that it is not & never was about tasting success. Its about practicing excellence. I wanted to emphasize that because it will help me operate with a clearer perspective. I'm not gonna change up the game plan or worry about the minute details. Im just gonna continue doing what I do, stay confident in my philosophies & give maximum effort. Just gotta keep BALLIN. Gonna end the night by leaving everybody with a tune. So you can feel me just a little bit better you know. Cheers everybody
The tone for this division series in Cincy is following along with the 4 game set they just had a week ago in Milwaukee. Both teams are continuing to put runs on the board & punish each other's pitchers. Brewers pitcher Chacin has had some tough luck this year with his ERA now well over the 5 mark which is the highest of his career. He's giving up a ton of homeruns & that doesn't bode well facing off against this lethal Reds offense. He's a good pitcher though & a savvy vet so I expect him to fully take advantage of the upcoming all star break to reset his confidence & adjust any mechanical problems. On the other side, Cincy's Gray has been a reliable commodity in that vastly improved Reds starting rotation. However, his most recent couple of starts have seen some opposing batters start to elevate some of his pitches & drive the ball. He's done a terrific job keeping the ball in the park this season allowing only 9 homeruns total but 5 of those homeruns have come in the past 3 games & one of those games was against the very team he matches up with again today. Dont know who wins here but Id like to see the high scoring trend continue on.
Braves -132 / 66 to win 50
Banking solely on the fact that the Braves haven't lost a series or back to back games in over a month now. They are still the far superior team overall compared to the Phillies. I honestly dont know enough about the pitcher going for Atlanta today Bryse Wilson to have any concrete scouting report but the guy on the other side of the mound going for Philly Nick Pivetta has been hot garbage for a majority of the season. Hes had some really good showings but he's also had some dreadfully painful showings and those have def come more often for him. After tearing up the league for the entire month of June, I do expect this Braves offense to slow down somewhat going forward as witnessed yesterday when they got shutout, but they should be licking their chops at an opportunity to face Nick Pivetta today & his insane prowess giving up the long ball. Gimme the home team here to bounce back with a win & another opportunity to push forward their month long streak without losing a series.
Astros -127 / 63.50 to win 50
So here's a neat stat that I really hope doesn't blow up today because I mentioned it: Wade Miley hasn't given up more then 4 runs in any start during his 2 year tenure with the Astros which spans a total of 33 starts. Now thats a pretty impressive stat & tells me that Miley always keeps his squad within reach & gives them a fighting chance every game. Thats all you can ask for whenever you are going to battle at Coors Field. With that said, ill bank on Miley continuing his trend & his Astros teammates picking up where they left off yesterday by scoring enough runs to win the 2nd & final matchup in Colorado.
Padres -126 / 63 to win 50
Ok so this Giants lineup all of a sudden wants to explode for 10 runs every game? Did Evan Longoria sell his soul for a time machine that gave him back his hitting skills from ages ago? This is why baseball is awesome. You can't predict one of the worst offenses in the league all of a sudden flipping the switch & going on a savage run scoring 33 runs in 3 games. It helped that the Giants saw a lefty starter in 3 straight & were able to ride the same lineup which was obviously in groove facing pitchers from that side. But let me quit joking around & be real for a second. This Giants offense is still butter & gravy soft compared to the powerful Padres offense. Padres have a healthy balance of contact, power, & speed flowing through that lineup with the dynamic Fernando Tatis Jr leading the charge. Their pitching has been worrisome though considering that has been their identity for years now. I like their chances today though with the kid Cal Quantrill on the mound who has impressed me in some of his spots this year. After getting demoted to the minors & then going through a short bullpen stint, he gets another chance here to earn his keep in the rotation & should certainly pitch with some extra fire in his heart because of that. On the other side, Giants pitcher Shaun Anderson is strongly due for some form of regression real soon. A peek into some of his deeper analytics suggest that he is getting away with a lot of mistake pitches. Gonna trust this Padres offense to snap out of it here & put the works on this kid in what will be their 2nd look at him this season.
took an extended all star break but ill be back at it with some plays today if I like anything. didn't wanna bet much around the break. I think teams and players tend to pack it in a bit knowing they will finally get some rest after playing everyday for 3 straight months. its only human, so I def can understand it. time to get it going again though & start progressing towards some cash money. might start employing some diff strategies as well. was inspired by my friend John to start looking into incorporating some type of chase system. we'll see though. nothing definitive yet. see ya soon.
Originally Posted by SmokingKing
nice hit on the Snakes
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