[MagicDiceFlow]

I strongly believe the books are over valuing Nadal tonight. I'm fully aware that he kicked Federer's ass the other night and the books are thinking Stan will suffer the same result but I believe they will be wrong and I'm putting my money where my mouth is by pounding all the Wawrinka spread lines for a total of about $3K in action.

First of all , Wawrinka has developed into a complete package, consisting of a strong forehand, backhand , and of course the service game. I truly believe this man will be in the top three in the world soon. The reason why Fed got killed the other night is due to Nadal kept on pounding his backhand which was again a liability. I guarantee if Nadal keeps doing that to Stan tonight, he will pay the price.

Nadal will run into a totally different Wawrinka tonight than the one of the last 12 meetings between the two. Stan will keep this close and take a set or two. Depending on your book, there should be several different variations of the Wawrinka games spread. Heritage is offering Wawrinka +5, +5.5, +6 and +2.5 sets. I'm betting on all of them across the board including the Over 37.5 and sprinkling a bit on the money line.

I've had a very nice run here during this Aussie Open. I deposited $500 before the tourney started and hammered the books the last two weeks, turning it into over $12k currently. So even if this loses, I'm still up quite a bit. I'm leaving a bit in for clay season but will be cashing out on Monday.

I'm going out with a bang fellas. I have faith in Wawrinka tonight covering the spreads so...... LET'S DO THIS , STAN:



My Account : Current Bets
List of all Pending Wagers -
Please click on a ticket number below to view wager details.

Ticket #	Accepted	Type	Risk	To Win	Short Description
	1/25/2014 2:44AM	Spread	550.00	500.00	Tennis - 82622 S. Wawrinka (Games) +6 -110 for Game
	1/25/2014 5:24AM	Total	525.00	500.00	Tennis - 82621 R. Nadal (Games)/S. Wawrinka (Games) over 37½ -105 for Game
	1/25/2014 5:25AM	Spread	650.00	500.00	Tennis - 8262 S. Wawrinka +2½ sets-130 for Game
	1/25/2014 5:26AM	Spread	500.00	525.00	Tennis - 82618 S. Wawrinka (Games) +5½ +105 for Game
	1/25/2014 5:27AM	Spread	500.00	725.00	Tennis - 82620 S. Wawrinka (Games) +5 +145 for Game
	1/25/2014 5:28AM	Money Line	200.00	870.00	Tennis - 8262 S. Wawrinka +435 for Game

Best of Luck Everyone

[losschaser]

I am right there with you man. Its about time Wawrinka wins ONE friggin set !!! Guy beats Joker in style surely he can muster ONE set

[Bill_Hicks]

Made me tons this tourney, best of luck MDF.

[MagicDiceFlow]

I am right there with you man. Its about time Wawrinka wins ONE friggin set !!! Guy beats Joker in style surely he can muster ONE set

Stan is a different beast this time around , He'll take a set tonight , Chaser. I'm confident about it just like that Li bet I made.

GL man

[MagicDiceFlow]

Made me tons this tourney, best of luck MDF.

Glad to hear that Bill. Good to see guys pounding the books. We're going to go out with a bang tonight.



GL

[poet]

If he is gonna take a set it better be the first one cause he will be toast after that.

[MagicDiceFlow]

If he is gonna take a set it better be the first one cause he will be toast after that.

Hmmmm, I dont think so. He held his composure very nicely against Djoker after Novak took a set. That win will give him confidence knowing that he took several sets off the best hardcourt player in the world so against Nadal, it will be a challenge but not impossible.

[poet]

Yes, but MDfF, it took him several years to get over the Djoker hump, and while that may give him confidence, Nadal is a different animal all together, and I emphasize "animal." The only way I can see Stan winning this thing or making it super competitive is if your hunch about Nadal being overvalued (due to the beating he inflicted on Fed) is correct. Fed looked lost to me even before the match started, and perhaps Nadal is closer to the Nadal who played against Nish and Dimitov. Very hard to know...

[frugalgambler]

Let's hope the crowd will be very pro-Swiss and will not him fade away. Feds did look very frustrated almost right from the start. Let's hope Wawa will be much more fearless.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Yes, but MDfF, it took him several years to get over the Djoker hump, and while that may give him confidence, Nadal is a different animal all together, and I emphasize "animal." The only way I can see Stan winning this thing or making it super competitive is if your hunch about Nadal being overvalued (due to the beating he inflicted on Fed) is correct. Fed looked lost to me even before the match started, and perhaps Nadal is closer to the Nadal who played against Nish and Dimitov. Very hard to know...

True , Nadal is a different animal altogether however Stan does possess the weapons to end points a lot quicker than Fed this year. A lot of these points wont be as physical for Stan , he'll score a lot of cheap fast points off the serve and his backhand. Fed was a sitting dead duck on that backhand side all night.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Also I like the fact that Stan is a huge underdog today and with absolutely no pressure. Wawrinka can be very dangerous in this role with no pressure. He did it to Djokovic twice in a row here when everyone written him off.

All the pressure will be on Nadal tonight.

[Bet10Heinekens]

MDF, you're not worry about a Nadal heavy-spin forehand, that shot cause a lot of havoc to a single-hand backhand players

[phillybadboy]

i will tail small 100x

[tiberiusdush]

MDF did you have Nadal over Murray? hopefully your not underestimating nadal. I think he will win out right. Not sure if he will run through Wawa

[MagicDiceFlow]

MDF, you're not worry about a Nadal heavy-spin forehand, that shot cause a lot of havoc to a single-hand backhand players

I'm not worried about it with Wawrinka. For Federer it caused problems because his backhand has turned into a weak shot over the last couple of years. Wawrinka wont be looking to run around his backhand, that's his strength. I think it will just take a few times where Stan hits clear winners off that backhand that Nadal will look at other places to exploit weakness.

[MagicDiceFlow]

MDF did you have Nadal over Murray? hopefully your not underestimating nadal. I think he will win out right. Not sure if he will run through Wawa

Oh No, definitely not. I dont ever underestimate the best player on the planet currently. I just know that Stan has the tools this year to make it a lot closer than the books think hence why I'm going all out on the spread lines.

[Bet10Heinekens]

Good Luck MDF

Wawrinka's backhand best in the business right now, he can use it for defense and offense

[kaliboyz]

i'm with you MDF!! good luck!

	1/25/2014 10:01PM	Spread	220.50	150.00	Tennis - 8262 S. Wawrinka +2½ -147 for Game
	1/25/2014 10:01PM	Spread	150.00	172.50	Tennis - 82618 S. Wawrinka (Games) +5½ +115 for Game
	1/25/2014 10:01PM	Spread	100.00	145.00	Tennis - 82620 S. Wawrinka (Games) +5 +145 for Game
	1/25/2014 10:01PM	Spread	230.00	200.00	Tennis - 82622 S. Wawrinka (Games) +6 -115 for Game
	1/25/2014 10:02PM	Total	87.47	72.89	Tennis - 82621 R. Nadal (Games)/S. Wawrinka (Games) over 37½ -120 for Game

[yisman]

I like over 3.5 sets -110 at Heritage

[easyliving]

tailed on Wavrinka+2.5 sets hopefully he wins a set

[vyomguy]

books have moved -2.5 sets from -105 to +125…..Are they enticing action on nadal to win in straight sets?

wawrinka hasnt won a set against nadal in his career.

[lucullus]

im watching this on espn whos watching it on the big screen

[Semper Fidelis]

MDF which of these plays would you consider the safest? I have a good chunk of my roll tied up in parlays, a few of which have all won pending a final leg. Which of these has the best chance of hitting? I'm thinking Stan +2.5 or the Over? Thanks again for winning all of us so much money the past couple weeks! It's pretty awesome, especially for those who are new or don't know you yet - they must think you're some kind of tennis god!

[biggie12]

what u guys think about warwinka over 17 games won +115? aint that better then +2.5 sets

[ardacet8]

what u guys think about warwinka over 17 games won +115? aint that better then +2.5 sets

Your only chance getting that and not +2,5 is if all of the 3 sets goes to tiebreak and nadal wins them all. That would be miserable and painfull for Wawrinka to lose like that! But what if Wawrinka wins the first in tiebreak 7-6. And what if then nadal gets hype and wins it 6-3 6-3 6-1? Not quite possible maybe but decide with these ideas.

[biggie12]

Your only chance getting that and not +2,5 is if all of the 3 sets goes to tiebreak and nadal wins them all. That would be miserable and painfull for Wawrinka to lose like that! But what if Wawrinka wins the first in tiebreak 7-6. And what if then nadal gets hype and wins it 6-3 6-3 6-1? Not quite possible maybe but decide with these ideas.

good point

[MagicDiceFlow]

MDF which of these plays would you consider the safest? I have a good chunk of my roll tied up in parlays, a few of which have all won pending a final leg. Which of these has the best chance of hitting? I'm thinking Stan +2.5 or the Over? Thanks again for winning all of us so much money the past couple weeks! It's pretty awesome, especially for those who are new or don't know you yet - they must think you're some kind of tennis god!

If I had to choose one of these, I would probably say the Wawrinka +2.5 sets.

Thanks for the kind words, Semper. I'm no tennis god, just a capper that knows a bit about tennis and happy to share the knowledge.

GL on your bets Semp

[MagicDiceFlow]

books have moved -2.5 sets from -105 to +125…..Are they enticing action on nadal to win in straight sets?

wawrinka hasnt won a set against nadal in his career.

I think its a lot of newcomers looking up the head to head 12-0 Nadal and seeing that he's not won a set. Probably a lot of guys chasing their money from NBA/College hoops losses tonight and books are hanging that juicy plus number to them to entice.

[ardacet8]

5Dimes is giving presents for this match I guess! They have lost the control. Really Wawrinka's ace limit is 6,5 and odds for that was 1,50? (Gift1). Nadal to not win 3-0 (1,833)which is equal to +2,5 sets Wawrinka is gift2. Any asian or european book gives around 1,65(-154) for it.They tried to adjust but couldnt do it actually. So many value bets there for this big match!

[steelheaddan]

Thanks for all the input during the tourney Dice. You have had great write-ups, and a great run. I will be on +6 and the over.
Good luck….

[MagicDiceFlow]

5Dimes is giving presents for this match I guess! They have lost the control. Really Wawrinka's ace limit is 6,5 and odds for that was 1,50? (Gift1). Nadal to not win 3-0 (1,833)which is equal to +2,5 sets Wawrinka is gift2. Any asian or european book gives around 1,65(-154) for it.They tried to adjust but couldnt do it actually. So many value bets there for this big match!

Yep, 5Dimes love to give gifts all the time on big matches. They try to get too cute with some of their props and if you're sharp enough, you can indeed grab some gifts by them. Some of those props equate to the same bet as others but at much better odds.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Thanks for all the input during the tourney Dice. You have had great write-ups, and a great run. I will be on +6 and the over.
Good luck….

You're welcome Steelhead , glad to be of help.

[Semper Fidelis]

If I had to choose one of these, I would probably say the Wawrinka +2.5 sets.

Thanks for the kind words, Semper. I'm no tennis god, just a capper that knows a bit about tennis and happy to share the knowledge.

GL on your bets Semp

Thanks for responding buddy, I very much appreciate it! 5dimes doesn't offer (or the line changed) Wawrinka +2.5 sets, so I took 'Not Nadal 3-0' instead, which is essentially the same exact wager. I used that one to fill the last leg of my bigger, higher paying parlay, and the Over 37.5 games for the other one. I also made a straight wager on Wawrinka +6, and two smaller ones on Wawrinka winning the 1st and 2nd set, my thoughts being that if Stan does indeed finally take a set off of Nadal it'll most likely be one (or hopefully both!) of the first two - I just feel that if he finds himself losing the first two sets there's a good chance he'll implode in the 3rd like Fed did. The only thing that would kill me is Nadal in straights, and I may make a small wager on that just to hedge.

Anyway my friend win or lose, it's been amazing and fun winning so much with you throughout this tournament! And while you may not be a 'tennis god' you are certainly one of the best guys with a lot of class on this forum, constantly bringing valid viewpoints and advising those of us who don't follow tennis as closely as the other sports. Thanks once again man, and we're all certainly looking forward to building our bankrolls throughout this tennis season with you! When I get the mods to fix my PMs I'll start sending you plays or posting more often in your threads to help pay back - I've been making a lot of dough with college hoops, and baseball season is right around the corner, which is probably my best sport (next to college football).

Here's to raking in the dough tonight and many more to come! Cheers bro!

[MagicDiceFlow]

Semper, yep that 'Not Nadal 3-0' is the exact wager as a +2.5 , some books just like writing it like that to make it easier to understand for some people.

I'm looking forward to baseball as well. That's my next best sport that I have good success over the years. College hoops and NBA is tough. I don't see how you hoopsters can handle that incredible variance but to each his own.

Thanks for the kind word Semp and good luck for the season.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Booooom , take that Rafa .....Like MDF said, this aint no Federer backhand tonight, muthafucka!


Cash the Stan set bets fellas