[kingdom]

Might be gossip. He sure hasn’t looked right lately tho.

they sub him out on hail mary's. definitely not able to throw the deep ball. Carolina, much like the eagles did last night, bears did last week, and cowboys did to saints, cover with defense.

[2daBank]

It’s so cute when guys think a line moving one way or another determines the outcome of a game. Let’s dispel that myth and call it like it really is, the line moves because someone or someone’s are betting a lot more on that side, this is why lines move! Not because they got a call telling them who was gonna win!!!

If you don’t believe me, prove me wrong by starting a thread and showing me how you use solely line moves to cap outcomes of games and it any more effective than flipping a coin over 100’s of plays!! Im a open minded guy, change my view

[DJK]

Because a line moved from 6 to 7 means the saints will crush the Panthers? That's news to me. This ones pretty easy. Panthers at home in an absolute must win game. I'll go to pound town if it stretches to 7

At the moment, I can only guess that the books aren't sure what's going to happen themselves as the current odd varies from 6 to 6.5 with different juice. It's still too early, but if all books shade the line to 7 with the consensus higher juice on the same side (the Saints), then it's more than likely that the Saints will cover rather easily.

But if you feel that it's the must win game for the Panthers, then it's your money and you can take them for more if you like.

[albinoshark]

If the Panthers want to win they will have to score and keep up, not sure they can do that, they have always seemed to be a notch below with Olsen out. Before this weekend scrambling type QBs are 61-38 SU this year in the NFL so Cam has to somehow take over the game use up clock, shorten the game and avoid turnovers(the last few game Car has been terrible in this category) to have a chance at the end.

Agree here...Panthers love to Blitz. Plays into the hands of Brees. Panthers secondary is a train-wreck with lots of injuries. They will also will commit to having obv. extra pass rushers, but Brees has been stellar all season. Carolina is running the football well, but Saints have that great run D.

[DJK]

It’s so cute when guys think a line moving one way or another determines the outcome of a game. Let’s dispel that myth and call it like it really is, the line moves because someone or someone’s are betting a lot more on that side, this is why lines move! Not because they got a call telling them who was gonna win!!!

If you don’t believe me, prove me wrong by starting a thread and showing me how you use solely line moves to cap outcomes of games and it any more effective than flipping a coin over 100’s of plays!! Im a open minded guy, change my view

I have a great example for you.

On the OU vs Texas game for the Big 12 Championship game, I don't know exactly when but the line moved to OU -9.5 on all books simultaneously. It wasn't like what's happening with tonight's game where some books have -6.0 and some have -6.5 with varying juice.

It was a consensus move with ALL BOOKS at the SAME TIME, so there was no way in hell that everyone betting at all those different books decided to all bet on OU at the same time and triggered all books to move the line at the same time to the same exact spread.

It isn't just that game as it happens in other games as well if you watch the line movements all the time like I do. I do that so I can offset my bet if I feel that I'm on the wrong side of the funny consensus line moves.

On Philadelphia vs Los Angeles game last night, I swear the books intentionally move their lines the wrong way like what they did yesterday to scare the bettors into betting the wrong way as that line move didn't make any sense to me especially when all books had the line at -13.5 so I know they weren't reacting to what people were betting and adjusting their lines.

Anyway, OU covered that game in the end and I'm sure a lot of bettors lost on that game. It didn't affect me since I had Texas on a teaser and still won my teaser, but I swear I wanted to take OU straight up when I saw that consensus line move but I just couldn't do it because I felt it was too high.

[stevenash]

Carolina lost last 5 games, most of them were super close.
Same story as yesterday with the Rams. No clinched division, Car desperate and super strong at home. No brainer here.
Cheers.

I'm on the exact same bet.
BoL

[JIBBBY]

^^ Lightening doesn't strike twice in the same bottle in two nights.. Saints the better team..

[GT21Megatron]

It’s so cute when guys think a line moving one way or another determines the outcome of a game. Let’s dispel that myth and call it like it really is, the line moves because someone or someone’s are betting a lot more on that side, this is why lines move! Not because they got a call telling them who was gonna win!!!

If you don’t believe me, prove me wrong by starting a thread and showing me how you use solely line moves to cap outcomes of games and it any more effective than flipping a coin over 100’s of plays!! Im a open minded guy, change my view

This is the sharpest post I’ve seen in awhile. Following that line move on the Rams last night really worked out didn’t it??? Line went from Rams -9.5 to -13.5 and they lost outright

[DJK]

Even with all of the information that I'm sure the sports books have that we don't, I don't think they have any definitive clue as to what's going to happen with tonight's game.

I was in Sugar House this afternoon to hedge my ML parlay to take exactly 1/2 and 10 minutes or so that I was using my computer to calculate exactly what to bet to take 1/2 of my ML parlay payout, the moneyline on the Panthers went from +220 to +235 and it looked to me like the ML was going up at the time. That automatically netted me another $75 free money when I placed my hedge bet.

Now, the ML has gone down from what I can see, so it was a good thing I was there earlier today instead of waiting until this evening. It's still too early, but I translate cheap ML on the Saints as the Panthers covering and expensive ML on the Saints as them covering.

[DJK]

I just read the following on ESPN. That's like saying there's like 85% chance that the Panthers will cover the spread tonight.

Let's see how that works out.

You look at simply at the current teams and how they are doing, then the Saints crush the Panthers. You look at the stats, then it looks like the Panthers should cover.


Few fast facts for Panthers-Saints tonight at BkofAma Stadium: Panthers are 10-1 in their last 11 home games dating back to last season: they are 13-2 at home in December since drafting Cam Newton in 2011: Newton is 5-1 on Monday Night Football.

[HockeyRocks]

Living just north of Charlotte. Not many fans are encouraged about tonight.

It's to late this year, however, Cam must change his ways to go to the next level. His best days are behind him..His passing is poor and hasn't seemed able to correct the constant overthrows...He plays with no emotion just like Rivera. Emotionless teams in the NFL don't win on a consistent basis. You gotta get pumped up!!!!

Pass on the game

Play NO's o 13.5 -130 lst half...

[Pickem2win]

I teased the Panthers to +13 and the Titans to -3 (Saturday game). Carolina is very strong at home and most of their road losses have been close. If they lose by 14 or more at home on MNF then so be it

[Snowball]

I just read the following on ESPN. That's like saying there's like 85% chance that the Panthers will cover the spread tonight.

Let's see how that works out.

You look at simply at the current teams and how they are doing, then the Saints crush the Panthers. You look at the stats, then it looks like the Panthers should cover.


Few fast facts for Panthers-Saints tonight at BkofAma Stadium: Panthers are 10-1 in their last 11 home games dating back to last season: they are 13-2 at home in December since drafting Cam Newton in 2011: Newton is 5-1 on Monday Night Football.

Historical trends are NOT stats.

[GzaTheGenius]

teaser panthers and over

[GzaTheGenius]

panthers losses are vlose sure but to some pretty bad teams lol

[DJK]

Historical trends are NOT stats.

Yes, you are right. Trends are not stats. If trends always tell the story of what's going to happen next, then we would be all rich.

Just like how GB owned Chicago and they didn't cover this weekend.

[2daBank]

I have a great example for you.

On the OU vs Texas game for the Big 12 Championship game, I don't know exactly when but the line moved to OU -9.5 on all books simultaneously. It wasn't like what's happening with tonight's game where some books have -6.0 and some have -6.5 with varying juice.

It was a consensus move with ALL BOOKS at the SAME TIME, so there was no way in hell that everyone betting at all those different books decided to all bet on OU at the same time and triggered all books to move the line at the same time to the same exact spread.

It isn't just that game as it happens in other games as well if you watch the line movements all the time like I do. I do that so I can offset my bet if I feel that I'm on the wrong side of the funny consensus line moves.

On Philadelphia vs Los Angeles game last night, I swear the books intentionally move their lines the wrong way like what they did yesterday to scare the bettors into betting the wrong way as that line move didn't make any sense to me especially when all books had the line at -13.5 so I know they weren't reacting to what people were betting and adjusting their lines.

Anyway, OU covered that game in the end and I'm sure a lot of bettors lost on that game. It didn't affect me since I had Texas on a teaser and still won my teaser, but I swear I wanted to take OU straight up when I saw that consensus line move but I just couldn't do it because I felt it was too high.

I’m not disputing you could prob give me a 100 example bro, no doubt. Thing is you could be shown 100 where had same type moves and it lost. Way back when in a time long ago I knew guys that could have success like this but times have changed, shit that worked 15-20 years ago ain’t working the same still, if so every state wouldn’t be clamoring to be books!!! I saw lot of those guys start crashing and burning and so pissed off and confused, mad at books like something was wrong cause their tried and true beliefs had become extinct.. same thing happened to me w nfl unders a decade or so ago, used to get fat off identifying low scoring ass defensive games, then got my shit pushed in for bout a year and a half until I pulled head out my ass and adjusted my thinking as the script got flipped..

[DJK]

I’m not disputing you could prob give me a 100 example bro, no doubt. Thing is you could be shown 100 where had same type moves and it lost. Way back when in a time long ago I knew guys that could have success like this but times have changed, shit that worked 15-20 years ago ain’t working the same still, if so every state wouldn’t be clamoring to be books!!! I saw lot of those guys start crashing and burning and so pissed off and confused, mad at books like something was wrong cause their tried and true beliefs had become extinct.. same thing happened to me w nfl unders a decade or so ago, used to get fat off identifying low scoring ass defensive games, then got my shit pushed in for bout a year and a half until I pulled head out my ass and adjusted my thinking as the script got flipped..

I believe what you are saying. It's just that I don't rely solely on the line moves to make my bets.

I try to make my bets as earliest possible after reading up as much as I can and I hardly make any single pick bets, so the line moves do not really affect me that much.

It's just that once I have my bets (teasers and ML parlays) placed, I start to worry when the line is moving against what I picked. One good example this past weekend was Seattle vs San Francisco. I already picked Seattle in a teaser even though my head clearly said not to. I knew as soon as I placed my bet and saw the line dropping 2.5 to 3 points that I was in trouble with that teaser and I crossed it off as a loss even before the game was played and sure enough Seattle lost SU. What bothers me the most is that as much as my head told me to take the 49ers, my other head wouldn't let me. It really annoys me that I cannot get over this mental issue to follow my first thinking instead of over-riding it with some other reasoning which seems to be always wrong.

Anyway, what happens in tonight's game makes no difference to me as I already made 2.5K regardless who wins.

I've been watching the line moves all day long and I'm kinda surprised that I even got +235 ML on the Panthers at Sugar House as it's as low as +200/+205 now at some books.

If you are on the Panthers, then good luck to you.

[2daBank]

Don’t have a dime on this thing tonight, if I thought cam was healthy I would be all over the opportunity to get them twice in the next 3 weeks at these prices cause I have no doubt they would win 1.. I don’t think he healthy, but he such a inconsistent prick maybe he puts a good game together tonight so no interst in saints either.., too much guessing added to our normal amount of guessing makes banker run and hide gl to all

[leetreaper]

teaser panthers and over

I think teasing with Under is better.

[Renegades]

I’m not disputing you could prob give me a 100 example bro, no doubt. Thing is you could be shown 100 where had same type moves and it lost. Way back when in a time long ago I knew guys that could have success like this but times have changed, shit that worked 15-20 years ago ain’t working the same still, if so every state wouldn’t be clamoring to be books!!! I saw lot of those guys start crashing and burning and so pissed off and confused, mad at books like something was wrong cause their tried and true beliefs had become extinct.. same thing happened to me w nfl unders a decade or so ago, used to get fat off identifying low scoring ass defensive games, then got my shit pushed in for bout a year and a half until I pulled head out my ass and adjusted my thinking as the script got flipped..

I know what you are saying about totals. there was a 3-4 yr period in cfb where the totals were way too low. those big 12 games would be like 60-61 total and both teams would score 35+. why? they were running like 80 plays a game. oddsmakers were not adjusting enough for pace of play. some of these teams that run up tempo are not even that good but if you run 80+ plays you will get 400 yards of offense. exhibit A (Wake Forest) its changing now though. bunch of games in cfb with 75-80 pt totals. NFL as well. how many games every week have a total of 50+? a lot. those same games were 45-47 5-6 yrs ago. that being said, its very hard to bet under in today's football. the nfl is geared towards fantasy football. its their only connection with the younger generation. the casual fan scrolling on his phone to see how many pts he has in fantasy is who they after to keep engaged. the league is concerned with viewership going down.

[PAULYPOKER]

$$$ pretty much even on the ATS.......

NEW ORLEANS	CAROLINA

TIME	CURRENT LINE	PLACED WAGERS		AMOUNT WAGERED		CURRENT LINE	PLACED WAGERS		AMOUNT WAGERED
12/17 07:39 PM	-6 -105	43760	50.00%	$4,834,167	50.44%	+6 -105	43930	50.00%	$4,749,712	49.56%

Good Luck!!

[leetreaper]

I like what I'm seeing so far, every down counts.

[leetreaper]

[Renegades]

That was a phenomenal play call. Incredible play in that situation

[5mike5]

It’s so cute when guys think a line moving one way or another determines the outcome of a game. Let’s dispel that myth and call it like it really is, the line moves because someone or someone’s are betting a lot more on that side, this is why lines move! Not because they got a call telling them who was gonna win!!!

If you don’t believe me, prove me wrong by starting a thread and showing me how you use solely line moves to cap outcomes of games and it any more effective than flipping a coin over 100’s of plays!! Im a open minded guy, change my view

Exactly. Great post

[leetreaper]

I think teasing with Under is better.

[Frank Mills]

You must be kiddin'g me

[leetreaper]

Shouldve been up 2 scores lmao, 2 end zone turnovers

[KVB]

It’s so cute when guys think a line moving one way or another determines the outcome of a game. Let’s dispel that myth and call it like it really is, the line moves because someone or someone’s are betting a lot more on that side, this is why lines move! Not because they got a call telling them who was gonna win!!!

If you don’t believe me, prove me wrong by starting a thread and showing me how you use solely line moves to cap outcomes of games and it any more effective than flipping a coin over 100’s of plays!! Im a open minded guy, change my view

There was a time where just pure line analysis could produce winners. There were indications, no stats needed, with line moves, as well as non moves, that could be done as an entire subset that showed a positive EV for years.

We had a guy who just worked on that, that's all. He uncovered edges with it, solid ones.

This was a long time ago, things were easier in general back then.

[KVB]

This is the sharpest post I’ve seen in awhile. Following that line move on the Rams last night really worked out didn’t it??? Line went from Rams -9.5 to -13.5 and they lost outright

But what if the read is that a move like that indicates the underdog?

In that case it worked just fine.

You are making false assumptions that the move towards the team always points to the that team...this is wrong.

[leetreaper]

[mdunlap3]

Gotttemmmm. My line pretty close at 3.5 leet lolol.

[Da Manster!]

you broke even...you went 1 - 1...you won on the spread but lost on the ML

[pattymayo]

you broke even...you went 1 - 1...you won on the spread but lost on the ML

Breaking even is a win for leet... see Exhibit A:
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...nday-card.html