Originally Posted by
turbozed
Just finished tape on Caceres/Lobov and here's my analysis:
Artem Lobov vs Alex Caceres
Striking:
Like the Dunham/OAM matchup, this is going to be another southpaw vs southpaw matchup. Although in essence this just is a mirror of orthodox/orthodox, southpaws generally are less familiar with this matchup. Obviously, you can expect Lobov and Caceres to have prepared but, all things being equal, the unfamiliarity of the stance matchup might end up favoring Caceres here.
It's no secret what Lobov's biggest weakness is as it's now a solid mma meme. Lobov has absurdly short arms. In order to strike effectively, Lobov has had to walk forward and rely on his solid chin to get him into range. With his pressure, he's hoping to get his opponents to open up and land stronger counter shots in exchanges. Sometimes he will be successful leading but it takes very good timing, which he has developed. Unfortunately, his upright march forward to his opponents also leaves him very vulnerable to takedowns, and eating really hard shots at range.
Caceres is a long rangy fighter that seems like a horrible style matchup for Lobov. However, throughout his career, Caceres hasn't really used his length very well. He sometimes will jump well into his opponents range before throwing something, and has eaten some counters for making this mistake. Luckily for him he seems to have improved on this in his recent fights. Against Knight's relentless pressure, he was able to stay out of Knight's punching range for the most part and potshot at range. This led to Knight abandoning the striking and taking the fight to the mat. Against a reasonably skilled boxer in Rolando Dy, he spent a lot of the fight in a range where he could land but Dy could not. Unfortunately for Bruce Leroy, there really was no distance where he could touch Wang Guan and be safe from taking damage. Guan not only had similar length, but superior foot speed, hand speed, and timing. He was just outmatched.
Despite getting tooled in his last fight, there's a lot of reasons to like Caceres in the striking matchup. Aside from the obvious reach advantage, which is already a steep hill Lobov always has to climb, Caceres has some nice footwork as well. Lobov was successful backing up Fili and landing shots, but Fili's footwork was very predictable, consisting of circling to one side or the other (and more often than not into Lobovs power rear hand). Caceres has more lateral movement, and it's goofy and unpredictable. This is going to be an issue for Lobov who is already very reliant on his timing, and won't be used to fighting a southpaw, as now he's going to be fighting an erratic and spazzy one on top of that.
There's a good chance Lobov won't be able to figure out Caceres' timing until well into the fight, and drop the early rounds. Or, Lobov may get a bit reckless which might lead to an easy takedown. Which gets us into:
Grappling:
As mentioned earlier, Lobov needs to fight tall in order to overcome his reach advantage. Combined with pressuring style and he's an easy target for a takedown coming forward. This was evident in the Fili fight, and you also were left with the impression that Cub could've easily taken the fight there too, if he wasn't so invested in trying to knock Lobov out.
Luckily for Lobov, Caceres doesn't seem very interested in grappling these days. The last time we saw him successfully mix in TDs was against Cole Miller 4 fights ago. I don't expect Caceres to come in looking to grapple, but it's still an option if Lobov is coming forward and Caceres is having difficulty with the striking. With his high center of gravity, Lobov is particularly vulnerable to trips (check out that sweet O Guruma that Cub lands on him late in their fight), and Caceres can mix in these with striking to score easy points or to reset the action. In the clinch, Caceres is tenacious and will probably be busier. We saw him land some absurdly high knees on Rolando Dy with very little space to work. Because Lobov throws so hard to cover distance and still retain power, he's content to rest up in the clinch and this will be a bad idea against Caceres.
Intangibles:
The chin advantage clearly goes to Lobov. I don't know how he survived that head kick at the end of Rd1 against Filhi but he got up within seconds and didn't look shaky at all. Not sure how much longer that chin holds up but Caceres certainly isn't the one-hitter-quitter power puncher that you'd expect to punish Lobov's lack of defense. Caceres would need to land a perfect knee or a switch kick to the dome for a fight stopper. Compare this to Caceres getting clean clocked with a left hook by Guan in his last fight. That was clearly as saved by the bell as it gets. Still, Caceres eventually recovered to go the distance in that fight, so he will fight for your money.
I have avoided betting on Caceres in the past because he just doesn't have the mentality of a winner. Sometimes it feels like he's fighting an exhibition fight and just wants to show off his skills, rather than win fights. Going off memory, Caceres has stepped in to fight on short notice as well, so maybe there's another contributing factor. Luckily, Lobov isn't a winner either, as his 50/50 record clearly shows. Here the two have had time to prepare for one another.
Overall, if Caceres can play a successful outfighting game against Lobov, he will have control over all the positions in the match (distance, clinch, matwork). For Lobov, he's going to have to get Alex's timing very soon and hope to land something big. While this is entirely possible, it's probably not as likely as a relatively competitive striking matchup where Caceres lands more and stays out of enough trouble to earn a decision. As Caceres can also score points with TDs and in the clinch, I think he probably should be a bigger favorite, and was very good value at even odds.
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Thrilla gave turbozed 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
they made a great replacement fight with under a week left though so you cant be too mad... but id lean 90/10 khabib in this one even with all the momentum holloway has this is literally the worst style matchup for him possible
... Haven't watched any Lobov fights yet in preparation, but I am not sure I am going to find anything in tape study that would sway me off the opinion that Caceres has value here. I have created a spreadsheet of statistics I find valuable in compiling before doing any tape study, and this was one of the first times where one of the fighters was superior in almost every metric: Caceres is younger, has less total fights, greater reach, has a higher Quality Performance % (this is one "advanced metric" I value on Fightmatrix, it gives you a good idea of a fighter's consistency against acceptable level opponents), better total win %, better "Big League Record" (Fightmatrix), higher finish %, higher striking accuracy, better striking defense, and an underrated 82% takedown success rate, albeit on only 11 attempts (per UFC stats). Additionally, Caceres has remained generally competitive against a tougher level of competition (as you mentioned, Guan and Yair are much more gifted strikers than Lobov in every aspect, and Lobov doesn't have the strength and technique as a grappler or the willingness to grapple that Jason Knight has). On the other end, Lobov's only 2 recent wins were vs Ishihara and Avila, and these are about as low a level of competition as you will find in the UFC at 145. The one thing going for Lobov is that he is incredibly tough and tough to finish, only being KO'ed once and submitted twice in 29 career fights. Again, I probably need to watch tape of his recent fights, but Lobov has always appeared like a ride or die brawler; he is a BJJ blue belt, and his UFC profile says that he'd rather "save cuddles for the ladies" than grapple in the UFC. My initial lean was that the sub win for Caceres is very much in play, as he has been aggressive and successful with submission in the past, and his grappling strength, especially offensively, may lead him going down that path in this matchup (scored some takedowns and found his way on top in scrambles vs Yair). Still, the fact that Lobov hasn't been submitted in the UFC makes me curious. Lobov's 54% TDD is solid. I agree that Caceres appears to be the better striker by all accounts as well, and I trust your analysis, but again, I haven't watched any tape besides his Cub fight for me to be completely sure about that. I tend to think a fighter's statistics, resume of performances speak for themselves, and I don't see Lobov making any huge leaps in his overall game at age 31. If anyone would make a marginal leap, it would be Caceres, who is still only 29 and (I assume) is still training at MMA Lab. Like to hear your thoughts on this and if the -135 line on 5D is something you would consider.
