[Goat Milk]

If you're betting on a spread before the game, you're likely losing a ton of value. Every single game, whether NBA or NFL, will have better odds in game at some point in the game. Today the clippers were -8.5. They were +400 to win the game with about 2 min left. If you wanted the Rockets, their ML was higher during the game as well. If you wanted the Packers last night at +10.5, you're getting more points during the game. If you wanted the bills -10.5, you're also getting more points at the right point in the game.

Denver was down to the Jags. Jags were down to Denver.
Bucs were down to the Ravens. Ravens were down to the Bucs at half.
Dolphins were down to the Lions. Lions were down to the Dolphins.
Panthers and Falcons were back and forth.
Jets and Pats were back and forth.
Colts and Commanders were back and forth.
49ers were down to the Rams. Rams were down the 49ers.

It happens in nearly every single game. Why bet on a -110 spread or a ML pre game, unless you're doing a parlay? I don't get the point.

If you want to bet on a player prop, so and so to get so many yards, you think that player is going to explode, you can get alternate prop lines. You like Henry to dominate Houston (3 straight 200 yard games against Houston prior to last week, where he had 200 for the 4th time in a row against them), you can get over 150 yards for high + odds.

Sports betting is very much like the stock market, you gotta time things right. Get in at the right time. Even if you lose some doing this, you're eventually going to hit if you know what your doing.

Not everyone has the time to do this obviously, so it's hard for all of us I'm sure to do it consistently, but now with the new apps and betting on phones, it's become much easier. Out to dinner with the family/gf? Np. Whip out the phone real quick and place a live bet within seconds.

[jjgold]

Goater excellent points
-110 not beatable

[Thrilla]

Goater a legend

[pologq]

good post

[Snowball]

true for all pro regular season sports
which is the bulk of the card
college and playoffs not so sure.

[gauchojake]

Some people don't have time to sit and watch live lines. Also nothing is stopping you from taking a position pregame and adjusting your exposure along the way.

[mackave]

MSU spartans i’m basketball used to always be -3 to around -7 against teams they weren’t gonna blow out, and they would always be down early. Grabbed their ML for + odds or around -110 every single game and cashed in massive

[d2bets]

If you're betting on a spread before the game, you're likely losing a ton of value. Every single game, whether NBA or NFL, will have better odds in game at some point in the game. Today the clippers were -8.5. They were +400 to win the game with about 2 min left. If you wanted the Rockets, their ML was higher during the game as well. If you wanted the Packers last night at +10.5, you're getting more points during the game. If you wanted the bills -10.5, you're also getting more points at the right point in the game.

Denver was down to the Jags. Jags were down to Denver.
Bucs were down to the Ravens. Ravens were down to the Bucs at half.
Dolphins were down to the Lions. Lions were down to the Dolphins.
Panthers and Falcons were back and forth.
Jets and Pats were back and forth.
Colts and Commanders were back and forth.
49ers were down to the Rams. Rams were down the 49ers.

It happens in nearly every single game. Why bet on a -110 spread or a ML pre game, unless you're doing a parlay? I don't get the point.

If you want to bet on a player prop, so and so to get so many yards, you think that player is going to explode, you can get alternate prop lines. You like Henry to dominate Houston (3 straight 200 yard games against Houston prior to last week, where he had 200 for the 4th time in a row against them), you can get over 150 yards for high + odds.

Sports betting is very much like the stock market, you gotta time things right. Get in at the right time. Even if you lose some doing this, you're eventually going to hit if you know what your doing.

Not everyone has the time to do this obviously, so it's hard for all of us I'm sure to do it consistently, but now with the new apps and betting on phones, it's become much easier. Out to dinner with the family/gf? Np. Whip out the phone real quick and place a live bet within seconds.

Your general point is good, but that's an exaggeration. Sometimes there are games that start one way and never look back. And missing that one game that you would have bet could cost. But yeah, it's like timing the stock market. A thing of beauty if you do it right.

I've been pounding the table for a long time that live betting is the most profitable market available if you do it right.

[lakerboy]

Good points.

As long as you know which way the market was headed pregame.

Sac kings great example last night. They were obviously going to win the game and I was getting +160 to +200 ml for so long last night and even late in the game when it was clear they were in control.

Live totals in soccer late in games are a goldmine.

[Nate rasta]

Work sometimes but if you like a team at-3 and then they get off to a 10-point lead then you lost your chance

[Crusherrr]

Vig too big for in-play/live. Also- there is edge to be had pre-game and in-game, so as long as you are taking +EV opportunities, it doesn't really matter if it's before or after a game starts.

[d2bets]

Vig too big for in-play/live. Also- there is edge to be had pre-game and in-game, so as long as you are taking +EV opportunities, it doesn't really matter if it's before or after a game starts.

Sentence 1 doesn't doesn't jive with sentences 2 and 3. If there is an edge (there is) then why would you say that the vig is "too big"?

Yes, at a single given book, the juice is higher live than pregame. But that's much too narrow a view. And the reason it's higher is because there is more value to be derived.

[Crusherrr]

Sentence 1 doesn't doesn't jive with sentences 2 and 3. If there is an edge (there is) then why would you say that the vig is "too big"?

Yes, at a single given book, the juice is higher live than pregame. But that's much too narrow a view. And the reason it's higher is because there is more value to be derived.

I don't bet live almost ever. Usually limits are a lot lower, lines move too quick, it's like trading and I'm not interested in doing that while a game is going.

Books are nowhere near as efficient in live markets as they are pre-game which is why the vig is what it is. I think a lot of the edge that you may find in live markets gets eaten up by how wide they price everything. Just my personal opinion. To be effective with it you also will probably end up having many bets at different price points and also betting both sides which books do not like at all. So you'd need to be actively doing it by scraping odds or using a service with live odds and many times by the time you want to get that bet in- it's too late. Major headache.

[d2bets]

I don't bet live almost ever. Usually limits are a lot lower, lines move too quick, it's like trading and I'm not interested in doing that while a game is going.

Books are nowhere near as efficient in live markets as they are pre-game which is why the vig is what it is. I think a lot of the edge that you may find in live markets gets eaten up by how wide they price everything. Just my personal opinion. To be effective with it you also will probably end up having many bets at different price points and also betting both sides which books do not like at all. So you'd need to be actively doing it by scraping odds or using a service with live odds and many times by the time you want to get that bet in- it's too late. Major headache.

Exactly.

It is a lot like trading. Not for everyone. It's time-intensive, challenging, and you have to be willing to absorb some risks.

Pre-game can be time intensive too. It can also easily turn on you while you blink or take a pee. Personally I mostly prefer the finite timeframe for the live trading.

Limits tend to be lower, but as long as you understand the parameters, you can make it work.

[KVB]

-110 is unbeatable, so let's do -115 or -120 LIVE.

GOAT telling stories after the fact, with 20/20 vision.

Again.

LMAO

[KVB]

Ok, here's one.

If a team is a +7 point underdog pregame, when the score is 0-0, then that team goes down a TD. The LIVE line is now +10.5.

Is that +10.5 while trailing by 7 "better odds" than the +7 pregame?

Prove your answer and show your work.

[d2bets]

-110 is unbeatable, so let's do -115 or -120 LIVE.

GOAT telling stories after the fact, with 20/20 vision.

Again.

LMAO

If it's mispriced, it sure is.

I know you know this.

[d2bets]

Ok, here's one.

If a team is a +7 point underdog pregame, when the score is 0-0, then that team goes down a TD. The LIVE line is now +10.5.

Is that +10.5 while trailing by 7 "better odds" than the +7 pregame?

Prove your answer and show your work.

It depends. Do I need proof for that?

[stevenash]

I like the Goat Milk too in the morning on the cereal.
That's what I call starting the day off right.

Spot on post Goater.

I've been a confirmed spot play dog bettor for years, nobody can consistently flat bet pick games at -110 and turn a profit long term

If one is flatting 100 dollars a game to win 90 dollars on a regular basis (at -110) than one isn't smart enough to beat the games 54 percent of the time, and that's just to stay afloat.

The only documented chalk player that I know of, and I've read many of his writeups, that turns a long term profit laying the wood is "Dr. Chalk" Benjamin Lee Eckstein.

Benji and his buddy/partner 'Roxy' are both still in the game, alive and kicking, both in their seventies, to survive that long not pissing off the wise guys along the way is an accomplishment.

Even Eckstein will tell you even though he's mastered the fine art of laying the juice, he wouldn't recommend it as anyone's betting method/style.

[KVB]

If it's mispriced, it sure is.

I know you know this.

No, you are wrong here. We are talking about commission on spread, not the wrong spreads.

GOAT doesn't and never has known the difference.

[KVB]

It depends. Do I need proof for that?

Show your work.

[KVB]

I don't think a single poster in this thread even understands the question I posed.

Not one.

The only guy even close is Crusherrr.

Hopefully SBR proves me wrong here.

[stevenash]

-110 is unbeatable, so let's do -115 or -120 LIVE.



LMAO

That renowned attorney at law, Thom O. Rino Esq. used to tell me how good his prop betting was, I always scolded him, "you're laying -120 and -125 on most of those propositions, you need to be around 62 percent or better"

He used to say "I'm much better that 62 percent"

And I'd laugh, and laugh, and laugh.

In a bizarre way, I miss that jackass.

[d2bets]

No, you are wrong here. We are talking about commission on spread, not the wrong spreads.

GOAT doesn't and never has known the difference.

But the spread is almost always wrong live. I don't know if Goat can identify them or not, but that doesn't invalidate the post that live is the best way to profit.

[goduke]

Most people watch a game and get fooled based on the game flow and change which side they like or get afraid that they won’t get a good bet if they wait. I know you listed off examples but I could list off just as many examples where the “value” didn’t come through and you were better off picking pre game.
It’s all about where the skills for the bettor are

[Pigpen]

I don't think a single poster in this thread even understands the question I posed.

Not one.

The only guy even close is Crusherrr.

Hopefully SBR proves me wrong here.

This guy is a real sweetheart, the smartest guy in the room. Imagine working with or for this genius.

[Thrilla]

-110 is unbeatable, so let's do -115 or -120 LIVE.

GOAT telling stories after the fact, with 20/20 vision.

Again.

LMAO

You need to relax

[TheMoneyShot]

I get what GOAT is trying to say... but it's just like GauchoJake said above... we can't sit at a screen everyday... every minute for 3-5 straight hours while these games are going on.

Even if you were in front of the computer... you are still facing -115 odds LIVE... you have LIVE LIMITS.... it's not worth it....

Also... take last nights Cleveland Cincinnati game as a factor... If you waited for Cleveland to have BETTER ODDS... you were sort of screwed. Never happened. And if you kept punching Cincinnati as a DOG... you lost your A-HOLE.... too.

There's really NO EDGE anywhere... wager before the game starts... it's as simple as that.

Another example... before the game starts you can get -105 odds... 525/500

During the game... LIVE you might find a book that allows you up to 500 575/500

On a loss... you're losing 50 dollars more... 10 wagers... that's $500 dollar difference on losses... the sh## adds up.

[Thrilla]

Ok, here's one.

If a team is a +7 point underdog pregame, when the score is 0-0, then that team goes down a TD. The LIVE line is now +10.5.

Is that +10.5 while trailing by 7 "better odds" than the +7 pregame?

Prove your answer and show your work.

Take a chill pill guy

[Thrilla]

No, you are wrong here. We are talking about commission on spread, not the wrong spreads.

GOAT doesn't and never has known the difference.

What the..settle down man

[Thrilla]

Show your work.

OK that's enough

[goduke]

Ok, here's one.

If a team is a +7 point underdog pregame, when the score is 0-0, then that team goes down a TD. The LIVE line is now +10.5.

Is that +10.5 while trailing by 7 "better odds" than the +7 pregame?

Prove your answer and show your work.

No its not. Essentially you were given 7 points on a 0-0 game and you are only getting 3.5 points on a 7-0 game.

[d2bets]

No its not. Essentially you were given 7 points on a 0-0 game and you are only getting 3.5 points on a 7-0 game.

So then would you lay -13.5 after the TD?

[Pete0]

Agreed.

Ive been saying this be4.

Take the big dogs in weekends ML. especially prime time and college sports...hell, maybe dont even hedge.
if they r up first... wait to time it on th e other side with better odds ML for a guarantee hedge profit too

[goduke]

So then would you lay -13.5 after the TD?

No my point was in regards to his question.