[lucasdawg]

my parlay for tonight

parlay1:

T Kamke 1.64 v P Lorenzi 2.17
An Kuznetsov 1.37 v R Harrison 2.95

parlay2:
P Riba 3.06 v L Rosol 1.34
J Nieminen 1.40 v PH Mathieu 2.80

might consider: J Benneteau 1.28 v R Berankis 3.45

any suggestions on: C Berlocq 1.80v J Isner 1.95

im kinda keen to place a play on the underdog for this match.

BOL everyone

[baconbets]

id avoid any isner match until he gets deeper into the tournament and shows some effort, but if you had to make a bet, i like taking berlocq's game spread at -1.5. the match score could very well be something like 2-6, 7-6, 2-6, 6-4, 7-5, with isner winning. the idea is that isner wins each set by a smaller game margin than his opponent does. on the sets that isner "starts slowly" or just plain "takes off," he could very well lose by more than 1 break. in this example, isner wins in 5 sets, but wins 24 games to berlocq's 27, and this is assuming berlocq actually loses the match. in contrast, i think it is much less likely that isner can lose the match but still cover the game spread. berlocq is more likely to cover the game spread win or lose.

on my book, both players are +500 to win in 5 sets. the over is 41.5 games at -135. 41.5 games covers most 4 set outcomes, which means if you like the over, you probably also think it is going to 5 sets. betting each player's 3-2 set prop pays a net +250 (bet 1$ on each prop, 2$ total, to win 5$), so if you think this will be a long, close match you are better off taking both set props than the over.

[CaptainOmar111]

id avoid any isner match until he gets deeper into the tournament and shows some effort, but if you had to make a bet, i like taking berlocq's game spread at -1.5. the match score could very well be something like 2-6, 7-6, 2-6, 6-4, 7-5,

+1

[lucasdawg]

the only thing that supports me thinking to make a play on isner is that i watched berlocq v PH mathieu, and even though he is a clay player he didnt seem like he was in it at all, which makes me think that isner can get the better of him if he can play his shots right. thanks for the great write up

[Bet10Heinekens]

GL Lucas

with you with the E.R.V. play

[lucasdawg]

GL Lucas

with you with the E.R.V. play

i just actually took him out and replaced him with An Kuznetsov v R Harrison at similar odds.

[lucasdawg]

also goodluck to you B10 even though you probably wont need it haha

[lucasdawg]

should have stayed on E.V.R , harrison killing.

[Demonata]

kuznetsovs playing like shit

[baconbets]

i dont have a stream of the kuznetsov match. hard to tell from the stat line what the problem is.

in contrast, klizan sucking against michael russell of all people. 45% first serve might explain that.

[Demonata]

i dont have a stream of the kuznetsov match. hard to tell from the stat line what the problem is.

in contrast, klizan sucking against michael russell of all people. 45% first serve might explain that.

kuznetsov could not win a break point to save his bacon.

[Demonata]

kuznetsov up 40-0 on serve and loses 4 straight points.