1. #211
    TomJSports
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    Friday's Games:

    Bayer Leverkusen at Freiburg – I like B04 in this matchup. As the coach has said, the squad has been performing well in continentals but no where near what they should be doing in domestic. That said, I expect the B04 squad to come in fully ready to embarrass a Freiburg squad. They will be playing a solid front four of Sam, Ballack, Schürrle, and Kießling, with Derdiyok ready off the bench. And they will be ready to score on the worst defense in the Bundesliga. As for Freiburg, aside from Cissé, they don't really have all that much to look forward to. But I do expect Cissé to get one by Leno, who has cooled off from his excellent form at the beginning of the season. So I like B04 and the over and put this as either a 2-1 or 3-1 B04 victory.

    St. Pauli at Union Berlin – Tough one to pick a winner, as both are in the promotion hunt along with Union great at home and St Pauli great on the road. If I had to guess, I'd go Union as they have been a fantastic 5-1 at home, but have only played the likes of Aachen, Ingolstadt, Bochum, and Karlsruhe lately. St. Pauli is usually a safe over bet at home, but on the road the give up less (4 road GA v. 11 home GA) and score less (9 away GF v. 16 home GF). But since Union is usually good for at least two at home and St. Pauli is usually good for one to two on the road, I'd say the over is a solid play. Both teams are basically playing their top squads as well. I like a 2-2 draw in this match.

    Aachen at Bochum – I like Bochum to win this one simply because Alemannia Aachen is just simply a bad team. Also this should be low-scoring, as Aachen plays extremely low scoring on the road, as evidenced by their last for of 1-1, 0-2, 0-0, and 0-0. Bochum has hit a few overs, but mostly courtesy of a bunch of goals conceded, something Aachen isn't capable of. Aachen is sitting Radjabali-Fardi in favour of Falkenberg on defense, allowing with toying with their front six quite a bit looking for something to work for a squad that has scored 6 goals all season. Bochum is essentially playing their full squad. I like Bochum to win at home 1-0 or 2-0.

    Cottbus at Hansa Rostock – Cottbus and Rangelov started off scoring a tonne in the early season, but have cooled off apparently remember Nils Peterson is now with Bayern. Cottbus has also lost four of their last five, and only won once in their last seven. What better way to turn it around than to play a poor Hansa Rostock squad? But this Rostock squad did beat 1860 at home a couple of weeks ago, so I'd be weary giving this one 100% to Cottbus. However, the under appears to be a very solid play with Rostock only scoring 4 and allowing 3 in six home games. And, in the last four meetings of the two teams, there have been three scoreless draws and one 2-0 victory. Rostock is also looking to start a squad with no true forward. But with both teams relatively healthy, I like this to be a low scorer, maybe Rangelov pots one for a 1-0 Cottbus win. But I could see this as a scoreless draw.

    Play of the day is the Aachen/Bochum under, with the Cottbuss/Rostock under close behind.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 2 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: escou, and cogiditopapa

  2. #212
    escou
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    Thank for the write up TJ always a pleasure reading them . Dont like unders, have no luck with the, so I will not spoil it for the rest of us Will go with the two overs and Leverkusen probably GL

  3. #213
    EasyPicks
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    Tom,

    do u still like ur first pick, even with Freiburg odds going down from 3.75 to 3.30 and B.Leverk going up 1.90 to 2.10??


  4. #214
    FindTheLock
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    I hate betting unders in bundy 2 matchups. GL man!

  5. #215
    Puda
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    Quote Originally Posted by TomJSports View Post
    Friday's Games:

    Bayer Leverkusen at Freiburg – I like B04 in this matchup. As the coach has said, the squad has been performing well in continentals but no where near what they should be doing in domestic. That said, I expect the B04 squad to come in fully ready to embarrass a Freiburg squad. They will be playing a solid front four of Sam, Ballack, Schürrle, and Kießling, with Derdiyok ready off the bench. And they will be ready to score on the worst defense in the Bundesliga. As for Freiburg, aside from Cissé, they don't really have all that much to look forward to. But I do expect Cissé to get one by Leno, who has cooled off from his excellent form at the beginning of the season. So I like B04 and the over and put this as either a 2-1 or 3-1 B04 victory.
    nice ..

    im hoping for 0-2...

  6. #216
    TomJSports
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    Quote Originally Posted by EasyPicks View Post
    Tom,

    do u still like ur first pick, even with Freiburg odds going down from 3.75 to 3.30 and B.Leverk going up 1.90 to 2.10??

    Only thing that worries me would be a draw. Let's be honest, it's Papiss Cissé vs. Bayer Leverkusen. Manuel Freidrich is in at centre back, who's pretty green, but the defense and Leno make up for it. And Sam, Ballack, Schürrle, and Kießling are up against the worst defense in the league. Throw in Robin Dutt wants to beat his old squad, he'll get B04 ready to perform. I'd like to see Freiburg get the win and keep things at the bottom interesting, but despite line movement I have faith that Leverkusen gets it done.

    Quote Originally Posted by FindTheLock View Post
    I hate betting unders in bundy 2 matchups. GL man!
    No kidding. It's an over league if there ever was any. However, historically Cottbus/Rostock are low scorers and only way Aachen/Bochum goes over is if Bochum gets 3, which I don't see happening. But of course, anything can happen

  7. #217
    Daveyboy
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    I'm with ya on Leverkusen

  8. #218
    CollegeOverUnder
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    Ballack goal in the 2nd minute I got them at +100 in live game betting in the first minute of the game lets hope t his holds now

  9. #219
    serc
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    I have a bad feeling that leverkusen will tank the game, I hope I am wrong

  10. #220
    CollegeOverUnder
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    Quote Originally Posted by serc View Post
    I have a bad feeling that leverkusen will tank the game, I hope I am wrong
    Live game betting has Freiburg at +825 Im pretty sure were ok

  11. #221
    CollegeOverUnder
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    My heart just stopped Cisse almost put one away Im sweating this game out

  12. #222
    serc
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    I am telling you. Leverkusen looks flat. This crap always happen in Bundesliga. Hope that we get this game 1-0
    Quote Originally Posted by CollegeOverUnder View Post
    My heart just stopped Cisse almost put one away Im sweating this game out

  13. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by serc View Post
    I am telling you. Leverkusen looks flat. This crap always happen in Bundesliga. Hope that we get this game 1-0
    your completely right Leverkusen is making me nervous as hell but just need to hold on a little longer

  14. #224
    CollegeOverUnder
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    Cisse with a yellow card !

  15. #225
    CollegeOverUnder
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    Leverkusen has to fking offense

  16. #226
    serc
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    The trainer of Leverkusen replaces an attacking player with defensive guy. I hope it works

  17. #227
    serc
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    Freiburg could win this game if they were talented in offense.

  18. #228
    serc
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    Another missed chance by Freiburg.

  19. #229
    serc
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    I think we are safe now.

  20. #230
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    thank goodness

  21. #231
    cogiditopapa
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    Quote Originally Posted by TomJSports View Post
    Friday's Games:

    Bayer Leverkusen at Freiburg – I like B04 in this matchup. As the coach has said, the squad has been performing well in continentals but no where near what they should be doing in domestic. That said, I expect the B04 squad to come in fully ready to embarrass a Freiburg squad. They will be playing a solid front four of Sam, Ballack, Schürrle, and Kießling, with Derdiyok ready off the bench. And they will be ready to score on the worst defense in the Bundesliga. As for Freiburg, aside from Cissé, they don't really have all that much to look forward to. But I do expect Cissé to get one by Leno, who has cooled off from his excellent form at the beginning of the season. So I like B04 and the over and put this as either a 2-1 or 3-1 B04 victory.

    St. Pauli at Union Berlin – Tough one to pick a winner, as both are in the promotion hunt along with Union great at home and St Pauli great on the road. If I had to guess, I'd go Union as they have been a fantastic 5-1 at home, but have only played the likes of Aachen, Ingolstadt, Bochum, and Karlsruhe lately. St. Pauli is usually a safe over bet at home, but on the road the give up less (4 road GA v. 11 home GA) and score less (9 away GF v. 16 home GF). But since Union is usually good for at least two at home and St. Pauli is usually good for one to two on the road, I'd say the over is a solid play. Both teams are basically playing their top squads as well. I like a 2-2 draw in this match.

    Aachen at Bochum – I like Bochum to win this one simply because Alemannia Aachen is just simply a bad team. Also this should be low-scoring, as Aachen plays extremely low scoring on the road, as evidenced by their last for of 1-1, 0-2, 0-0, and 0-0. Bochum has hit a few overs, but mostly courtesy of a bunch of goals conceded, something Aachen isn't capable of. Aachen is sitting Radjabali-Fardi in favour of Falkenberg on defense, allowing with toying with their front six quite a bit looking for something to work for a squad that has scored 6 goals all season. Bochum is essentially playing their full squad. I like Bochum to win at home 1-0 or 2-0.

    Cottbus at Hansa Rostock – Cottbus and Rangelov started off scoring a tonne in the early season, but have cooled off apparently remember Nils Peterson is now with Bayern. Cottbus has also lost four of their last five, and only won once in their last seven. What better way to turn it around than to play a poor Hansa Rostock squad? But this Rostock squad did beat 1860 at home a couple of weeks ago, so I'd be weary giving this one 100% to Cottbus. However, the under appears to be a very solid play with Rostock only scoring 4 and allowing 3 in six home games. And, in the last four meetings of the two teams, there have been three scoreless draws and one 2-0 victory. Rostock is also looking to start a squad with no true forward. But with both teams relatively healthy, I like this to be a low scorer, maybe Rangelov pots one for a 1-0 Cottbus win. But I could see this as a scoreless draw.

    Play of the day is the Aachen/Bochum under, with the Cottbuss/Rostock under close behind.

    All I can say is ,

  22. #232
    TomJSports
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    Yeah, Leverkusen had no business winning that, but that's how it goes sometimes. If Freiburg had anything resembling a real team, it would've been 3-1 SCF.

    Quote Originally Posted by cogiditopapa View Post
    All I can say is ,
    Thanks mate

  23. #233
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    Hannover at Gladbach – The big story is how H96 will come off their big win against Bayern and subsequent DFB Pokal disappointment. And Gladbach has been in poor form going 0-1-2 in their last three, with only one of those at home. This leaves it a tough to call match. If you look at the past twelve matches between these two squads, it remains tough to call. H96 is 8-0-4 with 26 goals for and 14 against, and the over/under being precisely 50/50. However this season, Gladbach is hitting the under 80% of the team, scored in 100% of their home matches, and Hannover has just 2 road goals on the year. Gladbach is just missing de Camago for the match, where as H96 is missing Pinto, Cherundolo, Hauger, and Sobiech. This is a tough to call match, but seems to point to a low scoring Gladbach win, maybe a draw.

    Nürnberg at Bayern – With Bayern coming in quite rested (a lot of tip players didn't play in the Pokal match) and angry after the H96 loss, I fully expect this derby to go like it often does: heavily in favour of Bayern. Okay, that's an overstatement, as Nürnberg is 'only' 0-3-3 recently in the derby and has scored 4 goals to Bayern's 11. However, Bayern has been steamrolling opponents at home, 19-1, and should continue in this match against a Nürnberg 0-3-2 in their last five. Bayern is pretty healthy and Robben and Boateng are resting. However Nürnberg is a beat up squad and that does not bode well. Over 3.5 is a hefty proposition as 3-0 is a solid Bayern trouncing, and Neuer should get back to putting up clean sheets. I really like Bayern -2, though.

    Hoffenheim at Schalke – Schalke remains to be a tough team to call in domestics, continentals, or cups. And Hoffenheim is always a strong squad. This young season, Hoffenheim is an under squad and Schalke is an over squad. In the last six matches between the two, a staggering five have been under 2.5. Hoffenheim is also a solid 3-2-1 in those matches, with a 2-0-1 record in Gelsenkirchen. Both teams are coming in pretty healthy. In goal, it'll be interesting to watch for both teams. Timo Hildebrand may get his first action as a Schalke keeper and Tom Starke may be out for Hoffenheim with a concussion. But even with the lineups being settled, this match is way too tough to call. Best play would be the under, but I could see this going absolutely any way.

    Dortmund at Stuttgart – BVB continues to be quite like Schalke in being unpredictable. However, they've been doing much better lately with 4 straight Bundesliga wins and a win against Dresden in the DFB Pokal, but poor showings in Greece and France. VfB, has been dong pretty well and is sitting at a surprising fifth in the Bundesliga. In the last 14 matches between the two, BVB is leading 6-4-4, and the over 2.5 is 8-6. However, in the last four years, the over has hit in Stuttgart, and each team is 2-0-2. So, this, again leaves a tough match to call. I like the under a bit with the way BVB plays on road Bundesliga matches, but I can see this going any way. Cacau and Tasci are slightly hindered by minor injuries, so that may be something to look out for. That will add value to the BVB win and the under, in my opinion. I'll probably lay off, but if I had to, I like BVB and the under.

    Hertha Berlin at Wolfsburg – Wolfsburg is a good home squad with their only defeat coming at the hands of Bayern. After posting back-to-back wins against VfB and BVB, Hertha has cooled off a bit and is 1-2-2 in their last five with the only win coming against lowly Köln. In the last eight matches between the two, Hertha is 3-4-1, and has outscored Wolfsburg 14-7 with the overs being 5-3. This year, both teams are solid over squads, but Wolfsburg has a pair of 1-0 results and a pair of 2-1 results at home, so the over isn't guaranteed. Both squads are also at full strength, so injuries won't come into play. All of this leaves a very tough to call match. I, personally, like a 2-2 draw. I see value in the draw, the over, and maybe a Wolfsburg home win to change recent history.

    Werder Bremen at Mainz – Werder Bremen is another squad of the Schalke/BVB ilk, in that their just flat out tough to call. On the other hand, Mainz is winless in their last eight (Bundesliga matches, they just beat H96 in DFB Pokal) and have conceded 11 goals in their 5 home games and have failed to score in two of them. With Werder's 1-2-2 record in their last five, only beating Hertha, and their 1-2-2 record on the road, only beating Hoffenheim. Mainz is missing Schönheim and Gopko and Bremen will be without Arnautovic (still suspended), Silvestre, Boenisch, and Avdic. So you could argue that leaves Mainz in better shape, but Bremen is a deeper squad with guys like Ekici pushing to play. I will play Werder Bremen to win, but only because +165 is great value for a team that should, by all means, win. And Mainz (and Wetklo) are due for a letdown after their DFB Pokal win. I think the over is a solid play, as well. Same with the draw.

    Karlsruhe at Dresden – Karlsruhe is up 7-3-3 in the alltime series vs. Dresden, but Dresden is in much better form coming into this matchup with a couple of big road wins at Braunschweig and 1860. Karlsruhe has also impressively allowed twice as many goals as they've scored (24 to 12). Dresden is an over squad 2/3 of the time home or away, but Karlsruhe is 50/50 overall and only 1/3 on the road. Dynamo Dresen will be starting their full compliment of forwards and midfielders, but will have Hesl in goal and untested (this year) old man Schnetzler at left back. Karlsruhe will be relatively healthy, as well, just sitting out midfielder Staffeldt. All things considered, with the form, I like Dynamo Dresden to win. The over has a solid chance to hit, but this could be a 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1, etc. win. So the best play is Dresden, maybe play PK.

    Aue at Paderborn – This should be a bad matchup for the Saxons even though Aue had a pair of 1-0 wins over Paderborn last year. Paderborn hasn't lost in 8 matches and Aue is a respectable 2-1-1 in their last four, including a win at Saint Pauli. The most marked stat is that Paderborn plays much tighter at home and is 2-2-1 and with 80% unders at home. Aue has a similar game on the road, in that 2/3 of their road matches have hit the under. Both teams are essentially coming in with their top squads, so I would expect it to continue. This match has a very good chance to hit the under, and I like Paderborn to win 1-0 or 2-0, but could see a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.


    Play of the day is easily Bayern -2 v. Nürnberg probably with the Paderborn under in second.
    Points Awarded:

    cogiditopapa gave TomJSports 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  24. #234
    M. Incroyable
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    Very nice write-up. Thanks Tom

  25. #235
    decado
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    unreal.. Gladbach > Hannover > Bayern

    great 4-0 for Bayern by the way. And I wish I watched Wolfsburg v Berlin (2:3). From what I heard, it was one hell of a game.

  26. #236
    TomJSports
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    Quote Originally Posted by decado View Post
    unreal.. Gladbach > Hannover > Bayern

    great 4-0 for Bayern by the way. And I wish I watched Wolfsburg v Berlin (2:3). From what I heard, it was one hell of a game.
    Heard the same. Love to see those Bayern castoffs do well.

  27. #237
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    Augsberg at Köln – The Billy Goats should take this win, but Augsberg is coming off of their first win at Mainz and a draw with Bremen, plus a DFB Pokal win. Not to mention that first-teamers Geromel, Novakovic, and Cihiare are out for Köln. Augsberg is at least relatively healthy and without suspensions, although they do not have a great squad and seem to rotate their back four on a game-by-game basis. Köln is a 70% over squad overall, but is 60% under at home, leaving to wonder how they will handle Augsberg at home. Augsberg is a consistent 60% under home or away. In a matchup between two lower-tier squads with poor defenses, this just ultimately becomes too tough to call. I would guess a Köln win and the over to hit in a 2-1 fashion. Draw has value, too.

    Lautern at Hamburg – Obviously, on paper, Hamburg is the far superior squad. However, they have not been a pretty squad on the pitch this year. They are 2-1-1 in their last four and still looking for their first win, and I say there's no time like the present. Petric is out, and Son performed well and is expected to be his replacement, as well Berg will be on the bench and looked capable in Cup play. Lautern has a full squad, but simply put, they should not win against a rival on the road. Especially with Hamburg taking the last 4 at home against Lautern. Lautern is also an over squad, and Hamburg is an under squad, but of the last 8 between the two, 7 went over. I like the intangibles Fink and Hamburg bring into this match, but there is value in the over and the draw. But my play is the Hamburg win.

    1860 at Duisburg – Overall, these are two solid over squads, but Duisburg is a little better at home at keeping goal totals down (1.33-0.83 per game at home vs. 1.08-1.41 overall) and same with 1860 on the road (1.5-2.33 per game on the road vs. 2.08-1.75 overall). And 1860 has been shutout on the road their last two on the road, once to a great Fürth squad and once to give Rostock their sole win. Soares will be missing on Duisburg's back line, as well as Kastrati up front. As for the Lions, it looks like Halfar and his three goals will be on the bench. 1860's front three of Volland, Lauth, and Aigner have combined for 15 goals and shouldn't get shut out in this one. Duisburg also has the 'coach just got sacked' potential edge in this one. So, I find it tough to pick a winner and can see it going either way. 1860 shouldn't get shut out, and I can see Duisburg getting a couple. I like the over and a 3-1, 2-2 type game. I also am inclined to play 1860 due to the tumultuous nature of Duisburg lately.

    Eintracht Frankfurt at Ingolstadt – Well this is essentially a 1.5 Bundesliga team at a 2.5 Bundesliga team and I fully expect the final score to show that. Ingolstadt has lost their last 4 including a home loss to lowly Bochum, plus throw in the Cup embarrassment against Bayern. Ingolstadt's last seven have featured 4 or more goals, as have their last 3 home matches. Eintracht, on the other hand, scores lots of goals against lesser opponents on the road. Eintracht is coming in with their top team ready to start, whereas Ingolstadt has top defender Biliskov and midfielder Leitl on the bench. Needless to say, this is looking like it could get out of hand. With an undefeated team fighting for promotion and a team looking like they're heading back to 3.Liga, this should be an easy one to call. Eintracht Frankfurt -1 is a great play, as is the over 3.

    Düsseldorf at FSV Frankfurt – These familiar foes are settling into familiar standings with FSV in the bottom half and Düsseldorf in the top half eying promotion. Düsseldorf, like Eintracht Frankfurt, is undefeated. FSV has had a run of bad luck at home lately, unable to pull of a win against bad or mediocre at best squads Cottbus and Aue. Interestingly both squads are good defensively and hit the under quite a bit by 2.Bundesliga standards: 83.3% at home for FSV and 66.7% on the road for Düsseldorf. FSV is still tweaking things with personnel on the back end but should hold strong. Chrisantus and Benyamina are both starting and the two guys that actually score on that FSV squad. Düsseldorf is playing a little weaker defense than usual: Juanan in and Langeneke out. Also, offense may be slightly weaker with Dum in for Lambertz at wing. These lineup modifications still have me liking Düsseldorf and the under, but not quite as strong. FSV +0.5 or the draw may hold some value, too.


    Play of the day is Eintracht -1.

  28. #238
    cogiditopapa
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    Man, I coudn't go to sleep before reading your articles. GL man, and I am sure I will tail some of your picks here!!!! GL

  29. #239
    Boxing Champ
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    Eintracht...... looks lackadaisical.. no drive, no hunger...
    We'll be lucky to push...
    They are not plying to win....
    Last edited by Boxing Champ; 10-30-11 at 08:43 AM.

  30. #240
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    I wish I went to sleep and didn't tail that stupid Eintracht...
    Funny looking game.. Don't know what to think....
    Sometimes I think all soccer is dirty....

  31. #241
    OGUCCI-SBR
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boxing Champ View Post
    I wish I went to sleep and didn't tail that stupid Eintracht...
    Funny looking game.. Don't know what to think....
    Sometimes I think all soccer is dirty....
    it is.

  32. #242
    FindTheLock
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    winning and losing is something you have to be able to cope with as a gambler. Can't expect to win them all. Just try to win more than you lose. Koln is killing them 3-0 at the moment. I tried to send my bet in on Koln, but I waited until the last minute and it didn't go through.

  33. #243
    TomJSports
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    Quote Originally Posted by cogiditopapa View Post
    Man, I coudn't go to sleep before reading your articles. GL man, and I am sure I will tail some of your picks here!!!! GL
    Thanks man!

    Quote Originally Posted by Boxing Champ View Post
    Eintracht...... looks lackadaisical.. no drive, no hunger...
    We'll be lucky to push...
    They are not plying to win....
    Quote Originally Posted by Boxing Champ View Post
    I wish I went to sleep and didn't tail that stupid Eintracht...
    Funny looking game.. Don't know what to think....
    Sometimes I think all soccer is dirty....
    Eintracht was ugly. No reason they shouldn't have beaten Ingolstadt handedly. Glad I laid off of Düsseldorf, because that looked like an under match. Should've given Düsseldorf a shot though, but I thought that lineup had a chance for FSV.

    Quote Originally Posted by FindTheLock View Post
    winning and losing is something you have to be able to cope with as a gambler. Can't expect to win them all. Just try to win more than you lose. Koln is killing them 3-0 at the moment. I tried to send my bet in on Koln, but I waited until the last minute and it didn't go through.
    Yeah, sad I held off of Köln, as well. Oh well!

  34. #244
    NYSportsGuy210
    NYSportsGuy210's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-07-09
    Posts: 11,347
    Betpoints: 131

    Any bundesliga plays for Monday?

  35. #245
    TomJSports
    Go Bayern!!!
    TomJSports's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-31-11
    Posts: 1,177
    Betpoints: 214

    Just the one Bundy 2 match I believe, I'll look into it in a bit.

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