Sunday 06/29/2014 - The Square Play of the Day! Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants
Homer Bailey (R) (7-4) 4.80 ERA vs. Tim Hudson (R) (7-4) 2.62 ERA
After a big slump the Square Play took two days off to regroup and shake off the bad vibes. We return Sunday to test the waters. The Cincinnati Reds and the San Francisco Giants game four, Homer Bailey takes the hill to combat with Tim Hudson. Here we go, attempting to go back to our winning ways.
Homer Bailey comes into today’s matchup with a 7-4 record and a 4.80 ERA. Homer’s FIP is a little better at 4.14 and his xFIP predicts him to improve at 3.47. Homer’s BaBIP average is high at .331 we see he has not been very lucky thus far, and his LOB% is right around the norm at 73.3%. Tim Hudson strolls in also with a 7-4 record and a flashy 2.62 ERA. Hudson’s FIP is slightly higher at 3.23 and his xFIP predicts him to slightly regress at 3.40. Hudson’s BaBIP has gone up and is now at .283, still low while his LOB% is also coming down it is slightly high at 76.2%.
Homer Bailey is 3-0 against the Giants (team record 5-3) with a 3.88 ERA but only a 1.039 WHIP. Tim Hudson is 5-1 against Cincinnati (team record is 6-2) with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.243 WHIP. Both pitchers however have struggled over their previous three starts, each with a 5.71 ERA over that span. A difference however over their last three, Homer’s WHIP is 1.443 and Hudson’s WHIP is 1.845 perhaps Hudson’s luck is starting to turn.
Over the last three season the Reds are 15-9 against the Giants over the last three years, 9-2 in San Francisco. Both teams play well on Sundays, the Reds are 9-3 and the Giants are 10-2. Both teams play well in day games, the Reds are 19-10 and the Giants are 20-9. We see value in the underdog as the situation seems to be more even than the line indicates in this matchup. The Reds are 16-9 in June, the Giants are 10-14; in a more even matchup I would rather have the hot hand.
Monday 06/30/2014 - The Square Play of the Day! Cleveland Indians @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Corey Kluber (R) (7-5) 3.09 ERA vs. Dan Haren (R) (7-4) 3.83 ERA
After achieving what seems like the elusive win as of late, the Square Play of the Day returns Monday night trying to build some momentum. We take a look into the Indians visiting the Dodgers for game one of their series. The Indians send out Corey Kluber to combat with Dan Haren and the Dodgers, in Los Angeles.
Corey Kluber has by far been the Indians best pitcher, he holds a 7-5 record with a 3.09 ERA. Kluber’s FIP is better at 2.68 and his xFIP still predicts him lower than his ERA at 2.84. Corey’s FIP shows us he has been solid and his BaBIP average of .336 indicates he has not been fortunate butt good while his LOB% is right where it should be 74.3%.
Dan Haren has tough role in a rotation with Grienke, Kershaw and Ryu, and most teams look at Haren as the best chance for a win. Not to say Haren hasn’t held his own thus far, he holds a 7-4 record and a 3.83 ERA. Haren’s FIP is higher than his ERA at 4.53, but his xFIP predicts him right where he is at. Haren’s FIP differential shows he has been fortunate, and his BaBIP of .288 would indicate the same while his LOB% is low at 70.9%.
The Indians know this is their best matchup to get a win on the Los Angeles dodgers, their Ace against the Dodgers weakest link. Over Kluber’s last three stats he has managed an impressive 1.86 ERA, while Haren has survived a 5.51. While Kluber has never faced the Dodgers, Haren is 4-3 against the Indians with a 3.82 ERA. This play is a value play, although the Dodgers may have the better team, the Indians are sending their best pitcher to hill and are not going to want to lose this one.
Friday 07/04/2014 - The Square Play of the Day! Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Kyle Lohse (R) (9-2) 3.08 ERA vs. Alfredo Simon (R) (10-3) 2.81 ERA
After days off, The Square Play returns on the 4th of July. After sweeping a four game series against the Giants in San Francisco, the Reds were then swept by one of the MLB’s worst teams this season, the Padres. The Reds now return home after a total 10 game road trip after having a day off and will now spend their 4th of July with division rival and NL surprise the Milwaukee Brewers. After a long home stand, the Brewers hit the road for a two game series in Toronto in which they were swept, they stay on the road and visit Cincinnati for three games after also having yesterday off.
Kyle Lohse comes into today’s matchup with a 9-2 record and a 3.08 ERA. Lohse’s FIP is higher than his ERA at 3.57 and his xFIP predicts he will regress through the season at 3.93. Lohse’s BaBIP is low at .261 but his LOB% is actually right around where it should be at 72.8%. While Lohse has been more of a flyball pitcher with a 43.1% GB%, his HR/FB ratio is pretty low at 7.5%.
Alfredo Simon holds an impressive 10-3 record with an even more impressive 2.81. His FIP is over a run higher than his ERA at 4.29 and his xFIP predicts a significant regression at 3.98. Simon’s BaBIP is very low at .235 and his LOB% is very high at 83.5%, he’s been a very lucky guy. Simon has also proven to be a flyball pitcher as well with a GB% of 48.2% but his HR/FB ratio is much higher at 12.4%.
Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio leads the league in homeruns according to ESPN Park Factors, and is 9th in the league in runs. The Milwaukee Brewers’ Miller Park, is 19th in the league in home runs yet the Brewers are 8th in the league in home runs with 88 while the Reds are 20th with 71. The Brewers are also 5th in the league in runs while the Reds are 23rd. Kyle Lohse is 5-4 against the Reds with a 2.89 ERA, Simon is 0-0 against the Brewers with a 3.86 ERA.
Sunday 07/06/2014 - The Square Play of the Day! Texas Rangers @ New York Mets
Nick Tepesch (R) (3-3) 3.65 ERA vs. Zack Wheeler (R) (3-8) 4.25 ERA
Today we have another analysis for you for Sunday, July 6, 2014. Today we look at the Texas Rangers visiting the New York Mets in their final game three, the rubber match of the series. Who would have thought that midway through the season the Texas Rangers would have the same record as the New York Mets, both at 38-49. The Texas Rangers send out right-handed Nick Tepesch to combat with another righty, Zack Wheeler of the New York Mets.
Tepesch comes into today’s contest with a 3-3 record and a 3.65 ERA through 8 starts this season. Tepesch’s FIP is almost a full run higher at 4.55 and his xFIP predicts that’s about where we will end up with a 4.53. Tepesch’s BaBIP is low at .277 and his LOB% is a little high at 78.2% to go along with his xFIP predicting him to regress.
Zack Wheeler has had a completely disappointing year thus far for the New York Mets. His record is 3-8 with a 4.25 ERA, not exactly what the Mets were hoping for. The good news for Wheeler is his FIP is almost a full run lower at 3.38, and his xFIP predicts him to improve at 3.49. Wheeler hasn’t helped himself as he has struggled to through strikes at times, but with his BaBIP at .326 and his LOB% at 68.2%; he really hasn’t had any luck at all.
While Tepesch has been in better form over his last three starts, the Mets are 18-15 when playing a team with a losing record compared to the Rangers who are 12-16. The Mets also have an edge in the bullpen believe it or not with their bullpen holding a 3.10 ERA, while Texas’ holds a 4.42. Texas has been a huge disappointment this season while the Mets have been what everyone expected. I see value in Wheeler today, I think he has the better talent by far and even in an off year at -118 at home I love this matchup.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Mets - 118 (2 Units)
Friday 07/11/2014 - The Square Play of the Day! Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Henderson Alvarez (R) (6-3) 2.27 ERA vs. Zack Wheeler (R) (4-8) 4.07 ERA
We have a play today after winning our second two unit play. Tonight’s matchup the Miami Marlins visit the New York Mets in Flushing, New York at Citi Field. Henderson Alvarez takes the hill for the fish to combat with Zack Wheeler of the New York Metropolitans. The Marlins are coming off of a day off before finishing their nine game road trip in New York, a 3-3 record thus far. The Mets will finish a ten game homestand this series, thus far winning 5 out of 7; including beating Atlanta 3 out of 4.
Henderson Alvarez is having a great year with a 2.27 ERA although out of 18 starts he’s only been able to manage a 6-3 record. Alvarez’s BaBIP average is right around the mark at .311, but his LOB% is a little high at 78.7%. His FIP is much higher at 3.16 and his xFIP predicts him at 3.53, showing us a regression may be coming.
Zack Wheeler as mentioned on the previous Square Play of the Day, is having a forgettable year to say the least. Zack is 4-8 through 18 starts, with a 4.07 ERA. Zack’s BaBIP is still high at .320 and his LOB% is still slightly low at 70%. Zack’s FIP is a little better at 3.48 and his xFIP predicts almost the same as Alvarez at 3.54, but this would mean an improvement for Wheels.
Comparing these pitcher’s FIPs levels out the playing field a little more. Their xFIPs are almost identical really making this matchup interesting and when we look at the LOB%, things actually start to shade Wheeler’s way. The Mets have been playing well while Miami has been surviving. The Marlins have shown their weakness on the road, and are currently 3-3 on this trip, which what many MLB teams call a success on the road. Alvarez appears to be pitching above his head while Wheeler you don’t believe could do much worse.
Friday 07/18/2014 - The Square Play of the Day! Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
Hiroshi Iwakuma (R) (8-4) 2.98 ERA vs. Jered Weaver (R) (10-6) 3.45 ERA
Finally the All-Star break is over, it’s been a long few days and the Square Play has a game tonight. You may have noticed fewer plays from the Square Play as of late; it has been decided that quality and total units, is more important than quantity of games. The Square Plays will be more selective and really look for value when picking a game. Nonetheless, tonight’s matchup, the Seattle Mariners visit the Angels with Iwakuma taking on Weaver.
Iwakuma has been great thus far with a 8-4 record and a 2.98 ERA. Iwakuma’s FIP is slightly higher at 3.21 but his xFIP trends positive at 2.77. His BaBIP is low at .286 and his LOB% is high at 79.7% normally not the greatest combination going forward. Jared Weaver has also had a pretty season himself, he holds a 10-6 with a 3.45 ERA. His FIP however is higher at 4.25 and his xFIP predicts a regression at 4.34. Weaver’s BaBIP is very low at .251 and his LOB% is also high at 77.9% as we find both pitchers have been fortunate thus far.
A positive for Iwakuma; his GB% is 52.1%, much higher than his counterpart who’s GB% is 35.5%. That should help tame the powerful Angels who are 5th in the league in Home Runs. Jared Weaver has had a history of success against the Mariners with a 14-9 record and a 3.30 ERA, however Iwakuma has dominated the Angels through six starts going 5-0 (team record 6-0) with a 1.60 ERA. Through 106 at bats the Angels are only hitting .198 against Iwakuma. Through 207 at bats against the Mariners they are hitting .266 against Weaver, and Robinson Cano is 13-36 (.361) against Weaver.
The Angels were playing great before the All-Star break and have proven to be a very good team. With this particular matchup however, Weaver at -145 is a little high considering Iwakuma’s record against the Angels. While both pitchers have been a little lucky, you have got to like Iwakuma’s impressive xFIP and his ability to induce groundballs against the 5th best homerun hitting team in the league.
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