You'remaking it more complicated than it is. The draw is a 0EVsituations so shouldn't factor into the calculations.
Just calculate the fair price of a win vs a loss only, and calculate kelly based on that. The draw factor should be taken out of each side.
Also,you're just betting moneylines vs betting Asian Handicaps in the past(1x2 lines). In the US most sports are handled as ML, with someoutliers. Sportsbetting used to offer 1x2 lines on MMA betting!