I guess they will yep. Let's assume Stepanek looks crap today and Lajovic plays terrific (but still lose to Berdych), there will be an impact on the final odds.Originally Posted by Taka
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11-15-13 07:26 AM #36
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11-15-13 08:20 AM #37
Well, I took under 28, I don't believe it will hit, but odds were hard to resist @2.37
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11-15-13 08:39 AM #38
Current Bets on Czech Republic
$30 x $3.50 = $105 return
$700 x $3.25 = $2275 return
$500 x $3.10 = $1550 return
TOTAL RETURN: $3930
Current bets on Serbia
$300 x $1.645 = $493.55 return
$201 x $1.87 = $375.78 return
$590 x $1.80 = $1062 return
TOTAL RETURN: $1931.33
Current lays on Czech Republic
$780 @ $2.06 ($826.80 liability)
If Serbia win = $780 less 4.9% = $741.78
$2321 INVESTED SO FAR
Serbia wins = $2321 invested
= $2673.11 return ($352.11 profit)
Czech wins = $3147.80 invested
= $3930 return ($782 profit)
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11-15-13 08:52 AM #39
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11-15-13 09:44 AM #40
Stepanek is tough motherf.cker. Watching the 1st set. Djokovic should still win 6-3 6-4 6-2.
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11-15-13 11:01 AM #41
Thanks Stepanek, 35 yo in two weeks but this guy got balls Originally Posted by tipsadontlikehim
Stepanek/Berdych beat Zimonjic/Bozoljac in straight sets last year (on indoor clay).
For today, free bet
Djokovic - Stepanek: OVER 27 @1.57
1 Unit
WON
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11-15-13 11:41 AM #42
Lavjovic +8.5 1.95 the guy isn't injured either
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11-15-13 12:07 PM #43
Djokovic is playing the doubles tomorrow.
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11-15-13 01:23 PM #44
Middle man, I don't have all the facts and figures you do but I stand to win around 700 regardless of who wins. The total money that went into those bets is around 4,300. I like the Czechs but think they will choke. Originally Posted by MiddleMan
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11-15-13 01:50 PM #45
Luckily Lajovic covers 8.5 games. I was lucky not to take the over, instead of the ATS. There is no way Lajovic will beat Stepanek, even Berdych has a better but still very slim chance of upsetting Djoker. Everything will be decided tomorrow. I think the Czech pair would win on a neutral ground but the crowd might carry Djoker+Zimo through. Still a 50-50 match, I think.
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11-15-13 02:04 PM #46
Cant believe Im hearing all these compliments about Stepanek! Is he the same guy I've been watching for years? He's been a flake for ever, and his antics on the court borderline embrassing. Has to be one of the most disliked players on tour.
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11-15-13 02:09 PM #47
Step plays great for his country, and Lajovic is just way out of his depth. Stepanek has won a Davis Cup already, Federer will never will. As to who is liked and who is not liked, I do not care that much. What I want is to win my bets. But, I would take Step's heart over the likes of likable cheese boys any time of the day.
Last edited by frugalgambler; 11-15-13 at 02:13 PM.
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11-15-13 02:24 PM #48
likeable cheese boys.....haha! Who are the likeable cheese boys?
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11-15-13 02:32 PM #49
it is not a matter of likeable or not, yep Stepanek is not likeable but we bet here
By the way if Stepanek is too exhausted after the doubles, Rosol would still beat Lajovic IMO
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11-15-13 02:38 PM #50
he probably meant guys like Dimitrov or Federer Originally Posted by Regul8er
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11-15-13 02:46 PM #51
By the way, there is a fair chance that Tipsarevic will play the deciding rubber (if Czechs win the doubles). Lajovic playing Berdych could be a tactical move to save Tipsarevic for the last match. But even then, Stepanek should be a favorite.
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11-15-13 03:23 PM #52
I believe that is incorrect - not 100% certain, but I think this is right ..... While you can substitute anyone on the roster from singles to doubles, etc. - they have to be on the roster when you announce who will be involved for the weekend.
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11-15-13 03:57 PM #53
Tipsarevic is not on the roster ?! Boy was I wrong to listen to those dummies on the tennis channel. They were discussing the possibility of Tipsarevic playing during the Berdman match. OK, Lajovic it is. Serbia needs to win tomorrow or they lose. Thanks EP36 !
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11-15-13 05:12 PM #54
Yeah from everything I read he is not on the roster. I think you can only list four altogether, so it is Djokovic, Lajovic, Bozo & Nimonjic.
Again not 100% on this, but from what I have read and the DC I have watched before ... I think it's accurate.
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11-15-13 06:43 PM #55
That's very good. Well done. Originally Posted by poet
I was far too hasty getting on Serbia at $1.64. I should have saved that $300 and got them at a much better price. I had a strong feeling it would go beyond $1.70, so I'm kicking myself for not having the extra $300 on $1.87 or the $2.06 lay. It's only $80 worse off, but it's still $80.
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11-15-13 06:56 PM #56
To make us feel worse, now Serbia is at +109 on pinnacle (which I can't bet on). But 5 Dimes will probably post similar odds soon. I didn't think I'd have a chance to hedge once the matches started, after Byrd boy and Djoker won their respective matches. Live and learn, I guess. Had I known, I might have waited, even if I don't trust Birdshit. Originally Posted by MiddleMan
Last edited by poet; 11-15-13 at 08:38 PM.
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11-15-13 07:37 PM #57
Is Djokovic playing the doubles tomorrow? By when do they have to announce it, and how do you think that would affect the possible outcome of the match?
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11-15-13 09:13 PM #58
I think they have to announce it a few hours before the match; not too early I think. 5d still has Bozo+Zimo vs Hajek+Rosol and Bozo+Zimo are +140 even against them
When they had all the substitutions in the FedCup finals, 5d never adjusted the names/lines so all bets in the 2nd day were canceled. Man, I hedged too heavily on Serbia. Djoker+Zimo will be at least +150 against Step+Berdman; then Lajovic will be ~+300-+400 against Step. I hedged at -130, stupid move in this case; but who knew that Lajovic is not up to par (well, smart people did, LOL).
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11-15-13 09:32 PM #59
Still think the strategy is wrong, but I would be surprised now not to see Djokovic in doubles. Both teams seem to be hell bent that the doubles rubber is pretty much the decider so it would be surprising to see Serbia not go with him.
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11-16-13 12:20 AM #60
Do you guys think I will be able to get Czechs to win the Davis Cup at a better price than I can get them right now (-128)? I am thinking of hedging the last leg of my 8 team parlay which has Serbia winning...
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11-16-13 12:22 AM #61
By the way, I just saw that Pinnacle already has Djokovic playing the doubles with Zimonjic! vs Berdych and Stepanek of course.
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11-16-13 12:31 AM #62
What are the odds on Djoker+Zimo ? I think it will be a huge battle tomorrow and the Serbs might win it after all. Will be fun to watch. I am still not regretting that I hedged: 5d might not post any updated lines at all. They are slow like that, and I cannot use pinnacle.
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11-16-13 12:48 AM #63
As of right now on Pinnacle:
Berdych/Stepanek: -156
Djokovic/Zimonjic: +138
Also:
Serbia to win Davis Cup: +110
Czech Republic to win Davis Cup: -124Last edited by Taka; 11-16-13 at 12:57 AM.
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11-16-13 01:02 AM #64
I think it's interesting that Serbia series price is only +110, while the doubles price is +138, even if I don't see Serbia winning the Cup if they lose the doubles tomorrow. Think books know something we don't? Tipsarevic stepping in for Lajovic on Sunday, in case of a loss tomorrow? If that is possible at all...
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11-16-13 09:02 AM #65
It's +150, not +110. I'll have a bite. Series price Originally Posted by Taka
Last edited by Marshall Tito; 11-16-13 at 09:06 AM.
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11-16-13 10:02 AM #66
I do not understand your surprise. Lajovic will have non-zero chance to win tomorrow, probably he will open at ~+300 odds. Djoker to win is probably going to be -700, or so. Originally Posted by Taka
Anyway, watching the doubles. I cannot believe Djoker decided not to play today. Bozo is being completely outclassed. Wow, Djoker should have stepped up and taken that risk.
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11-16-13 11:42 AM #67
Wow, if I knew Chokavich was gonna pull this I would have never hedged!? What a gutless decision. Still can't believe it, unless they thought they had no chance with Djoker either, but I don't know how they can think that. All the free points on serve Djoker would have gotten them might have changed the dynamics on its own.
Last edited by poet; 11-16-13 at 12:33 PM.
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11-16-13 12:22 PM #68
I think it shows you that Djokovic was honest in his assessment of himself coming in ... he said he was exhausted. I think Serbia also had to realistically look at what they had on the table .... doubles in which even with Djokovic, they would have been looking at an extremely difficult match-up with Djokovic-Berdych in singles being a huge match regardless of today's outcome. Was either going to be a clincher or an elimination match and with Djokovic feeling fatigue, giving him a day of rest before facing off against Berdych was the best decision IMO. If he played today and they lost and he had to turn around tomorrow? Their chances of getting to the 5th rubber with it meaning anything would have gotten much slimmer IMO.
That's why Davis Cup is a pretty cool set-up, there is a lot of strategy into it that people don't think about because you don't see anything like this in the regular ATP season.
Lajovic may have little chance in most people's mind if the 5th rubber means anything ... but clay is probably his best surface and even though Stepanek has years and miles of experience in clutch situations ... you never know how the situation may effect a visiting player, especially if Lajovic gets off to a good start and wins a set. First things first. Djokovic has to win.
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11-16-13 12:25 PM #69
Czech Republic has won the tie
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11-16-13 12:30 PM #70
EP36, they are playing on I_Hard not on clay, albeit on a slow I_Hard. I watched the singles matches. Stepanek is no Berdych of course but Lajovic is just completely out of his league. Stepanek hang tough with Djoker in the 1st set. Unless the crowd gets to Step, Lajovic will have no chance tomorrow. As to Djoker's fatigue, yeah well, tough titties; his decision not to play today likely cost Serbia the match. I am just mad at him because I hedged too much on Serbia, like poet did.
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