[PerfectGrape]

down to -3 -101

[KVB]

You have seen that Atlanta +134 moneyline on my pending page, bought early. I thought it might bet he best price back then. It quickly went to +140 and has been there for almost two weeks.

Now the money line is +130.

Pinny shows -3 at +108. I'm seeing -3 (+100) in the trading account.

Matsuyama is tied at 17 under with Webb Simpson. Simpson was about 80-1, Matsuyama was one of the tourney favorites at 10-1.

It looks like the anticipated favorite coming back may have occurred, it looks like it. We could still see extra holes.

That Atlanta pressure showing a little bit here. The TOTAL is now 56.5..lol.


It's as though the market has gone from selling the NE, which is never necessary, to selling Atlanta.

Let's see if it steams. Better yet, let's see if Matsuyama fails here, to see if he misleads the marketplace.

[KVB]

Imagine that, extra holes on SuperBowl Sunday. With a clear favorite and a clear underdog playing.

[KVB]

Imagine that, another playoff hole.

[KVB]

Heavy fluctuation on the TOTALS. Like I alluded to earlier, these moves aren't significant, the books could go back and forth all day long here.

Back to 57.5.

[KVB]

I took UNDER 57.5 (-101) in the trading account.

Probably some live trading to come.

Short Description

Football - 102 Atlanta Falcons +134 for Game

Football - 101 New England Patriots/Atlanta Falcons under 57½ -101 for Game

[KVB]

That's a bold play as I took UNDER 57.5 (-101) for Atlanta vs. New England.

Good Luck

[KVB]

Superbowl has begun and still no answer in golf.

Imagine that.

[KVB]

Went live with the UNDER as well...

Short Description

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Phoenix Open - Odds to win PGA Phoenix Open 2017 - Phil Mickelson +2750

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Phoenix Open - Odds to win PGA Phoenix Open 2017 - Patrick Reed +3200

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Phoenix Open - Odds to win PGA Phoenix Open 2017 - Brendan Steele +3300

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Phoenix Open - Odds to win PGA Phoenix Open 2017 - Daniel Berger +6600

- Game Total: Under 56.5 -117.172 - Sun Feb 05 2017 18:16EST: NE Patriots vs ATL Falcons

- Game Total: Under 56.5 -122.222 - Sun Feb 05 2017 18:16EST: NE Patriots vs ATL Falcons

[stevenash]

Heavy fluctuation on the TOTALS. Like I alluded to earlier, these moves aren't significant, the books could go back and forth all day long here.

Back to 57.5.

Like a yo-yo
We can get an easy in game middle if this stays scoreless a little longer.

[KVB]

Like a yo-yo
We can get an easy in game middle if this stays scoreless a little longer.

I think this one stays UNDER this time, I'm holding and will let them burn me.

Golf still not giving us an answer...

[stevenash]

Superbowl has begun and still no answer in golf.

Imagine that.

Golf?
What's that?

[stevenash]

In game total is now 48

When it gets to 44.5 or under I pounce.

[KVB]

Matsuyama, the favorite, is the winner.

In my opinion, the probability of Atlanta covering the 3 points just went up significantly, only now it's pretty hard to get 3.

[stevenash]

Live in game total now at 46

[KVB]

We might get out of the first quarter without a score...



This game is going to have a good ending.

[KVB]

[KVB]

43.5 Nash.

That's tempting for sure.

[stevenash]

43.5 Nash.

That's tempting for sure.

Got it

I have over 43.5 in game live for 50
I have game under 58 for 200

Just wanted that 14 point plus middle.
Perfect

[KVB]

We might get out of the first quarter without a score...

...

Remember that I mentioned early 2nd quarter TD's lead to OVERs.



In addition, Matusyama wins and then Atlanta takes the lead, a bit too perfect.



NE +143 moneyline live looks tempting as well.

[KVB]

[KVB]

Got it

I have over 43.5 in game live for 50
I have game under 58 for 200

Just wanted that 14 point plus middle.
Perfect

Good timing and good trade. Let's see how it plays out.

[KVB]

...It's tough to see Atlanta AND the UNDER coming in this game...

Short Description

Football - 102 Atlanta Falcons +134 for Game

Football - 101 New England Patriots/Atlanta Falcons under 57½ -101 for Game

That's how it's showing now. My bets a can only lose from here.

[PerfectGrape]

congrats

[KVB]

But this game is not over Grapes. I think we all know it's likely going to coming down to the wire.

See my post about dynasties and Tiger Woods.

[PerfectGrape]

sorry. lot of time left

[PerfectGrape]

wow

[KVB]

wow

Don't tell me you are surprised? It's the whole reason I wrote all that I wrote. It's about steering money and taking it down. I couldn't scream any louder once Atlanta had a three score lead, sharks abound and rightfully so. After seeing where the money falls, I hope these posts reveal a little more into why I say I hate to lead early in certain plays. Either way, through the NFL playoffs I think we've seen a lot about why money falls where it does, how it gets steered, and how it gets take down.

The Patriots get to play that role this year, as they have many times in the past.

See that post about dynasties and Woods, do you think I ever expected to hit the Atlanta and UNDER? I'll be honest, I never did. I thought NE would win by 3 points, backing out of the whole deal and that Atlanta was bought very early. It's the only Atlanta I owned. TOTALs have been a disaster most of the playoffs and it fits to go to OT and land right on 62 points (sharp forecast said 31-31).

How about the post about market mechanics and prices, and how the Pittsburgh bettors were being scared off, and then checking the line on the Pats? Pricing in those numbers has it's own give and take, this time the books took that side.

For this week, after seeing the golf relationship play out during the championship weekend, I get to be wrong about the golf as I maintain the Matsuyama, while not the outright favorite was a definite favorite this weekend.

Like I was saying, it sure seemed like we were being walked into the dog play. It's the reason I didn't press it from that early buy and stuck with the UNDER, but I would not have taken the Patriots or the OVER...again, see the post about dynasties and Tiger Woods.

As far as the golf relationship, I say, once again, there will be repercussions.

My only regret is not being around Friday and Saturday night to complete the golf picture, but we'll have plenty golf coming up.

So while everyone cheers the Pats and call them the greatest, once again some pros and analysts find themselves grumbling a little bit.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

And so we move on to the next game. The next big one will be NCAA Hoops.

[PerfectGrape]

lot of planets had to align for them to cover, you don't find it a little extraordinary?

[KVB]

lot of planets had to align for them to cover, you don't find it a little extraordinary?...

Here's my view on this. I expect the comeback, when the professionals bring it, it was expected.

Sure an amazing catch or kick might make it look improbable, but a world where that catch needs to get made and doesn't often finds some penalty call, or unsportsmanlike behavior, that fixes the situation.

I've just seen too much of it. It goes both ways as well. How about that great catch made to put Seattle on the 1 yard line at the end of a Superbowl against the Pats? Amazing and as Seattle looked like it was sealed, a one yard slant interception gets thrown.

I've seen so many market situations play out, with both athlete success and failure, that very little surprises or amazes me.

In Plato's Parable of the Cave, every drop and catch, regardless of how amazing or unlikely, is still just a shadow on the wall. It's tough to accept, that's why I think it's best shown by example.

In this weekend's example, I had some things right, and some wrong. Having one favorite golfer and one underdog golfer in a playoff that isn't decided until SuperBowl kickoff was the prediction I wanted the thread to see by example, making the correct bet on the SuperBowl was secondary and not even necessary. After all, the best playoff bets had already passed. I put it off but finally made the UNDER call in the thread at market close, right near game time.

Some examples may come across easier if everything bet is always right, but it's not realistic.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

I win more than I lose over these last 6 years

I still do believe I find edges betting on professional sports

BUT

its still gambling. Tonight makes me glad Im only a small bettor and never go all in

[KVB]

[KVB]

I win more than I lose over these last 6 years

I still do believe I find edges betting on professional sports

BUT

its still gambling. Tonight makes me glad Im only a small bettor and never go all in

I would have liked to see the UNDER, but that game winner and spread was going to be a close one no matter.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

tonight didnt even happen

we are all sleeping

[Fidel_CashFlow]

I would have liked to see the UNDER, but that game winner and spread was going to be a close one no matter.

There are prolly 10 dif plays in the last 18 minutes of that game where if any single
one of them woulda microscopically went differently it would of secured the win for Atlanta

I mean how ... the almost picks that are dropped,

the almost picks that are dropped for receptions by New England

The timing of the penalties

the play calling

the untimely fumbles

the sacks where a regular 2nd string QB let alone the MVP wouldnt allowed being sacked

gotta repeat , the fukkin playcalling

its too much . The bad challenges which cost timeouts for ATL

ATL not lettin them score right away so they would have time to score themselves if New England converted

ATL snapping the ball with 20 secs left

This is the biggest combined team , from QB, to players, to offensive and defensive players and coordinators

you will EVER see in the history of organized professional sports.

Something needs to be done about this. Game replayed, doesnt count. Someone murdered on live TV

from the Falcons coaching roster

ANYTHING, something needs to be done. This doesn't happen in real life.

To prove it, pinch yourself in a couple seconds. This is just a dream. You are sleeping

Enjoy tomorrows super bowl between the Falcon and Patriots , Falcons will win