1. #1
    Jayvegas420
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    NHL is BACK!

    ....and I have your openning day winner right here.
    Every year I find that the skaters typically take longer to get back into form than the goalies. My bet tonight is the grand salami under, 30.5 (+105) [Bet365]I have also chosen five teams to win the Stanley Cup, Knights, Leafs, Penguins, Canadians, Capitals.

    Good luck with your bets tonight and enjoy the season of fellas!
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  2. #2
    KVB
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    Good Luck Jay. I'm running some NHL campaigns this year too.

    Let's track the salami in here. Where are you getting your lines?

    I suppose it doesn't matter, maybe we use BOL for here. You mind if we track it in here? I'll try to stay dedicated and hit it daily.

    I've always found good salami spots when we track. Not sure about first day though, we need a run of data first. I'll set up a sheet.

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  3. #3
    Jayvegas420
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    I think that's a great idea, why don't you post the betonline salami and I will post the Bet365 salami. I will definitely be taking the under this week.
    No Toews-Nylander in Cicago & No Kutch in TB should help the under along!
    Last edited by Jayvegas420; 01-13-21 at 01:23 PM.

  4. #4
    jjgold
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    Jay we look to you

  5. #5
    spider
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    ....and I have your openning day winner right here.
    Every year I find that the skaters typically take longer to get back into form than the goalies. My bet tonight is the grand salami under, 30.5 (+105) [Bet365]I have also chosen five teams to win the Stanley Cup, Knights, Leafs, Penguins, Canadians, Capitals.

    Good luck with your bets tonight and enjoy the season of fellas!
    Leafs, Canadiens, and Caps, --- no chance at all to win Cup.

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  6. #6
    Hman
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    Thanks & GL

  7. #7
    packerd_00
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    Not sure how my Hawks are going to play this season, lost are young corner stone Kirby Dach for the foreseeable future.

    Good luck with your plays this season.

  8. #8
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Jay...how good is your collection of old OPC hockey sets?

    One day, pal...we shall return to Circus Circus. And we will again clean out the dealer's bin of chips.

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  9. #9
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    I think that's a great idea, why don't you post the betonline salami and I will post the Bet365 salami. I will definitely be taking the under this week.
    No Toews-Nylander in Cicago & No Kutch in TB should help the under along!
    Right on, I'll track it all in a spreadsheet too, a few different ways. Right now here's the BOL line...

    93 Over Goals Ov 30 -120
    94 Under Goals Un 30 +100

    Main point here and biggest takeaway is that both houses show a favored 30.5 line.

    I think this is a good start, it already gives us something to work with.

    Now we need a result.

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  10. #10
    KVB
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    Here's another thing we are going to look at, I think.

    Here are BOL's actual Total lines. Not counting prices, we see 30.5 right now. We can work with the prices too, or just take note, but notice all the lines priced towards the UNDER, except the swing game.

    But BOL favors that OVER on the salami. Can you use the prices in the games to help figure the salami? Not really, but it can be one piece of the puzzle. Remember, what we're looking for are market extremes. One thing we're noting here is any line movements that will vary from the salami. We can use the actualy values of the points to determine what a better bet is, but those are trees.

    For now let's just watch the forest...

    BOL's game lines...

    7:00 PM 41 Pittsburgh Penguins Ov 6 114
    42 Philadelphia Flyers Un 6 -126
    7:00 PM 43 Montreal Canadiens Ov 6 104
    44 Toronto Maple Leafs Un 6 -115
    7:00 PM 45 Chicago Blackhawks Ov 6 109
    46 Tampa Bay Lightning Un 6 -120
    7:00 PM 49 St. Louis Blues Ov 6 -101
    50 Colorado Avalanche Un 6 -109
    10:00 PM 47 Vancouver Canucks Ov 6 -118
    48 Edmonton Oilers Un 6 107

    Total numbers are 30.5. We can approach this from so many different levels, or sophistication, and root out all kinds of shit.

    It usually takes about two weeks to get a good bet, but things are so much more volatile now we just might see things sooner.

    Let's do something special in here Jay, a real mic drop moment with the NHL Totals markets. I'm down for sharing.

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  11. #11
    pinnacle420
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    I’m not a hockey buff at all but betrivers offered a 25% increase on the first hockey bet of the year so I took

    3 team parlay
    pitt
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    Leafs

    it’s +831 from the normal +671 so Fuk it!!! Let it ride!! Lotto ticket time

  12. #12
    Jayvegas420
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    GL Pinny!
    Last edited by Jayvegas420; 01-14-21 at 12:19 PM.

  13. #13
    Jayvegas420
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    Quote Originally Posted by spider View Post
    Leafs, Canadiens, and Caps, --- no chance at all to win Cup.
    Toronto is only the largest favourite to win their division.
    I agree Caps (+1800) & Habs (+2000) are gonna be tough to cheer for.

  14. #14
    Jayvegas420
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    9 goals in the 1st game.

  15. #15
    manny24
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Jay we look to you
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  16. #16
    Otters27
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    Damn missed out on the Lightning

  17. #17
    jjgold
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    Jay Dont blow your bank roll in week one like you did last year

  18. #18
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by manny24 View Post

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  19. #19
    mackave
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    leafs +330 live, love it

  20. #20
    KnuckleHeadz
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    This shit most likely dead before the two late games

  21. #21
    swordsandtequila
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    ....and I have your openning day winner right here.
    Every year I find that the skaters typically take longer to get back into form than the goalies. My bet tonight is the grand salami under, 30.5 (+105) [Bet365]I have also chosen five teams to win the Stanley Cup, Knights, Leafs, Penguins, Canadians, Capitals.

    Good luck with your bets tonight and enjoy the season of fellas!




    Just fukn' with you Jay. Good luck from Hockeytown South

  22. #22
    KnuckleHeadz
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    Howd the Canadian do?

  23. #23
    Jayvegas420
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    0-4 Knuckles.
    how much air did you rollover today?
    i could just past-post my wins for the past 2 weeks like you have but, I'll just own these loses & come back stonger today
    GL today, pal!
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  24. #24
    KnuckleHeadz
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    0-4 Knuckles.
    how much air did you rollover today?
    i could just past-post my wins for the past 2 weeks like you have but, I'll just own these loses & come back stonger today
    GL today, pal!
    First up today, Ill follow Pinnacle parlay and add UCF to my open once my local post the ML... good luck on all those hockey games today.

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    Description PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
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  25. #25
    swordsandtequila
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    Disregard

  26. #26
    Jayvegas420
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    thanks for posting your soccer picks in an NHL Grand salami thread. You definately have a clue how things work around here

    aaaaaanywaaaaaay...


    any thoughts on the salami today?

  27. #27
    jjgold
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    Jay wait 5 games and then start

  28. #28
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    Jay
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  29. #29
    Jayvegas420
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    Today's Grand Salami prediction
    Under 59.5 +105 [Bet365]

  30. #30
    KVB
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    BOL Dealing a salami of 59.5 juiced on the OVER again...

    7:05 PM 97 Over Goals Ov 59 -130
    98 Under Goals Un 59 110

    At the same time they are dealing a total of 57 when you add the games together with VAN/EDM having a -133 on the OVER 6 and NY game with -123 on the OVER 5.5.

    51 Boston Bruins Ov 5 -103
    52 New Jersey Devils Un 5 -107
    53 Washington Capitals Ov 6 106
    54 Buffalo Sabres Un 6 -117
    55 New York Islanders Ov 5 -123
    56 New York Rangers Un 5 112
    59 Carolina Hurricanes Ov 6 110
    60 Detroit Red Wings Un 6 -121
    61 Calgary Flames Ov 5 -109
    62 Winnipeg Jets Un 5 -101
    63 Columbus Blue Jackets Ov 5 101
    64 Nashville Predators Un 5 -111
    65 San Jose Sharks Ov 5 106
    66 Arizona Coyotes Un 5 -117
    67 Vancouver Canucks Ov 6 -133
    68 Edmonton Oilers Un 6 121
    69 Minnesota Wild Ov 5 102
    70 Los Angeles Kings Un 5 -113
    71 Anaheim Ducks Ov 6 100
    72 Vegas Golden Knights Un 6 -110


    The rest are priced towards the UNDERS. They're encouraging OVER bets on most games, but not exactly pushing the OVER in the Salami.

    It's clear that bet by bet it's business as usual but in a game like Vancouver and Edmonton, the wheels can come off and the Salami is accounting for that. Don't forget it's a rematch tonight.

    We can make charts to see which teams are being under or overestimated in the market buy using the average scores compared to the spread. At that point though, we really do need to convert half points because some of these -130's should probably be adjusted a half point.

    It's only day 2 so I'm not sure what all to bring into the thread. One thing I am tracking is the movement as well. Essentially, day one beat the 30.5 line by 6.5 points and the result was in the direction of the price shift from -120 to -125.

    I suspect OVER bettors will win more than lose in the near term until the bottom falls out. The propensity for 9 goal games will raise the medians of scoring and that will affect most days of the salami. We're already starting the year off with high scores, despite OVERS only going 3-2 yesterday. One of those UNDERs was a 6 point game with a 6.5 (-128) in TB. Context matters when they are using the price of a half point to drive money and bets.

    The effects on the salami are already showing, in day 2. These back to back rematches are also showing an effect, already.

    At this point we just need some games under our belts to digest how precise the market has been on the actual scoring in the league. Otherwise that's all the info worth putting in a post before we even have two games.

    As far as betting analysis, I have to think already sticking that Salami at 59.5, an adjustment of about 2 goals, is too much and an overreaction to yesterday. But scores aren't likely to reverse themselves suddenly, at least not yet, so I have to lean on the OVER 59.5 (-130), a bet I would not make on day two though.

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  31. #31
    jjgold
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    I need winners

  32. #32
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    I need winners
    Patience Gold. It's day two.

    Jay taking the +105 side again isn't a bad way to go. The two goals and price is a pretty big adjustment but I'm waiting to see if we are in that pattern of high scoring that we've seen across a few sports recently, including NHL.

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  33. #33
    KVB
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    Some new information, BOL moved from -130 to -135 on the OVER...

    97 Ov 59 -135
    98 Un 59 +115

    In my experience I just can't buy the OVER here.

    It feels like too much. This is a market of give and take.

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  34. #34
    clockwise1965
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    NHL has free preview on NHL center ice
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  35. #35
    Jayvegas420
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    The over moved to -140 at 365 but the numer is the same

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