Originally Posted by
TomJSports
Hannover at Gladbach – The big story is how H96 will come off their big win against Bayern and subsequent DFB Pokal disappointment. And Gladbach has been in poor form going 0-1-2 in their last three, with only one of those at home. This leaves it a tough to call match. If you look at the past twelve matches between these two squads, it remains tough to call. H96 is 8-0-4 with 26 goals for and 14 against, and the over/under being precisely 50/50. However this season, Gladbach is hitting the under 80% of the team, scored in 100% of their home matches, and Hannover has just 2 road goals on the year. Gladbach is just missing de Camago for the match, where as H96 is missing Pinto, Cherundolo, Hauger, and Sobiech. This is a tough to call match, but seems to point to a low scoring Gladbach win, maybe a draw.
Nürnberg at Bayern – With Bayern coming in quite rested (a lot of tip players didn't play in the Pokal match) and angry after the H96 loss, I fully expect this derby to go like it often does: heavily in favour of Bayern. Okay, that's an overstatement, as Nürnberg is 'only' 0-3-3 recently in the derby and has scored 4 goals to Bayern's 11. However, Bayern has been steamrolling opponents at home, 19-1, and should continue in this match against a Nürnberg 0-3-2 in their last five. Bayern is pretty healthy and Robben and Boateng are resting. However Nürnberg is a beat up squad and that does not bode well. Over 3.5 is a hefty proposition as 3-0 is a solid Bayern trouncing, and Neuer should get back to putting up clean sheets. I really like Bayern -2, though.
Hoffenheim at Schalke – Schalke remains to be a tough team to call in domestics, continentals, or cups. And Hoffenheim is always a strong squad. This young season, Hoffenheim is an under squad and Schalke is an over squad. In the last six matches between the two, a staggering five have been under 2.5. Hoffenheim is also a solid 3-2-1 in those matches, with a 2-0-1 record in Gelsenkirchen. Both teams are coming in pretty healthy. In goal, it'll be interesting to watch for both teams. Timo Hildebrand may get his first action as a Schalke keeper and Tom Starke may be out for Hoffenheim with a concussion. But even with the lineups being settled, this match is way too tough to call. Best play would be the under, but I could see this going absolutely any way.
Dortmund at Stuttgart – BVB continues to be quite like Schalke in being unpredictable. However, they've been doing much better lately with 4 straight Bundesliga wins and a win against Dresden in the DFB Pokal, but poor showings in Greece and France. VfB, has been dong pretty well and is sitting at a surprising fifth in the Bundesliga. In the last 14 matches between the two, BVB is leading 6-4-4, and the over 2.5 is 8-6. However, in the last four years, the over has hit in Stuttgart, and each team is 2-0-2. So, this, again leaves a tough match to call. I like the under a bit with the way BVB plays on road Bundesliga matches, but I can see this going any way. Cacau and Tasci are slightly hindered by minor injuries, so that may be something to look out for. That will add value to the BVB win and the under, in my opinion. I'll probably lay off, but if I had to, I like BVB and the under.
Hertha Berlin at Wolfsburg – Wolfsburg is a good home squad with their only defeat coming at the hands of Bayern. After posting back-to-back wins against VfB and BVB, Hertha has cooled off a bit and is 1-2-2 in their last five with the only win coming against lowly Köln. In the last eight matches between the two, Hertha is 3-4-1, and has outscored Wolfsburg 14-7 with the overs being 5-3. This year, both teams are solid over squads, but Wolfsburg has a pair of 1-0 results and a pair of 2-1 results at home, so the over isn't guaranteed. Both squads are also at full strength, so injuries won't come into play. All of this leaves a very tough to call match. I, personally, like a 2-2 draw. I see value in the draw, the over, and maybe a Wolfsburg home win to change recent history.
Werder Bremen at Mainz – Werder Bremen is another squad of the Schalke/BVB ilk, in that their just flat out tough to call. On the other hand, Mainz is winless in their last eight (Bundesliga matches, they just beat H96 in DFB Pokal) and have conceded 11 goals in their 5 home games and have failed to score in two of them. With Werder's 1-2-2 record in their last five, only beating Hertha, and their 1-2-2 record on the road, only beating Hoffenheim. Mainz is missing Schönheim and Gopko and Bremen will be without Arnautovic (still suspended), Silvestre, Boenisch, and Avdic. So you could argue that leaves Mainz in better shape, but Bremen is a deeper squad with guys like Ekici pushing to play. I will play Werder Bremen to win, but only because +165 is great value for a team that should, by all means, win. And Mainz (and Wetklo) are due for a letdown after their DFB Pokal win. I think the over is a solid play, as well. Same with the draw.
Karlsruhe at Dresden – Karlsruhe is up 7-3-3 in the alltime series vs. Dresden, but Dresden is in much better form coming into this matchup with a couple of big road wins at Braunschweig and 1860. Karlsruhe has also impressively allowed twice as many goals as they've scored (24 to 12). Dresden is an over squad 2/3 of the time home or away, but Karlsruhe is 50/50 overall and only 1/3 on the road. Dynamo Dresen will be starting their full compliment of forwards and midfielders, but will have Hesl in goal and untested (this year) old man Schnetzler at left back. Karlsruhe will be relatively healthy, as well, just sitting out midfielder Staffeldt. All things considered, with the form, I like Dynamo Dresden to win. The over has a solid chance to hit, but this could be a 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1, etc. win. So the best play is Dresden, maybe play PK.
Aue at Paderborn – This should be a bad matchup for the Saxons even though Aue had a pair of 1-0 wins over Paderborn last year. Paderborn hasn't lost in 8 matches and Aue is a respectable 2-1-1 in their last four, including a win at Saint Pauli. The most marked stat is that Paderborn plays much tighter at home and is 2-2-1 and with 80% unders at home. Aue has a similar game on the road, in that 2/3 of their road matches have hit the under. Both teams are essentially coming in with their top squads, so I would expect it to continue. This match has a very good chance to hit the under, and I like Paderborn to win 1-0 or 2-0, but could see a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.
Play of the day is easily Bayern -2 v. Nürnberg probably with the Paderborn under in second.