1. 04-16-16 12:13 AM #176
    iloseagain
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    angels? same.. opened -125 moved to -150

    hou? they won.. opened -175 moved to -200

    hou was the only one to win
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  2. 04-16-16 01:36 AM #177
    pigskinhedging
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    So if I am reading this correctly just using Bookmaker against home teams


    Rockies W Line Movement for CUBS -> -200 -> -240
    Braves W Line Movement for MIA -> -185 -> -210
    TWINS W Line Movement for Angels -> +105 -> +136
    Royals W Line Movement for OAK-> -105 -> -119 (Below .20 fade threshold but close)

    PADRES L     Line Movement for D-backs -> +100 -> +133
    Detroit L Line Movement for HOU -> -175 -> -210

    So still 4 wins out of 2 here. Mostly I want to see if I am looking at this correctly. The team I first list is the team with the Line moving against them and if in caps they are the home team. Thus you'd hope that the team on the far left wins if you are fading against the line movement. Is this correct? I then show the team that is the beneficiary of the Line Movement, and finally I'm showing the line per Bookmaker which is always listed per the home team. So a home dog is a positive number in my chart (SD and Twins).
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  3. 04-16-16 10:29 AM #178
    iloseagain
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    ^^^ i have oak opening at -115 and ending around -115.. i woudnt count that one
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  4. 04-16-16 10:49 AM #179
    iloseagain
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    today twins opened at EV and now -126
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  5. 04-16-16 11:11 AM #180
    iloseagain
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    stl -175 to -143
    mia -180 to -130
    dodgers -120 to sf -109
    sd -120 to zona -107
    bal -120 to tex -112
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  6. 04-16-16 11:21 AM #181
    No coincidences
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    MIN TT over 4.5 (+110) (4U to win 4.4)
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  7. 04-16-16 11:22 AM #182
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    Quote Originally Posted by iloseagain View Post
    ^^^ i have oak opening at -115 and ending around -115.. i woudnt count that one
    You need to check your opening lines.
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  8. 04-16-16 11:24 AM #183
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    4-1, +6.32U last night
    27-17, +17.00U thread
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  9. 04-16-16 11:25 AM #184
    iloseagain
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    You need to check your opening lines.
    youre right but they opened at -105 and went to -115 then.. bookmaker open -105 end -115. 10 cents..
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  10. 04-16-16 11:27 AM #185
    Louisvillekid1
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    MIN TT over 4.5 (+110) (4U to win 4.4)
    Like this
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  11. 04-16-16 11:34 AM #186
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    Quote Originally Posted by iloseagain View Post
    youre right but they opened at -105 and went to -115 then.. bookmaker open -105 end -115. 10 cents..
    They were +106 at BOL, +102 at Pinnacle and closed at -120 at a lot of sites. Not 20 full cents across the board, but pretty close (incredible, especially because books have already been giving free money away on KC for the third year in a row).
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  12. 04-16-16 11:35 AM #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Like this
    Thanks. I'd take the Twins, but don't trust Nolasco and hate taking a favorite that opened as a dog.
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  13. 04-16-16 11:39 AM #188
    twestacott
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    Coiner whats you thoughts on Miami? Openned as -180 and now down to -133 at a lot of books. RedSox dropping as well from -150 to -133 at a lot of books.
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  14. 04-16-16 11:40 AM #189
    StackinGreen
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    Under city

    Looks like you're doing well though, NoCoin, keep it up
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  15. 04-16-16 12:03 PM #190
    KRIT
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    MIN TT over 4.5 (+110) (4U to win 4.4)
    Was going to play Twins but not feeling laying -120 with them so I'm gonna take your Twins TT over. GL to us. You playing much of the NBA playoffs? Don't think I saw your thread over there.
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  16. 04-16-16 12:09 PM #191
    BigDofBA
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    St. Louis went from -179 to -133.

    That means the Cardinals have to be a play.....

    Wainwright shouldn't be juiced bc he just isn't the pitcher he used to be but that's too much line movement imo.

    I'm also on the Twins again today.
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  17. 04-16-16 12:13 PM #192
    iloseagain
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    St. Louis went from -179 to -133.

    That means the Cardinals have to be a play.....

    Wainwright shouldn't be juiced bc he just isn't the pitcher he used to be but that's too much line movement imo.

    I'm also on the Twins again today.
    im just curious as to what the theory is behind playing against these huge line movements? i always thought it was smart to play the other way..
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  18. 04-16-16 12:16 PM #193
    pigskinhedging
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Thanks. I'd take the Twins, but don't trust Nolasco and hate taking a favorite that opened as a dog.
    I am just looking at Covers main page I'll check Bookmaker but wouldn't the pick here be fading the Twins? Bookmaker opened at +100 (EV) and is now -120. Given that you like the TT for the Twins, Game Total and Angels on Money Line might be good picks as well although for me I don't know how much I want to throw at this one.
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  19. 04-16-16 12:25 PM #194
    pigskinhedging
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    Depending on who's book you use to track there is also line movement for the Cubs of greater than .20 which is mind-boggling given that they are laying over 300. So based on my quick check you could add these teams to the picks:

    LAA
    COL
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  20. 04-16-16 12:28 PM #195
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by iloseagain View Post
    im just curious as to what the theory is behind playing against these huge line movements? i always thought it was smart to play the other way..
    I'm 4-0 fading these this year. I can't explain it but I'm going to roll with it until it stops winning.
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  21. 04-16-16 12:33 PM #196
    iloseagain
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    I'm 4-0 fading these this year. I can't explain it but I'm going to roll with it until it stops winning.
    haha fair enough.. quite a few today.. GL
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  22. 04-16-16 12:36 PM #197
    iloseagain
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    stl/mia/laa/bos/bal parlay.. fading all those movements.. lets see what happens. 1x pays 21.8x
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  23. 04-16-16 02:32 PM #198
    pigskinhedging
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    Quote Originally Posted by iloseagain View Post
    stl/mia/laa/bos/bal parlay.. fading all those movements.. lets see what happens. 1x pays 21.8x

    KC Royals... Oak line moved from -110 -> -147
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  24. 04-16-16 02:35 PM #199
    twestacott
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    Quote Originally Posted by pigskinhedging View Post
    KC Royals... Oak line moved from -110 -> -147
    That's due to pitching change though. Sonny Gray is now the starter so does not apply.
    Points Awarded:

    mlb gave twestacott 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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  25. 04-16-16 03:07 PM #200
    BigDofBA
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    Twins have had several chances to have big innings but can't get guys home from 2nd and 3rd with one out.
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  26. 04-16-16 03:22 PM #201
    iloseagain
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    damn min had the chance last inning.. 2nd and 3rd no outs and they couldnt do it
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  27. 04-16-16 03:54 PM #202
    BigDofBA
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    Really needed that Homer by the Twins. Whewwww
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  28. 04-16-16 04:33 PM #203
    pigskinhedging
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    Quote Originally Posted by twestacott View Post
    That's due to pitching change though. Sonny Gray is now the starter so does not apply.
    Shit I missed that. So if there is any pitching change at all, scratch it? Or does the pitching change have to be one way or the other or just any change at all? Royals are screwing up a Parlay I have with Boston ML and Golden State -13. 4 more ABs but damn I wouldn't have included them.
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  29. 04-16-16 04:59 PM #204
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by pigskinhedging View Post
    Shit I missed that. So if there is any pitching change at all, scratch it? Or does the pitching change have to be one way or the other or just any change at all? Royals are screwing up a Parlay I have with Boston ML and Golden State -13. 4 more ABs but damn I wouldn't have included them.
    Just because a line moves more than 20 cents doesn't mean you need to lose your mind and bet the farm.

    With that said, I've been trying to make 1-2 unit bets when I notice it and I have been very successful. Even when I see it and don't play it, fading the line movement seems to win a lot more than it should.

    It's just a trend I have notice. Coin can vouch for it as well.
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  30. 04-17-16 11:13 AM #205
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    1-0, +4.4U yesterday
    28-17, +21.4U thread

    PHI +130 (3U to win 3.9)
    SEA +121 (2U to win 2.42)
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  31. 04-17-16 11:33 AM #206
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    HOU -125 (2.5U to win 2)
    COL +1.5 (+100) (1U to win 1)
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  32. 04-17-16 12:10 PM #207
    mlb
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    These Wrigley lines are already insane less than 2 weeks into the season. A lot of season left to be -250+ every game.
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  33. 04-17-16 12:18 PM #208
    BigDofBA
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    WTH happened to Kluber?

    He can't get anyone out now.
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  34. 04-17-16 12:24 PM #209
    Breadloser
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    The Mets won't score for the rest of the day. Matz will get bombed. Get on Cleveland +400
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  35. 04-17-16 12:43 PM #210
    iloseagain
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    WTH happened to Kluber?

    He can't get anyone out now.
    unreal.. given up 6 already
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