I actually do have databases for NHL, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, MLB, and NCAAB
Every time you see a post by me you just have to argue it just for the sake of arguing, it probably has something to do with the last argument we had in the think tank where everybody came into the thread and said you were wrong. It is obvious that you foolishly think that you are right all of the time and are incapable of seeing things any other way so I am not going to get into one of your beloved refresh the page every 2 minutes for 4 days arguments (because I have a life and have better things to do so I am not sitting in front of my computer monitor all day waiting for lines to move at pinnacle .05 cents so I can make $3 on a arb).
You should educate yourself on both "variance" and "standard deviation" just because some fool gets his hands on a database does not mean that he knows how to test for statistical significance.
More important than variance and standard deviations in a dataset is that by assuming that beating a closing no-vig lines implied win probability by 1% is going to be profitable you are assuming that the market is 100% efficient which is impossible, a line of -105/-105 does not mean that the outcome is exactly 50/50. When chasing steam it is extremely rare that you are beating the no-vig implied win % by more than 2% even at the slowest of books and you are uncertain that the line will revert back to its original number before the steam move. So even if the market was 100% efficient unless you beat the closer 100% of the time you are gaining no advantage.
I know you like to twist my words out of context but I never said that betting steam "could not be profitable" I said that hitting every number that is off regardless of which team it is will not be profitable long term and books are aware of this.
Once again you are twisting the scenario to meet your argument and assuming that when chasing steam you are 100% of the time not only going to beat the closer but you are also going to find that your wager is able to be scalped. This is an unrealistic scenario and it just makes your argument ridiculous, when chasing steam a large majority of the time the line is going to revert back to where it was leaving you with a -EV wager which will eventually revert you back to a break even capper at best.
Take your hypothetical arguments somewhere else because I do not care to argue about if the tooth fairy is real and if so what she would look like because it is an un realistic scenario.
Post and refresh the page as much as you want but I am done with this thread, go to players talk if you want to argue like a child for 3 days.