[JNic]

1/3
Petzschner +145 vs. Melzer - Melzer was a huge let down last year, both of these guys suffered injuries and on top of that they are very tight doubles partners. Petzschner owns the h2h 2-0 and I think Melzer is simply in a very tough position here and will be under constant pressure if Petzschner gets going on serve.

Matosevic +145 vs. Haas - Matosevic has been a continuous letdown for Aussie tennis and is a hc player that is solid off both wings and is very tough to crack in neutral rallies. Haas is obv coming off his injury problems and continues to get stronger, he will earn a lot more cheap points than Matosevic at the net but Matosevic can produce some big serves himself. Given another WC, Matosevic will come prepared and will be pinpoint from the baseline.

Sugita +175 vs. Rochus - I wanted to fade Rochus here and Sugita is perfect for me. He cruised through qualifications and he is a young talent that I think will continue to progress. Rochus is tough on the baseline and keeps the ball low but Sugita has a very compact game that translates well to Rochus'. I think Sugita can really trouble Rochus on the baseline

[tevari]

I like the first two. Sugita, not so much. Good luck for the upcoming season.

[JNic]

1/4
Istomin +110 vs. Haas - Haas came up with some big serves in his first match but honestly he looked sort of passive on the baseline and really doesn't impress me too much. Istomin benefited from a Mayer injury but he continues to play with pace on the baseline. Both guys can cruise on serve, Haas can be much more crafty on his serve and they both play with a lot of power. On the baseline I think Haas' one hander has become way too passive and Istomin will punish the cross court backhand rallies.

[Demonata]

Good Luck man.

[JNic]

1/3
Petzschner +145 vs. Melzer -

Matosevic +145 vs. Haas -

Sugita +175 vs. Rochus -

YTD 2-1 +2.20u
Also Haas withdrew because of calf injury so Istomin gets the walkover..

[JNic]

1/4
Karlovic +125 vs. Youzhny - The courts aren't the fastest here but I am prepared to fade Youzhny and I think Karlovic will be stronger in the tight moments in this one. Karlovic had some confidence building last year but he got injured but is healthy here.

[JNic]

1/4
Karlovic +125 vs. Youzhny -

YTD 2-2 +1.2u
1/6
Sela +340 vs Raonic - I think Sela will really trouble him here, he needs to really control the rallies and Raonic needs to have a small let down to give Sela maybe a couple of looks to break. Raonic has a decent and improving return game but I'm confident in Sela to really give Raonic a hard time on the baseline.

Tsonga +220 vs Federer - Outside of these back injury reports for Federer, these two have played 8x last year with Tsonga taking 2 of the meetings. Both of these guys play with extreme intensity when they go at it and Tsonga really has presented a worthy rival for Federer last year. With the back injury looming, I think Tsonga will have it tight and maybe Federer will look ahead to the AO. I don't expect Federer to really give Tsonga anything but I do expect Tsonga after having fought through 2 tight matches in this tourney to really take care of his serve.

[JNic]

YTD 2-2 +1.2u
1/6
Sela +340 vs Raonic -

Tsonga +220 vs Federer - Fed withdraw

YTD 2-3 +.2u
1/7
Almagro +200 vs Raonic - Almagro should take care of his serve handily, and with these huge odds and Almagro's fighting spirit he can pull out a tiebreak

[JNic]

YTD 2-3 +.2u
1/7
Almagro +200 vs Raonic -

YTD 2-4 -.80u
1/9
Starace +145 vs Montanes - Montanes owns a 4-2 h2h and has had more decent results on hardcourts than Starace. I think both guys have an equal game on hardcourts and usually benefit from poor opposition. I like Starace's hc game more, as he can finish off points at net and use his forehand to approach better. The rallies will be hard fought and Starace is simply way overpriced, he has had decent results in Australia just like Montanes and Montanes serve can hamper his game way more than Starace's can.

Tursunov +285 vs Baghdatis - I don't think it's time to give up on Tursunov just yet, he's hit a rough patch starting from last year and fell to Ramos in the first round. He plays a pure attacking game and when things aren't clicking he can lose to anyone. Baghdatis has been in dangerous form but I think he is a tad bit overpriced here, he usually always plays the tourney before and won this Sydney title 2 years ago. Baggy has strong reflexes and usually plays a great counter punching game against the guys with big games but I really like Tursunov in this spot here, it's not the smartest pick but the odds are huge and I think he can turn things around and get going here.

Fognini +205 vs Russell - Questions go into Fognini here because of his beating against Sela in Chennai. He had a foot injury but was able to play doubles a few days later and looked like it was a day-to-day injury and I don't think it can mess with him game here. The odds are massive here, Russell was able to fight through qualies, showing his usual tough baseline game against Sweeting (he was fortunate to win that match as a bad call caused Sweeting to fall apart mentally). Obviously Fognini is much worse on the hardcourts but he can be crafty and can definitely cause some damage on the baseline.

[tevari]

Might be on Fognini as well. GL.

[Boner_18]

Tursunov was horrendous in his season debut. I like the fognini pick better, should mike Russell ever be that favored? GL tonight.

[JNic]

Tursunov was horrendous in his season debut. I like the fognini pick better, should mike Russell ever be that favored? GL tonight.

Yea I think Fognini's price is so big because people are just scared to back him because of that horrible showing against Sela last week. I think he's going to be competitive and this price is obviously way overpriced.
Yea Tursunov is a tough play to make but I think he can bounce back here, GL

[JNic]

YTD 2-4 -.80u
1/9
Starace +145 vs Montanes -

Tursunov +285 vs Baghdatis
Fognini +205 vs Russell -

YTD 4-5 +1.70u
Sweeting +145 vs Istomin

[JNic]

Nieminen +130 vs Stepanek

[tevari]

Good hit on Nemo, he ruined a couple parlays I had w/ Step.

[JNic]

YTD 4-5 +1.70u
Sweeting +145 vs Istomin

Nieminen +130 vs Stepanek

YTD 5-6 +2.00u
Aussie Open Rd 1
Day 1
Paire +300 vs Wawrinka - Paire can hit a winner off anywhere off the court, Idk if he is ready for the big stage yet but Wawrinka continues to be bad and his showing at Chennai albeit if there was injuries was just horrible. Paire can do this, mentally it will be tough but he has a chance.

Lacko +115 vs Ljubicic - Lacko cruised through qualies and I think he is confident and can jump out to an early lead against Ljubicic. Ljubicic we haven't seen in a couple of months and he still showed up in big moments last year. I always question his fitness in the hot weather after he melted in the sun against Harrison at the US Open some years back. Lacko is nothing but trouble, he can serve big and has the game to be there at all times against Ljubicic.

Huta Galung +105 vs Berlocq - Huta Galung also cruised through qualies and is another guy that really has a strong game but he just hasn't put it all together yet. He will have many chances to come through against Berlocq. Berlocq is an obvious clay courter but he has always had a big serve and can attack and volley a bit so I respect his game a lot. Huta Galung I think has the edge here and should be able to take care of his serve easier than Berlocq.
Day 2
Bellucci +105 vs Sela - This match is absolutely intriguing, outside of the Verdasco/Tomic match this one has a lot of storylines for me. Sela took out Bellucci in a comeback in a 5th set thriller last year in the USOpen, There is always tons of Israelis/Brazilians that will come and support each guy. Bellucci chose to stick to hardcourts last year and skipped tourneys like Hamburg and went 4-11 before falling to Sela in the Challenger finals in Brazil. Sela is nothing but trouble lately and has been playing well. Bellucci also is coming off a titanic loss against another short player in Rochus in a 3hr match in Auckland. Bellucci is not someone I think would not come out here to play, he is going to fight and not go down mentally. Sela is absolute trouble on the ground at times but Bellucci can be a bitch to break when his lefty serve is working.

Levine +258 vs Granollers - I know how Granollers was last year, his amazing clay court run last year. His winning of Valencia, his winning of Davis Cup. Although he might have tons of confidence I think he is going to have a tough start to this year and I expect a let down. Levine is a hard nut to crack on the baseline and this match will have tons of rallies. Levine qualified for USA and got the WC, he had a good showing against Nieminen last week and Granollers had trouble losing to Ebden in Sydney. This one will be tough for Levine but this is not a spot I like for Granollers and these odds are very worthy imo to back Levine

[JNic]

YTD 5-6 +2.00u
Aussie Open Rd 1
Day 1
Paire +300 vs Wawrinka -
Lacko +115 vs Ljubicic -
Huta Galung +105 vs Berlocq -
Day 2
Bellucci +105 vs Sela -

Levine +258 vs Granollers -

YTD 7-9 +1.20u
Isner +120 vs Nalbandian - Matchup wise I know Nalbandian is a great returner but I question if he really is in great form. Isner seems to be in bad form but after he has some matchplay he gets better and better. I don't think Isner gets broken much and if he can get through some tiebreaks this will be a win.

[JNic]

YTD 7-9 +1.20u
Isner +120 vs Nalbandian -

YTD 8-9 +2.40u
Petzschner +305 vs Raonic - Raonic will be hitting bombs but Petz can keep up with him on a good day. He keeps the slice low and the match is gonna be very tight. The thing is that Petz is a headcase while Raonic is way stronger mentally in the tighter moments, besides that fact I think these odds are too big and Petz will be right next to him on the scoreboard all match
Ito +168 vs Mahut - Mahut killed Stepanek but Stepaneks form to me was quite bad after he strained his groin against Malisse. I didn't see Mahut but he definitely doesn't deserve these odds. Ito has quite a good game and can definitely trouble Mahut big time

[benrama]

Like Petzschner too, but taking half on the handicap half on the ML. Line is now +264 on Pinnacle so you got some value there.

Also looking at Kukushkin and Gil as potential dog plays - more of a fade of their opponents than anything else.

[JNic]

benrama you were right on target with Gil. I'm actually pissed about that because I faded Granollers last round but he came through in 5. I didnt have the guts to fade Granollers again but I had no idea about Gil's form. hopefully you ended up playing Gil because that had a very nice payout

YTD 8-11 +0.40u
Petzschner +305 vs Raonic -
Ito +168 vs Mahut - Tough defeat, if he could have converted 6-2 in the 2nd set tb he easily would have won

Almagro +185 vs Wawrinka - Wawrinka has the edge matchup wise and the edge on this court but I think Almagro is going to come into this match and really hit freely. I don't think Wawrinka will completely dominate the 1 handed bh matchup and can definitely get going on the serve. It will be a lot closer than people will expect imo

[benrama]

Damn - both the dogs came in and I didn't pull the trigger on them. I swore I was going to fade Troicki too.

I like Almagro as a dog, Wawrinka was pretty ordinary against Baggy - Baggy just self-destructed.

[JNic]

benrama you like any other dogs, I think Dolgo might have the slight edge with Tomic but you never know with that one. That sure as hell will be a fun match to watch

[tevari]

Tennisinsight tips were like 34-2 in favor of wawa. Usually a good thing to see if youre on the other side. GL

[benrama]

Only other dog I'd consider today would be Falla, but too hard to gauge their previous matches as both opponents were injured.

Agreed Tevari, having TI consensus like that on someone like Wawa is def a good thing!

[JNic]

Almagro +185 vs Wawrinka -

Also unbelievable that Raonic lost to Hewitt. I tried to fade Raonic 3x and he won the Chennai tourney and dispatches Petz and then loses to Hewitt!
YTD 9-11 +2.25u
Kohlschreiber +395 vs Del Potro - I think Kohli can really trouble him here if he can serve decent and hit the bh well. Kohli is definitely in good form and is always dangerous

[benrama]

I'm looking at that one too JNic, was so close to pulling the trigger on the K-man against Monfils yesterday but went with +2.5 sets instead (at +115). The over in the Kohls/Del Po game is only 36.5 (@-109) and I expect at least one tie-breaker in this match, so if Kohls can take a set this cashes easily. Probably my only play of the day so far on the mens.

On the womens side I'm going Li Na @ +133 - missed her at higher odds yesterday but so be it.

Anything else you tempted by?

[JNic]

I really think Nishikori can beat Tsonga but idk if I could pull the trigger on that. Berdych could beat Nadal but no way im gonna touch that, Gasquet also looks really good but Ferrer is someone I don't really ever want to be against. Idk though at this point it doesn't seem like there is really much value in anything. Some of these upcoming matches though are going to be so fun to watch

[JNic]

well I skipped Nishikori and I really paid for it...
YTD 9-12 +1.25u
Ferrer +600 vs Djokovic - I like Ferrer in this spot and this line is bigger than I expected, I really think Ferrer has a shot here

[JNic]

YTD 9-13 +0.25u
Stakhovsky +168 vs Youzhny - This one will be a battle, I think Stakhovsky is coming back into form and Youzhny's loss against Golubev at the AO was just pitiful. We need Stak to serve well here but he can be trouble for Youzhny and I think he can pull this one out

[JNic]

Adding: Massu +315 vs Del Bonis - Del Bonis obviously has the edge here but I like Massu a lot in this atmosphere, he plays right after Gonzalez and the crowd will be a big factor. I think Massu will be ready for this one and really stay strong and consistent on the baseline. I really like Del bonis as a young clay court player, hes got a lot of power

[JNic]

Stakhovsky +168 vs Youzhny - Stak saved 2 mps and got it to a tiebreak in the 2nd but tough loss

Adding: Massu +315 vs Del Bonis -

YTD 9-15 -1.75u

Veic +158 vs Zemlja - Zemlja has the bigger serve, Veic can come up with some big serves and he has been nothing but a huge letdown when given a WC in Croatia. I think he can turn it around here

[JNic]

YTD 9-15 -1.75u

Veic +158 vs Zemlja - worse loss when Veic wins 1 more point but still loses... by 2 points each tiebreak

YTD 9-16 -2.75u
Late Add: Mathieu over Nieminen +175 - I don't like Nieminen in this spot. He's coming off a high at Sydney and a retirement in AO. I know about the success he can have indoors but I don't think his game is at it's best on the indoors just yet. PHM hit some great winners in his first match back and barring any mental setbacks I think he can come up with some big shots against Nieminen. Hoping to snap my losing streak

[JNic]

YTD 9-17 -3.75u
Hanescu over Souza +155 - Hanescu hasn't been horrible this year and despite Souzas good showing last week in Chile I think Hanescu is going to be a tough competitor here. The crowd will play a factor but I think Hanescu starts off his clay campaign with a solid start, Hanescu matches up with Souza well, besides all the intangibles here I think this match is very close.

[JNic]

YTD 9-17 -3.75u
Hanescu over Souza +155 -

YTD 10-17 -2.20u
Capdeville over Starace +135 - I like Capdeville in this spot, he had a good showing in Santiago last week against Andreev, he was able to fight through qualifying here. Starace came up short in a couple of tight matches on the hardcourts, the question is where his clay court game is at right now. First match on clay this year against a guy in Capdeville who is turning in very solid matches on clay.

[JNic]

YTD 10-17 -2.20u
Capdeville over Starace +135 - strong effort

YTD 10-18 -3.20u
Darcis +145 vs Stepanek