[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Tony Ferguson vs Khabib Nurmagomedov (for lightweight title)
Rose Namajunas vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk (for strawweight title)
Calvin Kattar vs Renato Moicano
Michael Chiesa vs Anthony Pettis
Paul Felder vs Al Iaquinta

FS1 8:00 pm ET
Felice Herring vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Ray Borg vs Brandon Moreno
Evan Dunham vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Devin Clark vs Mike Rodriguez

UFC Fight Pass, 6:00 pm ET
Chris Gruetzemacher vs Joe Lauzon
Ashlee Evans-Smith vs Bec Rawlings
Alex Caceres vs Artem Lobov
Kyle Bochniak vs Zabit Magomedsharipov

[Slevin07]

Wonder what Ferg by sub odds will be. I definitely see this fight playing out with Ferg on his back but he is pretty talented off it. Khabib points and Ferg sub hedge seem like my early thoughts.

Got a bit on Rose at +140, she rocked JJ twice in first fight while standing, wasn't a lucky strike or anything. Joanna has a history of being hittable early in fights.

Think I'm just going to leave Pettis and Chiesa alone.

[JIBBBY]

Looking forward to this event.. Hope the fighters stay healthy this go around..

[JC2008]

I think Rose has JJ's number....

[JIBBBY]

I think Rose has JJ's number....

I agree.. She blasted right through her in the first fight.. Don't see that changing in this short of time.. In on Thug Rose...

[Hugo de Naranja]

I agree.. She blasted right through her in the first fight.. Don't see that changing in this short of time.. In on Thug Rose...

Can Rose win a Decision here? I think she's live to get the finish for sure but I'm not sure she can outpoint JJ.

[JIBBBY]

Can Rose win a Decision here? I think she's live to get the finish for sure but I'm not sure she can outpoint JJ.

JJ very active.. If it goes the distance yes JJ probably gets it.. Good hedge play perhaps.. Hugo on it as usual...

Early props -

1111 Jedrzejczyk wins by 5 round decision

+190

1105 Namajunas wins inside distance

+206

[Thrilla]

Yeah JJ is active.

But who gets a takedown? Who lands harder? Who has more weapons? And when it comes to a decision. Who is the champ?..... You gotta take it from her...deserve to win that belt.


Conspiracy / fix wise
Rose is more marketable now for the UFC. People be hating JJ after embarrassing herself the last time. Convinced tapping to strikes after all that talk.

360 degree turnaround.

Public has much more love for Rose, the GSP of Womens MMA.

+Rose is American/ judges are probably American.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah JJ is active.

But who gets a takedown? Who lands harder? Who has more weapons? And when it comes to a decision. Who is the champ?..... You gotta take it from her...deserve to win that belt.


Conspiracy / fix wise
Rose is more marketable now for the UFC. People be hating JJ after embarrassing herself the last time. Convinced tapping to strikes after all that talk.

360 degree turnaround.

Public has much more love for Rose, the GSP of Womens MMA.

+Rose is American/ judges are probably American.

Can you explain this?

[Thrilla]

@Hugo

Her charachter/ personality

respect of opponent

Conscious awareness of being a role model.

[Hugo de Naranja]

@Hugo

Her charachter/ personality

respect of opponent

Conscious awareness of being a role model.

Interesting comparison.

[Sirius]

Tony Ferguson or nothing for lifeee

...look at those elbows off his back

Not this time Khabib...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Tony Ferguson or nothing for lifeee

...look at those elbows off his back

Not this time Khabib...

I think Tony has the best striking off his back of anyone in the UFC. That could present a unique threat to Khabib in their matchup.

[turbozed]

After watching a bit of tape on JJ vs Rose rematch, I'm leaning JJ, especially at these short odds.

JJ is going to be stronger than Rose in the clinch and I don't think Rose has the strength to take JJ down.

JJ's footwork and distance management against Rose in that first match was way off. Either there was something very wrong with JJ (possible since she claimed a botched weight cut) or she just didn't respect Rose's power whatsoever.

In any event, if you compare her movement and distance striking against Andrade, JJ is moving constantly and angling off after striking. Granted, Andrade's straightforward movement is easier to predict than Rose's. But, against Rose JJ planted her feet and hesitated to throw either the single jab or the push kick (leg jab). She just stood there for a second too long which gave Rose the opportunity to land shots.

If JJ can employ the same gameplan and execute the same strikes and movement that she's capable of, she should win on points. But JJ should take a page out of Karolina's gameplan in Rds 2 and 3 of her fight with Rose and look to land in the clinch. Rose is technical but not physical. Karolina absolutely wrecked Rose with knees and elbows, and JJ is even stronger in the clinch than Karolina. JJ's is so strong that she was the only one who remotely held her own against Andrade there.

[Richard Clock]

After watching a bit of tape on JJ vs Rose rematch, I'm leaning JJ, especially at these short odds.

JJ is going to be stronger than Rose in the clinch and I don't think Rose has the strength to take JJ down.

JJ's footwork and distance management against Rose in that first match was way off. Either there was something very wrong with JJ (possible since she claimed a botched weight cut) or she just didn't respect Rose's power whatsoever.

In any event, if you compare her movement and distance striking against Andrade, JJ is moving constantly and angling off after striking. Granted, Andrade's straightforward movement is easier to predict than Rose's. But, against Rose JJ planted her feet and hesitated to throw either the single jab or the push kick (leg jab). She just stood there for a second too long which gave Rose the opportunity to land shots.

If JJ can employ the same gameplan and execute the same strikes and movement that she's capable of, she should win on points. But JJ should take a page out of Karolina's gameplan in Rds 2 and 3 of her fight with Rose and look to land in the clinch. Rose is technical but not physical. Karolina absolutely wrecked Rose with knees and elbows, and JJ is even stronger in the clinch than Karolina. JJ's is so strong that she was the only one who remotely held her own against Andrade there.

Nice insight and thanks for posting. I have that lingering feeling that Rose's win vs JJ is not as "flukey" as the line indicates. I tend to think Rose is as good as what she showed the first time around: she is only 25 and seemingly making vast improvements each fight, completely dedicated to the craft, and may pose a stylistic matchup that challenges JJ more than other fighters of similar talent. Also, perhaps the brutal cut and grind of these five round wars (Claudia and Andrade fights were both competitive (albeit to varying degrees) 5 rounders, rocked by Karolina) is taking a mental and physical toll on JJ. Between your insight, which I am sure other sharp people wold agree with, and the fact that JJ somewhat recently handled both elite technicians Claudia and Andrade, I feel more comfortable giving JJ the benefit of the doubt. Ultimately, I think this fight will settle somewhere in the middle of people's expectations, with a close split decision. Perhaps I need to look at the tape more, but I wouldn't at all count out Rose winning a competitive decision. I will probably end up taking that or the Rose handicap. The clear value play was Rose +180 near open, which I was foolish not to jump on.

[Thrilla]

[rsynweap84]

Think Rose all the tools to finish JJ again, but seeing as how Joanna was already at weight as of March 8/9 I think she’s intending to make it a point fight. I think she’ll be taking this fight much more seriously this time, and when she is in the right mind JJ is just point scoring phenom.

[PaperTrail07]

Please MMA gods nobody get HURT LOL LOL.....PLEASE 1 TIME

[PaperTrail07]

5 round war edged by Khabib ........

[Thrilla]

Joannas record 14-1-0

That 1 loss is to Rose, and a finish to strikes. Something tells me there will be an extra element of fear in JJ.

Anyone know the stats for re-match results when its a short time inbetween fights. Feels like in favour of the winner of the first fight.

Off the dome

Quick re-match.
McGregor won his re-match vs Nate. Could have gone either way.

Long time-span
Bisping beat Hendo
Holloway beat Aldo.

[Beelzebubzy]

Joannas record 14-1-0

That 1 loss is to Rose, and a finish to strikes. Something tells me there will be an extra element of fear in JJ.

Anyone know the stats for re-match results when its a short time inbetween fights. Feels like in favour of the winner of the first fight.

Off the dome

Quick re-match.
McGregor won his re-match vs Nate. Could have gone either way.

Long time-span
Bisping beat Hendo
Holloway beat Aldo.

Edgar vs Penn 1
Edgar vs Penn 2

Silva vs Weidman 1
Silva vs Weidman 2

[JollyRogerMMA]

I will be firing on Thug Rose all the Way Down to +100 Stay Tuned

[Thrilla]

In combatsports, think its better to build up confidence before going for a re-match.

[Thrilla]

[jrgum3]

Now this is one PPV that should live up to the hype. I end up buying them when I'm home because of Draftkings but I am definitely excited for this one.

[rsynweap84]

I dunno why, but when I was bettin Moreno by Sub props yesterday at 2:00pm central time, the line I took was +1040, overnight at work I was checkin' it to do some more parlays when I got home, around 2-3am this mornin it was +975...

I get home and start, bettin, but find the line down to +790, this was around 5-6am...

Is this significant? Did the oddsmakers adjust, or did someone bet the livin' shitz outta the line?

Huuuuuuuuuuuugo!?! Are you tankin' the Moreno SUB line?

[turbozed]

I dunno why, but when I was bettin Moreno by Sub props yesterday at 2:00pm central time, the line I took was +1040, overnight at work I was checkin' it to do some more parlays when I got home, around 2-3am this mornin it was +975...

I get home and start, bettin, but find the line down to +790, this was around 5-6am...

Is this significant? Did the oddsmakers adjust, or did someone bet the livin' shitz outta the line?

Huuuuuuuuuuuugo!?! Are you tankin' the Moreno SUB line?

These prop lines are easily influenced by very minimal action. I've moved these lines a few pts with just $20 at times. I took the Moreno sub line at +900 too btw.

[Sirius]

Khabib has peaked and is going a tumblin' down.

I love what Khabib is saying headed into this... I love how most are assuming he wins.

There's a point that some fighters reach where they seem invincible (and I think many see Khabib that way right now) and that's when they fall.

Tony is a different fighter of the future having all the X-factors an MMA fighter needs while Khabib is a one trick pony fighter of the past.
I believe in this so much right now. The only way Tony loses is if it goes to judges but I don't think he's going to be playing around for 25 minutes.

Tony will prove that he is the best.

Khabib is so Fked here

I see Khabib losing 2 in a row...
I'm close to calling Tony taking out Khabib a

[Sirius]

I need Tony, Poirer, and DC to win $1,200 CAD baby
3 selections already won...$10 wager

I believed in these guys and they're coming through. Tony was the biggest dog...

The hype is increasing daily

[Hugo de Naranja]

Is anyone else going to this one?

[UncleChael]

I cant wait till Tony knocks out Khabib..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I dunno why, but when I was bettin Moreno by Sub props yesterday at 2:00pm central time, the line I took was +1040, overnight at work I was checkin' it to do some more parlays when I got home, around 2-3am this mornin it was +975...

I get home and start, bettin, but find the line down to +790, this was around 5-6am...

Is this significant? Did the oddsmakers adjust, or did someone bet the livin' shitz outta the line?

Huuuuuuuuuuuugo!?! Are you tankin' the Moreno SUB line?

I haven't bet it yet but am planning to.

[JIBBBY]

Down time now between events

[Sanity Check]

Thankfully we have bellator 196 on april 6th, Benson Henderson vs Roger Huerta, to help save us from the lull.

The two weeks should go by quick.

[Demonata]

Khabib going to win. He's a god and a bear reincarnated. Maybe a god bear