[Honeybadger44]

Clay court season starting, so I decided to take another shot at running the thread with picks and tracking results.


Jared Donaldson @2.65 4units at 5dimes
Talented american might lacks experiance on clay, but I don't think it can hurt him as much as books are suggesting with these odds. As we know, clay in Houston is a lot faster then the ones in europe and allows aggressive players to go for the winners and hit through the court. Elias decent player, but I don't think he has any clay court tricks to throw Donaldson off his game.

[Honeybadger44]

Sorribes Tormo @1.95 2 units (5dimes)
Watched this young spanish girl couple of times this season. Textbook dirtballer. Heavy on the top spin, moon-balling a lot, knows how to change it up with the backhand slice... Does pretty much everything to prevent good ball stirkers to find rhythm ont heir groundies.
Which makes her a bad matchup for Kudryavtseva imho. Russian player defends some points this week from last year appearance in 2nd round, but I am still not convinced that this green clay suits her playing style.

[Snowball]

clay is Donaldson's favorite surface. even though he hasn't played much on it professionally yet,
he was trained on clay down in Argentina.

[Honeybadger44]

The fact that he was preparing in Argentina on clay can only be good news for this bet. Thanks for the info! But I am not sure about if it is his favorite surface. I know that his profile page on ITF site has that information, but I'm not buying much into that. He simply has a playing style which suits faster surface more imho.

[kenz]

That Clownson is something. 3/14 on break points, Elias 4/4

[kenz]

Clownson lost a serve again,Elias 5/5

[Hardcoar]

Best of luck!

[kenz]

Update:5/5 vs 4/17

[kenz]

Grats Honeybadger Great Day

[Honeybadger44]

Best of luck!

Thanks!

Grats Honeybadger Great Day

Thanks . Donaldson chosed more difficult path, but I'll take the win in any shape or form

[Honeybadger44]

Kimiko Date-Krumm @3.00 1 unit (5dimes)
Kimiko forgot more about tennis then Siegemund will ever know about this sport. I was tempted to back her yesterday against Boserup, but I was bit too careful. Winning 6-1, 6-1 proved that she is fit and can play on this surface, so I gotta take a shot at these odds. Laura Siegemund. 27 year-old german with no big success in her carrer. Not in spectacular form either...

[Hardcoar]

I agree entirely. Looking to make a play myself.

[Honeybadger44]

Btw, I think you are on to something with that Murray play which you have going in your thread. I've read somewhere that he practices a lot in Miami and feels like at home on these courts. He played Novak really close last year here. I remember that he was very good in first set. But that controversial call in tie-break, when Nole reached over the net with his racket, completely threw him off. Also there was some sharp money coming in on him against Berdych, which might be some kind of positive indicator.

[Hardcoar]

Murray seen practising shots confirmed, then?

[Hardcoar]

To me, the most important factors are these:

1. Murray's odds for today are being influenced significantly by the Indian Wells final (where Murray was total-f*cking-garbitch).
2. Murray was extremely good against Berdych, and has been looking better this tournament overall, not to mention he seems to like it a lot more than the desert historically speaking. Also, yes he spends a lot of time in the Miami area.

[SirtySree]

Murray does actually train here most of the time jokes aside and historically done well here cause of that. Novak is still the big favourite though and I think @3 would be reasonable so not huge value there.

Krumm is a decent bet cause of the fact she retires so much lately when down so almost a free bet if your book voids retirements.

Also always nice to read your insight honeybadger. Good luck!

[kenz]

Murray has a house in Miami, stays there for this tournament. Also practices a lot in Miami

[kenz]

Murray on a 11-match losing streak against Nadal, Federer, Nole. 6 of them to Nole

[SirtySree]

Murray on a 11-match losing streak against Nadal, Federer, Nole. 6 of them to Nole

meh wouldnt read into that much as quite a few was early last yr wen he was beatable by a lot of players. he also almost double bagelled nadal earlier this yr bt pretty sure it counted as an exibition match.

he has lost a few times here to novak before tho so does mean a bit

[kenz]

meh wouldnt read into that much as quite a few was early last yr wen he was beatable by a lot of players. he also almost double bagelled nadal earlier this yr bt pretty sure it counted as an exibition match.

he has lost a few times here to novak before tho so does mean a bit

It does

Nole 2-1 @Miami, one win is in 2014.

[Hardcoar]

Those points arent' exactly invalid, but they are far less relevant to me than the most current circumstances. If Murray plays as well as he did against Berdych, and Djokovic plays as well as he did against Ferrer and Isner, Murray will win. Based on that condition one might then speculate various scenarios and how they would play out, but considering how the two players have been looking, particularly towards the later stages of this tournament, Murray @ 4.2 is a great bet, in my opinion.

[kenz]

Nole usually delivers in finals. BTW, if I would take a bet it would definitely be on Murray's side. To add,In Australian Open Murray could win the 3rd set if he was half as tough as Nole.

It is easy to say that Nole has a huge mental edge over Murray. Murray is basically on a losing + choking streak.

[Honeybadger44]

Diego Schwartzman to win ATP Casablanca @27 1 unit (pinnacle)
In this situation, Schwartzman passes all of my criteria, when betting futures. He is an underrated player with decent upside when he gets hot. His part of the draw is very soft and he has open highway to the QF's. And the higher seeded players in that upper part of the draw are beatable.
So, first round vs qualifier. 2nd round Maximo Gonzales or qualifier. Quarterfinals Vesely or Youzhny. Czech player mentaly weak and had problems with injuries lately. Youzhny being Youzhny... In semis, worst case scenario GGL, Ramos or Kukushkin.

[Snowball]

Murray @ 4.2 is a great bet, in my opinion.

but Murray is ranging 3.65-3.85 here. nowhere near 4.2

[sluggy1616]

I think 3 sets is a good bet given both players form. I'd be all over Murray ml if he didn't have that bull dyke as his coach

[Hardcoar]

but Murray is ranging 3.65-3.85 here. nowhere near 4.2

My commission is currently about 4% however, so effectively that'd be about @ 4...

[Hardcoar]

I guess Siegemund is the new clay GOAT...

[w@lt]

DK came to play

[Honeybadger44]

Lossing 1 unit on underdog is no big deal. But when the scoreline gets ugly like this, you feel kinda stupid. Sorry for this one guys. Bad pick.

[Hardcoar]

I can't fault a small attempt on paper though. Not one bit...

The only thing that put me off slightly was the high odds, lol!

[slayer14]

murray badly choked away this set

[Honeybadger44]

I can't fault a small attempt on paper though. Not one bit...

The only thing that put me off slightly was the high odds, lol!

That bothers me often as well. Not knowing the reason behind odds being so high (a lot of times to good to be true)

[Honeybadger44]

Sam Groth ML @3.00 2units (Pinnacle)
Sam Groth +3 @1.99 2 units (Pinnacle)

I actually think that Estrella will like playing conditions in Houston very much. Clay courts which play pretty fast are slightly similar to the ones in Quito, where he won his first ATP tournament earlier this year. When I saw this match, I thought that Estrella could be a potentialy very good bet at odds around 1,75. So, seing him in 1,40 range, I immidietly jumped on the other side.
Groth should manage to play behind his serve and stay very close in this one. It's pretty much all about the number here. Imho, odds are too good to pass up.

[kenz]

Diego Schwartzman to win ATP Casablanca @27 1 unit (pinnacle)
In this situation, Schwartzman passes all of my criteria, when betting futures. He is an underrated player with decent upside when he gets hot. His part of the draw is very soft and he has open highway to the QF's. And the higher seeded players in that upper part of the draw are beatable.
So, first round vs qualifier. 2nd round Maximo Gonzales or qualifier. Quarterfinals Vesely or Youzhny. Czech player mentaly weak and had problems with injuries lately. Youzhny being Youzhny... In semis, worst case scenario GGL, Ramos or Kukushkin.

Bedene is also someone to watch this week although I hate him on clay. Took his British passport last week, he is now Britain's number 2 player

[Honeybadger44]

Donna Vekic @5.44 Pinnacle 1unit
I know it's bit scary backing a player in poor form. But basically, we are "buying" Donna at very low price here. She has talent, no doubt about it. Maybe the change of surface can get her going and if she finds solid rhythm on her groundies, she has a legit chance to win. Watson was decent lately, but not like she become one of top players all of the sudden.