EPL pick #1 of the night (at least 1 more to come)
we have chelsea vs bolton at stamford bridge. Chelsea, amazingly despite their recent form, are -1.5 or more at the line. Bolton have lost by 2+ goals only ONCE in their last 9 EPL visits to the Bridge. Bolton are playing extremely well, and have lost only 3/ last 15 in the PL. Chelsea, on the other hand, have just 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 EPL games, including a 1 goal win, a draw, and a 3 goal loss against teams of similar strength to bolton over their last 3 home games. Bolton lost their last 2 away games to very good home teams in man city and sunderland, but both by only 1 goal. their previous loss was to a late liverpool goal, again a loss by 1-0. I think this is very good value for Bolton +1.5 @ 2.06
League: EPL
Pick: Bolton +1.5 @ 2.06
Risk: 7.55 units
Potential win: 8.00 units
I should mention that Chelsea have a couple of very important, and recent, 'ins' back for the team, in drogba and lampard. However from what I saw on tuesday, the team is still badly disjointed and unmotivated (they have ever since the leaving of their assistant manager/trainer few weeks back), and the recent returnees mentioned above look like they might take a little time to settle back in, esp. Lampard
EPL pick #2 of the night (likely also a play on Liverpool, just researching injuries on that now.)
Really liking this pick too. Arsenal travel to Wigan, whom against they have a great record, last year's 2-0 up to 2-3 loss in the last ten minutes of the game aside. Arsenal were spectacular against (an admittedly lacklustre) chelsea, and will go into this game on a huge high after a comprehensive victory over chelsea after losing 5 on the trot against them. Arsenal have been brilliant away from home this season (in fact better away than at home), and also beat wigan 2-0 earlier in the league cup. Arsenal do have 2 draw and 2 loss away from home this season, but those 4 games were against pretty much the best 4 home teams in the league (man utd, chelsea, liverpool, and sunderland). That aside, they have 5 straight victory's away from home over teams mostly better than wigans quality. Wigan had a big away win vs wolves last up, but wolves are nothing to write home about. Wigan also have a 5 game unbeaten streak at home, but this does not make me believe in them coz all 5 were against very poor away teams. the 3 vs good away teams they have played at home (albeit all earlier in the season) ended in 2-0, 4-0, and 6-0 losses.
Arsenal have one major out kin fabregas, but the team have managed well without him this season, unlike last season. Plenty of creativity to cover the Fab with Nasri and Rosicky andyway.
2.60 odds for Arsenal -1.5 well over the odds for me.
League: EPL
Pick: Arsenal -1.5
Risk: 6.88 units
Potential win: 11.00 units
I should mention why I take ars -1.5 for 2.60 instead of ars -1 for 1.917. This is because 7/ wigans 8 losses this year have been by 2+ goals, and because 5/ arsenals last 6 away wins have been by 2+ goals. The 1 that was not by 2+ was at goodison park, where everton scored a consolation goal in the 89th minute, else arsenal woulda won that by 2+ also. Like I said, this is why I find this to be very good value.
liverpool have had a long rest and will be rearing to go. wolves played, and lost badly, 3 days ago. Gerrard, Liverpool's most important player, is back. wolverhampton have been awful all season long, especially away from home. Liverpool, while being very mediocre AWAY from home, have been in blistering form at home recently especially, but all season in general too. Also wolves have a '6 pointer' against fellow relegation strugglers west ham in a few days, and I have not forgotten the trip to old trafford last year, when wolves manager did not even try to win, and played a second string squad in order to keep his squad fresh for what he deemed more important upcoming games. Impossible to know for sure, but if he did squad rotations for this game, it would not surprise me at all.
League: EPL
Pick: Liverpool -1.5 @1.98
Risk: 8.16 units
Potential win: 8.00 units
English Championship - 1 pick tonight which I think again very strong. (I realise that recently this does not mean much - in fact recently this means if you fade my top picks you will do great! nonetheless, for me, 2.5 years belief is enough to easily outweigh 2 weeks of crap. Season's end is what I will judge myself on.
The pick of split into two parts, as I couldn't decide between -0.5/1 or just -1.
League: EPL
Pick part 1: Nottingham Forrest -0.5/1 @2.28
Risk: 2.62 units
Potential win: 5.00 units
Pick part 2: Nottingham Forrest -1 @2.91
Risk: 3.90 units
Potential win: 5.00 units
I am still unaware of a few of the results from last 2 days, but from the results I have seen last night was brilliant, netting +30 units on the 4 games I know the results of so far (and perhaps signalling the start of the return to winning ways which I knew was only a matter of time):
pick #1: Adelaide United -1/1.5 risking 6.5 units to win 9.5: Adelaide (easily) WON 2-0 for a WIN and +9.5 UNTIS
pick #2: Nottingham Forest -0.5/1 and -1 risking 6.5 to win 10.0: Forrest easily won 5-2 for a WIN and +10 units
pick #3: Inverness CT/Kilmarnock OV 2 risking 8.0 to win 4.0 units: Kilm won 3-1 for easy >2 WIN and +4.0 units
pick #4: Heart of Midlothian WIN risking 7.35 to win 6.5: Hearts comfortably won 2-0 for a WIN and +6.5 units
(KNOWN) RESULTS FROM LAST NIGHT = 4-0 AND +30 UNITS
Mind you there were still 3 x EPL games from last night that I do not yet know the results of (going to watch them now! The beauty of being on holidays is I actually have time to watch them all!) All 3 of the EPL games had substantial risk/wins attached so the outcome of those 3 will determine if my turnaround is complete of just a false dawn. Regardless of the EPL very nice to see a big night and 4 big unit wins, to hopefully restore a little faith in my selections.
To any questions posed to me in the thread in last 2 days - sorry I have not yet read the thread as I do not want to know the results of games I have not yet watched, but I will have a read thru and respond if any comments as soon as I watch.
Possibly an A league pick for tonight/tomorrow, but there will likely be no more picks from me until the english leagues kick back into gear on saturday. Due to saturday being NY day I may post these in advance. Not sure what my plans are at the moment.
Well I have just watched a simply wonderful result, with my very strong prediction off Birm/Man Utd game being a draw. Bottom 3 team vs best team in the league does not necessarily mean anything. Home/Away form was the key to this one.
A win of +22.5 units on this game, to take the last 5 games record to 5-0 and +52.5 units.
Before this the record was around -42 units, so this puts me in the green since I started this thread, at around +10 units, and also brings me to around +70-75 units on the year. I will do proper result recording tomorrow as I do not have time now.
Still (as far as I am concerned) have 3 pretty big plays pending, on the 3 EPL games from last night. The results of these will decide whether my thread record enters the new year in the + or -. Anywhere around even I would be quite happy with, given that only 2 days ago I was at -40 units or worse.
Very glad to say that my firm belief that my results would turn has proven to be true. As I stated a little earlier in the thread, the beauty of playing games at 3-1, 4-1, etc is that it only takes 1 or 2 wins to gain back a big chunk/make a big chunk. The 3 games Birmingham/Man Utd draw, Nottingham Forrest -1, and Adelaide -1/1.5 only had outlays of ~6.5 units each on them, for an outlay of less than 20 units total. However these 3 games netted a total profit of more than 40 units between them.
Ill be back tomorrow with a proper record update, and at that point I will begin posting the EPL/SPL/EFL plays for Sat night
I am just going to post a couple of plays for tonight, and have not got around to doing the record update yet. (though I am entering 2011 in the positive, which is a great turnaround after being down -40 units or so a few days back) I was too hung over today after NYE to do much today!
Scottish premier league (SPL) - Hearts have made me good money over last few weeks and until they give me reason not to I will continue to back them against the worse SPL teams.
League: SPL
Pick part 1: Hearts of Midlothian -1/1.5 @ 2.49
Risk: 6.00 units
Potential win: 8.94 units
League: A League
Pick: North Queensland Fury +1/1.5 @ 1.549
Risk: 8.19
Potential Win: 4.50 units
I have selected the +1/1.5 line at high juice for the following reasons. Melbourne Heart (north queensland's opponents) have 7 wins on the season. 6 of those 7 wins have been by ONLY 1 goal. Heart have only 3 wins at home on the season, ALL by only 1 goal. So when they win, usually win by only 1 goal. North Queensland have lost a lot of games this season, and are the worst team in the comp. However, 7 of their 10 losses have again been by only 1 goal. Even more importantly, of the Fury's 5 away losses, 4 have been by only 1 goal.
So out of the 21 games played at home by Heart/away by the Fury, only 1 has been won/lost by 2 or more goals. This one game was lost by the Fury away at Adelaide United, and Adelaide have the best home form of any team in the league.
I think there is a very decent chance of Fury losing by 1 goal, however I feel there is only a very small chance of a Fury loss by 2+ goals. This is why I believe the high juice to be necessary, and worth it.
A LEAGUE PICK #2 (kicks off in a bit over 3 hours)
League: A League
Pick: Brisbane Roar PK @ 1.826
Risk: 4.24
Potential Win: 3.50 units
I definitely have a couple of EPL/SPL/La Liga picks for tonight. Circled a few games in advance, but need to do a bit more research before making them official. The picks will be posted at latest 2 hours before the games kick off, will be back in a few hours with the 1st picks
One (and only one) SPL pick for tonight. This is going against my rule of not playing teams on 1st game back after a break, but Inverness' brilliant away form combined with St Johnstones awful home form makes the odds of 3.18 on Inverness win irresistable .
League: Scottish Premier League
Pick: Inverness WIN @ 3.18
Risk: 7.57
Potential Win: 16.50 units
The Spanish segunda division picks are also on teams 1st game back after break. However, the draw is only a small risk for this reason, and I feel the 'over' pick will not be affected by form swings of teams back after the break.
Possibly La Liga pick following shortly. Just researching it further now before making it official
Just a note that my Athletic Bilbao pick is based on the Athletic Bilbao official website NOT listing Fernando Llorente as injured. Some previews mentioned that Llorente may miss this match with injury, in which case I would not have placed the bet. However, I trust the club's official website more than Goal.com / ESPN soccernet etc, as those previews were from nearly 24 hrs ago. I trust that the club official website would state whether he plays or not
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