[Akatana]

It's a really simple scenario! Fluminense are on top form they are leading the Campeonato Carioca.They are 7-1-1 and 19-7 and at home are 3-1-0. On the other hand Botafogo are not taking this league seriously at all and there is a big big big reason for that. They are all about the Copa Libertadores that is their main goal financially it will help the club a lot to be in this prestigious tournament and do well in it. Copa Libertadores is what Botafogo live for right now it's their passion, it's their main goal, it's all they have going for them and they wanna make sure they go through to the play offs.

They won the first game of the campaign against San Lorenzo 2-0 at home and right after this game against Fluminense they fly out to Chile to face Union Espanola 3 days after this game. They will play their full B squad against Fluminense guaranteed. Even their A team would not do well against Fluminense now let alone their shitty B team and with all the focus on the Libertadores.

Fluminense will surely use this scenario to their advantage, they are very solid right now, if they don't win this game i will go and donate all my betting bank to the homeless and i will provide proof of it with video, audio, letters, whatever the fuckk it takes to prove it i will.

Don't look for some shittyy reason to not back Fluminense. Do it and do it right now, there is still some decent value. Odds for the Moneyline are around 1.60-1.70 right now.

I'm ready with my cash in hand right now as i'm writing this i'm putting my socks on to go and place this bet, I'm a little frustrated i didn't spot this earlier on.
Anyway enough said go and back Fluminense! Either the moneyline or -1 whichever floats your boat.
I'm off to the books now.

[justkyle88]

Got on the win and -1.0asian.
Hopefully we don't see you giving your money to the homeless on film

[Akatana]

Haha i just got back from the books. No hopefully not if i was in this to donate my money i would have had a charity organisation
Were going to cash on this. I'm sure there will be lots of people here not backing this for some reasons of their own but they will regret it, it must be the most solid home banker of the week for me.

[John7]

When is the match playing?Can't find the match

[Akatana]

When is the match playing?Can't find the match

Sunday 19:00 GMT my time.

[Akatana]

I expect odds to drop below 1.50 on Sunday i would be surprised if it doesn't. Opening odds were above 1.80 now it's averaging at 1.60

[barca12]

I hope yo win man, but brasilian league is one of the most rigged leagues in the world..if odds stay around 1.60 i might play it in a 3 team parlay

[kaliboyz]

thanks for the tip, i'll put it in my parlay 3 too, LOUISVILLE (NCAAB) + FLUMINESE + HOUSTON U (NCAAB). GOOD LUCK.

[Akatana]

I hope yo win man, but brasilian league is one of the most rigged leagues in the world..if odds stay around 1.60 i might play it in a 3 team parlay

I mean yeah we can say all leagues are rigged (Other than the Bundesliga) But i would take this spot 10/10 times, Knowing these teams pretty well by now and being very well aware of Botafogo's situation. They cannot give a fk about this game at all and i mean at all and even if they try to show that they are i know that they aren't. If you take a look at Botafogo's away record in this league you will see, they are struggling against team's that they would normally crush but they can't. Thats due to their weakness in the squad and more important ambitions for the Libertadores. After all this is only the regional pre-main-season league and not the Serie A They just don't have enough good players to do good in both.
Good luck if you take it.

[illadelphia215]

I can't even find this game posted on 5Dimes.

[Akatana]

I can't even find this game posted on 5Dimes.

Don't think they have it.
If you can take it at any other book and the odds for the money-line are below 1.60 then take the asian -1 line.

[barca12]

I got it at the local book at 1.60..took it for medium stake

[Akatana]

Although i already mentioned this, confirmation yesterday from Botafogo that they will be going to Fluminense with their B squad. All the regulars will be rested and the day after the game the team will be flying to Chile. Another good news is that their new Paraguayan signing, striker Zeballos was scheduled to play this match against Fluminense but due to his paperwork not arriving on time he will miss the game.

[barca12]

I just took -1 handicap Fluminense at 2.60..moneyline dropped since yesterday to 1.55...I dont know anything about these teams but your analysis is so good I had to take it...also I remember your Juve and Salzburg plays so I trust you...

[Akatana]

I just took -1 handicap Fluminense at 2.60..moneyline dropped since yesterday to 1.55...I dont know anything about these teams but your analysis is so good I had to take it...also I remember your Juve and Salzburg plays so I trust you...

I'm assuming you took the European -1 line = Asian -1.5
I wish you took the Asian -1 line @ around evens which i suggested earlier in the main post just cause it's that much safer since this is a derby but regardless the odds of the line you took have dropped quite a bit also, opened around 3.30-3.50 and now around 2.50.2.70
nevertheless there is good value in this situation still. They have covered that line in the last 2 games at home and even away to Flamengo they won 0-3 who are also in the Libertadores themselves that suggests one thing they are merciless to teams who are resting their main players for the Libertadores and want to remain leaders of the league. These two are hardcore rivals but now Fluminense has the upper hand. I'm very confident they will show no mercy to Botafogo's reserve squad. A bet is a bet at the end of the day but let's do this, it's going to be a good game and hopefully good game for us.

[barca12]

yeah euro -1 so they have to win by two goals, dont worry, after all the analysis you made I feel good about this bet and wont be pissed if it doesnt hit..I follow mostly big euro teams and since this is the weekend in between champions league matches I was looking for out-of- spotlight type of game and this one is perfect.

[justkyle88]

When is this played? Thought it was last night?

[Akatana]

When is this played? Thought it was last night?

Sunday. Tomorrow.

[kaliboyz]

how strong do you feel about this, OP? can i throw 1k on it?

[TheGambl3r]

FLUMINESE -1 (+100) playing this cause of your info and all info on this page. rest of my plays are in my forum.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/soccer-bet...er-thread.html

[Akatana]

how strong do you feel about this, OP? can i throw 1k on it?

Sorry for the late reply. Yes feel very very strong about this. But if i really want to give you the "OK" to do it i have to know that 1k is only a fraction of your betting bank.

[kaliboyz]

no, 1k is 10% of my bank roll.

[Akatana]

no, 1k is 10% of my bank roll.

Ok you can do it, what odds are you getting? Good luck. I got over 2k on it myself.

[kaliboyz]

odd for -1 is 1.893 (-112), for ML odd is 1.543 (-184)

[Akatana]

Damn they dropped quite a bit didn't they. Ok how you wanna do this? ML or spread? It depends on you. In this situation i would go for the -1. But since you wanna pound it like i did the ML is not so bad either.

[Robin Van Rogan]

Also you guys should look into Santos vs Sao Paulo.
I'm actually brazilian, and a Sao Paulo supporter, and I say there is going to be VERY difficult to Sao Paulo get a win here.
We almost got relegated last season, changed a lot of players, but the team is still suffering a lot.
We're just sucking at the moment, and it's been more than a year since we won our last derby (we have 3 main rivals in the city).

The coach is trying a lot of different strategies, players, youngsters, everything to make the team a little better, but so far it's not working.
You may look at the table and see us in second place, but the truth is, Campeonato Paulista is a sub-par championship.
Just one state, with like 4 big teams in it, the rest is VERY small clubs that only play 4 months per year, that's why we have some wins, but since last year, everytime we faced a good team, we struggled.

So I can recommend a Santos play here, I'm pretty big on it myself, specially since for some reason, we are the favorites.
Santos PK is paying like 2.50 ATM, that is a steal, no way the odds should be this high.

I even have a medium bet on a Fluminense + Santos PK parlay at 3.53.
This is too good to be true.

[Akatana]

I totally agree about Sao Paulo, they're just trying to get their team together and when they play decent teams they will not be as good. I backed them a few times at home against mogi mirim and rio claro but i don't think they will have it easy against Santos just like they couldn't against Portuguesa. But be wary of Santos they are having some problems in defense make sure their defenders are back last game at home they conceded to a very weak Atl.Sorocaba because Alan and Henrique were suspended and and were replaced with a couple of youngsters. Nevertheless i see total value on Santos PK @ 2.30-2.50 as long as their defensive line is in order again.

[Robin Van Rogan]

Yes, they have full squad for this match.

Our team is playing horribly atm, the coach is insisting in a 4-3-3 formation, but our attack just doesn't help the midfield, as they should in this formation.
Ganso is also very lazy and doesn't help at all, that's 4 players less in defense.

So all teams against us have a freaking free way in midfield, and everyting explodes in the faces of the solo DM, and the defense players, and they're not good players, at all.

There is immense value in Santos PK, the only thing keeping the lines like this is that we're playing home, but that didn't stop we losing/drawing a lot of our last derbys lately.

[Robin Van Rogan]

Santos pk,+½ @2.00 on 5Dimes.
This is insane, the line is moving.

[Akatana]

Interesting situation... Thanks for your insight.
I took it @ 2.50 now on Bet365 lol small play

The Fluminense line is moving too and fast just like i predicted will go way below 1.50
On Pinnacle from 1.57 to 1.45 now in just a few hours.
On BetVictor 1.87 to 1.44 now

[Rumplebeanskin]

Hope Fluminense hits, took them -1, see what happens.

Anything has to be better than watching that pile of shit Spurs game, that one wasn't fun for me or my BR lol

[Akatana]

[Rumplebeanskin]

Bloody hell, ref's a bit feisty with these cards! Should probably have guessed when he booked someone before the game had even started

[Akatana]

Bloody hell, ref's a bit feisty with these cards! Should probably have guessed when he booked someone before the game had even started

Yeah way too feisty

[SarahPalin]

botafogo seem to be playing pretty good man