I agree with your system here on the Skins / Packers game. Packers are a clear square play this week. Redskins easily cover the spread on Sunday.
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12-03-19 08:25 PM #36
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12-03-19 08:37 PM #37
what are your picks though
Originally Posted by mgcolby
ill atleast give you credit if you take the most offby
you cant think your model if great if you dont have the biggest spread diffrentials
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12-03-19 08:39 PM #38
lions
broncos
redksins
if those win, gotta give you credit
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12-04-19 08:34 AM #39
Without being sarcastic and in the best peace mode I can come with, I don't think you quite get a couple of things. One I never said it was "great", I just said its a tool that I use, in fact I have said I don't always agree with it. Second, its large spreads are hitting at just above its overall record at 56% (10-8), and I probably should adjust my tracking sheet more granular at the higher differentials. In the past a double digit differential was a bit rare, at least as my memory serves which I why I left it at 8+. Seems, especially this year there has been some huge lines leading to some bigger differentials, and in some cases just such bad teams. Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger
I have posted its record at different spread differential points. I am as transparent as anyone I know of who posts a systems predictions & results that I have seen on the internet. I literally have its record broken down at a point by point spread differential and post it. In fact games that are between 3-4 points are doing terrible 29%. That is statistically way off from every other data point and the overall record.
At the end of the day, again I didn't say it was great. All I said is its better at picking every game ATS than most and most likely, any human would be. To be a winning gambler you have to win 52.6% of the time. After a terrible week its at 54%. I am not touting it, I am not selling it, I am not saying its anything special. It is what it is, no more no less. I thought some people on here may have a use for it. If you or anyone doubts it, than fine don't use it. I am not emotionally attached to it. All I am saying is, I input the stats, it spits out a score based on the teams performance over the past 4 games.
Lets take the Jets game from last week as an example of how to use this. It had the Jets winning big over the lowly Bengals....QB'd by Ryan Finley. It can't account for Andy Dalton suddenly reemerging healthy and playing well. It can't account for -25 in GB in late December playing a dome team...its a tool, not an end all be all...that wins more than it loses, at least at this point, which is something 99% of the gamblers can't say.Last edited by mgcolby; 12-04-19 at 08:39 AM.
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12-04-19 09:25 AM #40
Personally I like: Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger
Buffalo if the temp holds out or gets worse. Currently will be 37 with a real feel of 29. I think the Bills can steal one here in the cold weather with a few turnovers. So things being static or sliding in Buffalo's favor Temp wise. Buffalo +6
Seattle -1 / Jarred Goff....Russel Wilson...Like Seattle to go in and get the season split with LA here.
Bears +3 or the ML - As much as I don't trust Trubisky, I think the Bears defense is more than capable of shutting down the out of sync Dallas offense, I also think the team has mentally checked out. The owner doesn't have confidence in his coaching staff, which most likely the players don't either. I get they are still in the division hunt, but going on the road in the cold against a team with a winning record. Not a recipe for success for these Cowboys.
Just FYI, I am not going to continue to put my picks in this thread, its all about the picker. these are three of the games I like. And will most likely play.
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12-05-19 01:31 AM #41
Thank you for the feedback. I hope it works out. Originally Posted by Grosshhit
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12-08-19 06:45 PM #42
12-1-1 going into the SNF game...not a bad rebound to one of its worse weeks ever.
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12-09-19 08:20 AM #43
12-2-1 going into MNF. I will post week 15 after tonights game as soon as all the lines are out.
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12-09-19 06:04 PM #44
Originally Posted by mgcolby
you went 1-2 bro Originally Posted by mgcolby
12-1-1 going into the SNF game...not a bad rebound to one of its worse weeks ever.
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12-09-19 06:35 PM #45
On games he probably or actually wagered yes. Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger
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12-09-19 06:53 PM #46
lets go over facts here...top 10 Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk
1. he posts
2. guys say oh, thanks bro...thanks, thanks guy blah blah blah
3. he posts his plays
4. i say ok jets should be a play...
5. no jets arent a play even though they we were ranked highest
6. no he says, it has another factor
7. this week he has 3 plays and go 1-2
8. somehow hes 12-2-1
9. i win
10. i win again
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12-09-19 06:55 PM #47
im tired of winning all of these threads
finally someone will have a winning thread when i cuss them out
then everyone will try to laugh at me
not having it bro
these clowns are due to hit 1 thread
and SORRY, this one isnt it
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12-09-19 08:18 PM #48
It's two separate things. One is every game what his inputted numbers predict. That is the 12-2-1. He wrote he doesn't agree with it always. The three he wrote about have nothing to do with the printout it is his personal opinion and picks.
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12-09-19 09:20 PM #49
You won alright. I learned a very long time ago to never argue with an idiot...because he will bring you down to his level and beat you with experience... Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger
Congrats on your victory...now please just penetrate off...
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12-09-19 11:11 PM #50
Cut the fukkin’ bullshit lol, did you bet all those plays or not pal ? Originally Posted by mgcolby
You won alright. I learned a very long time ago to never argue with an idiot...because he will bring you down to his level and beat you with experience...
Congrats on your victory...now please just penetrate off...
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12-09-19 11:32 PM #51
I find it odd, maybe I shouldn't, but I do, that on a virtual space where communication is dependent upon the written word, that some folks can have such a deficiency in reading comprehension. Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk
As stated several times by myself as well as others, no I don't play every play every week. The entire point of this thread, and still is (also written in previous posts) was to put the pickers plays in here, not mine.
The idiot above can't seem to get that through his gray matter. The only person in this thread acting like an ass, and who needs to cut the shit, is the virtual stalker I have seemed to have picked up along the way.
He was the first to talk shit about it when it had a bad week and then the first when it had a great week. The guy clearly has issues.
If you have no use for a tool that has won at a 58% clip (after this week) over a 10 week period picking every NFL game ATS then so be it.
I've explained it enough. I may or may not to continue to post it, its not worth explaining repetitively.
Want to know anything else? It's probably already stated (maybe even more than once) in a previous post in this thread.
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12-10-19 07:25 AM #52
The idiot above ? I hope that is not in reference to me. I posted one thing in this thread prior to asking you if you bet on any of those 12-2-1. DO NOT get me mixed up with RudyRuetigger. All that I have gained here in this thread as you so eloquently explain into detail is that you have a successful model here that hits close to 60% on spreads & last week went 86% and you still FAIL to make money off this model you have created. Now to me it tells me you probably are a smart guy overall, but lack basic common sense & logic on how to pull a profit in this industry. Originally Posted by mgcolby
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12-10-19 07:55 AM #53
You specifically quoted me and no one else, that’s why I approach you with this question.
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12-10-19 09:18 AM #54
No, the idiot above was a reference to Rudy. And no I don't approach gambling as an "industry" nor do I always keep up with it every season, life gets in the way, I have a few partial only seasons over the past 10 years or so of having this. I do this for fun. I have two businesses that keep me plenty busy. I am a 100 dollar give or take bettor, in my winning years, I usually take 50% of the winnings and then wager the remaining 50% and use it on the SB. Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk
My biggest issue is not common sense and logic, its liking the action and not being disciplined. I have enough self-awareness to know this and keep this as a hobby. I put 3 picks in here as a "peace offering" to Rudy and in doing so stated that I do not want to mix my picks in with the system picks. This is a thread solely for those. In transparency I only bet 2 of the 3 games, the two losses. I attended a funeral Thursday morning for a very close friend and gambling was simply not on my mind that day.
Edit: I know sometimes its tough to determine tone in text. But in all honesty if you care to analyze its results and can come up with a formula that could consitantly win, I would be interested to see that. Feel free to post the thoughts/results. I started down that road with the tracking of wins/losses at each point level. The head scratcher is the 3+ differential record. Its at 25% which is so far off from the rest of the data points and the overall record.Last edited by mgcolby; 12-10-19 at 10:07 AM.
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12-10-19 09:21 AM #55
No worries, I don't come here to be an ass. I figured it may be a useful tool to some, maybe get constructive feedback. Not deal with a jackass that is infatuated with "winning" threads (whatever that means) on an anonymous message board. I understood the doubters when I posted its season record, which is why I linked to the fan forum I post on that has a history of its picks. Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk
Last edited by mgcolby; 12-10-19 at 09:44 AM.
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12-10-19 09:22 AM #56
An outstanding week for the Picker, I believe overall its best week it has had. If memory serves me correctly it went 13-3 one or two other times. Anyhow its 13-2-1 was not too shabby.
Week:
ATS: 13-2-1
SU: 14-2
Season:
ATS: 82-60-3 (58%) +16 units
SU: 86-59Game Predicted Score Predicted Spread Live Spread Spread Dif Actual Score ATS SU Cowboys 16.80 2.67 24 W W Bears 19.47 -2.67 2.5 5.17 31 Lions 23.36 4.40 14 9.60 7 W W Vikings 27.76 -4.40 20 Ravens 27.86 -10.26 -5.5 4.76 24 W W Bills 17.60 10.26 17 49ers 26.98 -5.22 3.5 8.72 48 W W Saints 21.76 5.22 46 Colts 20.31 2.41 3.5 1.09 35 W W Buccaneers 22.73 -2.41 38 Bengals 15.22 7.63 8 0.37 19 0 W Browns 22.86 -7.63 27 Broncos 23.60 -1.95 9.5 11.45 38 W W Texans 21.65 1.95 24 Redskins 23.61 -1.95 14 15.95 15 W L Packers 21.66 1.95 20 Panthers 17.91 8.61 20 W W Falcons 26.52 -8.61 -2.5 6.11 40 Dolphins 20.18 9.71 21 L W Jets 29.90 -9.71 -6 3.71 22 Chargers 24.59 -11.84 -3 8.84 45 W W Jaguars 12.75 11.84 10 Titans 27.23 -8.13 -2.5 5.63 42 W W Raiders 19.10 8.13 21 Chiefs 25.52 -6.25 3 9.25 23 W W Patriots 19.27 6.25 16 Steelers 23.66 -5.21 -2.5 2.71 23 W W Cardinals 18.44 5.21 17 Seahawks 23.68 -4.31 -2.5 1.81 12 L L Rams 19.37 4.31 28 Giants 19.52 1.69 8.5 6.81 17 W W Eagles 21.21 -1.69 23 Wins 13 14 Week W L W L P 3 under w 3 under L 3 Under P +3 W +3 L +3 P +4 W +4 L +4 P 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 8 7 0 5 4 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 6 10 4 10 3 1 5 2 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 7 7 7 7 7 0 4 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 8 8 7 7 8 0 3 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 9 8 6 6 8 0 4 3 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 10 5 8 8 5 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 11 11 3 9 5 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 12 9 5 8 5 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 13 7 9 6 10 0 2 5 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 14 14 2 13 2 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 15 16 17 Totals 86 59 82 60 3 35 26 1 2 6 0 6 6 0 WIN PCT 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.25 0.50 Week +5 W +5 L +5 P +6 W +6 L +6 P +7 W +7 L +7 P 8+ W 8+ L 8+ P 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 7 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 10 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 11 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 12 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 13 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 14 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 15 16 17 Totals 9 6 0 6 3 1 5 5 0 16 8 0 0.60 0.67 0.50 0.67 Last edited by mgcolby; 12-10-19 at 10:02 AM.
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12-10-19 09:45 AM #57
Will post week 15 once the Giants - Dolphins line is out on the site I use for the opening lines.
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12-10-19 09:49 AM #58
Nice week MGC... Keep posting.
Some people are going to complain no matter how good you do (and they become even wose when it goes bad).
To be honest, I don't straight up use this information for picks each week but I always use other peoples information to confirm or re-evaluate my seletions. The more information the better.
Appreciate your willingness to post picks and face the gauntlet that always comes with it.
Good luck.
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12-10-19 10:47 AM #59
No further explanation necessary, I appreciate the effort you have given to explain your situation. Keep posting your model & if I came off like an ass as well, I apologize. Originally Posted by mgcolby
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12-10-19 10:49 AM #60
I practice this way of handicapping as well. It's the best way to selectively grind out a profit in this thing we all do & love. Originally Posted by Tanko
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12-10-19 11:10 AM #61
Thanks and no worries. I don't mind bullshitting around etc...I don't mean to come off uptight, I definitely am not. Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk
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12-10-19 11:38 AM #62
We good. Originally Posted by mgcolby
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12-10-19 12:01 PM #63
Here is week 15:
This weeks eye openers:
Titans over the Texans...
Skins over the Eagles
Chargers over the Vikings
Not straight up, but taking the points with the Jets. The picker seems to be over valuing the Jets and undervaluing the Ravens based on the two teams recent competition. With that said, its still 15 points, which is probably within the true spectrum range.
Game Predicted Score Predicted Spread Live Spread Spread Dif Jets 17.18 6.41 15 8.59 Ravens 23.59 -6.41 Bears 19.77 0.88 5 4.12 Packers 20.66 -0.88 Patriots 17.02 -1.34 Bengals 15.69 1.34 10 8.66 Seahawks 26.93 -6.23 -5.5 0.73 Panthers 20.70 6.23 Dolphins 25.92 -0.14 3.5 3.64 Giants 25.78 0.14 Texans 22.90 11.94 Titans 34.83 -11.94 -3 8.94 Eagles 19.24 3.40 Redskins 22.64 -3.40 6 9.40 Broncos 23.82 4.93 12 7.07 Chiefs 28.75 -4.93 Buccaneers 27.12 -8.00 -3.5 4.50 Lions 19.12 8.00 Vikings 21.35 2.39 Chargers 23.75 -2.39 2.5 4.89 Jaguars 19.65 1.01 5.5 4.49 Raiders 20.66 -1.01 Browns 30.07 -9.74 -2 7.74 Cardinals 20.34 9.74 Falcons 23.92 4.97 11 6.03 49ers 28.89 -4.97 Rams 20.76 -3.32 3 6.32 Cowboys 17.44 3.32 Bills 19.37 -3.49 1.5 4.99 Steelers 15.88 3.49 Colts 28.26 4.93 8 3.07 Saints 33.19 -4.93 Last edited by mgcolby; 12-10-19 at 12:06 PM.
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12-10-19 12:46 PM #64
Appreciate the effort and posting this. Good luck
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12-10-19 01:59 PM #65
are you fukkin kidding me Originally Posted by Tanko
i thought you were better than this
something very odd with your account
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12-10-19 02:00 PM #66
im certain these guys are some of the scammers
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12-10-19 02:03 PM #67
As an analytical geek I applaud this thread.
Whoever said starting a thread is a prerequisite here though?
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12-10-19 02:04 PM #68
go look at the first fukkin page Originally Posted by stevenash
i said jets should be a massive, huge play
no it isnt a play even though it was his biggest difference
i know you are dumb nash, but really this dumb?
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12-10-19 02:05 PM #69
Look up one post... Originally Posted by stevenash
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12-10-19 02:07 PM #70
jets were a clear huge play last week
but no, he has other factors and they werent a playa (he lost)
so this week we follow his plays and they went 1-2
somehow you clowns think he bet the board
really no hope for you idiots
Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger
Originally Posted by mgcolby
You have issues. Taking shit on a message board as serious as you do. And no, you clearly didn't read what I wrote. I put the info in and this spits out the score based on the stats. I don't always agree with it. But I like the Bills and your Jets joke fell to the floor with a thud. And it is posted just not here, but I'm guessing this site is some sort of end all be all for you. The internet is solely here...
And I care are you saying I'm a noone? How ever will I make it through the day...
Now its posted
It is what it is! This is how it broke down week by week...
Week W L W L P 3 under w 3 under L 3 Under P +3 W +3 L +3 P +4 W +4 L +4 P 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 8 7 5 4 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 6 10 4 10 3 1 5 2 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 7 7 7 7 7 4 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 8 8 7 7 8 0 3 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 9 8 6 6 8 0 4 3 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 10 5 8 8 5 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 11 11 3 9 5 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 12 9 5 8 5 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 13 14 15 16 17 Totals 65 48 63 48 2 31 20 0 2 4 0 6 5 0 WIN PCT 0.58 0.57 0.61 0.33 0.55 Week +5 W +5 L +5 P +6 W +6 L +6 P +7 W +7 L +7 P 8+ W 8+ L 8+ P 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 7 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 10 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 11 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 12 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 13 14 15 16 17 Totals 7 5 0 4 3 1 4 4 0 8 6 0 0.58 0.57 0.50 0.57
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