[TommieGunshot]

Sports betting is very much like the stock market, you gotta time things right. Get in at the right time. Even if you lose some doing this, you're eventually going to hit if you know what your doing.

Historically, not timing the market in stocks and always getting only market value has been a winning bet and a way to earn money. A coin flip or dart throw is profitable. Do that betting on sports and it is virtually certain to lose. Doesn’t matter if it’s pregame or in-game. The probability and payouts need to beat the sportsbook vig. No other way around it.

[TommieGunshot]

Ok, here's one.

If a team is a +7 point underdog pregame, when the score is 0-0, then that team goes down a TD. The LIVE line is now +10.5.

Is that +10.5 while trailing by 7 "better odds" than the +7 pregame?

Prove your answer and show your work.

Yes, the 10.5 is much better, because in completely made up scenarios, I get to make up the details however I want and in this game the TD came with six minutes left in the fourth quarter.

[Thrilla]

KVB buried

[KVB]

Ok, here's one.

If a team is a +7 point underdog pregame, when the score is 0-0, then that team goes down a TD. The LIVE line is now +10.5.

Is that +10.5 while trailing by 7 "better odds" than the +7 pregame?

Prove your answer and show your work.

Anyone?

[KVB]

This guy is a real sweetheart, the smartest guy in the room. Imagine working with or for this genius.

Relax, I wasn't being condescending, I was stating a fact.

Crusherrr showed more in his post than others, even if what he said about edges and spreads is a matter of perspective. He made a good point about managing positions.

I was hopeful more of SBR would provide some input into what they think about LIVE trading.

I was hoping more posters chimed in to see if my questions was understood.

Sorry for being hopeful.

[KVB]

Historically, not timing the market in stocks and always getting only market value has been a winning bet and a way to earn money. A coin flip or dart throw is profitable. Do that betting on sports and it is virtually certain to lose. Doesn’t matter if it’s pregame or in-game. The probability and payouts need to beat the sportsbook vig. No other way around it.

This point often gets lost on the OP.

But that doesn't matter, that's not even the point. My point was that the OP tells stories, makes up lines he claims he won on, and does it repeatedly.

He was doing this in April while a few of us were claiming the numbers weren't right.

Goaters embellishments aren't my concern, the question was whether or not anyone understood the value calculation on the LIVE markets, when information is new and has changed, or do they just rely on the pregame "efficiency" to make a subjective decision.

That's why asked to show the work.

[KVB]

No its not. Essentially you were given 7 points on a 0-0 game and you are only getting 3.5 points on a 7-0 game.

Good start.

But don't you think there might be some details missing? One hint for the thread is the time left in the game and time expired in the game. What about yardage or even the nature of the 7-0 TD?

What if that TD was an opening possession INT returned? So the favored team now has a defensive touchdown start with almost no time expired.

There are mathematical formula that take much of this and more into account to help devise the live lines.

In both the Foster trading thread and a recent LAD suck a long playoff thread I highlight where value leaves the market and the market "sells" plays.

Often one side becomes mis priced and stays that way the whole game. Sure, some bettors felt they knew the result and ignored price, and even won money.

But we know that if you ignore prices (all spreads can be converted to prices) you will get shorted more often than not, because of the added vigorish.

Of course, you can make prices up, like GOAT does, then post about them after the fact. But that really doesn't do anyone any good.

[KVB]

Yes, the 10.5 is much better, because in completely made up scenarios, I get to make up the details however I want and in this game the TD came with six minutes left in the fourth quarter.

That was part of my point.

What other factors help you to decide?

Everyone talking about "the live number" but not showing in real knowledge on how to compare the value to judge the number. I'm not asking for anyone to reveal secrets, but just seeing if anyone even knew that the comparisons to pregame aren't always reliable.

[KVB]

You need to relax

Take a chill pill guy

KVB buried

Your a wierdo, maybe you just didn't see where I was going with it, how could you? It was a method of teaching, you know, to ask the students a question. This was an educational thread.

I forgive you, but you're still a wierdo.