Originally Posted by
baconbets
i saw nadal try some fairly pathetic drop shots against federer. its almost like he is self-conciously trying to find ways to end points faster, which suggests he isnt that condident about his health and fitness relative to the amount of activity he has had.
nadal is now 2/3 on my book for futures, which i believe is -150. that is basically like saying the field is +125 or so. with consideration for freak injuries, upsets, or a djokovic final, there just isnt any value in -150 on nadal. you may as well take his 3-0 set prices all the way to the semis until the competition gets good, letting your earnings compound on the way.
a good futures bet is something that carries the option to hedge out once you get into the later rounds. djokovic wont be higher than +200 if he faces nadal, and depending on who is showing good form, djokovic could be as low as evens. may as well wait for the nadal/djokovic final and lay big coin on nadal. by comparison, a futures bet causes unnecessary exposure.