Originally Posted by
stevenash
*Disclaimer*
The numbers I'm about to used aren't precise, they're very close to accurate but I rounded them off for discussion purposes.
Hyperbole: Making slight adjustments in facts to make a point.
To date, Oakland has played 62 games, and have exactly 100 games on the schedule left to be played, or in other words 60 percent of the season remaining. (62 percent to be precise)
Oakland in those 62 games have won 12 of them and lost 50.
They have lost four out of every five games they've played to date, 80 percent. ( 81.5% to be precise)
As we like to say in my profession, "Let's do the math"
80 percent of all the games Oakland has played this season to date , they have lost.
-400 money implies 80 percent, 4:1 or in other words, four out of every five.
That's the break even number, -400.
(and if you're into sports wagering, or playing the stock market and you're objective is to turn a profit, breaking even is waste of time if you get right down to it, you're showing nothing gained on the time and energy you're putting in)
Betting chalk,on a long term consistent basis, will eventually destroy your bankroll.
If you lay -400 on three individual game across three consecutive days and God forbid all three bets go south, you're out 1200 if you're fading Oakland to win 100.
To recoup that loss, you're going to need to win you're next 12 consecutive games just to break even.
Good luck with all that.
(I'm just trying to make a point here is all)
Don't think my scenario I just layed oot can't happen?
The first two weeks of the MLB regular season two years ago, there were twelve game where the favorites were -240 or higher.
Nine of those twelve games the chalk lost.
If you're betting chalk like that on a regular basis, your bankroll is crippled, and you're pretty much out of the game by April 20th.
There are safer ways to wager chalk like that if you must bet on the heavy favorites.
I tend to stay clear of any event -160 or higher, but I will use a prohibitive favorite I like in a two event money line parlay with another favorite I like, reason being if things go wrong I'm out just one even money wager, I'm not out 280 dollars for example, just the 100 on the original bet.
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