1. #36
    jjgold
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    This thread might be a NHL gold mine

    Stay tuned to JAY VEGAS

  2. #37
    Jayvegas420
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    33 goals with 4 games remaining but, probably a voided bet with the Dallas/Florida postponment

  3. #38
    jjgold
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    Jay i need a winner in the nhl tonight

  4. #39
    Jayvegas420
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    Sens +180

  5. #40
    KVB
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    I think we're getting somewhere here.

    Yesterday was another OVER, paying -130 at BOL. That price will go down as not moving yesterday from open to close at -130 because even though it bumped to -135, it quickly came back down. I may need to add a column for that mid day move that comes back as we are sure to see it again.

    BOL testing the waters again as the Over opened -120 and they dropped it to -115. Here's the open...

    7:05 PM 93 Over Goals Ov 31 -120 -115
    94 Under Goals Un 31 100 -105

    There can be streaks here but as OVER's hit the line will adjust for the limit bettors that are trying to cash an UNDER here. Yesterday with 10 games in action BOL, from what I can tell, had a broad limit on the Salami, affecting every account I know of, and today that limit is lifted.

    BOL is now one goal higher than the total of lines offered...
    1 Pittsburgh Penguins Ov 6 -105
    2 Philadelphia Flyers Un 6 -105
    5 Washington Capitals Ov 6 -105
    6 Buffalo Sabres Un 6 -105
    7 Chicago Blackhawks Ov 6 -121
    8 Tampa Bay Lightning Un 6 110
    9 Toronto Maple Leafs Ov 6 -114
    10 Ottawa Senators Un 6 103
    11 St. Louis Blues Ov 6 109
    12 Colorado Avalanche Un 6 -120


    Yesterday looked like we could bounce to the UNDER but it wasn't to be. Today BOL is not offering plus money on the UNDER, after seeing +105 and +110.

    Vancouver and Edmonton aren't on the card for the first time.

    I think we could finally be looking at an UNDER fort the salami here. Even money might be gone from BOL for good.

    Ottawa has not played a game yet, and that's a gap in information. We're really only one game into the season for most, and that's a gap in information. Looking at the forest, patience is to pass tonight and let the OVER streak play itself out, but as we look into the trees, we see tonight's card could easily be built on UNDERs.

    Not one of my forecasts for today's games breaks 6.2 total goals. The median score is 5.8 and I think both TOR/OTT and STL/COL could go UNDER despite the just over 6 point forecasts. We get 6.5 in Ottawa the extra point on the Salami.

    Looking across the market I see price moves that look like sharper trades to me, although my info is not as tight as MLB. When I add it all up, for preseason forecasts, that even money was looking good. Money is swayed a bit, last nights OVER was bailed out in the late games and I think the public buying OVER's across the board.

    What I initially thought could be a longer streak of Salami OVERs to set up the market, it looks to me like we are in the much more and more likely give and take type market early on.

    I'm taking the UNDER 31.5 for a fade the public Friday market read...

    15-Jan GS UNDER 31.5 (-105)

    Good Luck.


  6. #41
    Jayvegas420
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    Same odds at Bet365. I’m gonna keep pounding this under until it hits.
    pulling a page from thomorinos book and going 4u on this one!

  7. #42
    KVB
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    Some basic information to add to the picture. There have been 15 games this season.

    After going 3-2 in favor of the OVER on day one NHL went 6-4 in favor of the OVER on day two to bring it to 9-6 in favor of the OVER. OVER bettors are up nearly +3 units this year so far. While UNDER bettors are down about -3.5 units.

    To give an idea of just how much we can usefully breakdown the market here's a few items...

    These are goals and the lines across the league...

    HOME AWAY TOTAL TOTAL
    NUMBER
    Mean 3.27 3.27 6.53 5.90
    Median 3.00 3.00 7.00 6.00

    Now we really should normalize that TOTAL line as even though there have been just as many numbers above 6 as below, we have to account for the -130's at some point.

    Here's the league relative to the line. In those games that go OVER, they do it by an average of 2 points, with a median of 1.5. You can see the same for those games that have gone UNDER...

    OVER UNDER
    Mean 2 1.42
    Median 1.5 1.25

    We can do all of this for the league, the new divisions for this year, and especially the teams.

    This is just some information to help us compare teams, games, and lines to the league and market. When we find days that are broadly overestimating one side or the other, the we look to the GS for a bet. But the GS is an animal itself, which is why we're tracking it here.

    Each day I'll add more layers, like where the money is falling, some history and some context to these numbers to see if we can catch hockey in a extreme.

    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Jayvegas420

  8. #43
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    Same odds at Bet365. I’m gonna keep pounding this under until it hits.
    pulling a page from thomorinos book and going 4u on this one!
    I like it. Bottom line, if we don't hit it's a shakeout right off the bat, something we should be able to recover from.


  9. #44
    beavis13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    Sens +180
    Looking at the under 6 1/2 in this one. Any thoughts Jay?

  10. #45
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    33 goals with 4 games remaining but, probably a voided bet with the Dallas/Florida postponment
    The salami didn't count the postponed game. We had 10 games on the 59.5 line.

    Yet another way to look at it.

    After 2 days, the actual scores are 4 goals higher per day which is 1.5 goals above the standard deviation (only two days but the structure is set)...

    Date # Games Salami Per Game Actual Average Std STD
    Line Mean Goals Difference Dev Difference
    13-Jan 5 30.5 6.1 37 6.5 0
    14-Jan 10 59.5 5.95 61 1.5 2.5 1.5
    Tot/Avg: 15 90 6.0 98 4.0 2.5 1.5

    Now we can keep a running graph of means, medians, and the std diff for just the BOL Salami.

    So, through 15 games the Salami has "predicted" 90 goals, an average of 6 goals per game. But we already showed that the league is scoring 6.53 goals per game (both posted above and derived from this post's chart of 98 goals/15 games).

    As time goes on of course the teams playing will matter but as far as the forest, it's no wonder todays line in that chart anticipates a season high 6.3 goals per game...

    15-Jan 5 31.5 6.3

    As we get more days and more games, this info can be even more useful than explaining the current lines.

    Not only that, but the pricing is getting back to that -130 to -135 range...

    BOL now...

    7:05 PM 93 Over Goals Ov 31 -131
    94 Under Goals Un 31 111


  11. #46
    jjgold
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    Jay my eye on you

    kvb always has something

  12. #47
    Jayvegas420
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    Quote Originally Posted by beavis13 View Post
    Looking at the under 6 1/2 in this one. Any thoughts Jay?
    If KBV's projected 6.5 comes though I'd kewan over.
    brady could go off tonight, id go over 3.5 shots & over 0.5 assists +140

  13. #48
    beavis13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    If KBV's projected 6.5 comes though I'd kewan over.
    brady could go off tonight, id go over 3.5 shots & over 0.5 assists +140
    Thanks. Decided to pass.

  14. #49
    Jayvegas420
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    6 goals in the 1st two periods...one by Brady Tkachuck!
    Last edited by Jayvegas420; 01-15-21 at 08:56 PM.

  15. #50
    HockeyRocks
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    Happy HK's back...

  16. #51
    jjgold
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    Jay knows hockey

    Born with a stick in his hand

  17. #52
    Jayvegas420
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    If KBV's projected 6.5 comes though I'd kewan over.
    brady could go off tonight, id go over 3.5 shots & over 0.5 assists +140
    We kewanned the over & Tkachuck had 5 SOG & an asst.

  18. #53
    Jayvegas420
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    Still can’t seem to nail the GS under.

    8 units ready to be locked and loaded.

  19. #54
    KVB
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    I totally fukked up here. I had UNDER 59.5 yesterday but bought it right before games went off.

    Not only was the 59.5 line being repeated, but so was the price.

    I fukked up not writing about it yesterday. That is my bad.


  20. #55
    KnuckleHeadz
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    I totally fukked up here. I had UNDER 59.5 yesterday but bought it right before games went off.

    Not only was the 59.5 line being repeated, but so was the price.

    I fukked up not writing about it yesterday. That is my bad.

    This becomes more and more like a Thermo thread each day...
    just missing prop bets and inaccurate record

  21. #56
    Jayvegas420
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    59.5 over -115

    trying the under again!

    Its all JJ's tonight...

    Jets & Jackets


    GL

  22. #57
    puckhandler
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    Jets are severely short handed tonight. 2 of their top 6 Defencemen are out tonight and Laine is questionable.

  23. #58
    Jayvegas420
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    I knew Laine was questionable, who are the two defensemen?

  24. #59
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KnuckleHeadz View Post
    This becomes more and more like a Thermo thread each day...
    just missing prop bets and inaccurate record

  25. #60
    Jayvegas420
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    Don't laugh Knuckles, 16 units on this under tonight and we are back to all square

  26. #61
    puckhandler
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    Demelo and Poolman are the defenceman out of the lineup.Logan Stanley making his NHL debut on defense. so a win is unlikely but the Jets seem to rally around these situations. I am a diehard Jets fan. I follow this team religously. not saying they can't win but they are without key pieces. I am still hopeful. Anderson has never lost in regulation to my Jets so maybe tonight is the night. I will be pulling for them. they also have the edge in net (Jets) gl
    Last edited by puckhandler; 01-18-21 at 03:57 PM.

  27. #62
    newton0038
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    The Martingale system gets u back to even at some point eh Jay

  28. #63
    Jayvegas420
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    We all know units are proportional oh, I forgot to tell everybody I was starting with 528 units

  29. #64
    Jayvegas420
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    Finally gonna hit one!
    ...only 22 goals with just one game left to face off.
    This one's a fellas, Newton was right...

    The Wink Martindale System never fails.

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