[Hardcoar]

Perhaps. To be fair the only reason he even won 1:st was Boner choking. That was far more severe than 2:nd...

[EaglesPhan36]

Verdasco up 5-2 in TB and chance to serve out the match? That would be more severe than choking to serve out the 1st set IMO.

Blew another break on 3rd.

[EaglesPhan36]

Choke completed. Dude better get rolled in doubles to even me out.

[EaglesPhan36]

Cure my Nando-itis.

Add...

ATP Bogota: Karlovic -138

[dk70]

Cure my Nando-itis.

Add...

ATP Bogota: Karlovic -138

Did Karlovic play yesterday like Marinaro did?

[ParlayininHTown]

Cure my Nando-itis.

Add...

ATP Bogota: Karlovic -138

I'm loving Dr. Ivo at that number in Copa Coca, too, but it almost seems too good to be true. I hope the cartels didn't back Mannarino.

[EaglesPhan36]

Neither Karlovic or Mannarino played singles yesterday. Doubles. Yes. # dropped about 20 cents on Ivo, but most lines moved some today.

Verdasco f-ed me sgain. Pulls out of doubles.

[EaglesPhan36]

Add...

ATP Parlay +112
(Bogota) Pospisil + Tipsarevic

[EaglesPhan36]

Ivo not clean today. Battling, but being pressed.

[Hardcoar]

Tell me about Tipsarevic pick at these odds please...

[EaglesPhan36]

What's to tell? It's called two high prices combined for lower amount risked. This is how parlays work chief.

[Hardcoar]

No it isn't at all. That changes nothing correlating to the individual bets.

Is there any reason whatsoever to motivate taking Tipsarevic at those odds?

[ParlayininHTown]

Ivo not clean today. Battling, but being pressed.

He brought the extra onions to the tiebreaks, though. Nice for me to cash this biggie after the Haas debacle. Got caught up with work and missed out on parlaying Tipsy with Kevin Anderson, so I guess I'm a Giraldo fan today.

Any particular reason why you didn't touch the Anderson match, EP?

[EaglesPhan36]

It anyone is taking -200 odds or greater as single plays, you're nuts to begin with. I am picking winners and matching them for better odds. Quit splitting hairs. I think you know by now that 75% or more of tennis favorites get stuck with ridiculous price tags.

[EaglesPhan36]

Doctor, Doctor gimme the news of another W.

Add....

ATP Bogota Doubles: Karlovic-Moser +110

[Hardcoar]

It anyone is taking -200 odds or greater as single plays, you're nuts to begin with. I am picking winners and matching them for better odds. Quit splitting hairs. I think you know by now that 75% or more of tennis favorites get stuck with ridiculous price tags.

I disagree. One should never include in a parlay a bet one is not prepared to wager as a single. I know that's what you and most other parlay crazies do but that doesn't mean it's a good idea or its "purpose" by any means.

Including a shitty bet in a parlay doesn't make it – or the parlay – any less shitty. It does create the illusion of it, however...

[face]

ep is hot!
i will cool him off and tail

[EaglesPhan36]

Damnit Face

[face]

sorry

[mrlif1]

...

[mrlif1]

...!!!!....

[mrlif1]

you can come out now face....ep sorry for the clutter

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Profit: +10.56

[EaglesPhan36]

Makes sense for me with the Almagro future to hedge a unit on Fognini @ +500 to win the tournament. Get a finalist either way.

Almagro @ +800
Fognini @+500

Either one loses +200 for the Haas future which already is gone + the original investment, so stand to have Almagro +600 in the Final or Fognini +300. Really no idea what the line would be for either against Federer. Obviously both would be dogs. Considering Delbonis is +485, and Mayer was around +400, the Almagro future would hold better than the prospective finals price. Fognini, jury is out. I think based on his play, he deserves to be well under +300 - but I don't think he will be. Still, this makes the most sense to me.

Obviously if Delbonis pulls a stunner, than we've got a fantastic price on either - but I don't think Delbonis is going to pull it off. Fortunate to win today and not that Federer is unbeatable, but it's still a big deal for the kid to go against him and nerves could play a large part.

[Noleafclover]

I disagree. One should never include in a parlay a bet one is not prepared to wager as a single.

I'm not prepared to wager something at -500 as a single that I think should be written up at -750, despite the value, because of the risk of catastrophic loss (since I can put it in a parlay and reduce that risk). And since parlays have a cumulative effect on value, I'm ahead to play anything in a parlay where I have a substantial edge. So how does limiting variance and increasing value become a bad idea?

Only if you think the line shouldn't be written up at -500, which was the point you made in the rest of this post, but thats probably where you and EP disagree, and the rest of it is talking past each other.

[Hardcoar]

Did you ever stop to think parlays also have an equal cumulative effect on risk!???

You may be reducing the amount risked, but you're also exponentially increasing the risk of losing.

It becomes a bad idea the second you make negative value bets as part of a parlay that you would not make as singles – the value neither increases nor decreases by parlaying bets.

You need to realize your perceived "substantial edge" (LOL!) is all in your mind.

Also, that's the thing about my questioning Phanboy's reasoning – he said himself he doesn't find value in it but still shoves shit into a parlay and thinks somehow the value of the bet magically increases, which is an entirely flawed prospect altogether, and it annoys me how many people have issues grasping basic concepts of probability and wagering despite some experience.

So it's not a matter of disagreeing about the bet's value at all. I asked him why he found value in the bet and he said he doesn't. Following that, I'm doing my best to explain why it's f*cking retarded to then use the self assessed shitty bet in a parlay.

[Hardcoar]

Makes sense for me with the Almagro future to hedge a unit on Fognini @ +500 to win the tournament. Get a finalist either way.

Almagro @ +800
Fognini @+500

Either one loses +200 for the Haas future which already is gone + the original investment, so stand to have Almagro +600 in the Final or Fognini +300. Really no idea what the line would be for either against Federer. Obviously both would be dogs. Considering Delbonis is +485, and Mayer was around +400, the Almagro future would hold better than the prospective finals price. Fognini, jury is out. I think based on his play, he deserves to be well under +300 - but I don't think he will be. Still, this makes the most sense to me.

Obviously if Delbonis pulls a stunner, than we've got a fantastic price on either - but I don't think Delbonis is going to pull it off. Fortunate to win today and not that Federer is unbeatable, but it's still a big deal for the kid to go against him and nerves could play a large part.

I more or less agree with you. If Mayer couldn't finish Fed'Ex off playing like that, Boner sure as hell won't be more likely to. Federer played really well yesterday, despite a few shaky patches. The level of play in that match was outstanding!

[fitguy67]

i just "greened out" with equal profit whatever happens in the Fognini/DelBonis final...

this calculator comes in handy for those who'd like to do similarly...

http://www.bobbybucks.com/hedge_calculator.php

[EaglesPhan36]

July 20th
ATP Bogota: Pospisil +3 [-130]

[EaglesPhan36]

Popsicle's servy stinky stink today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Profit: +9.26
That'll be enough for me this week. Just gonna enjoy the green out on Fognini tomorrow against Delbonis. Good luck to you boys on your Sunday.

[Noleafclover]

Did you ever stop to think parlays also have an equal cumulative effect on risk!???

You may be reducing the amount risked, but you're also exponentially increasing the risk of losing.

Yes, thats the trade: increased likelihood of a loss for decreased cost when you do lose.

the value neither increases nor decreases by parlaying bets.

No, they have a cumulative effect on value and disvalue. See the first table here for the increased +ROI or -ROI they lend if you have an edge or give one to the books: http://www.twominutewarning.com/parlaybets.htm . That, combined with the smoothing effect on variance that comes from a reduction of risk of catastrophic loss, is my argument for parlays at longer odds.

As for what EP said, I'm new here but it sounds like he doesn't take a value perspective at all? In either case, I'm more interested in saying - hey, there's ways parlays can be useful, and here they are.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't get caught up trying to find better "value" with a pick vs. another pick. It's my personal style. I take what I think will win, period. You can say there is value in just about any pick based on your own criteria, while another person will say the pick holds no value due to their criteria - so value to me is a moot point on a pick because it's a variable just like every outcome of a game, set or match can vary.

I've had this conversation a zillion times with different people. Bottom line, we all want to pick winners and win bets. You can have 20 "value" bets that go 0-20. I can have 20 bets I take because I think they are going to win and they go 0-20, doesn't make anyone's style better or any bet dumber than the next.

I also do not believe in playing lines over a certain point as single plays as a matter of self preservation of my bankroll and sanity. If you're going to call a bet stupid, these would be the ones I would say are stupid ... like anyone who laid the wood on Federer ML this morning. I'm sure there was "value" in that because of whatever criteria someone used. End result, big money loss.

[fitguy67]

HC, u know as well as i do that EP plays parlays a relatively small % of the time...and never more than two items at a time...he's hardly "Mr. Parlay"...

if u want to rattle someone's cage about the wisdom of stringing together shopping lists of ridiculously-priced Time-Magazine favorites...u know what thread to visit...the thread with all the capital letters and exclamation marks (but NEVER a positive sign on the odds, lol)

[EaglesPhan36]

Watching some of this Bogota tourney on replay. It really is a Challenger in disguise. Crowd so small for the non-Colombian matches it's funny. It's like a high school tennis tournament with 12 people watching. At least the final should be populated with Falla in there. Rootin' for Dr.Ivo to get it done. Only pissed that 5Dimes did not update tourney futures like they did with Hamburg after each round because I was on the Doc's jock this week after he won a couple and he looked locked in motivation wise.