[Honeybadger44]

Bedene is also someone to watch this week although I hate him on clay. Took his British passport last week, he is now Britain's number 2 player

Yup, he waited for that passport for 5 years or so. He was very excited about it and he will probably be motivated in this tournament. Although, I think you are wrong about him and clay. He is one of those aggresive baseliners which can do very well on clay. It's completely another story that he is mental case and extremly inconsistant, which makes him unreliable and not trustworthy in situations where he is favorite. But yeah, when he gets on a heater, he can make some damage.

[kenz]

Donna Vekic @5.44 Pinnacle 1unit
I know it's bit scary backing a player in poor form. But basically, we are "buying" Donna at very low price here. She has talent, no doubt about it. Maybe the change of surface can get her going and if she finds solid rhythm on her groundies, she has a legit chance to win. Watson was decent lately, but not like she become one of top players all of the sudden.

She was injured on her last 2 games. BOL HB

[kenz]

Yup, he waited for that passport for 5 years or so. He was very excited about it and he will probably be motivated in this tournament. Although, I think you are wrong about him and clay. He is one of those aggresive baseliners which can do very well on clay. It's completely another story that he is mental case and extremly inconsistant, which makes him unreliable and not trustworthy in situations where he is favorite. But yeah, when he gets on a heater, he can make some damage.

My first year in betting, I knew nothing with tons of money to lose on the most stupid games. I lost $500 on French Open eliminations in a parlay with Bedene in it somethning like @1.15-@1.20

[Honeybadger44]

Thought about Doi, Shvedova and Matošević, but decided to stay away. Hercog overrated in general imho, but played somewhat decent in last couple of tournaments. Shvedova should really like the conditions in Charleston, but she is coming of injury and is rarely fully fit. And speaking of Marinko, I would be all over that on in normal circumstances, but the line movement clearly indicating that something is wrong with him.

[marniblitz]

Very nicely done with Groth and Vekic today!

[kenz]

Good job

[SirtySree]

Well done with Groth. Definitely a solid pick as Houston is not your typical clay. 17 aces for Groth and Hyeon Chung of all ppl has been serving aces on this surface. 12 aces for him in 3 matches whereas, on hard court he barely ever gets more than 2 per game on good days.

[Honeybadger44]

Very nicely done with Groth and Vekic today!

Good job

Thanks guys! Great day for sure, hitting two big dogs straight up. Once Vekic let that 2nd set slip out of her hands, I thought she is done, as we can often see in WTA. But she fought until the end and got us that W.

Well done with Groth. Definitely a solid pick as Houston is not your typical clay. 17 aces for Groth and Hyeon Chung of all ppl has been serving aces on this surface. 12 aces for him in 3 matches whereas, on hard court he barely ever gets more than 2 per game on good days.

Definitely! Not only that it is the fastest clay court on the tour. I am sure it's even faster from some of the hard courts. Of course, there are still some of the caracteristics of clay courts and the key here is to find out who will not be bothered by it. I figured Groth will not have problems, since he does most of the job with his serve and the points are very short. So, if surface doesn't slow down his serve, he has no problem (it even helps the second serve, because it bounces higher when serving kick).
That all being said, keep an eye on Isner to take this one down.

[Honeybadger44]

Steve Johnson +1,5 games @1.94 Pinnacle 2 units
Public all over Young in this one, pushing the Johnson's odds higher, where I have to take it. I can understand the logic behind betting Young. He was pretty good this season. But I still have Johnson as a better player and I don't see enough adventage for Young on this Houston clay, to make him a favorite in this match. Johnson made some improvments before the start of this season. We can hardly call his backhand a weapon. But at least it's much more reliable now and not a clear weakness as it used to be before, when especially lefties have been feasting on it. I think that is very important for this matchup.

[Honeybadger44]

Gonzalez/Bedene over 20.5 games @1.87 Pinnacle 1 unit
Small wager here on the over simply because the line is low and Bedene is a doughnut. I doubt that he can get through this one quickly, against an experianced dirtballer like Gonzalez.

[Honeybadger44]

Donna Vekić @4.30 Pinnacle 2 units
Was really impressed with Donna in first round. Serving well, hitting well from both wings. Showed a lot of mental toughness winning that third set, after dropping the second one, even though she was ahead. And Watson acctualy did pretty much everything she could. Grinded like crazy, but fell short in the end, so that win was no fluke.
On the other side, Brengle put herself on the radar in the begining of the season with some good tennis in Australia. But she didn't really back that up lately, but still gets a lot fo respect from the odds makers and public, which makes her bit overrated imho.
Vekic went through rough period, but these young players can really improve thir confidence after such a tough win and rise from the ashes quickly.
Don't see any problems in terms of matchup. Vekic would probably struggle against someone, who would know how to expose her movment. Find angles, open up the court and force her to run, because her shots on the run ar enot as good comparing to the ones, when she has her feet set. That is not really Brengle's style...

[Honeybadger44]

Yaroslava Shvedova +3.5 games @2.00 5Dimes 2 units
As I mentioned this before the first round, these conditions should fit Shvedova like a glove. I was worried about her often injuries and the fact she just came back after one of those. But, she dealt with Voegele in straight and said that she felt fit on the court and had no problems. Begu is solid, but I expect Shvedova to keep this one really close or even cause an upset.

[makman]

Yaroslava Shvedova +3.5 games @2.00 5Dimes 2 units
As I mentioned this before the first round, these conditions should fit Shvedova like a glove. I was worried about her often injuries and the fact she just came back after one of those. But, she dealt with Voegele in straight and said that she felt fit on the court and had no problems. Begu is solid, but I expect Shvedova to keep this one really close or even cause an upset.

I like this one , i also like Shvedova ML as well. Good luck.

BTW Begu is not so solid on clay lately. I watched her game against Schmeidlova on clay earlier this year in Brazil. Scmeidlova won that game as being the "better" player of two terrible playing players, not by playing well.
Maybe it was because of the hot weather, dunno, but Begu is not that good

[Honeybadger44]

Good luck then

Crvena Zvezda ML @2.73 Pinnacle 2 units
Crvena Zvezda +4.5 @1.93 Pinnacle 3 units
In the thread which I ran last year, I occasionaly posted picks from other sports and that will be the case in this one as well. This is the last game of TOP 16 round of Euroleague (basketball). Odds should be around evens here, imho. Panathinaikos is set as a big favorite, just because they need this one to qualify into the next round. Zvezda is already out, but that will not play any role here. They are a team, which plays hard on defense every single game. This is some kind of rivalry, because the fans hate each other. It will be a very hostile enviroment for Panathinaikos. And pressure of the result combined with aggressive opponent in hostile enviroment might get to them.

[Hardcoar]

Good luck then

Crvena Zvezda ML @2.73 Pinnacle 2 units
Crvena Zvezda +4.5 @1.93 Pinnacle 3 units
In the thread which I ran last year, I occasionaly posted picks from other sports and that will be the case in this one as well. This is the last game of TOP 16 round of Euroleague (basketball). Odds should be around evens here, imho. Panathinaikos is set as a big favorite, just because they need this one to qualify into the next round. Zvezda is already out, but that will not play any role here. They are a team, which plays hard on defense every single game. This is some kind of rivalry, because the fans hate each other. It will be a very hostile enviroment for Panathinaikos. And pressure of the result combined with aggressive opponent in hostile enviroment might get to them.

Why do you people always harbor such intense hatred towards the fellow man?
: (

[Honeybadger44]

Can't help ourselves. We will rule the world one day. The only thing slowing us down at the moment, is that we have only two wagons of black eyes peas, as our weapon for mass destruction...

[Hardcoar]

That and those accursed Bosnians!

[Honeybadger44]

btw Hardcoar, where are you from? Considering that your English is perfect and is probably your native language, I'd guess you are an Aussie? No? Maybe from UK?

[Honeybadger44]

Feliciano Lopez -3 @1.94 Pinnacle 2 units
Watched Groth's match in previous round. It wasn't a high quality match really. Estrella was sub-par and Groth just served it out. I am bit affraid that Feli could tank a tournament like this one, but if he want's to play here, he should cover this line. Groth looked very uncomfortable during the rallies in his previous match and here it should be even worse, with Lopez testing his backhand all day long.

[Hardcoar]

I just wish I were an American Pig, like the rest of the world...

[Honeybadger44]

I first thought there was some sarcasm in your post and that you actually are american. But then I remembered that you bet at Betfair... Mistery remains unsolved.

[Honeybadger44]

John Isner -3 @1.87 Pinnacle 2 units
I like Gabashvili as a player, but this is simply a bad matchup for him imho. He needs someone to engage him into longer rallies and grind him out, but he will not get much opportunity to do so here. Isner's serve is crazy as it is. And I think in Houston he can be even tougher to break. Surface is fast, but still has some of the caracteristics of clay courts, which means it responds well to kick serve and John has probably the best in the bussiness.
On the other side, Gabashvili's weakness is his second serve. It's almost on WTA level, begging to be smacked for a return winner. So, the way I see this match, is that it will be a serving battle where russian player doesn't stand much chance.

[SirtySree]

John Isner -3 @1.87 Pinnacle 2 units
I like Gabashvili as a player, but this is simply a bad matchup for him imho. He needs someone to engage him into longer rallies and grind him out, but he will not get much opportunity to do so here. Isner's serve is crazy as it is. And I think in Houston he can be even tougher to break. Surface is fast, but still has some of the caracteristics of clay courts, which means it responds well to kick serve and John has probably the best in the bussiness.
On the other side, Gabashvili's weakness is his second serve. It's almost on WTA level, begging to be smacked for a return winner. So, the way I see this match, is that it will be a serving battle where russian player doesn't stand much chance.

Good reasoning. I remember watching their match last year in Madrid. Isner was unleashing that forehand to every one of Gabishvili's 2nd serve and it was a miracle that the scoreline was as close as it was.

[Honeybadger44]

Good reasoning. I remember watching their match last year in Madrid. Isner was unleashing that forehand to every one of Gabishvili's 2nd serve and it was a miracle that the scoreline was as close as it was.

Yup. I had Isner for the sam reasons back then as well. I also rememeber that match. As you said, scoreline doesn't show the real picture. Gabashvili was barely hanging in there. Odds on Isner ML were much better. Around 1.75, but Gabashvili was in form of his life in that period.

[Honeybadger44]

Lamine Ouahab +3.5 games @1.99 Pinnacle 2 units
When you first see this chubby dude, you will probably think he is a recreational player. But, he came to this tournament with 3 futures titles in a row (on clay). Of course, level of quality was much lower there, but he easily dealt with Haase in the first round. Guy obviously has some shotmaking talent. Plays attractive tennis with a lot of flair. Keeps opponent guessing what he is going to do next. Those kind of players are extremly dangerous when they get on a roll and are full of confidence. Ouahab definitely falls into that category, with 16 consecutive wins and with home crowd supporting him, he should be a tough nut to crack.
Besides, GGL might be overrated because of his great tennis on this surface last year. I don't believe he can perform on that level again this year.

[makman]

Lamine Ouahab +3.5 games @1.99 Pinnacle 2 units
When you first see this chubby dude, you will probably think he is a recreational player. But, he came to this tournament with 3 futures titles in a row (on clay). Of course, level of quality was much lower there, but he easily dealt with Haase in the first round. Guy obviously has some shotmaking talent. Plays attractive tennis with a lot of flair. Keeps opponent guessing what he is going to do next. Those kind of players are extremly dangerous when they get on a roll and are full of confidence. Ouahab definitely falls into that category, with 16 consecutive wins and with home crowd supporting him, he should be a tough nut to crack.
Besides, GGL might be overrated because of his great tennis on this surface last year. I don't believe he can perform on that level again this year.

Yeah....he looks like he is one of the spectators invited to court for an exhibition game . But he has a lob with similar accuracy as Djokovic's

[makman]

^^^ This Quahab guy's physical appearance is a distraction for his opponent. Like he starts the match with an early break

[Honeybadger44]

Yeah, he's not the slimest player on the tour. That's for sure. GGL with the (tactical) medical time-out to cool down Ouahab

[Honeybadger44]

Jiri Vesely +2.5 games @1.88 Pinnacle 4 units
Like for real? I know that Vesely has been struggling hard for almost 4 months now, after winning that title in Auckland to open the season. But still, putting him out there as an underdog against fakin Bedene is something I'm still trying to get my head around. I think he matches up really well against Aljaz. Being lefty and being abale to play away from opponents forhend. Having that nice backhand slice, where he gets takes all the pace off the rally and forces opponent to construct it from the start... And it seems like public is loving Bedene here. So I have to go with Jiri in this spot. ML might have some more value, but because of his proven history of lossing already won matches and being unable to close things out, I am taking this generous spread.

[kenz]

Did you watch Vesely yesterday? No bet for me. And I wrote about Bedene going deep this week on page 1 of your thread.

Vesely has that serve and forehand on his side but his BH is very fragile I think

[Honeybadger44]

Yep, saw it. All about the number here. I am not trying to say he is winning this match 100%. Just really liking the value in the offered odds. Bedene can be favored like this only against handful of guys in top 100, imho. Vesely is not one of them.

[kenz]

I think the right bet is Vesely if one will bet on it. I skip. BOL

[Honeybadger44]

Thanks! I hope you'll have a good day with your bets as well

[kenz]

Thanks!

Yesterday I tailed you with Zvezda liked your write-up. Thanks

I am not a fan of women's basketball but since I read Taurasi is injured(broken hand) I took Kursk +6 @1.96 on Wednesday morning for women Euoleague final-four. Now it is around @1.50. Kursk leads H2H 3-1 this year. Will kill some time till men's Euroleague

[Honeybadger44]

Thanks!

Yesterday I tailed you with Zvezda liked your write-up. Thanks

I am not a fan of women's basketball but since I read Taurasi is injured(broken hand) I took Kursk +6 @1.96 on Wednesday morning for women Euoleague final-four. Now it is around @1.50. Kursk leads H2H 3-1 this year. Will kill some time till men's Euroleague

Nice get! I read an interesting story about Taurasi. Russians actually paid her million or so, just to get the rest during the summer, and not play in the WNBA. Sick. I might be sligtly off with that number, but I know that it was more then she would make in WNBA.