1u daniilidou+5.5+100 ddou is definitely no dirtballer but she is a seasoned veteran-- playing more against kuznetsova as she just lost the 4th singles rubber against Serbia which allowed the Serbs to win--2 days later she is in morocco and you have to doubt we will see her best tennis early on
1u jaziri+5-115
.5u jaziri+340
Hope jaziri is 100 % but will willing to test Anderson on clay without hesitation and despite his big serve
Like the over in the pavlyuchenkova/georges match as I think they will continue their patchy play from the weekend
Banner day including the following:
Peer loses match point and then the game that would have given me a push
Rodionova wins first set as an underdog then gets injured and retires
Trungelleti loses 7-5 in third to opponent he has owned in the past
Daniilidou gets out to 3-0 in the second set and then collapses
Bolelli as a -900 favorite sucks rooster and then retires after the first set
Lots of other shitty picks
3u nishikori-115--- kn's recent win over Ramos was no fluke in my opinion--his greater power pushed Ramos back and he easily controlled the rallies--Ramos has a weak serve which nishikori will threaten repeatedly--kn did have a brief lull(much like today) in the second set but was able to regain his edge and finish him off
2u barthel-110 Mona hung tough against ai--first set was all but lost but she righted the ship and ended on a nice run--she also never cracked in the second set as she always trailed by a game and never had a break point on ai's serve---playing in her home country should keep her motivated to keep rolling
2u medina garrigues+100 don't quite get the line but not going to second guess backing her-
1u stebe+4-135
.5 stebe+210
Don't see ferrer breaking a lot after he only broke Lopez once today--ferrer did face only 2 break points on his own serve but raonic will pose a bigger threat to break--raonic +3.5 is a slight hedge if milos breaks through and wins 4 and 4 or so
Kvitova-2.5-115
Sharapova lucky to be here today after stosur let the match get away--maybe she is a little fatigued today after yesterday but you don't rise to her level by not being able to string tough matches together-- I still like kvitova to pull out a couple of close sets and think it is unlikely we see 2 tiebreakers like yesterday
History on clay,current form,h2h,ranking,better looking girlfriend all dictate greul
Thorpe has 2 wins over a then 17 a-v but a-v dusted her last year and is in better form with a straight sets win over rezai--WTF has happened to her by the way---while thorpe struggled to beat an unranked aruajo
I am ignoring their lopsided h2h meetings- they have never met on clay anyway--both have been playing a lot of 3 setters lately so I am going to play into that trend--thinking we we will see the typical breakfest and I suck/you suck style common in wta
2u cipolla/ junqueira under21-130
Junqueira steps up from the challengers again to a level where he has not had much success-at 33 years of age,he is not going to surprise us with his level of play--cipolla has definitely had more success at this level and is currently sitting at a career high ranking--I looked hard at -4.5 games because sometimes the favorite will sleepwalk through a tight set and then roll the next 2 but I can't see cipolla dropping a set
I should probably quit 5 dimes because there is way too much I like-all for 1u
Fognini-155
Falla/bachinger over21.5-125
Kubot/rosol over22-120
Cadantu/rybarikova over21-118
Amanmuradova/krajicek over21-122
minella+7.5-105
yakimova+6-110
And the Billy,you are so far from home play(10 betpoints if you identify the source of that reference)
Sousa+175
Price is rising on Harrison which I completely understand with his 16 career wins on clay--A more experienced Russell made Harrison look out of his element and now sousa comes along with over 300 matches on the dirt under his belt--sure Harrison could win,but at this price I will bite
Facing today's music--some crap picks for sure but yakimova had game point in the first 4 games of the second set and lost them all--she should have split sets and covered--I thought I was sitting pretty on the falla/bachinger total after falla held the first game of the second--if he wins 2 more games I cover--he wins one--
1~.96 nalbandian/errani/kanepi
This is a really brave parlay---waste of time to write about -400 and -900 chalk--king squeaked by larsson in the first round and with her current clay resume she is an auto fade as kanepi has 4x the experience on dirt-watch king win now
Wasn't trusting nalbandian's motivation but it cost me nothing in the end
2u tomic-130
1~1.48 Lopez-1.5 sets/montanes-1.5 sets
1u montanes under 19--no game line which I expected to be 5.5/6 so I am trying this
1u Lopez-1.5 sets-130
Here is women's tennis for you---- knapp was down 5-1 in the third and had a game point against her in the game she won so she could have easily lost 6-0---then runs the table to win-- medina garrigues was looking comfortable at 6-3,3-3 double break point before her collapse---I am hoping candantu was injured because there is no good explanation for that crap---no wta for me today
Going off the reservation with a round robin of 6s and a 7 teamer because I just don't give a ****
2u~13u
Really not that much of a home run play if you consider Ramos,Lopez,del potro, and chardy to be near locks--- I was going to bet ggl and rosol anyway---istomin is the wild card to me--entertainment for a rainy day
Last edited by Possum; 05-03-12 at 08:49 AM.
Reason: Editing payout
Ggl served for the match at 6-4,5-4 and then lost,istomin up 6-3,2-0 and will finish his collapse tomorrow so a near miss for the lottery ticket
+.57 on the other plays--the tomic play wins to take the 2u record to 6-1---I might get serious and cut out all the action plays but what is the fun in doing that
Last edited by Possum; 05-03-12 at 12:58 PM.
Reason: Istomin has now retired
Looking at the field,wawrinka and gasquet seem to be the only 2 with enough game to beat delpo if he is off and with their unevenness I just can't see it happening--it's a skewed stat since he was out a year with an injury and this clay season is just getting started, but delpo's only clay losses since the beginning of 2009 are to nadal,federer, and djokovic--this is a very reasonable play at a very reasonable price