High juice on a guy that most think will get destroyed, but he does have a history of playing at least one close set with Djokovic(although before Novak reached #1). A lot of speculation on how Monaco will respond after his previous wins and his birthday-I stopped giving a shit about my birthday 20 years ago but that's just me. I think he continues to play hard and with a 6 game spread, Novak cannot afford any flat spells. We will see- I have made worse bets.
Hampton grew up on the hard courts at O'Connor Tennis Center and Lagoon Park-she has decent percentage on clay from racking up a couple of years ago on the the dregs of the circuit in Jackson,Dothan, and other places. Hate betting against the home state girl, but I give the edge to Stephens here.
Making a small pure hatred bet against Fagnini as he returns to court--no doubt he has had plenty of time to produce some nice glamour shots for his gay ass web site
1.5u Voegele/hradecka over 21-120
1.5u Wozniak/zahlalova strycova over 20-125
1u dushevina+4.5+125- she used to own the French frump and with the dirt not being bartoli's best surface..
1~11.74 today's lottery ticket is for entertainment purposes only and is a round robin parlay of 2s,3s and a 4 of the above plays with a total risk of 1 unit.for the sake of simplicity,I will grade it as one loss and deduct the actual amount.
Overall Wozniak is having a good year at 20-7 or so and while some of those wins are at lesser events(Nassau for instance),she took radwanska to the the brink in dubai so you know she has the patience to out rally safarova. She has already won a 3 setter against mchale and followed it with the tiebreak win against strycova so she is handling the pressure of tight matches at this event. I don't read too much into safarova's destruction of lucic though- I saw lucic at Pelham a couple of years back and she can be all over the place. I can see why safarova is tempting at -140-i thought the price was going to be a bit higher.
a better question would be why i bet on pavlyuchenkova--i felt 2 out of 3 was likely with my other picks so i added her--as horrible as she has been this year, i went against basic tennis betting sense and played against the unpredictable petrova thinking pavly has to start winning at some point....no she doesn't...at least she should have plenty of energy for doubles after what should be a 45 minute match
1u hercoq-120
.1u to win 1.17 karlovic---after nalbandian's showing,might as well hedge the other parlay--it is amazing how I can zero in on the high priced chump of the day and put him in a parlay
2u cervanak-175 cervanak lives on the clay with 20 matches on the dirt already under his belt,molchanov likes the hard courts better and makes his 2012 clay debut here
1u albot+145 dont see why this line is not a pick 'em so I will simply take the value here
1u vagnozzi +110 hajek won 6-4 in third in only matchup but I am going with the fresher guy here as vagnozzi has breezed through first 2 rounds while hajek has played a 3 setter and then 2 tiebreakers yesterday
1u suarez Navarro + 155
1u Suarez Navarro over 20.5
I like csn in a tight match here, but if she does happen to lose,she won't go quietly so a play on the over as well
1u berlocq-175
Hate the high juice but I don't see any reason to mess this up with a parlay-even with his big serve, how many times did lorenzi break Lopez or have him in trouble-it will be worse today
1u kanepi-130
This is a fair price to fade jankovic- kanepi has the edge in the h2h and there is no way you can trust jankovic's motivation
1u cornet+7-115
I get sucked into these big game lines because it just takes one lull from the favorite to give you the cover- woz worked parmentier yesterday but cornet has a decent history with Caroline so we will see
Blumenau parlay
1~1.35 capdeville/veic- it will probably lose like most of my parlays but at least I won't have to worry about someone like pennetta mailing it in
19-26-2 -4.43u w/ berlocq and above parlay pending
1u Russell+4-110
.5u Russell+255
I remember watching russell against labadze at the 2001 brook highland event where they set a record for most consecutive balls hit down the line as they avoided each other's forehands-a few weeks later he blew the match points against kuerten in the French--Harrison obviously has the bigger game but he can become agitated and lose focus(cue the tape from the Simon match)-- thinking Russell can keep him out on the court and use his experience to frustrate the youngster enough to certainly keep it close and maybe steal this one
1u isner-1.5 sets-120
1u berlocq-175 add another unit
Looks like beygelzimer's run is legit as she takes the first set-- just met Alexandra Stevenson-- extremely polite and still looks very young even though she is over 30. Meeting her will make you stand up straight-she is every bit of 6'1.
I use 3 books:
5 dimes(one full set)
Abc(one ball served)
Betsonny247(2 full sets)
I lost one unit on the berlocq bet as I split the bet between 5dimes and bs247(my local bookie's site)-- still annoyed because I had just worked my way into the black--interestingly,my local offers the -1.5\+1.5 sets option more often than 5dimes and allows more parlay options than abc--
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
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