[gregm]

No problem Ravi. I hope you didnt look at that the Woz or Dushevina match because of me though. Ungur came through though at least, Woz was just ran around the court. Goerges forehand and strength was just too much for her, Woz just doesnt have the strength or really hit the winners. Major difference in that stat between the two today, she is just too defensive of a player. Goerges serve seems to be back on track too.

Ferrer/Raonic/Nalbandian +112 risk 2

[dudekid]

hey greg, great thread u have going here...obviously i can see why you picked ferrer/raonic but what do you see in nalbandian? thanks man keep up the great work

[gregm]

Thanks dk. I really zoned in how each player has done here in Buenos Aires. The h2h numbers are pretty one sided as well , Nalbandian has won each encounter in straight sets but they have only played twice. Nalby has always played well here in this tourney, winning it in 2008 and making it to the semis and quarters the last three years here. Berlocq has actually done pretty poorly here in Buenos Aires, rarely getting past his first match here.

Berlocq does have some impressive numbers on clay but you have to look at the level if opponents he has been playing as well. I didnt watch that simon match but I didnt understand why Simon was even here and not in Marseilles in the first place, Simon has never played in this tourney.

Nalby is a crowd favorite and I thought he looked strong in Brazil and was surprised he lost to Volandri, maybe Nalbandian is back on track after his injury. I would probably look at the total and the over but these h2h numbers in these matches on clay say otherwise.

[dudekid]

thanks buddy i think i will add a small play very good analysis good luck!

[Demonata]

Thanks dk. I really zoned in how each player has done here in Buenos Aires. The h2h numbers are pretty one sided as well , Nalbandian has won each encounter in straight sets but they have only played twice. Nalby has always played well here in this tourney, winning it in 2008 and making it to the semis and quarters the last three years here. Berlocq has actually done pretty poorly here in Buenos Aires, rarely getting past his first match here. Berlocq does have some impressive numbers on clay but you have to look at the level if opponents he has been playing as well. I didnt watch that simon match but I didnt understand why Simon was even here and not in Marseilles in the first place, Simon has never played in this tourney. Nalby is a crowd favorite and I thought he looked strong in Brazil and was surprised he lost to Volandri, maybe Nalbandian is back on track after his injury. I would probably look at the total and the over but these h2h numbers in these matches on clay say otherwise.

Totally agree man and with him winning in straight sets probably safer to take him to win the first set. If it goes to 3 I trust Berloq winning with his hustle over Nalbandian. I feel Nalbandian needs to win this in straight sets.Good Luck.

[Pew Pew]

greg random question but how much $ do you have invested in stocks?

and nice hit with your parlays lately

[gregm]

YTD 76-55 + 28.35

Yesterday 2-2 +1.06

Thanks guys. Pew, I guess you saw my stock post in the "americans are you missing poker stars" thread. Stocks are my main passion that I learned from my Dad and where the majority of my investment money goes into, gambling is a very small part of where I put my money because of the offshore situation and the numbers being offered by costa rican books. Especially the problems with gambling and getting money in and out from the euro books. These costa rican books are barely even trying on alot of these sports, the numbers are just awful.

CNBC is just such a great part of my morning and my day, you learn so much just watching it about so many types of things. I would probably invest more into gambling if I were able to use these euro and asian books more easily, I love having the control you have over gambling that you don't have with the stock market. I have a good friend I rely on but I have to be really careful with his account and the money transfers and getting money in and out of these books and not screwing things up, it's not easy. Maybe an agent here soon, but thats a ways off. I just wish these US -facing offshores would get back to being competitive with their lines, at least 5dimes has some of these challenger lines up early.

I never thought I could make money on baseball without matchbook but 5dimes has that -1 line in baseball and I did really well last year. Overall, its a pretty dismal situation now with alot of these offshores. These costa rican books are offering the worst lines I can ever remember , its amazing to think how many opportunities Americans had just 4 years ago with neteller and every book you could imagine. I love stocks and I love sports, if I had a dream it would some sort of stocks/sports bar or just some club where you could watch market talk from all of these markets and wagering. Its a shame there isn't the great media for sports gambling like there is with the stock market,maybe sbrtv will get some cnbc market talk type shows going and some good stuff to watch.

Tsonga - -112 risk 1.12

O23.5 -102 risk 1.02

I still have a Tsonga future open. I saw this line at -101 at pinnacle around 10 oclock tonight. The whole key with Tsonga is the serve numbers and getting that first serve in. There is no player in tennis that serves up aces like Tsonga and relies on that first serve percentage to win matches. I wasnt that impressed today with his performance but he did have 14 aces against Vasselin. He faced 11 break points though, had a first serve percentage of 71% and only won 45% of his second serves. I have been mainly looking at serve numbers for him this year because Tsonga has to get that first serve in to win this.

Against Mahut he had 10 aces and didn't face any break points on serve. The Nishikori match where he lost in the Aussie is what stood out to me, he faced 19 break points. Del Potro is so tall and has such a wide wing span and reach for returns he can certainly handle a serve like this, he may not be a returner like Djokovic but if Tsonga is going to win this, he has to get that first serve in or Del Potro is going to light him up with that forehand return on the second serve.

I thought Del Potro looked pretty average out here this week, and hopefully Tsonga should be able to step up his game from today. Surface numbers are tough to judge here, Del Potro has been hurt but both of these guys show great numbers on this surface and I think the over is a strong bet here. I expect a tie break here at the very least and wouldnt be surprised to see a very close match with few breaks.

Tsonga has played well this year, he won his davis cups matches in straight sets, did make it to the round of 16 in the Australian, and won Doha. His ace numbers and first serve percentage numbers at the Aussie were impressive, 15 against Mello ,11 against Istomin. He just has to get that first serve in to win this. I was disappointed in Tsonga during the Aussie but if this guy is getting his first serve in, he can beat anyone in the world on this surface

Llodra/Tipsarevic o23 +100 risk 1

Llodra +3 -108 risk 1.08

I keep seeing these comments about what great form Tipsarevic is in, here are the opponents he has played this year. Notice the rankings of the guys he has beat and the matches he has lost in. He has played well here at Marseille but he beat Goffin again and Ljubicic.

RR******* Filip Prpic (SWE)********** ********ranking 1,426******** W 6-3, 6-3, 6-4*
RR******* Michael Ryderstedt (SWE)********ranking 348****** W** 6-2, 7-6(5), 7-5********
R128**** Dmitry Tursunov (RUS)* **********ranking* 43******** W** 5-7, 7-6(12), 6-3, 6-4
R64***** James Duckworth (AUS)********* *ranking 250****** *********** W 3-6, 6-2, 7-6(5), 6-4***
R32***** Richard Gasquet (FRA)* *********** ranking 18******** *********** L 3-6, 3-6, 1-6***
R16***** Yuki Bhambri (IND)******* *********** ranking 345****** W 6-1, 6-3******** Stats
Q********* David Goffin (BEL)******* ********* ranking 174******** W 6-2, 3-6, 6-2**
S********* Go Soeda (JPN)*********** ********ranking 120******** ************** W 6-1, 6-4*****
F ***** Milos*Raonic*(CAN) ****ranking 31**** L*7-6(4), 6-7(4), 6-7(4)

Tipsarevic has never done anything at Marseille before this year, he only entered the tournament in 2004 and 2007 and was beaten in qualifying in 2004 and was beaten in his first match in 2007. Llodra may get blown off the court but I will take this number all day.

Llodra has won this tourney in 2010, made it to the finals in 2009 and lost to Soderling last year in the quarterfinals. Llodra seems to be playing with alot of passion and here and I will take this handicap any day of the week in a tourney in France that Llodra has won before.

Radwanska -1.5 sets -104 risk 1.04

[gregm]

Raonic/Ferrer -155 risk 1.55

[gregm]

YTD 80-58 +29.23 ( included Isner futures loss)

Yesterday 4-2 +1.88 ( included tsonga futures)

Memphis- Isner futures + 500 risk 1 (Loss)

Raonic futures +250 risk 2 (Pending)

Marseille-Tsonga futures + 275 risk 1 (Loss)

Ferrer futures Buenos Aires +140 risk 1 (Pending)

I am going to ride out these futures wagers on Raonic and Ferrer and will probably look at some props or totals here. Ferrer has totally dominated Almagro in the head to head 8-0 and is just basically the better player. When I was looking at these futures I was looking at Ferrers easy draw and the I was actually a little more worried about Monaco then Almagro, Monaco seems to match up better to David than Almagro does.

Almagro has played a ton of tennis lately and is just coming off this tough 3 setter with Wawrinka and even if he was fresh, Ferrer should still beat him. Ferrers game just matches up perfectly on clay with a player like Almagro. I cant think of a player I like more than Ferrer, I saw this comment he made after beating Gonzalez who is on his last tour. "It was a difficult match," Ferrer said. "Fernando is a great player, one of the greatest in history. And as a person he is even better."

Ferrer is just a hell of a competitor and a class act. Incredible guy to bet on, great betting ratings on matchstat, but I can see it on my own sheets. In a different era without the dominance of guys like Nadal and Djokovic and Federer, he would be a legend like another fierce little guy, Jimmy Connors. Just an incredible player.

I knew all that talk about Tipsarevics great form was overblown, look at my post above this and see the rankings of the players Tipsy had beaten this year. I thought about the over and the handicap with Llodra but I am alot less confident with Llodra facing Del potro than Tipsarevic. Del Potro may not look perfect but he continually is getting stronger, people will obviously look at Rotterdam and think Llodra may have a chance here and he does have some shots that can bother Del Potro but I think Potro looks stronger with every match and every tourney. He should finally get a tourney win this year, I am just hoping a set here can get to a tie break and we can get over this 22 game mark.

Llodra/Del Potro o22 -123 risk 1.23

Some quick notes here. Futures are a great way to make money on these tourneys and if you are researching them, there is no better write ups anywhere I have seen online in all the tennis sites and blogs I read than in the tourney profile on tennis insight. "Arfster" and a few others do a fantastic job looking at the courts, the surfaces, past numbers,etc. Even down to the balls they are using and the new court surfaces. A must read.

Another thing to note, this Olivetti kid from France is one to watch. I saw a few of his matches and his serve is stunning, if he could just get a return game, he would be incredible and would get in the top 100. I just wish there were a young guy like this coming up in American tennis, he should definitely be one to look at for totals. Definitely an Isner, Raonic type of player with a dominant serve. Can he win tie breaks will be the question?

[gregm]

Ferrer -1.5 sets -126 risk 1.26

I already have a futures wager open with Ferrer but I am going to add this sets bet. Of the 5 match ups on clay between Ferrer and Almagro, 3 have been won by Ferrer in straight sets pretty easily, 2 of the matches he won in 3 sets after a tiebreak. Ferrer is off to a very strong start to the year, 12-1 this year, his sole loss his to Djokovic, and has won 10 of these victories in straight sets. Every match here in Buenos Aires, Ferrer has won in straight sets.

Almagro has played well here and in Brazil but hes had quite a few tough matches with Wawrinka and Starace and a pretty tough 3 set final with Volandri just two weeks ago in Brazil. I am hoping it catches up to him today.

[onacloud]

Greg love the thread!

Nice write ups, they get me to look at some of the matches at a different angle and have helped me tremendously keep them coming!

[gregm]

YTD (81-62 +24.59)

Yesterday (1-4 -4.64) included the win on the Ferrer future and the loss on Raonic future

Djokovic +113 risk 3 (Futures Dubai)

Thanks Cloud, I really appreciate it. If someone just looks at a match because of a tip or writeup and makes their own decision is all anybody should want from a tracking thread. I would never want anybody to tail any tip I made from just posting these, I would feel awful if someone lost money from my picks like the poor showings I had today. I hate the card tomorrow, I have kept really good tracking spreadsheets through the years and you can really see which tourneys you do well in and which ones you lose in, I have never had much luck around this time of the year.

Dubai is a 500 which Djokovic has won in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Fed dominated it from around the 2003 -2007 mark,has won it 4 times and made it to the finals last year, but I think Nole ties that record this year. I remember the Djokovic/Fed final from last year and it was total dominance at least against Fed. Novak did drop some sets last year here to Lopez and Berdych. You do have to remember you have a masters coming up in Miami and Nole will be defending his crown there, but he wont be playing his first match in Miami until March 24th.

Djokovics draw is pure fluff unless you consider Tipsarvic as a threat and I don't. Nole won't face anyone until either Murray or Berdych, maybe we will have another great showing from Murray like he put on at the Aussie but he has never shown any numbers at Dubai. He played here in 2008, 2009 and 2010 and has never made it past the quarters. I dont see any real possibility of anything that doesn't involve a Federer/Djokovic final. Del Potro looks good but this is not Marseille. Del Potro has never played here in Dubai and he faces Dolgo in his first match, overall not an easy draw for a guy who has never been here.

Tsonga made it to the semis once here at Dubai but thats it, he has a rough draw and I don't think he has much of a chance here. Berdych made it to the semis here last year but hasnt shown much here at Dubai as well. Fed and Djokovic, this is atp tennis and these futures are some of the best wagers you can make. Nole at these numbers seems like a gift but we will see.

[gregm]

Lacko/Kubot/ Istomin +110 risk 1

Rosol -167 risk 1.67

[Bbr]

Mannarino withdrew from marseille. Any clues why? I see you're on rosol but there's value in mannarino imo.

[gregm]

Ferrer future -110 risk 2.20 ( surprisingly 5 dimes has a much better number than pinnacle)

I am going to go with Ferrer again, he has a very easy draw, and shouldnt be too tired from Buenos Aires. He won most of his matches pretty easily in straight sets and that Almagro match really wasn't that tough after the first set. He has won this 2 years in a row and seems to be firing on on all cylinders going 13-1 this year and only losing to Djokovic so far. Almagro has to be running out of steam but Ferrers dominance in the h2h matchups just continues.

[face]

lacko won an epic tiebreak. bubka had a bunch of match points. both played well, was entertaining

[gregm]

That lacko match was unreal to watch in the tiebreak face. I am surprised more people here don't watch tennis, most exciting sport in the world when you have a good match.

[benrama]

gregm, nice work so far. I made a speculator (small) play on Verdasco for Abierto Mexicano and he has a pretty good record against Ferrer.

One comment though: with futures you generally get at least 50-100% better odds playing someone on the ML all the way each match, have you considered doing this to improve your odds?

[benrama]

And agreed that Tennis is a evenly matched game is up there with the best sporting spectacle - and I watch ALL the sports (NBA/MLB/NFL, Soccer, AFL, NRL, Rugby, Golf, Cricket ...)

[face]

Yes i agree, tennis is so intense sometimes, one on one, man to man, who will choke, who will go for it, who will get tired, etc. And you can see everything as a viewer. There's no rush, time is not a factor, just fatigue. Djokovic/Nadal match this year in australia was my favorite sports event in a year at least.
That being said, i'm terrible at picking winners at tennis, lol. But sometimes i tail you guys in the tennis forum, keep up the good work,

[gregm]

In a rush tonight and no time for write-ups but I wanted to get this Tomic wager in and these others down at these numbers.

Kudryavtsev -137 risk 1.37

Dolgolopov +4.5 -134 risk 1.34

Tomic -1.5 sets +101 risk 1

[gregm]

YTD 83-62 +26.60

Today 2-0 +2.01 (Lacko/Kubot/ Istomin +110 risk 1) still pending

Thanks BetaB and good to see you Ben and Face. Ben, I actually thought about fading Verdasco tomorrow, he has a tough draw here and looks in awful form. I dont trust Volandri enough to do it, I really don't see anybody challenging Ferrer but Verdasco does have a decent head to head against David from a few years back at least. David just beat him in Auckland this year and Verdasco just seems lost, but it might be worth a punt at some great numbers. Ferrer just owns Almagro, so I hope Ferrer sees Almagro again but I really dont think anyone has much of a chance here against Ferrer.

(Berlocq will be a play , waiting for the handicap ) I would just wait and play the handicap if anyone ends up liking this play and reduce the juice. If Berlocq wins, I have a feeling it wont be in tie breaks the way Simon has been playing and if Simon plays like the former top 10 player he once was and he is capable of playing, he should beat Berlocq.

These odds are absurd but there is a reason. Simon was spanked by Berlocq last week in Argentina 6-2,6-1, Simon looked dead in Brazil and really plays like he doesn't want to be out there right now in this South American swing. I am still confused with his scheduling, he has never played these tourneys before. These odds may be absurd having a player like Berlocq at -166 against a much better player like Simon, but I have yet to see anything from Simon in Brazil and Argentina that makes me think he is out there to win.

Berlocq didnt look good against Nalbandian or Almagro in Brazil but he is isn't in that class of players, at least with Almagro yet. He has been playing well in the challengers and did go 3 sets with Monaco in the finals in Chile in January. He has been really moving up the rankings and I dont know what Simon is even doing in South America. Definitely not winning. Maybe hitting the beaches and the Carnival in Brazil? LOL. Berlocq is showing great numbers on this surface this year and in 2011 and this is mainly a punt against a seemingly disinterested Simon.

Federer/Stakhovsky/Berdych/Wawrinka/Isner/Penneta +122 risk 1

Wawrinka really stood out to me but I feel better playing this big parlay than playing the handicap.

[beefcake]

Greg ,Montanes looks like a hell of a price on clay.

[gregm]

Beef, I hope I dont throw you off a winning play but Montanes has done absolutely nothing this year or really much of anything in 2011. Clay isnt Nishikoris strongest surface by any means but he has shown some passable numbers on the surface.

I dont have good numbers on my spreadsheets with wagering on Nishikori and he can really disappoint at times but Montanes is really at the end of his career. He just retired in Buenos Aires, looked awful in Brazil and really hasnt done much of anything in a while. Montanes had a good win last year against Almagro at Indian wells, made a final in Austria but that is about it. He has never really done anything here in Mexico, I would go with the young guy here if the numbers were better. Maybe take the handicap with Montanes, at least you get your wager voided if he retires.

Berlocq -2.5 -126 risk 1.26

Daniilidou +3 -110 risk 2.20

Chang +105 risk1

Keothavong +108 risk 1 (still on the board at 5 dimes, off the board on some of the euro books?)

[QuangX]

Greg do u think chang match can go over 20 1/2 games? I think it should be very close, both have the potential.

[BetaB]

Great work and good luck gregm, i used to tailed you soccer picks.

Miss a few plays though and look like adding murray on your parlay might ruin it for me...

[Bbr]

Mahut +190???

[onacloud]

Beef, I hope I dont throw you off a winning play but Montanes has done absolutely nothing this year or really much of anything in 2011. Clay isnt Nishikoris strongest surface by any means but he has shown some passable numbers on the surface.

I dont have good numbers on my spreadsheets with wagering on Nishikori and he can really disappoint at times but Montanes is really at the end of his career. He just retired in Buenos Aires, looked awful in Brazil and really hasnt done much of anything in a while. Montanes had a good win last year against Almagro at Indian wells, made a final in Austria but that is about it. He has never really done anything here in Mexico, I would go with the young guy here if the numbers were better. Maybe take the handicap with Montanes, at least you get your wager voided if he retires.

Berlocq -2.5 -126 risk 1.26

Daniilidou +3 -110 risk 2.20

Chang +105 risk1

Keothavong +108 risk 1 (still on the board at 5 dimes, off the board on some of the euro books?)

Berlocq just dropped down to -117 on the ML he was -145 when I checked this morning, any one know why?

[gregm]

Bbnr. I havent even looked at that Mauhut match, from a quick glance it should be very close. Lopez is never a solid wager, especially at that price. Thanks betab, glad to see murray pulled it our for you, just remember we have two masters coming up with Indian wells and Miami, alot of players may have that look ahead factor and I wouldnt be surprised to see more retirements like in the gasquet match, davydenko probably should have never played here.

Sorry to see chang didn't do much here quangx, she certainly has the talent from her record it seems but may not be ready for a larger stage. I was glad to wake up to daniilidou as a winner, fading mirza should be on everyone slist whenever you get the chance. I have always liked her but she seems to be a train wreck at times..

[gregm]

Berlocq just dropped down to -117 on the ML he was -145 when I checked this morning, any one know why?

He was at -166 last night, I was on the wrong side of that line move by a country mile. I could see why people would be on Simon, I am going to ride out my wager though after watching Simon in Brazil and Argentina but there are probably better matches out there.

[gregm]

Isner/Dodig -133 risk 1.33

If Dodig had of been playing even average this price would be alot higher on him. He did beat Tomic in Memphis and played a tough match against an in form Melzer who is playing some of the best tennis I have seen from him in a long time.

I am not impressed with Dodigs numbers on this surface, he retired in the Aussie, lost to Kubot in Sydney and is an all around very average player on hard courts. Bachingers numbers don't exactly stand out either and he is primarily playing challengers. Bachinger was crushed by Ryan Sweeting at the Aussie in straight sets and had a few decent scalps at Doha but Dodig is a huge step up in class from most of the players he usually beats.

Bachingers loss to the 388th ranked Olivetti last week in Marseille wasnt as bad as it may seem as Olivetti is one of the best young servers I have seen in a long time, if Dodig can get that strong first serve in I think he gets this. Worth a punt with a parlay with Isner to bring this number down. I am looking at the Chardy match but that number is awful, Machado is a pretty good fade but the line moves on this Chardy match have been interesting.

[gregm]

Nalbandian/Monaco - 114 risk 1.14

I am watching way too much tennis today, the market is pretty quiet today but Apple did hit record highs, 530 a share. Unreal. Tons of tennis going on though. Nalbandian has been playing very well the past few weeks losing to Ferrer in the semis in Buenos Aires and made the quarterfinals in Brazil. He hasn't played here in mexico in a few years but made the finals in 2008. His clay court numbers are outstanding, Giraldo went out in his first match in Brazil and didn't look to sharp in Chile as well. He is no slouch on clay though and the over may be worth a look at. I wouldn't touch this match with the -4 Nalbandian handicap.

Monaco won the Vina Del mar in Chile in January and lost out to Nalby in Argentina. Monaco has looked strong this year and made it to the quarters here in Mexico last year losing to Ferrer and made it to the semis in 2010 losing to Ferrero. Ramos is no slouch on clay either and made it to the semis in Brazil. Another match maybe look at the over, I like this number with the parlay and going to make a small punt on it.

[dudekid]

glad to see this, i am on monaco as well but havent heard many opinions on him today...BOL to us

[dudekid]

looks like we are gonna be sweating this one all match...never easy

[gregm]

I burned out on tennis watching for the day, I havent watched it tonight, Just checked the scores dk, its not looking to good for Monaco and even Nalbandian is down a set. I am going to try and avoid wagering too much on on this acapulco tourney, I have never had good results here.I should have played the totals