1. #106
    Division
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    Always appreciate comments.

    Can you explain more this part?

    Quote Originally Posted by EasyPicks View Post
    Regarding ur bet log, imo, I feel that progression stakes will be pumped less than fkkked up more by variance, so it's not worth the hard work/discipline.
    Do you think level stakes are best regardless of percentage bet on progressive stakes?

  2. #107
    EasyPicks
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    Quote Originally Posted by Division View Post
    Always appreciate comments.

    Can you explain more this part?


    Do you think level stakes are best regardless of percentage bet on progressive stakes?
    Hi,

    What I meant was, in a bad run (that will eventually happen) the progressive % stake plan will kill faster the main goal (growth of the bankroll) than it would help rise the bank in a good run.

    Two reasons for this:

    1# mentally is hard to surpass a bad run with objective/discipline bets (the demoralizing effect on the toll that the bankroll toke after the consecutive losses is hard to get around)

    2# good runs aren't enough (on a progressive % stake plan) to get the best over normal variance and bad runs...in order to get your goal.

    "Do you think level stakes are best regardless of percentage bet on progressive stakes?"

    Yes w/o a doubt, imo. An average+/good capper with high volume (large number of bets, not money - that's irrelevant) that beats the juice will end up making more money (in a 1 to 5 units scheme for example) than by sticking with the % progression. The key obviously is discipline either way.

  3. #108
    Division
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    English Premier League
    Man Utd v Tottenham
    Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Paddy Power
    Estimated Win Percentage: 65%
    Stake: 37

  4. #109
    Division
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    Quote Originally Posted by EasyPicks View Post
    "Do you think level stakes are best regardless of percentage bet on progressive stakes?"
    Yes w/o a doubt, imo. An average+/good capper with high volume (large number of bets, not money - that's irrelevant) that beats the juice will end up making more money (in a 1 to 5 units scheme for example) than by sticking with the % progression. The key obviously is discipline either way.
    This is an interesting article about the topic: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...62VHE9W3JPJ7X7

  5. #110
    EasyPicks
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    Quote Originally Posted by Division View Post
    This is an interesting article about the topic: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...62VHE9W3JPJ7X7
    Yeah nice read (I also read their articles - they usually post them on twitter ).

    Like I said, 1 to 5 unit betting scheme for example way better than the flat bet stakes (assuming the capper has/knows his edge overall).....progression scheme theoretically (and as backed by the article) seems the best option....but you do have to factor in the difficulty on good decision making after a long losing streak....

    Thx for sharing.
    aGl 2 morrow (I'm avoiding that game)

  6. #111
    EasyPicks
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    Quote Originally Posted by Division View Post
    There is a very serious problem over here with bookmakers closing or limiting accounts and nothing is being done about it but there is a lot of competition so it can be possible to keep betting and make a big profit before you run into problems.

    Personally I have had 7 accounts closed and 4 more restricted even with taking measures to keep my profit at a minimum at these books by laying off bets on Betfair (a betting exchange).
    Got a few questions about this ....If u have the time to shed a light on it:

    - was bet365 one of those (that block/limited you)?

    - how did books limited your accounts? (I had the same problem, will detail further after ur reply)

    - why don't you just use Betfair (book and exchange) and pinnacle?

  7. #112
    aspire15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Division View Post
    Always appreciate comments.

    Can you explain more this part?


    Do you think level stakes are best regardless of percentage bet on progressive stakes?
    hi division,

    you said in the first posts that you bet flat 2% in each selection (regardeless of the odd? - thats my first question) but you've made this progression blog to make it more entertaining for readers....have you ever tried a similar challenge like this?

  8. #113
    Division
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    Liverpool 0-0 Man Utd (Bet Won)
    Crystal Palace 2-1 Chelsea (Bet lost)
    Watford 0-1 Stoke (Bet Lost)
    Man Utd 1-0 Tottenham (Bet Won)

    Balance: 367

    English Premier League
    Chelsea v Man Utd
    Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 BetFred
    Estimated Win Percentage: 69%
    Stake: 36

    English Premier League
    Everton v Watford
    Bet: Exactly 2 or 3 Total Goals @ 2.1 Bet Victor
    Estimated Win Percentage: 54%
    Stake: 36

  9. #114
    Division
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    Quote Originally Posted by EasyPicks View Post
    Got a few questions about this ....If u have the time to shed a light on it:
    - was bet365 one of those (that block/limited you)?
    - how did books limited your accounts? (I had the same problem, will detail further after ur reply)
    - why don't you just use Betfair (book and exchange) and pinnacle?
    I still have my Bet365 account. I keep as many accounts open as possible by betting in such as way that the account goes into a negative but I recoup my losses by betting the other side on a betting exchange when the profit on the bookmaker account reaches a certain threshold. I only use Bet365 for the major European soccer leagues which may help keeping the account open but their limits are not too high so its not a bookmaker I use too often.

    Some bookmakers closed my account and told me it was a trading decision, some bookmakers limited me to very small bets on soccer markets but will allow me to bet larger stakes on other sports. I contacted the regulators or the bookmakers, the gambling commission in the UK, the Irish department of justice and a couple of other organisations about it but there is nobody that can (or will) do anything about this practice.

    I do use Betfair, just not for this log. There is little point in tipping a selection that has no liquidity on Betfair. Pinnacle stopped operating in my country as the government introduced a tax based on online turnover.

    Quote Originally Posted by aspire15 View Post
    hi division,
    you said in the first posts that you bet flat 2% in each selection (regardeless of the odd? - thats my first question) but you've made this progression blog to make it more entertaining for readers....have you ever tried a similar challenge like this?
    All my bets fall within a narrow range of odds so the flat stake is fairly suitable. I adjust the stake amount when the bankroll increases or decreases by certain percentages.

    I did something similar to this years ago when my bankroll was smaller and I was less risk adverse but with a higher frequency of bets. There is not much interest being shown so I only occasionally post some bets now.
    Last edited by Division; 11-02-17 at 07:08 PM.

  10. #115
    Division
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    Chelsea 1-0 Man Utd (Bet Won)
    Everton 3-2 Watford (Bet Lost)

    Balance: 353

    World Cup Qualifier
    Denmark v Republic of Ireland
    Bet: Exactly 2 or 3 Total Goals @ 2.1 Bet Victor
    Estimated Win Percentage: 56%
    Stake: 35

  11. #116
    Division
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    Denmark 0-0 Ireland (Bet Lost)

    Balance: 318

    English Premier League
    Arsenal v Tottenham
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.53 Bet365
    Estimated Win Percentage: 72%
    Stake: 31

    English Premier League
    Leicester v Man City
    Bet: Man City To Win & Both Teams To Score @ 2.6 BetFred
    Estimated Win Percentage: 43%
    Stake: 31

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