Originally posted on 05/26/2013:

id avoid any isner match until he gets deeper into the tournament and shows some effort, but if you had to make a bet, i like taking berlocq's game spread at -1.5. the match score could very well be something like 2-6, 7-6, 2-6, 6-4, 7-5, with isner winning. the idea is that isner wins each set by a smaller game margin than his opponent does. on the sets that isner "starts slowly" or just plain "takes off," he could very well lose by more than 1 break. in this example, isner wins in 5 sets, but wins 24 games to berlocq's 27, and this is assuming berlocq actually loses the match. in contrast, i think it is much less likely that isner can lose the match but still cover the game spread. berlocq is more likely to cover the game spread win or lose.

on my book, both players are +500 to win in 5 sets. the over is 41.5 games at -135. 41.5 games covers most 4 set outcomes, which means if you like the over, you probably also think it is going to 5 sets. betting each player's 3-2 set prop pays a net +250 (bet 1$ on each prop, 2$ total, to win 5$), so if you think this will be a long, close match you are better off taking both set props than the over.