Not gonna be around to bet most of these live, so just the ones I think make sense from a full match standpoint today.
4.4.15
LigaMX
Chapias-Pachuca Over 2.5 @ +110 Chiapas hasn't quite been as big an OVERs team the last few weeks after a hot start, but they still trend that way. At home, four of six matches have seen at least three goals with Chiapas scoring multiple goals four times and keeping just one clean sheet. Pachuca have picked up their scoring on the road lately with their last three road tilts hitting for three goals or more. Pachuca has scored & conceded six goals in that stretch.
Tijuana @ -105 This one makes the most sense to me today. Tijuana has been a goal scoring machine @ home this season with 13 goals in their last four at home with a minimum of three scored in each of those matches. They have won all five home matches this term. Meanwhile, Monterrey has not secured a single point on the road in six matches so far. They have managed to score just twice, while giving up 13 goals.
MLS
FC Dallas +0.5 @ -109 Dallas is on the road at Portland where the Timbers are still searching for their 1st win this season in four matches. FCD meanwhile have not dropped any points yet in their four matches. I think a good battle here with Dallas at least working a draw to steal a point.
Colorado v. New England Both Teams To Score NO @ +100 Even though New England's defense has been shotty, this looks worthy of a shot with Colorado scoreless on the season and only having conceded a single goal. The Revs have given up six goals in four matches, but only scored two all season - both coming in their last match at home.
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Also think the early MLS match with Chicago-Toronto, the Over 1 1H looks okay maybe to try there. Toronto's D has been pretty poor. A live bet if you can get Over 0.5 at a decent price would be even better. Might check that out.
Guess Tijuana is proof that if it looks too good, pass on it. What a terrible result for them. Shoulda stuck with the overs obviously in that one. FC Dallas also with a turd.
4.5.15 LigaMX: 1H PUMAS-Leones Negros 1H Over 0.5 Good spot for this try as the match totals for Leones Negros always seem to be on 2 which means you should get a decent deal on this 1H number.
Over 0.5 is -188 to open at DSI for the 1H over. I wound up trying 1H Over 1 @ +129 instead as to not worry about trying to time a live bet today. Will be looking over MLS in a little bit with two matches later today.
MLS San Jose-Real Salt Lake
I think you can make the case for the 1H Over 1 or Full Match Over 2.5 in this one. San Jose has gone Overs in 3/4 this season, while Real Salt Lake has done it in 2/3. The only cause of pause is RSL only having played one road tilt and not scoring in it. San Jose's failure to keep a clean sheet should reconcile those feelings for me. I'm going Over 2.5 @ +100
Sporting KC-Philadelphia Both Teams to Score NO @ -115 Sporting KC has been solid defensively outside of the three goal outburst that FC Dallas put on them. They have two straight clean sheets and face a Philly team that has failed to score in 3/4. You could also make the case for Under 2.5
4.8.15
MLS: Vancouver-Columbus 1H Under 1 @ -125 Right off the bat, Vancouver looks way too simple on the ML here, so going to pass on that. Whitecaps are 4-0, while Columbus is 1-2. Rather going to go with the MLS 1H Under 1 try again here. Of their seven combined matches, none have topped more than a single goal in the 1H and 6/7 have seen no goals.
BTW went back and researched all the MLS matches for the season now that we have several weeks to work off of and the 1H Under 1 looks like this separated into weeks, it's W-L-P
W5: 2-3-3
W4: 4-2-4
W3: 5-2-3
W2: 6-4
W1: 5-1
So far it's still a money maker most every week except this past one. Think it's good to look at the match-up of course, but you can do worse so far then blind betting 1H unders in MLS.
4.10.15
LigaMX
Three Friday night matches. Here are my thoughts.
Queretaro-Tijuana Both Teams to Score
Tijuana leads the league with 25 goals scored in 12 matches. Queretaro can be stingy at home with three clean sheets in five matches this term, but Tijuana has yet to be shut out. Queretaro has scored in all but one of five home matches & has seven goals in their last two matches. Tijuana has just two clean sheets overall this term.
Veracruz ML
Buyer beware as this looks too easy, but Morelia is the foe & they have lost 6 of 7. Morelia has not claimed a point on the road since October (7 matches). Veracruz is 4-0-2 at home this term.
Santos Laguna-Chiapas 1H Over 1
Chiapas matches have seen at least one 1H goal in all five road tilts. Santos Laguna averages their 1st goal @ home around the 35 min mark. They have scored at least one 1H goal in 4/6 @ home. Betting live should grant some price relief & if you're patient, you might get 20 mins in & get over 0.5 at a reasonable price.
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 04-10-15 at 03:38 PM.
EZ cheese on the Santos Laguna 1H over. As usual, the "sure thing" will fail. Definitely will continue to advise on those too good to be true match-ups. Veracruz even up a man in the 2H and they had to rally from down 0-1 to tie it now at 1-1. Maybe they can snag it late, but just unreal how this happens more often than not it appears.
LoL and if further proof was needed on jinxes of too good to be true lines, clear penalty goes uncalled that would have given Veracruz a chance to go ahead late. EZ call unless you're blind.
Decent last night on the original selections, blown a bit back with the 2H play. Full slate today in MLS and plenty in LigaMX too. Starting to comb over them to look for any plays.
4.11.15
MLS
NYC +0.5 @ -123 Like this one on the road in Philly where the Union have not claimed a full three points from anyone yet in five matches. NYC is coming off a tough 1-0 loss to Sporting KC at home. Otherwise, NYC has been pretty solid with a couple draws and a win this season. I haven't seen enough from the Union to suggest this is the spot for their first win, while NYC generally has looked like a solid squad. I think they can earn at least a draw here and might even warrant a spot shot on the big ML +281 if you're feeling aggressive.
DC United +140 This has been a heavy home and home series between DC United & NY Redbull with the home side winning the last seven head-to-head meetings, including the Redbull taking a 2-0 decision earlier this season at home. Dating back to last season, DC United have won nine of their last ten at home and are 2-0 this season with two clean sheets. NY is still a quality side on the road, but United seems to have something special going at RFK.
Will track the 1H Under 1s again this weekend. FC Dallas-Colorado went Overs yesterday.
LigaMX
Cruz Azul-Tigres Over 2 @ -119 Cruz Azul at home has been more of an Unders vibe with just ten goals seen in their five matches. However, of the last three on their home pitch, two have featured three goals and the other ended with two goals. Couple in that Tigres is on a big run of being a goals magnet with their last five overall seeing at least three goals and this looks like a legit shot to at least push. On the road, Tigres has given up a goal in 4/5 and has scored in three of those five. Both teams to score could also be attractive here with Cruz Azul not having kept a clean sheet in seven straight and Tigres having just one in their last six. I'll side with the Over goals though and think we should escape with at least a push.
Monterrey-America 1H Over 0.5/1 or 0.5 LIVE If America had done a better job of scoring away from home, I could make the case for an over here, but they have only scored three goals in give matches. Monterrey has been a goal scoring machine though and that gives this bet a boost. At home, Monterrey have tallied 12 goals in five matches with ten of those in the last three. Three of their five home matches have seen at least one goal in the 1H. America has allowed four 1H road goals this season. I see a split 0.5/1 at -145. I think if you have a LIVE option for this one if you can wait it out, you can likely get a reasonable price on the Over 0.5 by itself.
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