[Ballerholic]

Sports
Well, well, well, where do I begin. So over the past 2 days I’ve lost $100 in 5dimes. I’ve currently got a Tiger Woods prop bet that is going to lose as well so I currently have $316 in the sportsbook. We finally hit that downswing I new was coming trying to roll these funds over. Anyway, I started on Dec. 1 and I’m up 2 units so I am content with the current situation. I just spoke to 5dimes chat and I have about $164 left to rollover before I can withdraw my funds. This morning I have 4 bets going on the Lions, Saints, Cardinals and Falcons. Unfortunately, I ended up taking the Falcons twice and I now am risking $80 (4 units) on that game. So this game is really going to mean a lot to me, disregarding the other games this game can put us back up to $400 or down to $240. I think the Falcons deserve to be a big play and I actually copied the game from another respected capper’s play. I’ll post his writeup here:


Situational spot of the year. The Chiefs just played an emotional full five quarters on SNF at Denver and won an overtime thriller. You know the trend - road teams who played five full quarters (off a tie) are 0-9 SUATS, losing by 16.7 PPG. It's not just a letdown spot, they also have a TNF game vs. Oakland on deck. I don't see them being 100% focused this week. Remember what happened to the last two 'five-quarter-teams' Cardinals and Seahawks, they came out very flat and didn't cover their spreads. Hawks benefited from an early fumble six, otherwise it would have been an easy day for the Saints. Also, the Falcons have been at home the last three weeks. From a matchup standpoint, the Falcons have exactly what it takes to cover a spread vs the Chiefs - a good OL and a phenomenal passing game. Go into a shootout with Alex Smith and Andy Reid and it's gonna be tough for them to keep the pace. Justin Houston & Dee Ford aren't 100%, Marcus Peters is playing on one leg - Falcons should be able to move the ball with ease. What's also intersting, is the pythagorean and FO estimated win differential. Falcons have a +1 pythagorean and a +2.9 estimated value advantage. Seeing a 37-17 type of game. Sold the line to -4 to get an extra 10% on the line. 3.1% of 3.5s have landed on 4.


Poker
So the shot at 25NL failed. I have lost a total of €200 which means I have €200 left for poker. I’m going to take these funds and deposit into 888 and just play over there. The 10nl games over there are good, and I much prefer to play fast poker vs regular. I’ve got a 6bb/100 winrate there so the plan is to grind up $100 more and take a 5BI shot at some 20-25NL. The shot failed due to poor play and being a calling station. I have a tougher time over at Partypoker, but at iPoker I was up money after RB was calculated. For some reason iPoker speed I seem to play better at and I think I’ll stick to those games for my next shot. The goal is to play 10nl 888 until I have $100 for a shot take. If I can withdraw funds from 5dimes I will use that money as my poker money and try to merge both poker and sports funds.

[Ballerholic]

The sports BR sites at $250 currently. I need to roll over $55 more before I can withdraw my funds. I've got 1 game in mind each of the next 3 days so this shouldn't be a problem. I am up $47 in poker since moving back to 10nl. So roll is about $247 for poker. $47 is not bad for 1.5 hours of poker lol. I think I'm winning at 55bb/100 so far. Anyway, goal is to get this roll up to $300 to take a shot at some 20nl. Almost there.

Raptors +1 vs Cavaliers

Looking at the Raptors game tonight. They got knocked out the playoffs against the Cavs and have lost the past two games against the Cavs as well. There is no one they want to prove to themselves they can beat than the Cavs a huge conference rival. Raptors are on something like a 6 game win streak while the Cavs are on a 3 game losing streak. I don't see how this line could go any higher barring any injury. Hot Raptors team vs cold Cavaliers team. If raptors win this they will take first in the conference. A big game here for both sides who will be extremely motivated. It's hard to beat the 2nd best team in the conference 3 times in a row.

[sweep]

[sinmiedo]

I have no post in a while , mostly for been busy at work, but also because I busted again my last roll ( from 200 to 1800) in October. That was my 4th run and bust and always takes about a week to build and hours to bust.
Started in November a new one ( only for online play ) with $150 and as usual in a few days , up again to 2200 but this time most of the plays are hit an run . Some good finishing in tournaments has helped a lot to the cause.
Laat night again was a correction ( variance) night, where I lost 1000 in a few hours losing about 23 buy ins and 8 tournament entry , but I did well in a few sng and cash a small amount in a tournament .
Was a disaster playing PLO Lossing 10 buy ins and Holden was the same , till I decided to start moving from table to table if I was down 20% .
This as usual withing 4 hours of bad beats and mostly risky plays.
Upset and disappointed, I moved to the 2 4 where I bought for 210 , desperate to recuperate the losses as many times before, as a perfect bad player that I m .
Formally I made the right desicionon in a few pots and run with 400 profit, submerging the winnings in the 1 2 buying for 100 at each table and managed to double up in one and triple up in another bringing my losses to only 225 that feel like a wonderful win, A very stupid feeling.
Good luck to all and protect the bank roll.
" In a poker table fear is not an option"
Sin
FWI : present online B R
$ 2600.

[sweep]

I have no post in a while , mostly for been busy at work, but also because I busted again my last roll ( from 200 to 1800) in October. That was my 4th run and bust and always takes about a week to build and hours to bust.
Started in November a new one ( only for online play ) with $150 and as usual in a few days , up again to 2200 but this time most of the plays are hit an run . Some good finishing in tournaments has helped a lot to the cause.
Laat night again was a correction ( variance) night, where I lost 1000 in a few hours losing about 23 buy ins and 8 tournament entry , but I did well in a few sng and cash a small amount in a tournament .
Was a disaster playing PLO Lossing 10 buy ins and Holden was the same , till I decided to start moving from table to table if I was down 20% .
This as usual withing 4 hours of bad beats and mostly risky plays.
Upset and disappointed, I moved to the 2 4 where I bought for 210 , desperate to recuperate the losses as many times before, as a perfect bad player that I m .
Formally I made the right desicionon in a few pots and run with 400 profit, submerging the winnings in the 1 2 buying for 100 at each table and managed to double up in one and triple up in another bringing my losses to only 225 that feel like a wonderful win, A very stupid feeling.
Good luck to all and protect the bank roll.
" In a poker table fear is not an option"
Sin
FWI : present online B R
$ 2600.

what site(s) do you play on Sin?

[sinmiedo]

I play at Bodog

[Ballerholic]

Damn sin that's insane. How do you handle that kind of variance? That's why I play cash, I'm not capable of handling that.


So I spoke with 5dimes and they informed me that I actually have $200 left to rollover. They made a mistake earlier when calculating unfortunately. Due to this I took 6 games on the board that I didn't post last night and went 1-5. I must be a terrible handicapper. In the course of 1 week I've started with $280 and ran it up to $430, only to bring it back down to the current bankroll of $170. So about -5 units for the week. Variance can be insane especially when i'm betting large portions of my bankroll on games, but I really need to rollover this cash before the holidays. At the moment I should have around $70 left to rollover before I can withdraw. Luckily I've increased my poker BR to $165. Up 6.5 BIs in one day (2.5 hours) is pretty damn good. It really sucks that I have to take funds out of my accounts for the upcoming holidays, so I think I may just keep play 888 10nl and just stay on this site. If I didn't keep taking my funds out I'd have at least $600 in my poker accounts right now. I seem to have pretty good success on 888 and I'll just move up to 20nl on 888 when I've got the roll to shot take it. Basically my goal is to play on sites where I'm +EV and move up to a limit where paying $65 for a coaching lesson isn't going to kill my bankroll. I find 888 to be soft enough. Usually when playing fast poker games, most players play very tight especially since they can just fold their hand to better holdings, but at 888 there are definitely some fish and crazy maniacs. Unfortunately there is no HUD on the snap tables, but that's mainly an advantage for against other players who rely too much on their HUDs. I think I'll also venture into some tournament play once my exams are over this month as I hear those are very soft and could produce big scores!

Pistons -6 vs Bulls

Bulls have a huge schedule disadvantage here and should be very flat/tired.

[Ballerholic]

Leeeettttt'ssssss GGGGOOOOOOO!!!!

Went 2-0 last night. I ended up taking Duke vs Florida as well. Luckily the Pistons came back in the 4th against a tired Bulls squad. So up $40 from yesterday and the sports BR sits at $210. I'm pretty sure I only have $40 more to rollover before I can request a cashout. Unfortunately I'm not rolling in the cash right now, but $210 is a pretty penny. Anyway there are a few games I like on the board tonight.

Bucks -2

Good team playing good home team ball. Young and feisty. Better home record than Blazers away record.

Pacers -4.5

Pacers just lost by 36 to the Warriors. They had their entire lineup out there with no injuries and still got smacked. I think this is different from when they got smacked earlier by the Warriors since in that game PG, Turner, and Miles were all out. Anyway, that's a pretty embarrassing loss especially when you have an all star like PG on the team. Bounce back game here I believe.

*I will almost 100% be taking the Clippers tonight. I really like them in this spot.

Poker went well yesterday. I had a downswing of probably 2 BIs which is not bad at all, but I ended up turning that into a small profit for the day. I probably won't be playing too much poker this week as I've got exams the next. But starting on Friday December 16th, I'm going to go hard on playing some poker. I'll have 8 days until I fly back to the U.S. so I'll try to make a decent profit and then hopefully play some Ignition Poker and see what all the fuss is about.

[sweep]

Leeeettttt'ssssss GGGGOOOOOOO!!!!

Went 2-0 last night. I ended up taking Duke vs Florida as well. Luckily the Pistons came back in the 4th against a tired Bulls squad. So up $40 from yesterday and the sports BR sits at $210. I'm pretty sure I only have $40 more to rollover before I can request a cashout. Unfortunately I'm not rolling in the cash right now, but $210 is a pretty penny. Anyway there are a few games I like on the board tonight.

Bucks -2

Good team playing good home team ball. Young and feisty. Better home record than Blazers away record.

Pacers -4.5

Pacers just lost by 36 to the Warriors. They had their entire lineup out there with no injuries and still got smacked. I think this is different from when they got smacked earlier by the Warriors since in that game PG, Turner, and Miles were all out. Anyway, that's a pretty embarrassing loss especially when you have an all star like PG on the team. Bounce back game here I believe.

*I will almost 100% be taking the Clippers tonight. I really like them in this spot.

Poker went well yesterday. I had a downswing of probably 2 BIs which is not bad at all, but I ended up turning that into a small profit for the day. I probably won't be playing too much poker this week as I've got exams the next. But starting on Friday December 16th, I'm going to go hard on playing some poker. I'll have 8 days until I fly back to the U.S. so I'll try to make a decent profit and then hopefully play some Ignition Poker and see what all the fuss is about.

variance just whipped my ass on Stars.....flopped 3 sets in under an hour and lost all 3. One to quads and 2 others to some runner runner shit

[Ballerholic]

damn man that's pretty bad. That would tilt me so hard. What games do you play on stars?

[sweep]

anywhere from .10nl to 1.00nl

I play a lot during non-peak times due my work schedule so usually whatever game I can get a seat the fastest. I'm in New Jersey so the player pool is not that big. Play mostly early in the a.m.

[Ballerholic]

damn that's a huge range. What is the traffic like over in NJ, what's the peak?

[sweep]

weekday peak 5pm-1am

weekend peak noon-5am

right now there's 900+ players online

I play mostly early morning weekdays and anytime on the weekends unless im out drinking and watching football lol

[Ballerholic]

haha 900+ isn't the worst. I don't know why they can't just open the player pools. I know it would be tough to figure out profits for each state, but it would grow the game so much.

[sweep]

haha 900+ isn't the worst. I don't know why they can't just open the player pools. I know it would be tough to figure out profits for each state, but it would grow the game so much.

i agree, have heard wispers of combining NJ/Delaware pools but it looks like Delaware wants to jump in with Nevada instead.

[sinmiedo]

well, is not great but i still trying to brake 2000 again. not easy without playing tournaments. lost about 1400 last week and recoup most of it last night, br now 1860. out of the 2600 i had last week.
i may take a few days off to recharge and play tournaments.

[sweep]

what cash limits you play Sin?

[Ballerholic]

so I had to cash over $400 from both of my accounts over the past few days. With the $20 I had I bet army and under and I now have $20 in sports and $20 in poker. I use some of the poker funds on sports as well. Let's see how far I can build this roll up until I can fund my account with a real roll later on.

Colts

Lions

Redskins

Seahawks

Bills

[sweep]

Just entered a $15 tourny on Stars....$2k gtd. 75 entrants paying top 12

[sinmiedo]

what cash limits you play Sin?

it depednds. plo ,25/.50 nlh. 50/1 1./2 if i want more risk.2/4
i m most profitable in 1/2 nlh

[sweep]

it depednds. plo ,25/.50 nlh. 50/1 1./2 if i want more risk.2/4
i m most profitable in 1/2 nlh

I play 1/2 live when in brick & mortar room...have for years as a winning player overall. I find 1/2 online to be 10x more stressfull/aggressive.

.25/.50 my standard game online, .50/1.00 sometimes depending on availabilty. Jersey player pool is weak compared to rest of world.

Do you find online cash games play higher than b&m? .25/.50 online plays like 1/2 live to me...can easilly win a few hundo in a couple hr session.


Most of the time im 2 tabling also....

[sinmiedo]

i found 1/2 nlh in bodog play very predictable. i like it and enjoy it above all the other games.
i m also very profitable in live poker,and moving between 1\2 2/5 where again i play very profitable.
i think that the preasure makes me play at my best.
sin

[Ballerholic]

Sin- Why don't you build a roll so you can play consistent high stakes? You could make $5k+ a month easily playing part time if you are beating all of those games.


So unfortunately I ended up losing last night. I took the Timberwolves as well vs the Warriors and I played a little poker so that all helped. I also added $29 to my BR. Right now the BR stands at $61. All funds are currently in 888 so I'll combine these as both sports and poker rolls. 2NL was pretty B/E, but those games are such donkfests and only play at 50bb. At 5nl right now my winrate is ev6.68/100. 10nl shot coming soon enough! 11 more days!

[sweep]

Sin- Why don't you build a roll so you can play consistent high stakes? You could make $5k+ a month easily playing part time if you are beating all of those games.


So unfortunately I ended up losing last night. I took the Timberwolves as well vs the Warriors and I played a little poker so that all helped. I also added $29 to my BR. Right now the BR stands at $61. All funds are currently in 888 so I'll combine these as both sports and poker rolls. 2NL was pretty B/E, but those games are such donkfests and only play at 50bb. At 5nl right now my winrate is ev6.68/100. 10nl shot coming soon enough! 11 more days!

keep grinding man

[sinmiedo]

i found 1/2 nlh in bodog play very predictable. i like it and enjoy it above all the other games.
i m also very profitable in live poker,and moving between 1\2 2/5 where again i play very profitable.
i think that the preasure makes me play at my best.
sin

you are rigth, but i have 2 br online 2700 live 9500

i can take it.
sin

[Ballerholic]

Thanks sweep you too man!

Sin- you ever consider going full time poker pro?


So I'm taking Kings -8.5 and Blazers +10.5. The Kings lost by 10 to the Lakers at home earlier this season after entering the 4th up 3 points. Now they give 7 points to the Lakers at home again, but when we find out D. Russell and Nick Young are playing the line moves to -8.5. My first thought was pound the lakers, but I swear this game is going to be a trap. As for the Blazers game, the Blazers have lost 2 games so far this season to the clips, and were beat for their worst loss so far by 31 points. This is the last game against the Clips so I expect a decent game out of them. I'll also be taking Thunder tomorrow ATS.

[sinmiedo]

what defines a professional poker player?
wins?
losses?
time spend?
bamk roll management?
reading abilities?
personality categorization at the table ?
shark identification?
table selection?
i do have many of the above,and i still would never be a pro.
sin

Sin- you ever consider going full time poker pro?


So I'm taking Kings -8.5 and Blazers +10.5. The Kings lost by 10 to the Lakers at home earlier this season after entering the 4th up 3 points. Now they give 7 points to the Lakers at home again, but when we find out D. Russell and Nick Young are playing the line moves to -8.5. My first thought was pound the lakers, but I swear this game is going to be a trap. As for the Blazers game, the Blazers have lost 2 games so far this season to the clips, and were beat for their worst loss so far by 31 points. This is the last game against the Clips so I expect a decent game out of them. I'll also be taking Thunder tomorrow ATS.[/QUOTE]

[Ballerholic]

So after some good game selections and solid poker play the BR now sits at $73. 5NL has been so much easier to play than 2nl 50bb stacks. Anyway, I've done very well at 10nl in the past so I can't wait to take a shot there with this BR soon. I'm thinking I might take a shot at hit once I hit $80. The smarter approach is to wait until $100 has been hit, but I'm on a time constraint here. We'll see! A few plays for tonight so far. I might take a Westbrook prop as well.

Thunder -1.5

A. Davis over 30 points vs GSW

[Ballerholic]

So dud on last night's games. I made some of it back playing poker so the BR now sits at $66. ev17bb/100 so far at 5nl over a 1.7k hand sample though. If I had to estimate I'd say I could beat these games at around 7bb/100 longterm. It's funny most people choose to play pokerstars, but 888 and other sites are so much softer. I do agree the software and extras suck though. I find 888 5nl has some very nitty/passive/fishy opponents, while 10nl is more crazy maniac fish. I way prefer the 10nl games as I prefer bluff catching. Another great thing is that no Huds are allowed, so 3betting can be insanely profitable if done at a high clip. Anyway, I've got 2 more exams tomorrow morning and then I'm planning on grinding at least 40 hours over the next week. My realistic goal is to get this BR to $200 before I leave to go back to the U.S. upon which I might move funds to Ignition Poker for a bit. Reach goal is $300. Let's goooo!!!!! Possible plays coming later, we'll see...

[Ballerholic]

Thanks sweep much appreciated!

Anyway guys, what a brutal night on the felt. It's been crazy the past week. 6 exams over 5 days with an average of 4 hours of sleep a night. Yesterday I had 2 exams back2back to finish the semester. Now yesterday I lost 2BIs which isn't much, but I ran pretty bad and probably didn't play A game. I ran KK into AA and AA twice into sets. So I did end up getting my roll back down to -2BIs. Luckily I hit seahawks/rams under and pelicans to basically break even on the night. I feel fresh today and I plan to play at least 5 hours. So BR is at around $65.

[sweep]

found a nice berry patch this morning .25/.50.....picked up $238 in a lil over 2hrs. Then I started drinking and have now stacked off $400+

what a waste

[Ballerholic]

sweep- lol man, at least you only lost $162 for the day right?


So BR has significantly increased. BR has sky rocketed to $89 after receiving some RB, hitting Lakers over 76ers yesterday and making $7 off the tables. Very close to taking a 10nl shot. I'll start with some 5nl right now and if it is going well I'll hit some 10nl later today. Very exciting stuff! Let's F*cking Gooooooo!!!!

[Ballerholic]

taking a few games for today.


NCAAF Houston

NCAAB Notre Dame

NCAAB Indiana

I'll probably take a few games later as well. Looking at UNC and the Charlotte Bobcats.

[sweep]

sweep- lol man, at least you only lost $162 for the day right?


So BR has significantly increased. BR has sky rocketed to $89 after receiving some RB, hitting Lakers over 76ers yesterday and making $7 off the tables. Very close to taking a 10nl shot. I'll start with some 5nl right now and if it is going well I'll hit some 10nl later today. Very exciting stuff! Let's F*cking Gooooooo!!!!

ended up losing about 600 yesterday after being up 230 so 800 swing once i started boozing.....major problem of mine on the weekends.

Booze and gambling dont mix.....that being said im about 4 beers deep and up $48 so far tonight

[Ballerholic]

lol damn sweep, well as long as you're having fun what's the issue?


So I have some mixed feelings about yesterday. I started taking my 10nl shot and everything went amazing. I made around 6 BI's, but then I also lost $30 in sports betting going 0-6. I mean wtf. So bankroll is at $117 which leaves around $80 left until we hit the goal of $200. I think this will definitely be achievable. I might even try some tournaments today and see how those go. Anyway, we are still technically in the shot taking stage of 10nl. I'll need $200 to be comfortable bankroll wise at least. The main goal is to hit $200 by the end of Thursday, but my personal goal will be to hit $200 by the end of Monday. Let's gooooo!!!!

Graph so far of this challenge: