[Ck013]

Thanks guys, I appreciate your comments.

[Ck013]

Tuesday 05/27/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
Jorge De Le Rosa (L) (5-3) 3.91 ERA vs. Cole Hamels (L) (1-2) 4.30 ERA

Yesterday’s Square Play of the Day saw the Phillies getting a win over the Rockies in a big way. Today’s Square Play of the Day, we go right back to the Rockies visiting the Phillies for game two of their three game series. Today 33 year old lefty, Jorge De La Rosa takes the mount for the Rockies to face off with 30 year old lefty, Cole Hamels.

Jorge De Le Rosa currently stands with a 5-3 record and a 3.91 ERA. His FIP however, 4.22 with a -0.33 run differential and his balls in play average stands at .241. This number is very low and yet his FIP still has a negative differential, not a very good stat. Cole Hamels has a 1-2 record with a 4.30 ERA, which doesn’t look too appealing. Cole’s FIP stands at a strong 3.08, a +1.22 run differential and his balls in play average is currently .359 leaving plenty of room for improvement. Unlike De La Rosa who seems to have been fortunate this season, we see Hamels has actually pitched fairly well thus far; just hasn’t had any breaks go his way.

Looking at the rest of the team, the Rockies this year are hitting .296 against lefties but only .209 their last five versus lefties. The Phils are hitting .225 their last five against lefties which isn’t much better but they do have a higher on base percentage of .295 opposed to the Rockies’ .277 average. The next advantage I see is the bullpen in which the Rockies bullpen ERA over their last five, an ugly 6.91. The Phillies, 0.71 ERA for their bullpen two opposite ends of the spectrum.

In yesterday’s game we threw the numbers out and played the situation. Today we will consider the stats, but will also play today’s situation. The Rockies were shut out two games in a row, while the Phillies exploded on them for nine runs after being no-hit by Josh Beckett. Based off both the numbers, and the situation it seems as though Philly is starting to heat up a little bit playing with a nasty taste in their mouth after being globally embarrassed. The Rockies, have been playing poorly, and have been under the radar not really having to answer for their poor play. It seems as though the Rockies are sinking into a slump and the Phillies could be heating up. We will play both teams day-to-day but today, we see value in the Phillies again.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Phillies -120

[RollinDo]

Was thinking same thing today.

[PorkChop]

Rockies bats have to wake sooner or later..

[posey]

But not on the road and not against Hamels. Hamels is 5-1 over the last 6 against the Rockies and has given up a mere 11 ER in 44 IP in those games.

[PorkChop]

Great research

[Ck013]

Wednesday 05/28/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
New York Yankees @ St. Louis Cardinals
Hiroki Kuroda (R) (3-3) 4.55 ERA vs. Shelby Miller (R) (6-3) 3.18 ERA

Tough loss in yesterday’s Square Play of the Day, here we go with another bounce back game. In today’s Square Play of the Day we see the New York Yankees visiting the St. Louis Cardinals in game three of their three game series currently tied at 1-1. Hiroki Kuroda will take the mound against Shelby Miller in a battle between two teams with a rich winning history.

Hiroki Kuroda (righty) has a 3-3 record with a 4.55 ERA so far this season. His FIP stands at 4.08 making a run differential of +0.47, his BaBIP is right where it should be at .306. The interesting point in today’s game is Kuroda’s LOB% (left on base percentage), which is currently 62.7%, meaning he has let up more runs than the average pitcher. This percentage for every pitcher should be close to around 70-72%, chances are he will strand more runners.

Shelby Miller (righty) has a 6-3 record with a 3.18 ERA. His FIP is currently 5.22 making a -2.05 run differential, and a BaBIP of .258 to help mask his outer numbers. To add to the deception, his LOB% is well above the league average at 87.7%, he’s due to give more of those runs up. It seems as though Shelby has had a lot of help so far this season and we have to wonder how long that will last.

The Yankees have struggled to swing the bat recently; over their last five they’ve hit .208 versus righties. The Cardinals are hitting .267 over their last five against righties but seem to be trending down as their last 10 average versus righties is .278. The Yankees bullpen has as ERA of 2.29 their last five while the Cardinal bullpen has an ERA of 3.07; slight edge to the Yankees.

In game three after a loss the Yankees are 6-3; the Cards in game three after a win, 4-5. Today’s rubber game seems like a good fit for Kuroda and the Yankees. If the Yankees can take advantage of Shelby’s LOB% trend, and put some balls in play I believe the Yankees will have the edge.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Yankees +116

[Ck013]

Thursday 05/29/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
Ryan Vogelsong (R) (3-2) 3.20 ERA vs. Jaime Garcia (L) (1-0) 4.26 ERA

In Today’s Square Play of the Day, we have right-handed Ryan Vogelsong visiting left-handed Jaime Garia; game one (of a four game series) the Giants at the Cardinals. Vogelsong comes into tonight’s matchup with a 3-2 record, and a 3.20 ERA. His opponent Jaime Garcia, a 1-0 record and a 4.26 ERA in only two starts. This is the start of what should be a great series for two playoff candidates.

Vogelsong’s outer numbers have improved greatly. In May, his ERA is currently 1.64 a huge improvement compared to his 5.40 April. Vogelsong’s FIP currently sits at 3.79, a -0.59 run differential, and his BaBIP is .284. Although those numbers are bit concerning, there is really nothing concrete to doubt him there. The major concern lies within his LOB%, which currently sits at 80.6%, in combination with the above mentioned numbers. Vogelsong’s .283 BaBIP leads us to believe he will let on more hits, his FIP tells us he hasn’t been completely true to his ERA number, and his LOB% is a whopping 80% telling us he’s due to give up some of those runs. To make matters worse for Vogelsong his xFIP is currently 4.11, it seems as though his stock is high now but will be trending down.

Why not against the big bats of the St. Louis Cardinals who just lost two out of three at home to the Yankees. The Cards are hitting .280 versus righties their last ten games, and are averaging 4.23 runs per nine innings. Although a small sample size of 68 total at-bats against Cardinal players, the Cards are hitting .358 against Vogelsong. The Giants are hitting .146, have an OBP of .212, and are only scoring 2.57 runs per nine innings against lefties over their last ten games.

We did not mention much about Garcia because there is not much to mention. He has only two starts this season, his first giving up four and then his next improving and only giving up two. We are going off of Vogelsong’s overdue numbers and waiting for his balloon of luck to burst. We are also going with the Cardinal big bats, and their bullpen who have an ERA of 2.59 over their last ten. It’s expensive but there is a reason, give me the Cardinals -135.

The Square Play of the Day, the Cardinals -135

[RollinDo]

Like it. I started a thread about Cards being the POD today. Not too pricey either going down to -125.
Cards ate best team following a loss at 17-6, followed by Angels, who I'm backing too tonight.

[Ck013]

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.

1st Game, 5/27/2014 - Phillies - 1.20 to win 1.00 - LOSS
2nd Game, 5/28/2014 - Yankees - 1 to win 1.16 - WIN
3rd Game, 5/29/2014 - Cardinals - 1.35 to win 1 - LOSS


New Updated Record 11-8, Units +3.12 (all games are for one unit unless specified).

[RollinDo]

I bet on 1st and 3rd games...go figure

[Ck013]

Friday 05/30/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Colorado Rockies @ Cleveland Indians
Juan Nicasio (R) (5-2) 3.61 ERA vs. Corey Kluber (R) (5-3) 3.10 ERA

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Rockies are visiting the Indians for game one of a three game series and a six game home stand for Cleveland. The Rockies are 12-18 on the road and after having a day off they resume their nine game road trip which ends here in Cleveland. The Indians are returning home where they are 15-11; after completing a seven game road trip, a day off and an awful four game skid to end their trip. The Rockies send Juan Nicasio to mound to combat with the Indian’s Corey Kluber.

Juan Nicasio comes into tonight’s matchup with a 5-2 record and a 3.61 ERA. His opponent, Corey Kluber holds a 5-3 record with a 3.10 ERA. Nicasio’s current FIP stands at 4.85 over a full run more than his ERA, and his xFIP projects him at 4.23. Juan’s BaBIP stands at a low .259 while his LOB% is a high 78.2%. This tells us that one; he’s due to get more base runners from balls in play and two; he’s due to let some of those base runners score. Kluber's FIP is currently 2.22, almost a full run better than his ERA and his xFIP projects him at 2.70. Corey’s LOB% is 74.4% right around where it should be, but his BaBIP is a high .350. Corey has been the real deal, and still has room for improvement.

Although the Rockies are known for their big bats down in Colorado, on the road they have only hit .224 against righties (compared to .278 against righties overall this season). Last ten, the Rockies have hit .236 against righties, last five .208. They have also averaged only 1.30 runs per nine innings against righties their last five games. The Indians overall are hitting .258 against righties, and .264 at home against them. Over their last ten games the Indians are hitting .272 against righties, over their last five .234, however they were on a road trip. The Rockies starting pitching over their last five have averaged a 4.05 ERA with the bullpen posting a 6.19 ERA. The Indians starting pitchers have averaged 2.81 over their last five and their bullpen a 1.72 ERA over their last five.

This game comes at a price but the matchup is well worth it. We expect the Rockies to be a public dog due the perception of their hitting and the perception of the Indians poor play, losing their last four. The Rockies struggle on the road, the Indians do better at home. The Indians are 11-3 in Klubers’ last 14 home starts.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Indians -145

[Down_Goes Bookie]

Nice capping. Speaking of Kluber, fangraphs had a great piece on him recently. Check out the cool GIFs. He made Miggy look silly.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/corey...or-league-ace/

[Ck013]

Saturday 05/31/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Johnny Cueto (R) (4-4) 1.83 ERA vs. Brandon McCarthy (R) (1-6) 4.87 ERA

Today’s Square Play of the Day is a late night game that looks ugly on paper. Johnny Cueto takes on Brandon McCarthy, as the Reds play game three of their four game series in Arizona against the Diamondbacks. These two teams are currently split at 1-1, with the Reds bats finally showing up last night in a 6-4 win.

Johnny Cueto has had a remarkable start to the season, with a 4-4 record and a 1.83 ERA. His host, Brandon McCarthy who holds an ugly 1-6 record and a 4.87 ERA. Johnny Cueto’s FIP is 2.90, and his xFIP predicts him around 2.89, both numbers higher than his current ERA. His BaBIP is an extremely low .178 that number will come up, and his LOB% is 77.9% which is a little high. We see he’s due to be hit more and the runners are due to score. Brandon McCarthy’s FIP is 3.99 and his xFIP predicts him at a 2.88, looks like he has some improvement ahead of him. His BaBIP is right where it should be at .309 and his LOB% is a low 64.3%. We see unlike Cueto who looks like he will be heading downward, McCarthy should be headed on the upward.

Over each of the team’s last five games against righties, the Reds are only hitting .231 and are averaging 2.70 runs per nine innings. The Diamondbacks are averaging .284 and 7.62 runs per nine innings, their bats have been hot. The Reds are only hitting .230 on the road against righties, and the Diamondbacks are hitting .268 at home against righties so far in 2014.

This is an ugly matchup on paper, but it seems as though the Diamondbacks have the upper hand in this matchup. The Reds also happen to be 1-9 their last 10 Saturday games. The value is slowly seeping out as we saw the line already drop from the Reds as slight to favorites, to the Diamondbacks being favored at a lot of books.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Diamondbacks -101

[RavensFan2k3]

I thought I was the only one who liked Arizona here

[fitguy67]

bigpage is on'em too...and price has strengthened a bit from the time this play was quoted, so net-$ movement probably with us as well...seem to be -115 cheapest available anywhere now (except at heritage -110 where i just got'em, obviously trying to balance their own books or they've got an "opinion" and want to attract/"trap" more money to what they think will be the losing side=cincy...)

BOL

[RollinDo]

I really need Cincy to win..at least cover 1.5
Would actually be better for me for AZ to win by 1 with my hedge bet.

[Ck013]

Saturday 05/31/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
Tim Hudson (R) (5-2) 1.92 ERA vs. Lance Lynn (R) (6-2) 3.13 ERA

Ugly game yesterday, ugly loss yesterday. Today’s Square Play of the Day is in the Giants and the Cardinals in game four to end their series. The Giants lead 2-1 over the Cards, with the Cardinals winning 2-0 yesterday. Tim Hudosn takes the mound for the visiting Giants, and will take on Lance Lynn for the Cardinals.

Tim Hudson sits with a 5-2 record and a 1.92 ERA, while Lynn holds a 6-2 record with a 3.13 ERA. Hudson’s FIP is 2.94, a full run more than his ERA, and his xFIP projects him at 3.12. Lynn’s FIP is almost right on with 3.18, and his xFIP projects him for 3.69. Hudson’s BaBIP is currently low at .243, and his LOB% is high at 80.8%. There is room for hits and there is room for baserunners to score. Lynn’s BaBIP is right around where it should be at .294 and his LOB% is 77%, a little high but closer to the average and his BaBIP is on target.

Both teams are scoring runs with the Giants averaging 5.73 runs per nine innings over their last five versus righties, and the Cards averaging 4.54. Neither teams’ bullpen has been too solid over the last five games with the Giant bullpen ERA at 4.26 over their last five and the Cardinals’, 3.86. The Cardinals are hitting righties slightly better over their last five despite losing two out of three so far, their batting average versus righties is at .263, and the Giant average is .253.

This should be a great matchup to watch, both pitchers are having great starts to the 2014 season. The Cardinals see this game as a must win, they don’t want to lose a four game series on their home turf; especially against a team that they meet again in the playoffs should both teams make it. The Giants I am sure would love a win, but if they were to lose on the road in this game four, they may be content with spitting a series on the road against a team that plays well at home. I expect the public to take the veteran Hudson, and rightfully so he has been solid all year. I see value in Lance Lynn and the Cardinals today based off the pitchers and motivation.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Cardinals -125

[PublicEnemy]

[Ck013]

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.

1st Game, 5/30/2014 - Indians - 1.45 to win 1 - WIN
2nd Game, 5/31/2014 - Diamondbacks - 1.01 to win 1 - LOSS
3rd Game, 6/01/2014 - Cardinals - 1.25 to win 1 - LOSS


New Updated Record 12-10, Units +1.86 (all games are for one unit unless specified).

[Ck013]

Monday 06/02/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Indians
John Lackey (R) (6-3) 3.27 ERA vs. Justin Masterson (R) (2-4) 5.21 ERA

Today we look to prevent a three game losing streak after losing two in a row. We find ourselves with a tough capping day, but we were able to find the proverbial diamond in the rough. It comes at no easy feat as the Boston Red Sox look to extend their winning streak to eight games against the Cleveland Indians. John Lackey goes for the Red Sox against Justin Masterson and the Indians.

John Lackey, right-handed, holds a 6-3 record and a 3.27 ERA. Justin Masterson also right handed, has had an ugly start to the season with a 2-4 record and a 5.21 ERA. Lackey has an FIP of 3.02 and an xFIP of 3.15. He has been solid with his BaBIP of .322 but his LOB% is a little high at 77%. Masterson has an FIP of 4.09, over a full run better than his ERA and his xFIP is 3.95, also significantly lower that his ERA. Masterson’s BaBIP is .325 but his LOB% is very low at 63.5%, we have to expect this number to rise.

Progressive Field in Cleveland, is 11th out of 30th in home runs; averaging 1.086 according to ESPN. Boston has 41 homeruns this season ranking 26th out of 30 this season, Cleveland has 50 and is ranked 16th. Lackey has a ground ball percentage of only 44.1% making him a fly-ball pitcher with a HR/FB (homerun/fly-ball ratio) of 9.1%. Although Masterson has a higher HR/FB ratio of 11.6%, he is predominantly a ground-ball pitcher with a GB% of 59.4%.

The Red Sox have been hot winning seven in a row but they beat the 21st ranked in batting average (Rays), and the 25th ranked batting average (Braves). The Indians are ranked 15th in batting average and they have just swept a three game series against the Rockies. Their sweep came once they arrived at home where they are 18-11. The Red Sox are 1-5 in game one after a win, the Indians are 4-2. Let’s not forgot Terry Francona is getting a visit from his old team, he will not want to lose this series and game one may be their best shot. Something to consider; 6-3, 3.27 and 2-4, 5.21 why are Red Sox only -115?

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Indians +105

[RollinDo]

I like this enough to stay away from the many bettors on the Red Sox tonight as one of their top plays.

[Ck013]

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.

1st Game, 6/03/2014 - Indians - 1 to win 1.05 - WIN


New Updated Record 13-10, Units +2.91 (all games are for one unit unless specified).

[Ck013]

Tuesday 06/03/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
San Francisco Giants @ Cincinnati Reds
Tim Lincecum (R) (4-3) 4.18 ERA vs. Homer Bailey (R) (5-3) 5.04 ERA

After a win yesterday we look to build some momentum with today’s Square Play of the Day. Today we look at the San Francisco Giants visiting the Cincinnati Reds. Tim Lincecum takes the mound for the Giants to take on Homer Bailey of the Reds. Both teams coming off of a day off with Cincinnati returning home from a road trip that ended successfully in Arizona, the Giants continuing their road trip after taking three out of four from the Cardinals in St. Louis.

Tim Lincecum holds a 4-3 record with a 4.18 ERA, while Bailey holds a 5-3 record and a 5.04 ERA. Lincecum’s FIP is currently 4.00, and his xFIP projects him at 3.56. His BaBIP is still high at .341 and his LOB% is a little high at 77.2%. Bailey’s FIP is 4.38, and his xFIP projects him at 3.50, both decent size differences from his current ERA. His BaBIP is also high at .340 and his LOB% is right around where it should be at 73.8%. Comparing these two pitchers, Bailey has more room for improvement but there is no real blatant advantage.

Where we do see an advantage between these two is in their history of playing each other’s teams. Lincecum is 0-3 against the Reds, with an 8.65 ERA and a 1.731 WHIP; his team is 1-4 in his starts against the Reds. Bailey is 2-0 against the Giants with a 3.80 ERA and WHIP of 1.044, his team is 4-3 (+2.7 units) in his starts against the Giants. According to ESPN, Great America Ballpark averages the 2nd most home runs in the league and although the Giants have a lot of home runs this season, Lincecum has a GB% of 45.1 making him a flyball pitcher with a 14% HR/FB ratio. Although Bailey has an even higher HR/FB ratio with 17.5, his GB% of 53.2% makes him more of a ground-ball pitcher.

The Giants bats have been hot no question, but the Reds have started to hit a little as well. The Giant bullpen however over their last five have not posted good numbers. The Giant bullpen ERA over their last five games sits at 4.26 while the Red bullpen sits at 0.73. It’s scary going against the Giants these days, but I feel confident in the Reds at home against Lincecum who has been slightly worse on the road. Homer Bailey should begin to trend into better numbers, and we like this matchup.

The Square Play of the Day, the Reds – 120

[Ck013]

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.

1st Game, 6/03/2014 - Reds - 1.20 to win 1 - WIN


New Updated Record 14-10, Units +3.91 (all games are for one unit unless specified).

[flying lotus]

Good stuff Ck.. saw a ton of people on SF and decided against it and won with you on reds. Love the analysis, keep it up!

[Ck013]

Wednesday 06/04/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
Marco Estrada (R) (5-2) 4.03 ERA vs. Ricky Nolasco (R) (3-5) 5.70 ERA

After two straight wins we attempt to make it a three game winning streak tonight in a matchup between the visiting Milwaukee Brewers and the hosting Minnesota Twins. These teams just split a two game series in Milwaukee and are now starting a two game series in Minnesota. Marco Estrada takes the mound for the Brewers and his opponent, Ricky Nolasco.

Marco Estrada holds a 5-2 record and a 4.03 ERA while Ricky Nolasco is 3-5 with a 5.70 ERA. Estrada’s FIP is currently 5.45 over a run higher than his ERA, and his xFIP projects him at 3.92. His current BaBIP average is a low .244 and his LOB% is a very high 87.2%. Essentially we expect to see those numbers balance out, giving up for base runners from balls in play, and those runners to score. Ricky Nolasco’s FIP is 4.63 almost a full better than his ERA, and his xFIP projects him at 4.32 (over a run better than his ERA). His BaBIP average is high at .347 and his LOB% is relatively low at 69.6%. He seems due for some luck to go his way in both hits and baseball runners.

Target Field in Minnesota is 16th in the league in homeruns, with a rating of 0.937 according to ESPN Park Factors; they are tied for 12th (with Great American Ball Park) in runs scored with a rating of 1.028. This ballpark gives up its share of homeruns and runs, and both pitchers are fly-ball pitchers. Marco Estrada has a GB% of 37.4% and Nolasco has a 41.8%. The bigger difference however; Estrada’s FB/HR ratio is 18.7% compared to Nolasco’s 11.9%.

Both teams have been hitting the ball fairly well, both pitchers have struggled historically against the opposing teams. Both pitchers are susceptible to the home run, and both teams just played each other twice in Milwaukee. The difference is Nolasco is due for better fortune while it’s a matter of time for Estrada’s to run out. With both teams swinging the bats well and both bullpens fairly even over their last five, I would rather have the home team with a pitcher who’s due to improve.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Twins - 106

[Ck013]

Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each, unless specified.

1st Game, 6/04/2014 - Twins - 1.06 to win 1 - WIN


New Updated Record 15-10, Units +4.91 (all games are for one unit unless specified).

[jed81]

Nice hit on Minny

[Ck013]

Thursday 06/05/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
Wily Peralta (R) (4-5) 2.73 ERA vs. Kevin Correia (R) (2-6) 5.87 ERA

We are riding a three game winning streak and we try to stretch it to four tonight. Game two of the Brewers and Twins, in Minnesota, game four of the season series. So far Minnesota is up 2-1 going for a season series win, at home in Minnesota. Wily Peralta takes the mound for the Brewers against Kevin Correia and the Twins.

Wily Peralta comes in with a 4-5 record and an impressive 2.73 ERA, while Correia maintains a 2-6 record with a 5.87 ERA. Although it appears to be a lopsided affair, Wily Peralta’s FIP is actually 4.01 to Correia’s 3.96. Peralta’s FIP is over a run a worse than his ERA, while Correia’s is almost two runs better; it may not be as lopsided as it seems. Especially when see Peralta’s BaBIP is .284 (a little low), and his LOB% is 80.7%, notably high through 11 starts. Correia with a BaBIP of .336 (fairly high) and a LOB% of 59.6% (very low), is on the opposite end of the spectrum and we see plenty of room for improvement.

As discussed yesterday, ESPN Park Factors have Target Field as a ballpark that is venerable to runs and gets its fair share of homeruns. Wily Peralta has a GB% of 52.6% which helps, although his FB/HR ratio is 15.8%, a high chance of a homerun if he throws a flyball. Although Correia is a flyball pitcher with a GB% of 42.7%, his HR/FB ratio is only 6.7%, he has been more successful as a flyball pitcher. Both teams are swinging good bats, and both bullpens are rocky, but have been performing pretty evenly recently.

This line may seem cheap for Peralta, but his true numbers show he may not have been pitching as well as he looked. Correia has not had a great start to the season, but he is a veteran and knows how to adjust. I believe the Twins are playing good baseball right now, and believe the matchup once again looks good for the Twins.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Twins +110

[johnbaek]

Nice hit! Liking the analysis

[johnbaek]

No play today?

[Ck013]

Friday 06/06/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Julio Teheran (R) (5-3) 1.83 ERA vs. Brandon McCarthy (R) (1-7) 5.20 ERA

Last night we thought we had it in the bag after a grand slam from the Twins, but unfortunately their pitching couldn’t get it done and our three game winning streak was snapped. Today looks to be an interesting matchup and probably not a popular one. The Atlanta Braves send out 23 year old Julio Teheran, to take on the Diamondbacks’ 30 year old Brandon McCarthy.

On the surface Teheran looks great, a 5-3 record and a 1.83 ERA. Although Teheran has been dominant, his FIP is actually 3.68, a run differential of -1.85 (almost two runs worse). His xFIP projects him at 3.86, that’s over two more runs that his ERA. His BaBIP is currently a very low .215 and his LOB% is a very high 87.5%; bad combination. McCarthy on the other hand looks a little rough around the edges with a 1-7 record, and a 5.20 ERA. His FIP however is 3.88, making a +1.32 run differential and his xFIP projects him at 2.87 which is over two runs better than his ERA. His BaBIP is a little high at .327 and his LOB% is a very low 62.5%; these are positive numbers.

McCarthy has been hurt by the homerun this year with a HR/FB% of 20.8%, however he has been mindful and has produced a good amount of ground balls with a GB% of 54.8%. Chase Field in Arizona is ranked 6th in the league in homeruns according to ESPN Park Factors, and although Teheran has a much lower HR/FB ratio of 8.9%, he is a flyball pitcher with a GB% of 39%. The Braves are hitting .257 against righties over their last five, averaging 4.36 runs per nine innings. The Dbacks are averaging .319 and 6.68 runs per nine innings their last five versus righties.

Teheran’s stock is very high at the moment, his last three starts have been solid and his ERA is under two. McCarthy’s stock is extremely low with an ERA above five, and his last start against Cincinnati was bad to say the least only going 4.1 innings; giving up nine hits and five runs all earned. Teheran is not in a good spot with his projections and trends, and a flyball pitcher against a hot hitting team in a homerun hitting ballpark while going against a groundball pitcher is not a good mix.

Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Diamondbacks +106

[RJKing]

how is this a square play? nice write-up though

[Ck013]

Saturday 06/07/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds
Alfredo Simon (R) (7-3) 3.03 ERA vs. Roberto Hernandez (R) (2-3) 4.03 ERA

Today’s Square Play of the Day comes at no easy feat, but we have a decent looking game, in game two of the Phillies visiting the Reds. Alfredo Simon takes the hill against the Roberto Hernandez after the Phillies touched up Johnny Cueto in yesterday’s game one. Today we try to stop the losing, and we try to gain ground.

Alfredo Simon rolls into today’s contest with a 7-3 record and a 3.03 ERA. His opponent, Robert Hernandez who is holding a 2-3 record and a 4.03 ERA. Alfredo Simon has an xFIP of 4.56, over a run and a half higher than his ERA and his xFIP projects him at 4.28 (still over a run higher than his ERA). Robert Herdandez has also has a higher run differential in his FIP which is at 4.45 and an xFIP of 4.19, but this levels the field a little more. Simon’s BaBIP average is very low at .235, compared to Herdandez’s .297. Simon’s LOB% is a very high 83.1% compared to Herndadez’s 76.6%.

Where we see another difference is in the GB percentage. Simon has as a HR/FB ratio of 12.2%, Hernandez 12.5%, very close. Simon’s GB% percentage however is 46.4% making him a flyball pitcher, compared to Hernandez’s 51.9%. Great American Ball Park has a HR rating of 1.751 according to ESPN Park Factor’s, the second most in the league behind Yankee Stadium.

We saw Cueto go down last night, as we have been saying he was due for it, we see the same for Simon in this spot. It’s not necessarily that Hernandez is the better pitcher, but we believe this is a good spot for him in this matchup. We are trying to avoid a three game losing streak, and we have a live dog here.

The Square Play of the Day, the Phillies +130