[RobRifle]

Sorry man, I will not do write ups for all the matches, like I did yesterday. It was experiment, which didn't give results, which I was hoping for. So, because of that, I don't see point in losing couple of hours, writing those previews... But still, I will have some picks in my usualy thread today and I might throw coupld of leans in this thread as well. Cheers!

good work anyway. really appreciate your efforts and the time you spent

[Honeybadger44]

Frank Dancevic-Mikhail Kukushkin (-2.5 and u/o40.5)
So, Frank is a slight favorite here. That probably has to do quite a lot with the way, he dealt with Ivo in first round. Eliminating such a name on the grass, might give you more respect then you actually deserved, speaking about the odds in the next round. So, from the start, I was thinking about the reasons, for backing Kukushkin here. He is usualy bit underrated player, which can be quite dangerous when he is in form and her shot making ability comes through. But, the spread line seems quite fair to me. But, I am expecting quite a battle between these two. So, initial lean: over 40.5

[Honeybadger44]

Richard Gasquet-Nick Kyrgios (-5.5 and u/o 38.5)
Being aware of Kyrgios' talent, you gotta think about him, keeping this one close, with his powerful serving, throughout this match. But, there is a small problem. Being a young player, he loses focus in some periods of the match, which can be punished by experianced players like Gasquet. What I am especially affraid of, is that he could give up, if he falls behind, because I've seen him doing that previously. Also, variety in Gasquets shot making arsenal, will force him to move around, which is not very easy for a big guy like him. So, he has to stay aggresive and go for the winner, pretty much as soon as he can. First set will be the key for this match imho. If he wins it, he can cause an upset, if not, he will struggle to come back. Initial lean: tie break in the first set.

[Honeybadger44]

Philipp Kohlschreiber-Simone Bolleli (-6.5 and u/o35.5)
Kohlschreiber looked pretty good so far in the this grass court season, but that is also why he is favored by this much. So, there is probably no value in backing him. In how good of a form he is, we can see from his last match, where he took out Sijsling in 3 sets, despite having a lot of problems with this player in the past. But ok, it also has to be mentioned that Sijsling is not in great form at the moment.
Anyway if you can find an angle to take Bolleli here, you should probably do it, because value should be there. I can't think of any at the moment. Initial lean: under 35.5 games

[Honeybadger44]

Lukasz Kubot-Dusan Lajovic (-3.5 and u/o40)
Not a big fan of Kubot. He does have weapons to be succesfull on grass, but he simply cannot be trusted. Lajovic pulled an upset in previous round, eliminating GGL, who is definitely cooling off, after that great period, which he had somewhere through the april. Lajovic is a big fighter. He has a decent serve, but I still don't see him sticking close to Kubot in this one. He doesn't have enough experiance with the grass courts and Kubot will most likely serve a lot to his backhand side. Lajovic plays it with one hand and it is difficult to control those big serves, making a good return, with that one handed backhand. Initial lean: Kubot -3.5

[Honeybadger44]

Denis Kudla-Kei Nishikori (+7.5 and u/o31.5)
Of course, Kei playing at his best, throughout entire match, would mean 100% cover in this one. But, playing against inferior opponents, he tends to have some lapses in his focus, especially in the best of 5 matches. Kudla is a good enough on grass, to take adventage of that and steal a set, if that happens. Initial lean: over 31.5

[Honeybadger44]

Milos Raonic-Jack Sock (-4.5 and u/o40.5)
Even though Milos has some great weapons for grass courts, I am not so sure about him on this surface. I think he is not so confident in his abilities, when playing on grass and he is bit overrated. If Sock jumps to a strong start, he could cause an upset. Initial lean: Sock +4.5 and ML

Jiri Vesely-Gael Mofils (+5 and u/o38.5)
You simply never know, what is going on in Monf's head. He can play one match great and then completely dissapoints in other. He is able to produce some sick shots, but lacks consistany imho. So, Vesely is probably going to look and shorten up the points as much as possible. Maybe some serve&volley, forcing Monfils to make those passing shots. That might be a great gameplan, imho, because as I said, Monfils is not consistant enough to make those in a good enough percentage. He might be tempted to entertain, more then compete and go for his clown shots, rather then choosing the smartest way to win the point. Vesely doesn't have a lot experiance on grass, but a big serving lefty, should be dangeorus to play against. Initial lean: Vesely ML

[Honeybadger44]

Adrian Mannarino-Tommy Robredo (+1 and u/o40)
Line for Mannarino's win has been bet down quite a lot, which I am not surprised. His game on grass is very good. He also have some weapons, which could gave Robredo a lot of matchup problems. Like that slice serve to the opponent's backhand, which bounces very low and it is difficult to do something with it. Still, at these current odds, I even think there is some slight value with Robredo. We shall not overlook the fact that he is better competitior and mentaly stronger, which could decide in close match like this one. under/over line is also bit too low, for a close match up like this one: Initial lean: over 40

Lukas Rosol-Rafael Nadal (+7 and u/o33.5)
Let me tell you something. Throw those revange theories through the window here. I think Nadal is scared here. He knows that he is very vulnerable on the grass courts and he is facing the guy, who beat him last year. Nadal, when not being 100% confident, is not the great Rafa, we all know. I think we will see insecure Rafa here and if Rosol starts strong, and sends a message that he came for another win, he could get it. Initial leans: Rosol +7 and ML

Julian Reister-Denis Istomin (+6.5 and u/o36.5)
TO be completely hones with you, I don't know Reister well enough, to tell you, how his game is suiting the grass and so on. I think that Istomin is playing well enough at the moment, to win this one pretty straight forward. The question know is, if he can put up strong enough performance to cover the spread? Initial lean: under 36.5 games.

Stanislas Wawrinka-Yen Hsun Lu (-6.5 and u/o35.5)
Another pretty possible upset. I love Lu's game on the grass, while Stan is being clearly overrated, ever since he took that title at AO in january. His performances are very inconsistant since then and also, grass is maybe even his least favorite surface. Lu has the tools to make this one interesting. Initial lean: Lu +6.5, over 35.5 and the ML

[fcmb]

Lukas Rosol has won against Rafa in Wimbledon 2012, last year Rafa lost to Darcis(that was his last match for next 7months/sidelined because of knee injury).
I believe that Rafa is confident in himself & knows that Rosol is not top class opponent.
Surprises are always possible but i believe that Rafa is going to win 3:0 or at worst 3:1.

[Honeybadger44]

Marcel Granollers-Santiago Giraldo (-0.5 and u/o40.5)
As I wrote so many time, Granollers is an underrated player on the grass. With playing doubles so much, he improved his serve and volleying abilities which he is using now also in his singles game and can get very handy on grass. On the other side, Giraldo is having a breakout season. The problem is, that his best results were achived on clay and he somehow managed to transfer that respect (from bookies) on grass courts, despite his game is not very good for grass, imho. Nive value with the Granollers. Initial lean: Granoller ML

Jerzy Janowicz-Lleyton Hewitt (+2.5 and u/o41.5)
This is an interesting one. Janowicz has some big big weapons. But despite that, he is playing under expectatiosn on grass courts and what is very interesting, his serve gets in danger, way too many times. For the first round, I tryed to go against the old Rusty, saying that he doesn't have much left in the tank, but he managed to prove me wrong. I give him and edge here, because his tennis inteligence is far superiors then Janowicz's, but it seems like that is already included into the price. Anyway, initial lean: Hewitt -2.5

Feliciano Lopez-Ante Pavic (-5.5 and u/o37.5)
Lopez is bit overrated, becuase of the all good results, which he had priror to Wimbledon. I am leaning towards the other side, because of that Especially because it seems to me that books fail to factor into the line, the fact that, here we should see true battle of the serves, with not many breaks of serve. Lopez can't cover this line, only with her good serving, which so far helped him to win matches on grass. Initial lean: Pavic +5.5

Gilles Muller-Roger Federer (+6 and u/o34.5)
Is it possible to see an upset here? Fed had some problems with big servers in past. And if you combine that with that big server being lefty and going probably mostly serving to his backhand, Roger might find himself in trouble... Initial lean: Muller +6

Jarkko Nieminen-john Isner (+3.5 and u/o42)
Nieminen has a big matchup problem here. his second serve is almost WTA level. It is slow, it is placed in the middle of the service square and it sits up right high enough, for Isner to smash it back for a return winner. But still, Considering how well Jarkko played on grass past few weeks, I think he should get more respect with these odds. Initial lean: over 42 games

[Honeybadger44]

@fcmb

Thank for that correction. I somehow managed to forgot that loss against Darcis...

[fcmb]

Np, you are doing great job with all those pre-match explanations!

[Honeybadger44]

Np, you are doing great job with all those pre-match explanations!

Thanks

[Honeybadger44]

Kevin Anderson-Fabio Fognini (-5 and u/o39.5)
The line seems to be just about right. Fognini lost pretty much all the respect, which he had, because of the very good results in previous season. I don't really see him, getting near Anderson in this one. He has a good shot making ability, but not consistant enough at the moment, to pose a serious threat to a player like Anderson, on grass. u/o line, might be bit too high, becuase Anderson should take this one in 3 or 4 sets. And even if it gets into 4 sets, with Fabio involved, there are more chances to see 6-2 sets, then 7-6... Intial lean: under 39.5 games

Novak Djokovic-Gilles Simon (-8 and u/o30.5)
It is difficult to find reasons, to take Simon in this spot. Yes, Novak struggled a bit in previous round, but he played against great grass court player - Radek Stepanek. Simon simply doesn't have much to offer on grass. His game is built to grind and wait for opponent's mistakes. Not sure if that is a good gameplan against Novak. Despite the line being bit too high and Djokovic having some difficulties to finish of opponents in time, this season... Initial lean: Djokovic -8

Wang-JW Tsonga (+6 and u/o36)
I haven't seen a lot of Wang's matches so far, but it seems like he feels very comfortable on grass courts. He dropped only a set so far, despite playing Youzhny in the previous round. Tsonga in both matches so far needed 5 sets. True, that he had a tricky draw so far, but he could dropp another set or two here. Initial lean: over 36

[Honeybadger44]

Leonardo Mayer-Andrey Kuznetsov (+1 and u/o41)
Both players are surprised with their appearance in the third round of Wimbledon. Mayer took down two favored players in Seppi and Baghdatis (who I predicted that could go far in this tournament), while Kuznetsov eliminated David Ferrer! Just based on public perception, I would say that the value is with Mayer in this spot. Kuznetsov had a top 10 win last round and Mayer is considered to be more of a clay courter, then anything else. Initial lean: Mayer ML

Grigor Dimitrov-Alexandr Dolgopolov (-4.5 and u/o40.5)
Line is probably where it should be. At first sight, it might seem bit too high and Dolgopolov having a good chance to pull an upset, but I don't see it. Dolgopolov likes to play big servers, because he can do a lot of damage there, with his return, bringing the ball back in play and then dominating the rallies. He will not be able to do that here, because Dimitrov has a better suited game for the grass courts and will have an upper hand in the rallies. Initial lean: Dimitrov -4.5

Sergiy Stakhovy-Jeremy Chardy (-1.5 and u/o42.5)
I was pretty impressed with Stakhovsky in the previous round, when he took out Gulbis. He mostly relys on his serve&volley, but unlike the other players of that type, he is not forced to use that style, to hide his incompetence in baseline rallies. He can play from the back of the court, just as well. Chardy on the other side only has a big serve and a big forehand. Stakhovsky much more versatille and understand this surface better then Chardy and has more to offer... Initial lean: Stak ML

Marin Cilic-Tomas Berdych (+3 and u/o42)
Possible upset, but considering how close the odds are set, it will not be a big upset. Obviously, Cilic rased the level of his game, in past few months. That performance against Djokovic at RG was very good. Having Ivanisevic in your corner, for the Wimbledon, it is a pretty cool thing. Expecting a very close battle. Initial lean: over 42

Andy Murray-Roberto Bautista Agut (-7.5 and u/o31.5)
Andy had too easy tasks in first two rounds. Bautista might be the first challenge for him, so he might struggle a bit, at least in one period of the match. Initial lean: Bautista Agut +7.5