Originally Posted by
Honeybadger44
Kevin Anderson-Aljaz Bedene (-6.5 and u/o33.5)
Hm, though one. Bedene is a mug, but his residence is in London for quite some time now, so he should not be that unfamiliar with the grass courts. Also, he is working on getting British citizenship, and good result in Wimbledon would definitely help. So, he should be extra motivated here. Solid serve, good ball striker.. Anderson, tall as he is, could have slight problems with movement, on fresh grass courts. Initial lean: over 33.5
Over 33.5 basically means one set for bedene or two tie breaks. Do you really see that? Tough one for to predict for me
Robin Haase-Vasek Pospisil (-1.5 and u/o41.5)
This seems like a tough one. Pospisil is in crisis, for quite some time now and he struggles to put an end to it. He had a lot of problems with injuries, but I expect him to get back on track soon. Haase is all-round player, but without traditional big weapons for the grass courts. Initial lean: Pospisil +1.5
Coin flip here: Better form vs better fit on grass courts....really don't know, lean towards Haase
Bernard Tomic-Evgeny Donskoy (-6 and u/o36.5)
Tomic was one of the biggest talents of the game, but at the moment, he is too big of a wild card, to be trusted with such short odds, like this. Donskoy is a bit streaky player, and could clip a set of Tomic, if he starts to feel it on his shots. Initial lean: over 36.5 games
Another agree. You cannot back players like Tomic for these kinds of odds. Maybe back Donskoy and hope for another Tomic choke
Filipo Volandri-Edouard Roger Vaselin (+11 and u/o25)
Volandri is a joke. At this level, he isn't even competitive on clay courts, anymore. His only surface. Initial lean: Roger Vaselin -11
-11? Wow....even 6:4 6:2 6:1 would only be cashback....it is still only ERV
Marin Cilic-Paul Henri Mathieu (-6 and u/o38)
After doing so well in Queens club, in past several years, Cilic took an early exit 2 weeks ago. I am not that worried about it. He played well before that. Mathieu has a pretty similar style of play, only that he is at least level below Cilic. Line seems to be set just about right. Slight edge to Cilic. Initial lean: under 38 games.
I really like Cilic's play. Would go with under here too or maybe Cilic-6
Grigor Dimitrov-Ryan Harrison (-7 and u/o33.5)
It seems like Harrison is coming back to life, with these 3 wins in the qualies. He probably got some confidence back, but I think he is still not at the level, where he needs to be, to challange top guys like Dimitrov. Initial lean: under 33.5
Dimitrov really impressed me at Queens. Not a big fan of Harrison. Will be a pretty easy win for Dimi. He should cover the HC if focussed enough
Teymuraz Gabashvili-Tim Puetz (+3 and u/o40)
I have zero knowledge about Puetz's game. But considering, he is set as a favorite here, I guess he has good style for the grass courts. Gabashvili's second serve is his biggest wekness, which is even bigger liability on grass, where you cannot allow many breaks. Still, I like his fighting spirit and that he does not go down easily. Initial lean: Gabashvili +3
Go with Puetz. Has three wins under his belt already. Players out of qualification often have an advantage in these open matches
Steve Johnson-Roberto Bautista Agut (+4 and u/o 39.5)
As I wrote once in my thread, some people have entierly wrong perception about Bautista Agut. His slightly boring game, could lead you to believe he is one of those old school spanish tennis players, which can only play on clay. Well, he actualy can do very well on faster ones as well. He just proved that in Hertogenbosch, last week, where he took the title. He matches up really well against big hitters, which doesn't really have idea how to beat opponent, but simply wants to overpower it. Johnson fits pretty much perfectly in that description. Bautista can defend really well, getting those balls deep into the court. He can take the pace of the ball, when he wants to and he can counter punch. Not big value in these odds, but still... Initial lean: Bautista Agut -4
RBA for me too. I even think there is some value
Luke Saville-Dominic Thiem (+4 and u/o 39.5)
Since I am not huge fan of challenger tour, I know nothing of Luke saville. He has adventage of already having 3 wins under his belt, from the qualies, whle Thiem doesn't have that much experiance on the grass. Either Thiem is going to get quickly familiar with the grass, and dominate with his talent. Or he will struggle to find his footing and timing on his shots. One way or another, it might fall under this line. Initial lean: under 39.5
Never seen Saville. But he had a succesful qualification.Maybe an upset here. Not sure how good Thiems play fits on grass. We will see