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Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.
1st Game, 6/05/2014 - Twins - 1 to win 1.10 - LOSS
2nd Game, 06/06/2014 - Diamondbacks -1 to win 1.06 - LOSS
3rd Game, 06/07/2014- Phillies -1 to win 1.30 - LOSS
New Updated Record 15-13, Units +1.91 (all games are for one unit unless specified).
Sunday 06/08/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Jaime Garcia (R) (1-0) 5.47 ERA vs. Drew Hutchison (R) (4-3) 3.50 ERA
Today we try to break out of our three game losing streak, and we do with an early Sunday game. Game three between the Cardinals visiting the Blue Jays. Left handed Jaime Garcia takes the mound for the Cards to combat the Blue Jays’ 23 year old right handed, Drew Hutchison. Game three, the rubber matchup and our attempt to break the three game skid.
Jaime Garcia has a 1-0 record in four starts with a 5.47 ERA, and he is coming off of his worst start of the season against Kansas City going five innings and giving up six earned, earning his worst GSc (pitcher’s game score) yet a 30. Although it’s a small sample size, Jaime’s LOB% leaves plenty of room for improvement at 57.9%, his FIP is 4.17 (over a run better than his ERA), and his xFIP projects him at 2.60. Drew Hutchison holds a 4-3 record with a 3.50 ERA and is coming off of one his best performances of the season, going seven innings giving up three hits and no earned runs. He earned his second highest GSc of the season with a score of 78. Hutchison’s FIP is 3.64 slightly higher than his ERA, and his xFIP projects him at 3.80. Hutchison has had twelve starts this season and has a BaBIP of .276 and his LOB% is 77.5% leaving room for error.
Hutchinson has only had four starts at home this season despite having twelve starts. Over these four games Drew is 1-2 and his ERA is 7.72. Meanwhile, Jaime’s only win so far this season has been in his only road start. The Blue Jays are hitting .125 against lefties over their last five games, while the Cards are hitting .244 against righties their last five. Rogers Centre in Toronto, Canada, is rated third in home runs, partially due to the Blue Jays leading the league in homeruns with 89. Hutchison has a GB% of 36.5% making him a dangerous liability in this ballpark.
Jaime Garcia’s stock is low at the moment and his xFIP is impressive even if it is only through four. Hutchison’s stock is high at the moment coming off a great performance but he is yet to prove he can be successful at home. Although the Blue Jays have hit lefties well, they have struggled mightily against lefties recently.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Cardinals +125
CK,
You provide great analysis; I think it is fantastic. However, many times after reading your analysis I come to an opposite conclusion. For example, expecting one pitcher to improve and the other to regress at the same time seems a little suspect.
I really do think your analysis is great though; keep it coming!
Last edited by incognitoh; 06-08-14 at 03:04 AM.
Monday 06/09/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants
Stephen Strasburg (R) (5-4) 3.10 ERA vs. Ryan Vogelsong (R) (4-2) 3.39 ERA
Late night game tonight after winning an early game yesterday. Today’s game has a 10:00PM (EST) start in San Francisco as the Giants host the Washington Nationals. Stephen Strasburg takes the hill for the Nats to take on the Giant’s Ryan Vogelsong. Game one of this a four game series starts tonight and it is our Square Play of the Day.
Strasburg comes into tonight’s contest with a 5-4 record and a 3.10 ERA. Strasburg’s FIP is better than his ERA at 2.82 and his xFIP projects him better than his ERA as well at 2.46. His BaBIP is very high at .358 considering his low FIP, and his LOB% is right around where it should be at 69.7%. Vogelsong holds a 4-2 record and a 3.39 ERA. His FIP is 3.87 which is higher than his ERA, and his xFIP projects him at 4.02, even higher than his FIP. Vogelsong’s BaBIP is right around where it should be at .297, but his LOB% is very vulnerable at 80.5%.
Strasburg is 2-0 against the Giants with a 1.89 ERA, while Vogelsong is 1-1 with an 8.73 ERA against the Nats. Although we are all aware of the Giant bats and what they are capable of, averaging .317 against righties their last five, but the Nats have found their bats on this road trip thus far averaging 5.20 runs per nine innings (last five against righties). Out of 60 total at bats the Giant players are only hitting .233 against Strasburg. Out of 56 at bats the National players are hitting .339 against Vogelsong.
This matchup has lost some value as the Nationals opened up at only -115 and are now -125. The Giants are the best team in the league but this spot is good for Strasburg who has been very good this season despite misfortunes, while we’ve seen Vogelsong has had more balls bounce his way, but has not been as solid of a pitcher based on the FIP and the other stats we mentioned. Both pitchers are flyball pitchers the Giants hit 69 home runs this year, the Nationals have 59, but according to ESPN’s Park Factors AT&T Park is 29th in the league in homeruns, only above Nationals Park which is rated 30th. We are basing this contest off of the starting pitching matchup, give me Strasburg.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Nationals -125
My square play today:
Rays -182
Tuesday 06/10/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
Josh Beckett (R) (3-3) 2.57 ERA vs. Mike Leake (R) (3-5) 3.29 ERA
Today we try for another three game winning streak after cashing in on the Nats last night in a big way with a 9-2 victory. Today’s matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers visiting the Cincinnati Reds for game two of their four game series. Right handed Josh Beckett gets the start today going up against fellow righty Mike Leake.
We will start with Leake who has a 3-5 record with a 3.29 ERA. He has an FIP slightly higher at 3.75 and his xFIP is also slightly higher at 3.40. Leake’s BaBIP is a little low at .271, but his LOB% is right around where it should be at 75.5%. Josh Becket holds a 3-3 record with a 2.57 ERA. His FIP is over a run higher (almost two runs higher) at 4.31, and his xFIP also has him over a run higher at 3.59. Beckett’s BaBIP is pretty low at .240, and his LOB% is extremely high at 88.9% through his 11 starts.
Great American Ball Park is second in the league in homeruns according to ESPN Park Factors. Although the Dodgers have more homeruns with 62 to the Reds’ 53, Leake has a GB% of 57.1% compared to Beckett’s 45.5%. Leake has a high HR/FB ratio of 14%, but again his home ballpark is second in the league in homeruns. Beckett’s home field is 9th in homeruns, but his HR/FB ratio is actually higher at 16.1%. Leake is coming off of his worst start of the year against the Giants earning a 36 GSc (pitcher’s game score). The public believes Josh Beckett is a completely revived man after throwing his no hitter earlier this season.
After a win the Dodgers are 13-20 and Beckett against the Reds, although he hasn’t faced them since 2008, holds a 1-2 record with 7.07 ERA and a WHIP of 1.571. Leake against the Dodgers is 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA and a WHIP 1.156. We look for Leake to come out strong after his worst performance of the season. We also look for Beckett to start to give up base runners, and runs due to his numbers. Beckett’s stock is high, and Leake’s is very low, I would have liked to have seen the Reds as dogs but if the books don’t want to make them bigger dogs there must be a reason.
Note: The Reds are averaging only .209 against righties their last five, but are still averaging 4.56 runs per nine innings against righties over their last five.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Reds - 105
Good call on Nats, the one time I go against you I lose... keep it up!
Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.
1st Game, 6/08/2014 - Cardinals - 1 to win 1.25 - WIN
2nd Game, 06/09/2014 - Nationals -1.25 to win 1 - WIN
3rd Game, 06/10/2014- Reds -1.05 to win 1 - LOSS
New Updated Record 17-14, Units +3.11 (all games are for one unit unless specified).
Wednesday 06/11/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
Julio Teheran (R) (6-3) 1.89 ERA vs. Tyler Matzek (R) (0-0) 0.00 ERA
Ugly loss yesterday but today we try to make up for it. Last night the Braves and the Rockies put up a football score that saw Atlanta winning 13-10 after putting up a seven spot in the first inning. Today we look at game two as Julio Teheran goes up for the Braves against Tyler Matzek, a lefty making his MLB debut. Tonight’s game is taking place at Coors Field in Colorado, first in runs and fourth in homeruns.
Julio is 6-3 on the year with an impressive 1.89 ERA. Julio’s FIP is over a run higher at 3.66 and his xFIP predicts him at 3.86. His BaBIP is very low at .215 and his LOB% is very high at 87.5%, we have been waiting for this bubble to burst. Julio is a definite flyball pitcher with a GB% of 38.9%, any flyball pitcher in a park like Coor’s field is dangerous.
Although the Braves did put up 13 runs last night, they also gave up ten; the Braves are 0-1 this season after giving up ten runs, 1-8 over the last three years. We won’t ignore that Teheran has been terrific against the Rockies going 3-0 lifetime with an ERA of 1.00, including a shutout earlier this season in Atlanta. One of those starts were in Colorado last year. What the Braves need to be concerned with is the fact that they are hitting .213 against lefties over their last ten averaging only 2.13 runs per nine innings. If we break it down to their last five against lefties, they are averaging only .195. We compare this to their stats against righties over their last five, .296 averaging 6.50.
The Rockies are playing horrible as of late there’s no question but the Rockies are home where they are comfortable with high scores. They put up 10 runs in a comeback effort and fell short but for them scoring 10 was a nice jolt for their struggling offense. Although Teheran has been great, I do not feel comfortable taking a flyball pitcher in a homerun ballpark with a team backing him that is struggling against left handed pitching. This game could be a lot more level than it seems, especially with that big stat bubble around Teheran, I would rather have the home dog in this matchup.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Rockies +130
You go with Matzek? This guy hasn't done too well @ AAA either as far as stats tell. 4.05 ERA, 9.4 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.2 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 4.71 FIP. And how come you say that the Braves struggle against LHP? Look here: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...rs=0&sort=16,d They have the highest wRC+ of ALL MLB teams against LHP. In 2014 they are averaging 4.3 runs per game when facing a lefty starter, while they only average 3.5 when the opponent's starter is a righty. Where did your stats come from?
Last edited by posey; 06-11-14 at 11:25 AM.
I was more so playing against Teheran, and I said the Braves haven't hit lefties well over their last TEN games.Originally Posted by posey
Thursday 06/12/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Max Scherzer (R) (7-2) 3.38 ERA vs. Chris Sale (L) (5-0) 2.06 ERA
Today’s Square Play of the Day is in Chicago as the Tigers and White Sox finish up their series with game three. 2013 American League Cy Young winner Max Scherzer takes the mound against 25 year old White Sox sensation, lefty, Chris Sale. The Tigers look to avoid a sweep from the White Sox after a 6-5 loss in game one, and an 8-2 loss last night in game two.
Max Scherzer is no stranger to MLB fans across the country after his impressive 2013 season. This year after starting out strong, Scherzer has hit a serious rough patch over his last four games giving up at least 8 hits and 4 runs over that stretch. His record so far this season is 7-2 with a 3.38 ERA. Scherzer’s FIP is currently 3.11 and his xFIP puts him at 3.26, both numbers we see are lower than his ERA. His BaBIP is a little high at .330 and his LOB% is a little high at 79.7%. His opponent Chris Sale holds an impressive 2.06 ERA and 5-0 record over eight starts this season. Sale’s FIP is 2.19 and his xFIP is 2.56 although they are higher than his ERA, still impressive. Sale’s LOB% is right where it should be at 72.3%, where we are concerned is it appears Sale has been fortunate with a BaBIP average of only .193.
The Tigers are 11-7 this year against lefties after losing to John Danks last night. Over their previous five versus lefties they are averaging .367 with a 7.24 runs per nine innings average. The White Sox are hitting righties well over their last five averaging a batting average of .304 and a runs per nine inning average of 6.83. Scherzer is 10-5 lifetime against the White Sox with a 2.57 ERA, Sale is 3-4 lifetime against the Tigers with a 3.14 ERA.
While I will agree the White Sox have been playing good ball and the Tigers have not, I do believe the Tigers will want this game more (avoiding the sweep). As far as value, I understand the why Sale is favored since he has been playing well and Scherzer has not, but Sale was a dog in his last three games against the Tigers while Scherzer was a favorite of no less than -165 in his last three against the White Sox. If we combine that with a dangerously low BaBIP for Sale of .193 and the way Tigers usually hit lefties, we see the value with Scherzer as a dog here in what is a truly square play.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Tigers +110
Friday 06/13/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Jordan Zimmerman @ Lance Lynn
Jordan Zimmerman (R) (5-2) 3.17 ERA vs. Lance Lynn (R) (6-4) 3.49 ERA
Tonight our Square Play of the Day comes from St. Louis, Missouri as the Washington Nationals pay a visit to the Cardinals. The Nationals are in the midst of a ten game road trip that they finish with three games here in St. Louis. The Cardinals had the day off after returning home from a seven game road trip of their own, and Jordan Zimmerman takes the hill for the Nats to combat the Cardinal’s Lance Lynn.
Jordan Zimmerman is coming off his best performance possibly of his career throwing a complete game shutout with 12 strikeouts, two hits and 0 runs against the San Diego Padres earning an incredible 95 GSc (pitcher’s game score). Zimmerman holds a 5-2 record and a 3.17 ERA. His FIP is 2.87 and his xFIP, 3.23. His BaBIP is actually high at .332, and his LOB% is right where it should be at 73.6%, he is having a great season and has earned it. We compare him to Lance Lynn who is 6-4 with a 3.49 ERA. Lynn’s FIP is 3.62 and his xFIP puts him at 3.96 as we see him trotting into his true form. His BaBIP is right where it should be at .306 and his LOB% is as well at 75.3%.
Although this spot would appear like good one for Zimmerman, he is coming off two games where he threw over 100 pitches; 114 in his last start, 102 in the previous start. This was his first time all season throwing over 100 pitches back to back and his two highest game scores of the season. We have to figure to see the Nat bullpen have a role in this game, a bullpen who has been solid but is coming off of a game where they gave up five runs late to the Giants. Again the Nationals have played seven road games, they haven’t had a day off since June 2nd. The Cardinals just had a day off after returning home from their road trip and should be rejuvenated.
The Nationals you have to figure to be fatigued, and have had a great road trip already thus far. They knew to step up their game against the team with best record in baseball; now playing a team historically good but are currently desperate for answers. The Cardinals finished their road trip strong and after a much needed day off we expect them to want to get ahead in this series at home. We have seen fatigue play a huge factor in good teams starting to lose so far this season, the Nats gave us a preview of it yesterday not being able to take the lead after trailing 2-1 most of the game, despite getting runners on.
Note: Zimmerman 0-5 against St. Louis with a 7.59 ERA and a WHIP of 1.547. Lynn is 2-0 against Nationals with a 4.09 ERA and a WHIP of 1.364.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Cardinals - 105
Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.
1st Game, 6/11/2014 - Rockies - 1 to win 1.30 - WIN
2nd Game, 06/12/2014 - Tigers -1 to win 1.10 - WIN
3rd Game, 06/13/2014- Cardinals -1.05 to win 1 - WIN
New Updated Record 20-14, Units +6.51 (all games are for one unit unless specified).
Nice analysis and nice job, CK!!! Keep it going!
Saturday 06/14/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Stephen Strasburg @ Shelby Miller
Stephen Strasburg (R) (6-4) 2.99 ERA vs. Shelby Miller (R) (7-5) 3.59 ERA
Today we look to make it four in a row after a 1-0 win in St. Louis last night as the Cardinals beat Washington. Last night’s game was the difference of one big hit, a home run from Matt Adams. Today we have Stephen Strasburg taking the hill for the Nats in game two, to combat the Cardinal’s Shelby Miller. We stick with this series for today’s Saturday edition of the Square Play of the Day.
Stephen Strasburg has been solid in his recent starts. This season his record is 6-4 and he has a solid 2.99 ERA. His FIP is even lower at 2.29 and his xFIP is also lower than his ERA at 2.39. His BaBIP is very high a .354 showing us he has not been lucky, he has been solid and his LOB% is 69.9%, slightly low. Shelby Miller holds a 7-5 record with a 3.59 ERA. His FIP is over a run higher at 4.78 and his xFIP is also over a run higher at 4.63. Shelby’s BaBIP is low at .254, and his LOB% is very high at 80%; seems as though Shelby has been pretty fortunate.
While Strasburg’s last three games were solid with over a 60 GSc (pitcher’s game score) in each, he has also been more consistent this year and seems to be in a grove. Shelby is coming off of his best start of the season throwing a complete game, three hit, shut-out against the Toronto Blue Jays. His GSc was 85, however he has been very inconsistent this year and unlike Strasburg who seems to be in a rhythm, Miller is erratic and may be in a let-down spot situation.
We can’t ignore that Strasburg has struggled on the road this season with an ERA of 4.25 of the road through six games. Miller has actually been better on the road than at home, his home ERA is 4.17 through six home starts. We also can’t ignore that the Nationals as 2-8 on Saturdays, the Cardinals are 7-3 on Saturdays. What we are playing on today is the response, meaning the Nationals are 3-1 after being shut-out, the Cards are 4-9 after shutting out their opponent. The Cardinal bats didn’t really wake up and although we played the Nats being tired, they have had the night to settle and rest for their next two games and we are going with the square bet today.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Nationals -130
Last edited by Ck013; 06-14-14 at 10:14 AM.
Sunday 06/15/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
Mike Leake (R) (3-6) 3.61 ERA vs. Marco Estrada (R) (5-3) 4.56 ERA
The Nationals just couldn’t get it going yesterday as we had our three game winning streak snapped. We will try to get a win on today’s Father’s Day edition of the Square Play of the Day. Cincinnati finishes their three game series against Milwaukee, as Mike Leake of the Reds, take on Marco Estrada of the Brewers. Reds and Brewers rubber game of the series.
Mike Leake holds a 3-6 record with a 3.61 ERA. His FIP stands at 3.59 and his xFIP predicts him at 3.32. Leake’s BaBIP is a tad low at .288 and his LOB% is right where it should be at 72.8%. Marco Estrada is 5-3 with a 4.56 ERA. His FIP is over a run higher than his ERA at 5.68 but his xFIP has him at 4.19. His BaBIP is very low at .238 and his LOB% is very high at 81.4%, a dangerous combination.
One advantage Leake has is that he is a groundball pitcher, his GB% is 56.9%. Estrada has a GB% of 36.5% making him a flyball pitcher. Both pitchers have played horribly over their last three starts, and both pitchers will be looking to improve today. Both teams are 7-3 on Sundays, and are both coming off bad starts.
We will look for Leake to take some control over this game. His underlying numbers are much better and he looks to be in a better place. Marco Estrada has been playing bad, but his numbers suggest that he is not done playing bad yet. Brandon Phillips is 7 for 21 against Estrada and today we look for the Reds to take the series today.
The Square Play of the Day, the Reds +110
Fully agree on this one with you. Estrada's xFIP over the last 30 days is even 5.04 and his WHIP is 1.42 over this time span, compared to 1.22 overall for the season. His LOB numbers already went down, as he only had a LOB% of 72.4 over the last 30 days. His K/BB numbers have dropped, too.
BOL.
Good info Posey.
Monday 06/16/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians
Jered Weaver (R) (7-5) 3.51 ERA vs. Trevor Bauer (R) (1-3) 4.24 ERA
The Reds gave us a spectacular offensive performance, giving us the win in a big way yesterday. Today we follow up with the Angels visiting the Cleveland Indians for game one of their four game series in Cleveland. Jered Weaver takes the mound for the Angels to take on 23 year old Trevor Bauer and the Tribe.
Jered Weaver comes into today with a 7-5 record and a 3.51 ERA. His FIP is almost a run higher than his ERA at 4.31 and his xFIP predicts him at 4.37. Jered’s LOB% is a little high at 77.9% and his BaBIP is low at .254, not a good combination through 14 starts. Trevor Bauer, through six starts, is 1-3 with a 4.24 ERA. Although it’s a much smaller sample size, Trevor’s FIP is 4.03 which isn’t great but actually better than Weaver’s, and his xFIP predicts him at 3.64. His LOB% is right around where it should be at 74.4% and his BaBIP is right around where it should be at .315.
After dropping two of their three games to the Braves in Atlanta, the Angel bullpen comes limping into Cleveland. In game two we watched their bullpen collapse blowing a four run lead in the bottom of the 9th inning in a 13 inning win. Sunday Night Baseball, we watched the bullpen surrender three more runs allowing Atlanta to run away with lead. Cleveland returns home after a 10 game road trip ending with a split of a four game series against the Boston Red Sox. After going 5-5 in what the MLB considers a successful road trip, the Indians are happy to come home to their 21-11 home record. Although Cleveland is only hitting .222 against righties their last five, they were on the road their last ten. While the Angels are hitting better their last five with a .254, their bullpen ERA over their last five is currently 4.63, a major concern.
Weaver’s road ERA is almost a half-run higher than his season ERA, Bauer’s home ERA is 2.50 much better than his 4.24 season ERA. We are not saying that Bauer is a better pitcher than Weaver by any stretch, but we like this particular matchup in this situation. We also believe that the initial perception of Weaver versus Bauer at -120 will lead to the public lean on the Angels, giving us some value with the home dog Indians.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Indians +106
Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.
1st Game, 6/14/2014 - Nationals - 1.30 to win 1 - LOSS
2nd Game, 06/15/2014 - Reds -1 to win 1.10 - WIN
3rd Game, 06/16/2014- Indians -1 to win 1.06 - WIN
New Updated Record 22-15, Units +7.37 (all games are for one unit unless specified).
Tuesday 06/17/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Johnny Cueto (R) (6-5) 1.85 ERA vs. Brandon Cumpton (R) (2-2) 6.06 ERA
Close call last night but the Indians got it done giving us the win. In today’s matchup we are looking into game one of a three game series between the Reds and the Pirates, in Pittsburgh. Both teams are coming off of a day off, and the Pirates are returning but home only for this series. Johnny Cueto takes the hill for the Reds to take on Brandon Cumpton and the Pirates.
Johnny Cueto has had a terrific season thus far while Cumpton makes only his seventh start in what has been an up and down 2014. Johnny Cueto holds a 6-5 record and a 1.85 ERA. His FIP is 2.76 and his xFIP is 2.72, although these numbers are higher than his ERA portrays, they are still impressive. The concern is his BaBIP is still dangerously low at .202 and his LOB% is high at 79.7% another scary situation. Cumpton is 2-2 with a 6.06 ERA. His FIP is actually 3.45 and his xFIP has him at 4.21, not as impressive as Cueto’s but a lot better than his ERA shows. His BaBIP is very high at .353 and his LOB% is very low at 57.8%, he has been very unfortunate thus far.
While PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is 8th in the league in runs (according to ESPN Park Factors), it is also 27th in homeruns. It seems as though this ballpark is going to favor the team with most hits, the Pirates are 11th in the league with 621 while the Reds are 28th in the league with 547. At home, the Pirates are averaging .273, we compare this to their .259 record overall. The Reds are averaging .244 on the road, with only a .294 on base percentage (Pirates home OBP is .339).
What happens if bullpens come into the picture? Pittsburgh’s bullpen at home has a 2.86 ERA, while the Red bullpen has a road ERA of 4.36. This situation does not seem like a good one for Cueto and his Reds. With his BaBIP average so low, he is vulnerable to have some misfortune blown his way and his offense is in a ballpark that does not play to their strengths. Should he have a great outing, will he get the runs support and/or will his bullpen hold the lead? Cumpton has been inconsistent but has shown he can play, the Pirate bullpen has been solid and the Pirates hit well at home.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Pirates +110
Wednesday 06/18/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Mark Buehrle (L) (10-3) 2.28 ERA vs. Chase Whitley (R) (2-0) 2.41 ERA
After a tough one run loss, we move on with today’s Square Play of the Day. Today we look at the Toronto Blue Jays visiting the New York Yankees in game two of their three game series. Yankees took game one last night with Tanaka on the hill. Today the Blue Jays send their ace left-hander Mark Buehrle, to take on the New York Yankees’ Chase Whitley.
Mark Buehrle is 10-3 with a 2.28 ERA, but his FIP is over a run higher at 3.37 and his xFIP predicts him even higher at 4.21. His BaBIP is low at .287 and his LOB% is high at 81% through his 14 starts this year. Chase Whitley 2-0 with a 2.41 ERA but only through six starts. His FIP is not far from his ERA at 2.59, and his xFIP is better than Buehrle’s at 3.83. Whitley does have a low BaBIP and higher LOB% but he has only had six starts giving him more of a margin. Where Chase has another advantage is in the walks department as Buehrle averages 2.47 walks per game and Chase averages 0.80.
The Blue Jays are hitting .230 against righties over their last five while the Yankees are hitting .286 against lefties their last five. The Yankees are also averaging over 6 runs per nine innings against lefties over their last five. The Blue Jays are 2-5 their last seven, the Yankees are 5-2, we noticed the Blue Jays have fallen into a bit of rut. Out of 395 at-bats the Yankees are hitting .314 against Buehrle.
Chase Whitely has only had one start at home this season and will be looking to impress the home crowd. This matchup is a good one for the Yankees when we combine Buerhle’s BaBIP and his LOB% to the Yankees hitting versus lefties. Not to mention, Buehrle is 1-10 against the Yankees with a 6.02 ERA, his team’s record is 1-15.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Yankees -105
Thursday 06/19/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
David Buchanan (R) (2-3) 5.97 ERA vs. Shelby Miller (R) (7-5) 3.42 ERA
After a comfortable victory last night we move on with Thursday’s edition of the Square Play of the Day. Tonight’s matchup, the Philadelphia Phillies continue their road trip visiting the St. Louis Cardinals. David Buchanan goes for the Fightin’ Phils, taking of Shelby Miller of the Cardinals. Game one of their four game series.
David Buchanan is 2-3 with a 5.97 ERA thus far. While he has only had five starts, his FIP is slightly better than his ERA at 5.43 and his xFIP predicts him at a much improved 3.66. His BaBIP is a.297 right around where it should be, and his LOB% is low at 66.2% leaving room for improvement. While the sample size is low for Buchanan (only five starts) we look at Shelby Miller. Miller is 7-5 with a 3.42 ERA, his FIP is a run higher at 4.64 and his xFIP predicts him at 4.58. Shelby’s BaBIP is low at .254 and his LOB% is high at 80.6% creating a bubble of danger around him.
The Philadelphia Phillies are coming in off a three game sweep of the Atlanta Braves in Atlanta. The Phillies are averaging .306 and 6.69 runs per nine innings over their last five games against righties. They also hit better on the road averaging .258 in road games compared to their .243 overall average. Both teams have had solid bullpens over each of their last five, the Phils’ bullpen ERA is 1.12 and the Cards 2.35.
The main point of today’s play is the bubble around Shelby Miller. His FIP is over a run higher and his xFIP predicts he will remain higher, along with his BaBIP being so low and his LOB% being high we feel the hot bats of the Phils can really burst that bubble. A pitcher with a bubble like this at -190 to -200 is never a good idea, give me the Fightin’ Phils at +165.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Phillies +165
Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.
1st Game, 6/17/2014 - Pirates - 1 to win 1.10 - LOSS
2nd Game, 06/18/2014 - Yankees -1.05 to win 1 - WIN
3rd Game, 06/19/2014- Phillies -1 to win 1.65 - WIN
New Updated Record 24-16, Units +9.02 (all games are for one unit unless specified).
Friday 06/20/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies
Marco Estrada (R) (5-4) 4.82 ERA vs. Christian Bergman (R) (0-1) 3.75 ERA
Last night we had a nice hit on a +165 dog, the Phillies. Today we look to continue the momentum in a game one matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers visiting the Colorado Rockies. The Brewers coming into Colorado after taking three of four from the Diamondbacks in Arizona, while the Rockies are coming off of a day off. The Brewers send Marco Estrada to combat with the Rockies’ rookie, 26 year old Christian Bergman.
Christian Bergman is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA thus far through only two starts, a very small sample size where we ignore the numbers. Marco Estrada is 5-4 with a 4.82 ERA through 14 starts. His FIP is over a run higher than his ERA at 5.92 and his xFIP predicts him at 4.25, still pretty high. The Brewers have lost the last three games Estrada has started, his BaBIP is still low at .242 and his LOB% is still very high at 81.3% yet another bubble.
After sweeping the Giants in San Francisco, the Rockies were swept by the Dodgers in Los Angeles. The Rockies are 15-24 on the road, but 19-14 at home. Estrada is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA against the Rockies in the two games he has played against them, however he has not pitched in Colorado yet. This start could be a rough debut in Coors Field for Estrada; the Rockies are second in the league in homeruns, Coors Field is fourth in the league in homeruns, and first in the league in runs. Another issue Estrada may have is his GB/FB ratio which is at 33.9% making him a definite flyball pitcher and his HR/FB% is at 18.7%, pretty high through 14 starts.
The Brewers haven’t had a day off since June 9th, and it was not a true day off, but a rain postponement in Citi Field against the Mets. The Rockies are coming in off of what most MLB teams consider a successful road trip going 3-3 against two of baseball’s best. We don’t see Estrada being very successful, and we could see a little fatigue in the Brewer bats, and bullpens. The Rockies have the bats, the field, and the rest needed to take advantage and burst that Estrada bubble even more.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Rockies -110
I don't like the Rockies, but I like them more than the Dodgers and I like your reasoning and analysis. BOL 2 u.
Saturday 06/21/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Bud Norris (R) (6-5) 3.73 ERA vs. Vidal Nuno (L) (1-3) 5.90 ERA
The Rockies’ pitchers just couldn’t hold it together last night. Even though the Rockies scored ten runs, they lost to Brewers who scored 13. Today we look at an early game, game two of the Baltimore Orioles visiting the New York Yankees. Orioles send out Bud Norris to combat with the Yankees’ Vidal Nuno, a 1PM battle in the Bronx.
Vidal Nuno has been a sore spot in the Yankees starting lineup all season. Through 11 starts he is 1-3 with a 5.90 ERA. There are a few positives however, his FIP is slightly lower at 5.17, and his xFIP predicts him at 4.30 over a run and half better than his ERA now. His BaBIP is right around where it should be and his LOB% is very low at 64.7, leaving room for improvement. Vidal is coming off if his worst GSc (pitcher’s game score) performance of the season earning a 12. He went three innings in Oakland giving up 8 hits and 8 runs. Vidal will look to prove he is a major league pitcher at home against a division rival.
Bud Norris is 6-5 with a 3.73 ERA, his FIP is higher at 4.43 and his xFIP predicts him at 4.42. It seems as though he should start to trend down, perhaps with his low BaBIP average of .257. Although his LOB% is slightly high at 76.8%, the BaBIP is what the Yankees will try to take advantage of. Another advantage perhaps is the day time setting, the Yankees have enjoyed their day games going 15-8 while the Orioles have survived them at 13-14. The Yankees are also on a four game winning streak, all four games won here in Yankee Stadium.
Although the Orioles have a better overall average against lefties than they do righties, they are only 9-10 against lefties this season. Nuno and Norris have never face each other’s teams, and Norris has been more vulnerable on the road with a 5.23 road ERA compared to that 3.73 overall ERA. I like this spot for the Yankees and see a lot of value with the hot team giving the ball to a pitcher who is desperate to prove he belongs.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Yankees - 108
Sunday 06/22/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
Ervin Santana (R) (5-4) 4.12 ERA vs. Tanner Roark (R) (6-4) 2.85 ERA
After our second straight loss we look to right the ship in Sunday’s edition of the Square Play of the Day. Sunday’s matchup features the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals in the final game of their series, game four. Tanner Roark takes the hill for the Nationals to take on Ervin Santana and the Atlanta Braves.
Tanner Roark has been great thus far for the Nats with a 6-4 record and a 2.85 ERA. His FIP is higher at 3.37 and his xFIP is 3.74, although not drastic is does draw a little concern. His BaBIP is low at .272, and his LOB% high at 79% giving us more reason to be weary. Ervin Santana holds a 5-4 record with a 4.12 ERA. Santana’s FIP is 3.55 and his xFIP is even better at 3.38, giving hope he will improve. His BaBIP is high a .318 and his LOB% is a tad low at 70.6%, this also shows he should improve over time.
In the last 31 meetings between these two teams the Braves are 24-7. Regardless of where they are in the standings the Braves seem to have the Nationals number. Over the last five games the Nationals are hitting .209 against righties, the Braves are hitting .255. Over the last five games the Nationals bullpen has a 4.26 ERA, the Braves bullpen have a 2.57 ERA.
The Braves have won the first two games, the Nationals just won last night 3-0. With the Braves success against the Nationals we see value in the Braves plus money. While Roark has been impressive his numbers show a probable decline, why not against a team that seems to dominate his team, especially after that team just lost.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Braves +120
1st Game, 6/20/2014 - Rockies - 1.10 to win 1 - LOSS
2nd Game, 06/21/2014 - Yankees -1.08 to win 1 - LOSS
3rd Game, 06/22/2014- Braves -1 to win 1.20 - LOSS
New Updated Record 24-19, Units +5.84 (all games are for one unit unless specified).
Last edited by Ck013; 06-22-14 at 10:41 PM.
Monday 06/23/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Alfredo Simon (R) (10-3) 3.05 ERA vs. Jeff Samardzija (R) (2-6) 2.89 ERA
After losing three straight, we plan to fight through and end the streak. Tonight’s matchup is between the Cincinatti Reds and the Chicago Cubs for game one of their series in Chicago. Alfredo Simon takes the hill for the Reds to take on Jeff Samardzija of the Cubs. We look at a new series to start a new streak.
Alfredo Simon has flourished this season, he is 10-3 with a 3.05 ERA. Jeff Samardzija has had a decent year himself, however you wouldn’t know it looking at his record of 2-6 compared to his ERA of 2.60. Alfredo’s FIP is over a run higher than his ERA at 4.44 and his xFIP predicts him over a run higher as well at 4.09. Jeff Samardzija’s FIP is 2.89, less than half a run higher and his xFIP predicts him at 3.19. Simon’s BaBIP average is low at .243 and his LOB% is high at 82.6%, he has had some luck. Jeff’s BaBIP average is right where it should be at .303 and his LOB% is right where it should be at 73.5%, his performances have been fairly raw.
Simon has beaten Samardzija twice this season both in April, once in Chicago and the other in Cincinnati. Cincinnati is coming off a win at home and they are 5-10 in game ones after a win. The Reds also seem to have Monday hangovers going 1-5 on Mondays. The Cubs are 16-21 in night games however the Reds are 19-27 in night games themselves. Another worthy note, the Cubs bullpen ERA over their last five, 2.33; the Reds bullpen, 7.88.
Samardzija holds a 1.64 home ERA through seven starts at home. Between the Red’s apparent Monday blues and their game one blunders, we see the Cubs taking this one. The Cubs closed at a lot of books at -115 in yesterday’s loss to the Pirates. They are right back at -115 to see who will back the Cubs after losing with Hammel on the mound, and we will take that bet.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Cubs -115
Tuesday 06/24/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Jordan Zimmermann (R) (5-4) 2.95 ERA vs. Yovani Gallardo (R) (5-4) 3.34 ERA
After the longest losing streak of four games, we are moving into damage control. Today, we look at game two of the Washington Nationals visiting the Milwaukee Brewers. Jordan Zimmermann takes the hill for the Nats to take on Yovani Gallardo of the Brewers. We look the shake off the losing in what on paper looks to be a great matchup.
We will start with Yovani Gallardo who is 5-4 with a 3.34 ERA. Yovani’s FIP is higher at 4.09 and his xFIP is also higher than his ERA at 3.63. His BaBIP average is low at .266 and his LOB% is very high at 80.9%. These numbers are not too appealing to side with, they are a dangerous combination. Especially when you consider that Gallardo’s record versus the Nationals is 3-3 with a 6.44 ERA, again not appealing.
Jordan Zimmermann is 5-4 with a 2.95 ERA thus far. His FIP is even lower at 2.88 and his xFIP is slightly higher at 3.18. Zimmermann has a BaBIP average of .315 and his LOB% is 74.8% both right around where they should be. The most appealing stat, Zimmermann is 4-0 with an ERA of 2.19 against the Brew Crew.
Should the bullpens become a factor on either side, the Nats bullpen ERA over the last five games is 1.62. The Brewers bullpen ERA over their last five is 3.55, and their starters are averaging 4.73. We like the matchup a lot today, and believe this game should have been a pick if not Zimmermann favored.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Nationals +105
Wednesday 06/25/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Stephen Strasburg (R) (6-5) 3.24 ERA vs. Marco Estrada (R) (6-4) 5.22 ERA
Last night we finally snapped our four game losing streak, and it came in extra innings in a sweater. Today we hope to build some momentum and try to get two on the board. We will stick with the same series, the final game of the series; game three of the Nats visiting the Brewers. Stephen Strasburg takes the hill to battle with Marco Estrada as the Nats go for the sweep.
Stephen Strasburg is 6-5 with a 3.24 ERA, his FIP is 2.43 and his xFIP predicts him at 2.44. His BaBIP is very high at .356 and his LOB% is 70%. Marco Estrada is 6-4 with a 5.22 ERA, his FIP is 5.77 and his xFIP predicts hm at 4.17. Estrada’s BaBIP is low at .260 and his LOB% is slightly high at 76.7%.
We can see here these pitchers are on opposite sides of the spectrum. Strasburg has fought through an unlucky BaBIP average, as Estrada has lucked out enough to a 6-4 record. Looking at these pitcher’s FIP we see Strasburg will be trending upwards as the season progresses, while Estrada’s numbers are all high. Both pitchers are coming off low GSc (game scores), however Strasburg has better bounce back numbers.
Marco Estrada is 0-2 against the Nats with a 6.30 ERA, Strasburg has faced the Brewers only once earning a no decision giving up four hits and no runs. When playing on Wednesdays, the Brewers are 6-6, the Nats are 10-2. You may wonder why Strasburg is only -130, one he is on the road where he has struggled, and also the line is discounted for the sweep. That being said, we see value in the Nats at -130.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Nationals -130
Thursday 06/26/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Adam Wainwright (R) (10-3) 2.08 ERA vs. Josh Beckett (R) (5-4) 2.28 ERA
After an ugly loss we failed to build on our win Wednesday night. We are on a bit of a cold streak and after Strasburg laid an egg we try to put it behind us. Today we look at a game that should draw the attention many, not only is it Cardinals/Dodgers but Wainwright and Beckett. Both these pitchers have been solid for their teams thus far, and it should be a great game to watch.
Adam Wainwright is 10-3 with a 2.08 ERA, even more impressively his FIP is solid at 2.40 and his xFIP predicts him at 3.07. Josh Beckett is 5-4 with a 2.28 ERA, his FIP is over a run higher at 3.84 and his xFIP predicts him at 3.45. Wainwright’s BaBIP is low at .253 and his LOB% is high at 79.7%. Beckett’s BaBIP is even lower at .233 and his LOB% is even higher at 87.5%. Over Wainwright’s last three starts he has earned an ERA of 1.17, Beckett earned a 1.35.
Where we see an advantage however; Beckett’s home ERA is 2.62 in 8 games (higher than his 2.28 overall ERA), Wainwright’s road ERA through 9 games is 1.50 (lower than his 2.08 overall ERA). Another slight advantage; Wainwright is 4-5 (team record 6-6) against the Dodgers but with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.136 WHIP, while Beckett is 2-2 his ERA against the Cards is 4.68 with a 1.323 WHIP and although his record shows 2-2 his team’s record in his starts against the Cardinals is 2-5. Looking at each pitchers home and away records, Wainwright has a 6-2 record on the road and Beckett has a 1-3 record at home.
This should be a very entertaining game either way, but see a lot of value on Wainwright at -120. Beckett is getting a lot of respect and rightfully so as he had a resurgence to his career with his performances this year including a no-hitter. Wainwright is the Cardinal’s ace and they do not like to lose games he pitches, not to mention Beckett’s bubble is much larger than Wainwright’s.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Cardinals -120
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