1. #71
    Division
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Think about it this way. How MANY leagues does the Soccer Oddsmaker have to post? A book like BET365 has a nearly infinite # of games. Hard to line ALL those leagues accurately.
    Thats exactly it. In a typical gameweek I'll price up between 200-250 markets looking for a couple of prices I disagree with.

    The bookie is not in the business of predicting the future, they are trying to balance the book so the odds available a lot of the time will not be representative of the actual likelihood of something happening.

    Patience and discipline to bet a couple of singles each week is the way to make a profit at this game. Unfortunately people love to bet accumulators.

  2. #72
    Division
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    Irish Premier Division
    Dundalk v Galway
    Bet: A Goal In Both Halves @ 1.5 Ladbrokes
    Estimated Win Percentage: 74%
    Stake: 48

  3. #73
    Coach Potato
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    been looking g in on this thread every once in a while n I gotta say division i admire ur restrain n discipline. it's something a lot if people on this site don't have.

    good luck witb ur plays. u ever attempted something like this b4?

  4. #74
    Division
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coach Potato View Post
    been looking g in on this thread every once in a while n I gotta say division i admire ur restrain n discipline. it's something a lot if people on this site don't have.

    good luck witb ur plays. u ever attempted something like this b4?
    I have been a profitable bettor for a few seasons now since taking a more analytical approach to my betting and make a good profit each year. I bet a flat 2% stake on each of my bets but decided to start a log here where I post some of my bets but wanted to show the bankroll progression at a rate that would be of interest to people and some of my bets have enough value at a high enough strike rate to justify a 10% stake.

    Either people get the restraint and discipline (as well as the ability to price up an event) at some stage or they continue to lose.

    Hopefully some people will see the growth of this bankroll using mainly odds on singles and consider changing from betting big accumulators. It is more fun to bet when you're winning.

  5. #75
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Div, full respect on your effort.

    Question for u. I ask this Q to cappers that take it seriously:

    * What is your Target ROI (Return on Investment)?

    Good luck w/ your picks!

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 136 pts


  6. #76
    Division
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    Dundalk 2-0 Galway (Bet Won)

    Balance: 506

  7. #77
    Division
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Div, full respect on your effort.
    Question for u. I ask this Q to cappers that take it seriously:*
    What is your Target ROI (Return on Investment)?
    Good luck w/ your picks!
    I don't bet high volume so I look for a higher ROI than someone who uses a model and bets a high volume of games for example so by the end of the log I will be happy if I hit around 10-12% as I am very selective with my bets and only bet games that I have a good bit of insight into.

    My personal betting involves more games and I aim for about 8% ROI.

  8. #78
    Division
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    Stats for the log so far:

    Yield = 18%

    Level Stakes ROI = 24%

    Can't complain with that

  9. #79
    Division
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    Confederations Cup
    Germany v Mexico
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.75 Bet365
    Estimated Win Percentage: 64%
    Stake: 50

  10. #80
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    No, DIV. That's great! Sure as hell beats Charles Schwab.

    Just trying to stir up some conversation. When I talk to people about capping, I throw out a reasonable target of +5% ROI.

    I try to view selections in 20-game increments. If I'm betting -110 markets, then a random coin-flipper should go 10-10. If u can win just ONE extra game per 20...then you're at +5% ROI.

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 136 pts


  11. #81
    Division
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    I'm in Ireland and don't follow any American sports except NBA at the end of the season but it seems the handicap lines are very accurate.

    With European football (soccer) I can take advantage of bookies offering odds on 200+ markets per game, most of which are related to goals from the win-draw-win to over under 2.5 goals to a goal to be scored in both halves. They open themselves up to regular pricing errors with this approach and are slow to adjust their ratings against someone who has an in-depth knowledge of each team and their tactics and injuries/suspensions.

    There is a very serious problem over here with bookmakers closing or limiting accounts and nothing is being done about it but there is a lot of competition so it can be possible to keep betting and make a big profit before you run into problems.

    Personally I have had 7 accounts closed and 4 more restricted even with taking measures to keep my profit at a minimum at these books by laying off bets on Betfair (a betting exchange).

    The ROI is dependent on the bettors style also. Someone betting 10 games a month should have a higher ROI than someone betting 200 games a month but in the end it comes down to how much money you make and so the guy betting 200 games a month with a 2% ROI will make more money than someone betting 10 games a month with an 8% ROI. The flip side is the guy betting 10 games should have a bigger edge and can bet a higher percentage of his bankroll.

    For example:

    * Bet 1 - Odds 10/11 - edge 2% - max bet would be 2.14% of your bankroll
    * Bet 2 - Odds 10/11 - edge 8% - max bet would be 8.73% of your bankroll

    Basically I wouldn't focus solely on ROI as there are many other factors that ultimately have an effect on a bettors overall results.

    The markets on the games I research are not efficient and the weight of the money can have a big effect on the odds at the time I bet which opens up profitable betting opportunities even if the opening prices were correct or at least in line with my numbers.

    I don't have to be better than the bookie at pricing up every game - I just need to be right a few times in a few markets each week to make a good profit and I'll check a lot of their markets to see where I feel they have made a mistake.

  12. #82
    Division
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    Germany 4-1 Mexico (Bet Won)

    Balance: €544

  13. #83
    Division
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    As there is not much interaction in this thread I'm curious to know if many people are following the tips?

  14. #84
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    DIV, I'm not really a "tail-er."

    But I've been looking at your picks and wishing u the Best.

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 136 pts


  15. #85
    Coach Potato
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    been following u for the last month or so DIV n a big fan of wat u've done so far. I'm defenetly along for the ride as I'm sure others r too. Keep up the good work n let's get hit that goal ☺

  16. #86
    the tross
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    Much appreciated. Been tailing your both teams to score bets.

  17. #87
    carolinacapper
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    If the purpose of gambling is to win $$$, then this thread is on target. IMO one of the better ones on SBR. I enjoy threads like this that fly under the radar,, no drama and no trolls! I hope it stays like this. Good work so far DIV I appreciate your approach.

  18. #88
    Division
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    Confederations Cup
    Chile v Germany
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.8 Bet365
    Estimated Win Percentage: 62%
    Stake: 27

    If you want the tips by WhatsApp also send me a message to +353857415392

  19. #89
    TTA_President
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    Good job

  20. #90
    Division
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    Chile 0-1 Germany (Bet Lost)

    Balance: 517

  21. #91
    Division
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    I set up a league on Fantasy Premier League with a cash prize of 200 for the winner so they can follow my betting log entirely risk free if they choose to.

    Use this link and you'll be added automatically after you've entered the game:https://fantasy.premierleague.com/?a...e=404517-98521.

    You shouldn't need the league code, but just in case here it is: 404517-98521.

  22. #92
    Division
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    English Premier League
    Tottenham v Chelsea
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 BetFred
    Estimated Win Percentage: 67%
    Stake: 51

  23. #93
    Coach Potato
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    I'm so happy the major leagues r starting up again lol good to c u back division 👍

  24. #94
    Division
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    Thanks CP. Good to have more reliable football with much more data and video analysis to work with.

  25. #95
    Division
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    Tottenham 1-2 Chelsea (Bet Won)

    Balance: 554

  26. #96
    Coach Potato
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    🖒 thanks for the play

  27. #97
    Division
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    English Premier League
    Newcastle v West Ham
    Bet: West Ham Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.67 Boylesports
    Estimated Win Percentage: 70%
    Stake: 55

    English Premier League
    Liverpool v Arsenal
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.57 William Hill
    Estimated Win Percentage: 71%
    Stake: 55

  28. #98
    Division
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    Newcastle 3-0 West Ham (Bet Lost)
    Liverpool 4-0 Arsenal (Bet Lost)

    Balance: 444

    World Cup Qualifier
    Spain v Italy
    Bet: Exactly 2 or 3 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Stars
    Estimated Win Percentage: 58.1%
    Stake 44

  29. #99
    Division
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    Spain 3-0 Italy (Bet Won)

    Balance: 490

    English Premier League
    Man City v Liverpool
    Bet: Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Coral
    Estimated Win Percentage: 65.8%
    Stake: 49

    English Premier League
    Stoke v Manchester United
    Bet: Exactly 2 or 3 Goals @ 2.1 Bet Victor
    Estimated Win Percentage: 54.1%
    Stake: 49

  30. #100
    Division
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    Man City 5-0 Liverpool (Bet Lost)
    Stoke 2-2 Man Utd (Bet Lost)

    Balance: 392

    Champions League
    Celtic v PSG
    Bet: PSG -1 @ 1.65 BetStars
    Estimated Win Percentage: 70.9%
    Stake: 39

    Champions League
    Barcelona v Juventus
    Bet: Juventus +2 @ 1.44 BetStars
    Estimated Win Percentage: 78.8%
    Stake: 39

  31. #101
    Coach Potato
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    division where u @?

  32. #102
    Division
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    Celtic 0-5 PSG (Bet Won)
    Barcelona 3-0 Juventus (Bet Lost)

    Balance: 378

    English Premier League
    Liverpool v Man Utd
    Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 BetStars
    Estimated Win Percentage: 64%
    Stake: 37

  33. #103
    Division
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    English Premier League
    Crystal Palace v Chelsea
    Bet: Chelsea Win To Nil @ 2.3 Ladbrokes
    Estimated Win Percentage: 52%
    Stake: 37

  34. #104
    Division
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    Liverpool 0-0 Man Utd (Bet Won)
    Crystal Palace 2-1 Chelsea (Bet lost)

    Balance: 377

    English Premier League
    Watford v Stoke
    Bet: Watford To Win Draw No Bet @ 1.5 Ladbrokes
    Estimated Win Percentage: 74%
    Stake: 37

  35. #105
    EasyPicks
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    Quote Originally Posted by Division View Post
    English Premier League
    Watford v Stoke
    Bet: Watford To Win Draw No Bet @ 1.5 Ladbrokes
    Estimated Win Percentage: 74%
    Stake: €37

    I'm guessing that u feel the line will drop a lot by KO. Watford st8 up win at 2.00 also seems of value.

    Regarding ur bet log, imo, I feel that progression stakes will be pumped less than fkkked up more by variance, so it's not worth the hard work/discipline. For many years I used that or similar approach for each betting season, but I've been following some guys on twitter and the ones I've come to admire more are the guys that place an absurd amount of bets and beat the juice....so for a few of them that's a nice amount of profit each year.

    Gl Div

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