[Cappinpicks]

Hate to go against the thread again but becker -130 should get it done on grass

[Cappinpicks]

jason jung vs valery

[Cappinpicks]

barfel puig parlay

[SirtySree]

That match was tight and how can you question somebody's form who's in the final.

Mentioned multiple times that finals are always closer then what the matchup would usually produce in early round and that was the case in almost every final yesterday.

As for questioning someones form in a final, winning or losing does not always indicate how well someone is playing. For someone to be out of form just means they are playing below what their usual standards are. The opponents Rosol has played in the last two tournament are well outside of Rosol's league yet he has struggled to win some of them. Another case was Novak in the French Open, you could say he was out of form as he was playing well below his usual standards despite the fact he made the finals.

[jtoler]

Mentioned multiple times that finals are always closer then what the matchup would usually produce in early round and that was the case in almost every final yesterday.

As for questioning someones form in a final, winning or losing does not always indicate how well someone is playing. For someone to be out of form just means they are playing below what their usual standards are. The opponents Rosol has played in the last two tournament are well outside of Rosol's league yet he has struggled to win some of them. Another case was Novak in the French Open, you could say he was out of form as he was playing well below his usual standards despite the fact he made the finals.

I watched the match Rosol played much better than Vesely and Vesely was tired by the second set while Rosol was bouncing around smiling to the cheering crowd. Its natural that a final would be closer than if faced in earlier rounds since by the time youre in the final youre in better form.

[SirtySree]

I watched the match Rosol played much better than Vesely and Vesely was tired by the second set while Rosol was bouncing around smiling to the cheering crowd. Its natural that a final would be closer than if faced in earlier rounds since by the time youre in the final youre in better form.

From my post, I said making the finals doesn't necessarily equal in good form and every match prior to the one against Vesely he was very average. Even in this match he was average but like you pretty much just said, Vesely was tired and lost it rather than Rosol winning it.

Also the bolded part of your post, if we go by what you said then both players would be in form and cancel each other out making it exactly the same result as it would be in the early rounds so that bit contradicts itself.

[Steamroller]

Puig nice comeback.

[Cappinpicks]

I watched the match Rosol played much better than Vesely and Vesely was tired by the second set while Rosol was bouncing around smiling to the cheering crowd. Its natural that a final would be closer than if faced in earlier rounds since by the time youre in the final youre in better form.

how on earth was dog shit favored? (vesely) same story with jung and all favored turd rank players

[Cappinpicks]

Puig nice comeback.

how did this fat ass lose again to a no name jap...

[JC1186]

how did this fat ass lose again to a no name jap...

1) Zheng is Chinese.
2) She's a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist. About as far away as you can get from a "no name" on grass. She also took Serena to a third set, 9-7, in 2012. serena dominated that tournament in all but that match against Zheng.

Could you be more wrong?

[Cappinpicks]

1) Zheng is Chinese.
2) She's a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist. About as far away as you can get from a "no name" on grass. She also took Serena to a third set, 9-7, in 2012. serena dominated that tournament in all but that match against Zheng.

Could you be more wrong?

puig suppose to be solid, but I guess it was a line like jung -175 to a way better player atleast ranking wise like all the upsets

[Cappinpicks]

garcia as a live dog vs stephens

[fitguy67]

garcia as a live dog vs stephens

agree...just wrote this on matt's thread
________
best value on the board right now is caGarcia @2.625 over Stephens at lad (anything over 2.4 is still solid)

better than a coinflip IMO...Garcia always shows up, and already has bigger scalps than this one who shows up when she feels like it

[Cappinpicks]

agree...just wrote this on matt's thread
________
best value on the board right now is caGarcia @2.625 over Stephens at lad (anything over 2.4 is still solid)

better than a coinflip IMO...Garcia always shows up, and already has bigger scalps than this one who shows up when she feels like it

yea looks nice, any leans on a mannarino/becker parlay? although i probably cant burn more $$$ on the shittier ranked favorite.. even if becker is good on grass

[Cappinpicks]

cornet seems too easy?? guess ill bite 3 units

[fitguy67]

Hate to go against the thread again but becker -130 should get it done on grass

clear as a bell

i'm starting to record now from
investment = I= 10,000
u= $100 (fixed at 1% of I)
bank = B = I +N..........where N = net return
and each play is as called by CP...otherwise will be assumed to be to WIN (not risk) a unit (no sense risking a full unit on a flier that the book "got it wrong"...just buy your "ticket to win your usual fixed-$-prize" at the discounted price the book is stupid/conniving enough to offer)



currently, after 0 days of action: W-L, N__B==>> 0-0, +$0.00__$10,000.00


Day#1
1.1 Becker @1.7692/-130 (G.Pujol).......-130/+100.................U=undecided

jason jung vs valery

1.2 Jung @ 1.76/-131.58 (Rudnev).......-131.58 /+100..........L, S=131.58

note: A=additions to bank, S=subtractions from bank...both maintained as regular (positive) tallies
........so that the all-important N is a simple subtraction of these two figures= A - S,
eg. so far today N = -131.58 (=A - S = 0 - 131.58)...and new B= I + N = 9,868.42

barfel puig parlay

1.3 Barthel*Puig @1.78/-128.21...................-128.21/ +100.........L, S =128.21
so far A=0, S= 259.79, and N = - 259.79
and B = 9,740.21 (=I + N)
_____________

the last two "plays" were NOT clear as a bell...no price attached to it...i had to dig and use pinny closes (and throw in the typical 3% tax on parlays...eg here was 1.34*1.37*0.97=1.781)

From now on,"if there ain't a price... (hopefully the one you actually got it for--a lot of people always mention the book they placed it at, too...to defuse any future "reality checks") then it t ain't a play".
_____________
Let's go CP...
just remember you're starting with a reference bank $10,000...and i'm assuming your plays are to win $100...unless your posts make something else clear

[Cappinpicks]

always end up hitting 1 side of the parlay good to have it straight as well.. mannaFAGO sucking dick not sure why i thought he'd beat ebden LOL

[Cappinpicks]

plz die becker and shit4brain god awful punters who make these dog shit lines

[fitguy67]

yea looks nice, any leans on a mannarino/becker parlay? although i probably cant burn more $$$ on the shittier ranked favorite.. even if becker is good on grass

i hate the shittier ranked favorite (you really like paying more for less quality?)

the way to say "yessir" long-run to whatever "free money" the books are making available to sharp cats like us, who can see the lines are "off" is to buy the better ranked dog (now it's pay less for better quality=the defn of value)

[Cappinpicks]

i hate the shittier ranked favorite (you really like paying more for less quality?)

the way to say "yessir" long-run to whatever "free money" the books are making available to sharp cats like us, who can see the lines are "off" is to buy the better ranked dog (now it's pay less for better quality=the defn of value)

I just figure the dumb as a doorknob bookies would get one right eventually.. but of course they know absolutely nothing about who should be favored

[Cappinpicks]

talk about worst line of the century Pussy french fa.g -250 to a more solid ebden

[Cappinpicks]

all the value on cornet atleast we make a mockery of the books on that mistake

[Cappinpicks]

and beckshit cant even convert a BP, of course we have this instead of germany 3-0

[fitguy67]

results come in wave, CP...just like Red & Black on a casino roulette wheel...even with an edge,

let's say we get the 0 on our side...giving us a 51.35% (19 out of the 37 slots are ours) true prob and the same +100 ticket on each spin (implied prob 50%)...we got a long term edge of 2.7% if we're sharp to keep making the small-pop plays on "Black + 0" and don't get fooled by the public who keep backing the more popular "Red"

if betsizes as a % of total bank are small enough (no higher than 2%...i prefer constantly-adjusted 1% of bank for longer-term disaster insurance)...over time you will grind out a profit with such an edge...

BUT bad (Loss-Rich) runs are inevitable and they pull down the Bank...as are the good Win-rich runs that push it up...

over time it's a constant tug of war...the size of your Bank "keeps score" of it...

if you really are sharp in finding value...it's just like finding a casino that pays on your Black bet when zero comes up...it's long-term money...but it's a bumpy ride
___________
we're getting hammered today kid (Garcia makes us 0-3, with Becker in-play)...but that's just like Red getting hot for a while...stay sharp (in our roulette example...keep putting the sensibly-sized +ev bets on the "B+0" play)...

______________

Suggestion: look more for the "huh...why is _____ such a big dog here"...and if there really isn't a justification for it...take a whack at the probably over-hated (=bigger payout!) dog

better IMO than thinking that the books know who's going to win and trying to dissuade you from buying the winning ticket by putting even more chalk on it...and being stubborn by either buying it anyway, or JUST AS BAD...using it to fill a parlay along with other plays that you also know are over-priced "just cuz you think it'll win"...but playing a big favorite that your analysis says should be even bigger (either su or in a parlay with others like this) that's a different story...

as a practical matter, IMO...it's much easier to find the overly-hated dog...than the under-loved favorite

my approach is to look for the surprisingly-underestimated pooches (who, as you note are often ranked higher and even own the H2H)

[Cappinpicks]

yeah like rosol I see, becker takes 2nd set he shoud have won 1st better win

[Cappinpicks]

cornet seems too easy?? guess ill bite 3 units

if it looks easy it probably is a walk in the park for free money no more trying to be sharp

[Cappinpicks]

manna fa,ggot down in flames as expected -250

[brodie]

lol @ taking jung against rudnev then acting like he shouldve won

[Cappinpicks]

Barfel becker and cornet were the locks, never can trust fat ass against solid chinese women... damn auto fade faggarino too from here

[Cappinpicks]

lol @ taking jung against rudnev then acting like he shouldve won

i said rudnev should have won better ranked dog just like my thread's theory..

[brodie]

i said rudnev should have won better ranked dog just like my thread's theory..

but yet you bet on jung?

[Cappinpicks]

but yet you bet on jung?

like i said last time trying to be sharp the books will never adjust from their retarded ways of donating to squares

[fitguy67]

here's one to think about, from a perspective of why's this guy @2.50/+150...ranking's similar but owns the h2h

http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1205103

ballpark same ranking (353 vs. 321)

but Kondo's 3-0 in games/6-1 sets over Huang in their three 2013 matches (hard=same as tonight's match)

[Cappinpicks]

becker is my hero, will never forget his 9 MP's saved to win in croatia

[Cappinpicks]

i use tennis insight to see the rankings