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Youngkin v. McAuliffe - Pick and Write-Up
I hit my last political bet on Harris to be vice president at +150, I think there is value on Youngkin to win the governors race in Virgina at +150.
Risking 2 units to win 3
The New Jersey and Virginia governors races are both next week and both involve similar issues, but the races are shaping up very differently.
In Virginia the main issue is the education system and families, with the horrific rape case in Laudon county that was covered up by the school board and democratic leaders being a central issue.
In New Jersey Ciatterelli has been linked negatively to Trump because he attended the January 6th protest, and the New Jersey race is much more focused on Covid and Trump.
In Virginia the issue as I said is focused on social issues, with the education system being the center.
The party that loses the presidential election has always done well in the mid-term elections with almost no exception for over 40 years, when people are out of power they get angry and motivated, well those in power often get complacent.
Mcaullife is moderate corporate democrat who has no real appeal to progressive on the left. Progressives have generally been motivated by 3 issues, Trump, progressive policies, and progressive candidates.
Trump is not a big factor in the Virginia race, Youngkin has strong support from the Trump base, but he's also been able to distance himself from Trump to appeal to moderate and independents on issues like the vaccine and election integrity.
The Laudon country rape case has parents outraged and its the kind of issue the should lead moms and housewives, the key group Trump did very poorly with in 2016, to vote Republican. Garland calling parents terrorists also angered many even moderate and independent voters.
The right is fired up right now and Youngkin also has appealed effectively to both independent and moderate voters. Mcaullife has made repeated mistakes including saying parents have no place in their kids education.
The polls show this race essentially tied but the polls have always undercounted Republicans and Trump supporters as we saw in both 2016 and 2020, the energy is all the right at this time.
Republicans are motivated about the border, Afghanistan, culture issues, and the fact they aren't in power. Progressive have nothing to be motivated about now with the absurd and dumb so called infrastructure bill failing and Mcaullife not being a progressive himself.
Youngkin should get strong turnout with the base of the party but he should also do well with moderate republicans and independents because of the culture issues like critical race theory teaching in school and the Laudon county Rape and cover-up of the rape.
The right is much more motivated than the left right now, the left has nothing to motivated about in this race or nationally since Biden has been incompetent and unable to get most major progressive legislation passed.
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Originally Posted by Al Masters
