[KVB]

I would like to introduce the KVB Total Return Fund. This Fund is dedicated to aggressive returns keeping in mind the market risk at all times. I believe that it’s not what you make in the markets, it’s what you keep. As such, there will be downside protection in the form of diversification, short positions, and derivatives.

This fund will be invested in standard equities, ETF’s, bonds, derivatives, including options, as well as the sports and crypto currency markets. Some investments, like bonds and hard assets like real estate and precious metals, may come in the form of ETF’s or REIT’s. There will, at times, be leverage and investments in leveraged instruments.

This thread will show the positons in the fund and all trades that are made therein. This is a tracking thread.

Sportsbook money will be deducted from the available cash but while sportsbook funds remain idle they will be swept into the money market with the rest of the cash. While fees are low on this account, including many commission free trades through Schwab, the sportsbook money will get the benefit of a small money market rate (that will stay in the cash portion) but won’t be subject to any fees that would be associated with quick money moves to and from a book that would be necessary to trade this way. Instead of incurring fees to bet, the SportsBook Fund has its own holdings. In effect, a wager will be treated like an unsettled trade, using brief margin, before settling positive or negative for tracking purposes and interest earned will remain in cash. Each wager is 1%-2% of the starting bankroll, depending on the SportsBook Fund and strategy being employed.

I may set up a fee tracking column for this, but fees are pretty small here and the trades and plays are what’s important.

As many know, I have different trading strategies for sports and the SportsBook Blended fund in the Total Return Fund is a blend of strategies based on perceived long term value in multiple sports with some short term reactions based on market extremes. This fund will not include every play I make in sports and will not have many plays that counter forecasts, like I often post. The SportsBook fund will be managed by me. Other Sportsbook Funds, with different strategies managed by me, may be “purchased” for this account and any sportsbook strategic funds held will have the plays posted in this thread.

Positions for KVB Total Return Fund		As of 5/27/2018
Symbol	Description	Quantity	Price	Market Value	Cost Basis	Gain/Loss $	Gain/Loss %	% Of Account	Security Type
AMZN	AMAZO COMMON INC	4	$1,610.15	$6,440.60	$6,416.95	23.65	0.37%	7.67%	Equity
AAPL	APPLE INC	25	$188.58	$4,714.50	$4,711.70	2.80	0.06%	5.62%	Equity
LNG	CHENIERE ENERGY INC	100	$62.16	$6,216.00	$6,299.14	-83.14	-1.32%	7.41%	Equity
GME	GAMESTOP CORP NEW CLASS A	200	$12.67	$2,534.00	$2,537.95	-3.95	-0.16%	3.02%	Equity
GE	GENERAL ELECTRIC CO	200	$14.63	$2,926.00	$2,940.07	-14.07	-0.48%	3.49%	Equity
MSFT	MICROSOFT CORP DISCOUNT	50	$98.36	$4,918.00	$4,932.70	-14.70	-0.30%	5.86%	Equity
PFE	PFIZER INC	125	$35.68	$4,460.00	$4,479.95	-19.95	-0.45%	5.31%	Equity
PFFD	GLOBAL X US PREFERRED ETF	200	$24.21	$4,842.00	$4,840.00	2.00	0.04%	5.77%	ETFs & Closed End Funds
USRT	ISHARES CORE US REIT ETF	100	$46.77	$4,677.00	$4,667.95	9.05	0.19%	5.57%	ETFs & Closed End Funds
SCHZ	SCHWAB US AGGREGATE BOND ETF	100	$50.51	$5,051.00	$5,048.00	3.00	0.06%	6.02%	ETFs & Closed End Funds
MORT	VANECK VECTORS MTG REIT INCOME ETF	400	$23.38	$9,352.00	$9,352.95	-0.95	-0.01%	11.14%	ETFs & Closed End Funds
HYLB	XTRACKERS USD HIGH YIELD COR BND ETF	100	$49.40	$4,940.00	$4,937.00	3.00	0.06%	5.89%	ETFs & Closed End Funds
SBBV	SportsBook Blend Value	1	$5,000.00	$5,000.00	$5,000.00	0.00	0.00%	5.96%	Sports Wagering Funds
Cash & MMK				$22,860.34				27.24%	Cash and Money Market
Adjusted Cash				$17,860.34				21.28%
Account Total				$83,931.44	$66,164.36	-93.26	-0.14%

For the positons already in the fund, they were posted here with some thoughts. As you can see, this account has already evolved to become the KVB Total Return Fund…

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post27803145

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post27806175


Good Luck.

[KVB]

CELG

I think it was Motley Fool that brought CELG to my attention. A beat up pharma that should recover with solid cash flow from a drug for the next few years.

CELG is at $78 and I think that it will hit $96 or so then break out to about the mid $120's. The real buy point is around $96. I want to buy part of the position now to take advantage of the low price.

The problem and gamble is that it may not be ready to go to $96 yet and if there is a broader pullback this stock could fall. If this stock falls, I am having trouble identifying a support point.

Yikes. It probably won't fall far as I still think it will go to $96 and then to $124 or so.

So maybe I buy a partial position now, average down if it drops, or finish my position if it sets to break out. If it paid a dividend I wouldn't hesitate to take a whole position over a couple of days next week.

The stock is CELG and is $78.63 a share...

I just bought 35 shares of CELG at $79.01 per share to start this position.

Good Luck.

[grease lightnin]

~35% of that portfolio will struggle as interest rates go up. Are you predicting that interest rates will go down?

[KVB]

Expecting rates to rise and as they do the portfolio will make some changes. I went after some dividend returns initially but haven't put together the full strategy as rates move.

To be clear I do expect rates to rise and welcome any opinions as to what current holdings may do and how best to adjust the positions.

This is an evolving fund and is open to turnover...fees are cheap to none.

Also, I still don't have options approved on this Schwab account or I may have already done something.

What are some of you guys doing to prepare for the eventual rise in rates?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Giddyup. Good luck, K.

[grease lightnin]

Expecting rates to rise and as they do the portfolio will make some changes. I went after some dividend returns initially but haven't put together the full strategy as rates move.

To be clear I do expect rates to rise and welcome any opinions as to what current holdings may do and how best to adjust the positions.

This is an evolving fund and is open to turnover...fees are cheap to none.

Also, I still don't have options approved on this Schwab account or I may have already done something.

What are some of you guys doing to prepare for the eventual rise in rates?

Well you mentioned that your “fund” seeks aggressive returns, but income investments such as bonds, REITs, and preferred stocks will only appreciate in value during periods of declining interest rates. Otherwise, you would purchase them because you seek income. And you would do so with the understanding that your principal would likely depreciate in this environment. Really, the yield curve is pretty flat, so if you want income, I would just purchase individual bonds with ~2 years to maturity because right now you won’t get much reward to tie it up for longer. If you do use income funds in this environment, I would look for funds that aren’t benchmarked to the Barclays agg and have the flexibility to invest in multiple sectors and anywhere in the yield curve, and can use leverage.

[KVB]

I get what you're saying Grease.

The second part of that aggressive return was about keeping in mind the market risks. Rates aside, I have a higher allocation of fixed income because I know I bought at highs and anticipated a market pullback; again, interest rates aside.

But rising rates are a in the cards for sure and it would help to be ahead of the reactions.
Thanks for reminding me, I had another spreadsheet to start the thread with...

KVB Total Return Fund		As of 5/27/2018
			% Alloc	Totals	Cost Basis
	US Lrg Cap
		AMZN	7.67%		6416.95
		AAPL	5.62%		4711.70
		GE	3.49%		2940.07
		MSFT	5.86%		4932.70
		PFE	5.31%		4479.95
				27.95%
	Mid/Small/Int
		LNG	7.41%		6299.14
		GME	3.02%		2537.95
		MORT	11.14%		9352.95
		USRT	5.57%		4667.95
				27.14%
	Fixed Income
		PFFD	5.77%		4840.00
		SCHZ	6.02%		5048.00
		HYLB	5.89%		4937.00
				17.67%
	Sportsbook	SBBV	5.96%
				5.96%
	Adj Cash		21.28%
				21.28%

Here were the comments about it...

I recently shifted a significant amount of sports betting money and opened a new account just with that.

It’s meant to be aggressive with options being traded as well, particularly around these positions. For now, I looked for income, and allocated a bit for a pullback in the market, going long with the big guys as a base. I realize some of these are bought at highs, but the time frame for the long position is out there for now. I ignored some technicals and wouldn’t be surprised if the account value fell a bit. GME and GE are positions serving both as a dividend and a long position for option gambles, they are questionable as short term trades for sure.

The small and mid interest is a little high in allocation but MORT is income as well and LNG is being held a little higher for eventual leverage. I often have great probability indications on time frame and price movement for LNG.

The international interest is small with USRT.

I still don’t have options approved on this account, it’s a new account and I forgot to apply but it should happen anytime. As my trading desk ramps up this account will take a different form and will have a more trades.

This is not an investment account so much as it is a gambling account branching into the markets that will evolve over time. I may post other investment accounts with different objectives as I build new positions in them....

I realize there is some overlap and that the market cap is based on the fact that some are ETFs. Also, I wanted into real estate and these ETFs are commission free.

Already the account shifted from pure gambling to something a little more Total...lol. The goals have shifted and the account will undoubtedly shift to to reflect a more Total type strategy. Nebulous goals, or trying to do too many things with one account, are definitely a negative against me as a fund manager; but that can be remedied.

The plan was also to make it about sports funds and employing different strategies, or funds, at different times and posting about the strategies in play and their recent performance. Employing different strategies amounts to an attempt to defy the odds with a little edge.

It will be funny to see if the sports fund can grow to $6k, with $100 dollar bets, and then outperform everything as it's goes up 20%. Let's see if I can show sports to still be the better investment.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Hope you did your stretches first, KVB.

[RangeFinder]

K

I would stay away from REITS and bonds

Maybe take some small positions in commodities

[KVB]

K

I would stay away from REITS and bonds

Maybe take some small positions in commodities

Agreed Range and I am looking at some as we speak. This is one of the posts I made in the stock thread while setting up these early positions...

...I got a little impatient and bought some stocks at highs. A pullback won't surprise me and I may even try to lessen the blow in the options market.

I was going to pick up some commodity exposure to offset a pullback with the rest of the portfolio but think it's just a bit too soon. Good thing...they all dropped....

GLTR, SGOL, DBB, USL

I was hoping USL would fall, the world news is still a little bit of bullshit and it will go up again for sure. Some economies threatening to suppress prices rely on those prices...they'll only damage themselves so much.

We might be able to trade USL for profit over the next year, with a long position and options around it.

The US is the worry, they can manipulate the market to damage those economies.

CELG...

[jjgold]

A good idea to buy crude and sell the 30 year bond

[hotcross]

KVB, Mr. Gold has advised me to get to California and slap you silly. So I'll ask if you would prefer backhand or forehand?

Meantime I told him having a placeholder post in this thread isn't a bad idea, so it shows up in our recent posts shortcut links.

[KVB]

I'm probably picking up Citigroup at the market open tomorrow. I'm going to wait and see if there are any futures indications.

While oil may still struggle, right now it looks like commodities like metals and natural gas may do well.

That bodes well for LNG and also means I may be looking to pick something up in the Metals sector as well.

Not so sure about equities though, will have to see as we get closer to open.

[The Kraken]

So you chuck darts in thee stock market as well as picking games

Something to be said about consistency

[jjgold]

Market darts too

Nobody can predict daily price movements

Hold big companies for 25 + years no other way

[The Kraken]

kvb can, just ask him

Best inveatment was btc/alt coin and that was pure luck

[grease lightnin]

Market darts too

Nobody can predict daily price movements

Hold big companies for 25 + years no other way

You writing covered calls as well?

[jjgold]

not now

need to be around a computer a lot for that

[KVB]

I just bought 100 shares of C for $66.21 per share and am immediately down a few cents.

[KVB]

I'll do a portfolio update for this account tonight. The transactions above will be added and the cash position changed a bit.

I almost picked up July puts for both Citigroup and GameStop but held off. I'm watching closely. Honestly, I was looking for the banks to struggle the most today and they did the exact opposite. I still think the banks may struggle a bit and may look to sell Citigroup or follow through on the Put.

Also, I almost sold SCHZ but just held off again. This is a decision between trading what you know and trading what you see.

I do think Grease is right and that fund will struggle. I may be holding in the face of it but a few more pennies lower and I may get out. That will be when what I see joins up with what I know.

I don't have and don't need a replacement to get out of that one.
That's an update, not much but I'll get that portfolio page up soon and look again at the allocation.

[Shute]

You go KVB!!!

[grease lightnin]

I'll do a portfolio update for this account tonight. The transactions above will be added and the cash position changed a bit.

I almost picked up July puts for both Citigroup and GameStop but held off. I'm watching closely. Honestly, I was looking for the banks to struggle the most today and they did the exact opposite. I still think the banks may struggle a bit and may look to sell Citigroup or follow through on the Put.

Also, I almost sold SCHZ but just held off again. This is a decision between trading what you know and trading what you see.

I do think Grease is right and that fund will struggle. I may be holding in the face of it but a few more pennies lower and I may get out. That will be when what I see joins up with what I know.

I don't have and don't need a replacement to get out of that one.
That's an update, not much but I'll get that portfolio page up soon and look again at the allocation.

Financials (equities) should go up as interest rates go up.

Best of luck.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

my favorite part of this thread is the words

[Shute]

KVB
Always sounds smart

[grease lightnin]

not now

need to be around a computer a lot for that

just saw this. yeah you’re never around a computer






thanks jj, sometimes you brighten an otherwise shitty day

[KVB]

An issue I'm looking at that I mentioned in the stock thread is a small cap...

Wish I had seen this one just a bit before.

It's a long term small cap growth semiconductor and it pretty much just broke out.

I wish I had timed it better for the Total Return Fund but timing really doesn't matter if you are in below 9.

Check out HIMX...Himax Technologies.

Trading now at $8.48 but just moved nicely.

I was looking at semiconductor ETF's but this stock is cheap with good potential.

Jordan **, president and CEO of Himax said..."We believe 3D sensing will be our biggest long-term growth engine and, for 2018, a major contributor to both revenue and profits."

I like this stock, last year they announced a manufacturing partnership with Qualcomm and that's going to start showing.

The entry point has passed and we can only hope for some profit taking before getting into this stock.

I think it's best to be on the underside of 9 and would likely sell options to get my breakeven down there if I miss the boat.

I might buy this stock tomorrow.

[KVB]

As of the close yesterday I was down $11.00 unrealized on SCHZ.

Then they gave me an $11.52 dividend SCHZ.



I am not reinvesting dividends here as I want to control the positions a little better.

I just wanted to get this addition in the thread, dividend payments will be tracked as well, they are often forgotten about when talking about appreciation.

I have not picked pup HIMX, it is down a touch today.

I will get it though, I think it's an excellent play.

[KVB]

I just bought 500 shares of HIMX at $8.435 per share.

Also received $26.35 dividend HYLB.

[KVB]

Up over 15% on Gamestop in two weeks and now it's starting the mad pullback.

I should have bailed out already.

I don't even think they have a CEO yet...

Feeling like I made a trading mistake here by not having a proper exit or option strategy. We've seen the obvious pullback after the ex date.

I need to get my shit together...lol.

Good news is that it's a very small position so I had some room for error.

[KVB]

Financials (equities) should go up as interest rates go up.

Best of luck.

Agreed but I was thinking a little more short term with the banks. I was looking at the runs in KRE and KBE and saw this pull back happening. These banks are holding some things up here.

With that, I held Citigroup and am paying. Nearly all these positions bumped a little when I bought, including the recent HIMX but I'm letting some of those fall back.

At least GE and GME are equal to about a unit combined, I knew there could be trouble with those...lol.

It's also time for some sport plays but I'm probably going to change sport strategies for it, I see some opportunity ahead.

Again, I started this, morphed some of the goals, and now need to form some more solid strategies around this money and the particular positions I have.

[KVB]

This account has received $23.56 dividend PFFD.

I sold 2 Calls to open GME 7/20/2018 15.50 @ 0.75.

[jjgold]

KVB what broker you use??

[KVB]

KVB what broker you use??

Schwab for this account.

I have so far been pretty impressed with them. Good resources, low or no vig, excellent education, etc.

There will be sports bets here. I will be putting a $5000 allocation to the CFL sharp forecast very soon and take out the other that has no plays.

[KVB]

...I sold 2 Calls to open GME 7/20/2018 15.50 @ 0.75.

This generated $143.72 after commission for this account.

I am not afraid to call this away at $15.50, it was picked up for $12.66 on May 23rd.

[jjgold]

Do you ever trade futures?