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Elias playing doubles now. Pairing up with another Swedish kid that almost bet Ramos yesterday but choked closing out the game which u would expect from a kid from time to time.
I think with Elias's singles match tomorrow, I might play a bigger bet then normal. Looking at the speed of the surface and such, I just see everything pointing to a Ymer win tmrw. Will watch the doubles first though before laying any bet.
While I believe there is more value on Ymer than Kukushkin and may make a play on him, looks very amateur to say that 'everything pointing to a Ymer win tmrw'. If everything was pointing to it, why is he $4.14?Originally Posted by SirtySree
When I say everything pointing to a Ymer win, I meant everything looks like it is playing to his favour. Probably should have used that word instead of win. The surface is a touch slow and quite bouncy which will favour Ymer as that will play to his strengths.
Btw anyone watching the doubles match atm? Ymer's backhand return is as lethal as anyones ive seen but he lacks a serve and consistant forehand. The other kid is also doing quite well and is kind of the opposite of Ymer.
ymer and windahl takes the 1st set. taking them @2.5 to win 2nd set. their opponents keep serving to ymer's backhand and he just returns with a winner. hopefully they do this is the 2nd set too and not realise it's his forehand thats a weakness
edit: looks like loss on the bet. got carried away with the 1st set win wen ive never seen them play doubles =.="
anyways, will post up if i hav a play for elias in the singles tmrw. most likey double unit on + games and normal on ml
Last edited by SirtySree; 07-07-14 at 08:01 AM.
Yeah fair enough, had a feeling that might have been the case! Didn't watch the doubles, still tossing up a play on the kid.
Ok so here's a quick write up of my thoughts on the match.
I rate Ymer as a 50/50 chance of winning here so the odds have insane value. For those unfamiliar with Ymer, as mentioned in the 1st post his strengths are his return game and ability to rally. After watching the Lajovic/Montanes and Ymer's doubles match, I saw that the surface is a touch slow and quite bouncy which both play in Ymer's favour. Kukushkin has been terrible this year while Ymer has been insane although against far weaker opponents. Kukushkin has played here twice and lost both times in the first round, whereas Ymer has played once and lost in the first round to Dimi in a close match and his only other appearance in his home country on clay he won the tourney. The way I see this match panning out is that there will be quite a lot of breaks with Ymer being a strong returner but finding himself in trouble on his own serve. The result will mostly depend on which Kukushkin shows up though as when he is at his best, he can play with the big boys but he has not showed that this year so I cant really assume he would just turn it up.
Conclusion, normal bet on Ymer ML and double unit on +4.5 games. However, I am not taking either yet as odds still moving up so might be able to grab +5.5 which is what I really want.
nice easy win for ymer
Yes!!! 6-3 7-5 win for Elias Ymer. Ended up getting it @4 as odds were dropping hour out from the match. One of the most impressive serving matches I have seen from Elias but his general ground strokes weren't at his best so still room for improvement.
Next match is against Sousa which I doubt I will have a play on but if I do, it would only be small. Sousa loves these types of surfaces and only reason why i was so confident in this match is cause Kukushkin absolutely hates these types of surfaces.
sick to my stomach for thinking svito was a trap... lock as usual
Nice thread and nice call. I tailed you on the ML for a pocket change, but hitting a +380 line feels good nonetheless.
Thanks, glad to see some of you made money of this thread which is the end purpose of the thread.
On Ymer's next match against Sousa, line is currently @3.75 on bet365. Not liking it much despite Kukushkin beating Sousa earlier this year which means thinking logically Ymer would then beat Sousa. Also Sousa hasnt won a game properly on clay for quite a while which does tempt me but I think I will just enjoy watching this one today instead of betting it. Unless line moves or I can grab +5.5 at evens, there will be no play from me but hope Ymer wins this.
Ymer loses to Sousa 6-3 7-5 as expected. Put up a brave fight despite being way outmatched here. I am expecting Sousa to do quite well in this tourney as the surface suits him alot, same with Berlocq.
Berlocq and Sousa both into the semi's but against each other. Would have to back Berlocq to win back to back titles here as this surface suits his game way too much but Sousa can surprise too if he can be consistent.
Currently Elias Ymer is playing the qualifiers of a pretty good challenger event so if he makes it thru, it could be quite interesting so will update later on how that goes.
On a side note, my quick thoughts on the Bastad final. Mentioned earlier this type of surface is what Sousa loves to play on and against Cuevas, I would usually make a huge bet on Sousa but it is a final and I am not a big fan of betting finals because they are always closer then what the normal matchup will be. Cuevas is a bit lucky to make it this far and could have lost to Lindell and even Verdasco who lost the match rather than Cuevas winning it, in my opinion. This type of slow surface doesn't overly suit his style of play either.
In conclusion, my play would have been at least a 3 unit play on Sousa if it was in the earlier stages but it is a final so would only play 1 unit if I end up even playing it at all. Match will most likely go 3 sets and be a toss up from there like many finals are.
Money line moving up on Ceuvas..
I'm usually a sucker for line movements but the movement is not only small but also fluctuating both ways although mostly in Cuevas's favour. Also it's a final so I don't really worry about line movements in them as either way, most finals are relatively close. I most likely won't play this one as there will be a lot better plays throughout the night.
Well im taking Sousa only to fade matt as I usually do lol
Looks like I was way off with the Sousa prediction but I didn't get to see the match so not sure what happened. Glad I didnt bet it though.
As for Elias Ymer, he struggled to beat a pretty bad opponent and now he has to verse Garin who I rate highly. He is also 18 and one of the players I like to bet on but he isn't known for coming back when down like Ymer though. Would probably have to say Garin is the better player here though so unless the odds are nice, I wont be playing it.
Ymer loses first set 6-4. Not too confident about him coming back to win this as suggested above but i have to back him here at these odds of 4.33.
I will also give my opinion about some other matches at this tourney like i did with Bastad since Ymer is in it. Other bets I like is Bolt @2.5 to possibly upset Daniel as well as Pavlasek to upset Coric but think that ones a bit less likely.
EDIT: Ymer loses 2nd set 6-2. Match was actually even bt Garin is the bigger server which made the difference. 0/5 break points vs 3/3.
Last edited by SirtySree; 07-14-14 at 04:52 AM.
Hows that workin out for ya, happy u lost
matt u recovered 1% of ur total loss this year so no need to get cocky now. plus ur the one that posted in ur own thread telling ppl to fade uHows that workin out for ya, happy u lost
Thanks for giving me the win today! I was all over Paire!!!!
Elias playing qualifiers in another decent challenger event. Good to see him sticking to these for a while.
Tough game against Kirche coming up. There is value on Kirche but he is too inconsistent to back although has beaten many good clay courters over the last year and took Garin to 3 sets whereas Ymer lost in straight sets.
If Ymer loses the 1st set, depending on the odds I may play it but not liking this match much.
Elias Ymer into the 3rd round of Tampere Challenger against Goffin. Goffin is in really good form so don't see him losing this one. Ymer is @7.5 but dont really see a point putting a bet down here. Will be cheering for him but expect a 6-3 6-2 type scoreline.
Ymer lost 6-2 6-1 so pretty much what I expected. Bad matchup for him and surface not particularly favourable to him.
He has a mach coming up against Baena soon. Would think Baena wins as he has won quite a few impressive matches this year and cross referencing, he has beaten Garin 2-0 sets, whereas Ymer lost 2-0 sets. That being said, this is being played in Czech Republic where the courts are usually slower and bouncier similar to Sweden clay courts giving Ymer a good chance to win. I wont be placing any bets until I see how the surface plays though.
Will post later if I have a play.
Thought the matchup was a tossup and the odds pretty much suggest that. Also another site that I use has it at a 50/50 split also.
From the qualifiers, court seemed like a typical clay court so not extra slow or bouncy as I thought it would be. This favours Baena slightly although he too also prefers slower clay.
I won't be playing this. Might put a small bet if Ymer goes down a set but again, unlikely to play unless I see anything inplay to suggest otherwise.
Can Ymer upset Shitidalgo? Curious about your view
To be honest, I think no but I havent watched any of the matches so not sure how the court is playing. If you have watched some and the court is on the slower side and is bouncy, then Ymer could be worth a play but @3 I wouldn't say there's much value as it's pretty fair.
I also do think price is fair even though I can take it @3.45. I may either take Shitidaldo -3.5 @1.86 or over 21.5 @1.89 @marathonbet for some action. Thanks for your input
I was watching Elias in his previous match vs Semrajc. Elias was playing very well except in second set when he lost his focus.
If Ymer can repeat his game than i believe that this will go OVER 21.5 games.
I also put some money on OVER 21.5 games
The thing with Elias is that he has quite a few big weaknesses that could easily be exploited but most players don't know much about him and there's limit footage of him out there. Once Elias plays more challengers, I think those weaknessses will get badly exploited unless he fixes them soon.
Will always cheer him on but not really too keen to bet on him in challenger events outside of Sweden unless I actually see that the surface is playing like Swedish clay although not many do.
Ymer up 4-0 first set before rain break yesterday. The line was pulled from majority of the books though prior to the match, anyone know if there's an injury to Hidalgo from watching last night?
Decided to finally watch a Ymer match and he was down 6-2 4-0 and struggling big time but now it's 5-5 2nd set. Ymer fighting as usual but I got no bet on this match.
EDIT: Unfortunately ended up losing 7-5. Will say I am surprised that he bet Hidalgo considering the clay looks to be on the faster side which shouldnt favor Ymer. Also what I realised is that Ymer's serve has improved quite a bit and he is actually serving down aces now quite consistently which is a big improvement.
Last edited by SirtySree; 08-16-14 at 05:47 AM.
Just another quick update, Mikael has been tearing up in the 16 and unders but hasn't played in the big boys league in a while.
Elias is now playing on hard courts. Could be interesting as he struggled previous but his serve is a bit better now so could be worth a bet if the value is right.
Will update again if anything comes up but the value will most likely only come if he goes down a set.
Match against Matsui about to start if anyone is interested.
Court looking as fast as hard courts can get from what I have seen so will be interesting.
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