[Coolcanuck79]

I am on Winnipeg as well. ML parlayed with NY Yankees.

[KVB]

Good luck guys.

The Total is right about 54.5, between the 53.5 and 55.5 I suggested. I think the line will tend toward the sharp forecast and move to 55 but I decided not to wait.

I went with OVER 53.5 (-123) and UNDER 55.5 (-127) for Winnipeg vs. British Columbia

For the middle.

It's just these types of situations that had led me to counter those sharp forecasts over the last three years. Much of that was successful but to a lesser extent last year, thanks to both Montreal and Calgary. Actually, when you count the Montreal and Calgary losses, last year was a disaster for those bold plays, but not for the forecast.

It would not surprise me to see BC as this year's Montreal early on, it would also not surprise me to see BC win this game, and the thread knows why.

Now with the perfect (this week) forecasts in agreement and everyone in the thread thinking Winnipeg, well let's just say things look loaded.

We know what's being brought, now let's see how they bring it.

If it's BC, they'll score first. If it's not, BC will still probably score first. I may look to trade a Winnipeg comeback live, but could be totally wrong here.

Like Calgary's blowout, BC might just put the market and the chasers in their place by failing miserably, similar to Ottawa. Further, this doesn't have to be about BC, only rematch pressures is on BC, the rest is from the general market.

It can be about Winnipeg. Their stats and scores are screaming and must come down to earth, but does it have to happen tonight?

Like the S&P breaking new highs in light of all that fear of a correction or recession, Winnipeg might not be done performing. After all, they'll likely remain a high performer all season, but not this high.

If there were numbers sidelining groups in this game, and clearly there isn't much (look at the Total spread between forecasts) then I might consider getting back the contrarian money lost in the first game.

But that simply isn't the case and I think I'll stick with more patience before countering the forecasts in the thread, even with the records. It's only a three game week and that lack of an extra game makes it much easier for the market to stay one sided, and pay the forecasts.

Good Luck again guys and thanks HngKng, these little summaries are helping me as well.

[Coolcanuck79]

GL everyone!!!

[KVB]

Heritage showing a drop to 3.5 as others press on down on 4.

That pressure on BC is showing and could be generating some BC steam, but it shouldn't be much. I'd counter the steam, if it looks like we see some to a larger market level.

I don't think we will, but we'll have to see.

The total is not budging. I'd like to see some more 55's out there instead of 54.5, for a push on the closer.

[KVB]

This offers the thread another set of "reverse line movement" but once again readers of this thread understand what is happening.

Regardless of the sport, that type of RLM is obviously not because some sharp groups are holding a forecast that is so far off of the number being hung, but I believe some groups were waiting for the best number they could get, even if they did create a prediction accounting for the market environment.

BC and Winnipeg may both be about to disappoint this afternoon's bettors.

[Coolcanuck79]

Bet365 still at 55.5 and Bodog and Bookmaker are holding at 55 ... so far.

[KVB]

SBR Book had 55.5, so I took the Under then bought down to 53.5 for the OVER with betpoints.

Going for the middle for charity.

[Coolcanuck79]

SBR book had 55.5, so I took the Under then bought down to 53.5 for the OVER with betpoints.

Going for the middle for charity.

[Hngkng]

We all remember last year's back to back matchups?
Basically teams split, so that scares me a bit about today's matchup.
On one hand, Lulay could give them a boost, on the other hand Lulay could not be ready at all.
I know one thing, having Lulay doesn't mean their garbage O line is better, and that their D can stop something.

[KVB]

Yeah HngKng, it's hard to put money on an unproven team, but the hardest bets sometimes win. It's only one game and your thinking here wins money overall.

But Some books holding that line and changing the price.

Pinny shows -4.5 (+104). This can attract late money on Winnipeg, but that money is selling back as it arbs out.

If they had the BC bets, and that line is too low, then why do they want to attract Winnipeg bets?

This is not generally a good sign but developed late enough that it just may not make much difference.

There's more on this, but I've written a lot today.

Game Time

[KVB]

Winnipeg out fast and there is no way I'm picking BC live here.

Winnipeg looks to keep rolling and could very well bury a certain chasing segment of the market tonight.

[tradeout]

SBR Book had 55.5, so I took the Under then bought down to 53.5 for the OVER with betpoints.

Going for the middle for charity.

bro

did you bet 60 points on both sides hoping to middle?

[KVB]

bro

did you bet 60 points on both sides hoping to middle?

I did, 62 points actually and some freeplay as well. I often forget about the SBR book and remembered tonight and they had 55.5 listed, but the cost to buy the over was ridiculous.

I also put some freeplay on an MMA fight. I was going to transfer points but I'm going to make an Angelman donation, it costs 495 points.

Win or lose, the donation is coming. Nothing wrong with shooting for Angelman with a nice pay low risk point shot, no matter the points.

That's what they are for (and to give to posters) and that's how many were in the account.

Not too worried about trying to roll a high point balance because I don't give it much attention and also give Angelman cash, that I do spend time building.

[tradeout]

live bet +14.5 bc lions?

[KVB]

live bet +14.5 bc lions?

The way the market is set, the way the market has set up and paid, this could be an ugly blowout.

It just doesn't meet the criteria comeback that we want to have.

If BC was up two scores, I would buy Winnipeg.

[KVB]

The way the market is set, the way the market has set up and paid, this could be an ugly blowout.

It just doesn't meet the criteria comeback that we want to have.

If BC was up two scores, I would buy Winnipeg.

The bettors whose hopes are destined to fall were far more likely the BC bettors, because of how they arrived at BC, than the Winnipeg bettors.

That's really one strong way to read the how they bring it part, but you have to accept what is being brought first.

Winnipeg will get its fall, but not so sure it's tonight.

[Hngkng]

BC's O and D line looks like a hot mess (as it has been all year). Swiss cheese defense. Bombers with a surprise onside kick.

It hurts me to say this, but the only O line that looks worse than BC this year so far is Saskatchewan's........

[KVB]

BC's O and D line looks like a hot mess. Swiss cheese defense. Bombers with a surprise onside kick

I don't see this pattern changing, and with the exception of the 3rd down conversion, the favorite looks real strong, continuing their own pattern even on offense.

It's BC that should be doing the onside, not Winnipeg, but Winnipeg got points for it.

It very well could be the drubbing it's set up to be.

[KVB]

The bettors whose hopes are destined to fall were far more likely the BC bettors, because of how they arrived at BC, than the Winnipeg bettors.

That's really one strong way to read the how they bring it part...

We've often talked about how it's about one team or the other and we've seen games where the result wasn't so much about the winner doing well, but the loser looking terrible.

Understanding where the thinking and money comes from and goes can give hints to how it will play out on the field. We've seen market environments manage to steer money to the Over in the pouring rain. And we know how that plays out on the field.

We've also seen, time and time again, money get stacked to one side only to get horribly blown out.

Bettors have to balance their rational thinking with the emotional tug that some results will bring, win or lose.

[Hngkng]

that 2nd and 5 play sums up the BC season so far. Arceneaux has a clear path for a first down, he goes backwards, and falls on his own to make it 3rd down.

[Hngkng]

And the clown show continues. Let 10+ seconds run off, drop a TD, and half over

[KVB]

And the clown show continues. Let 10+ seconds run off, drop a TD, and half over

All that after a penalty that was quite a stretch. BC had help there.

Not exactly in a hurry to get to 54 points, lol.

CFL needs some games between teams firing on all cylinders. Overs will be coming, maybe as soon as next week.

[KVB]

BC trying to make it interesting, reminding the world that it's not that easy to ace the week with the forecasts, even if it is a 3 game week.

Even in the face of the forecast success, I still don't buy it and I think this is the BC hope that Winnipeg was bound to crush; but what do I know?

[Hngkng]

BC trying to make it interesting, reminding the world that it's not that easy to ace the week with the forecasts, even if it is a 3 game week.

Even in the face of the forecast success, I still don't buy it and I think this is the BC hope that Winnipeg was bound to crush; but what do I know?

We are watching some kind of a collapse happening right now.

[KVB]

We are watching some kind of a collapse happening right now.

They failed on 3rd down in field goal range.

I think you are right, those risks of taking Winnipeg are trying to show through here.

[Hngkng]

They failed on 3rd down in field goal range.

I think you are right, those risks of taking Winnipeg are trying to show through here.

Failed twice on 3rd and inches inside the BC 10 yard line!

[KVB]

Failed twice on 3rd and inches inside the BC 10 yard line!

I mentioned the scoring stats for Winnipeg was running awfully high, those failed 3rd downs and this game will serve to chill those numbers out a bit, even if Winnipeg still wins and covers.

[Hngkng]

I mentioned the scoring stats for Winnipeg was running awfully high, those failed 3rd downs and this game will serve to chill those numbers out a bit, even if Winnipeg still wins and covers.

I get going lateral when you need over a yard for a QB sneak, but hate when teams go lateral on QB sneaks when they need a few inches.

[tradeout]

triple overtime coming?

[tradeout]

over 74?

[Hngkng]

triple overtime coming?

Max of 2 OT in regular season.

[Hngkng]

They failed on 3rd down in field goal range.

I think you are right, those risks of taking Winnipeg are trying to show through here.

What an amazing collpase by the bombers.
We could see it coming from a mile away

[KVB]

live bet +14.5 bc lions?

Well this one would have won.

I would say we should have known, especially in the CFL, but I just wasn't interested in entering live.

Winnipeg just stopped playing and BC started responding to the pressure.

Sigh...lol.

[KVB]

...The only bet I’m considering at this stage that isn’t a forecast prediction is the Over/Under buying points middle opportunity. Given the recent market set ups and the game one results, I’m passing on countering with BC.

But you know I’m tempted and you know why.

I can’t wait until next week, when we can really take these forecast for season competition...

I told myself I wouldn't burden this thread with countering the forecast bold plays, I did it with Montreal, did it with Ottawa, then said no more.

This games not over, but I feel I've let the thread down.

In fairness, I said I'd warn when the forecast would fail, and that I did do...

...You can use this information alongside your own handicapping or go ahead and blindly press the forecasts that are in agreement, but do so at your own explained risk.

There may be a reason Lulay is back...

I'm glad the early season is over.

[Hngkng]

Dang that really sucked, up 17-0 at half, and no show for the offense in the second half.
Anyone follow along with under 11.5 wins for Winnipeg this year? 3 losses now, looking for 4 more!


Bombers simply boned themselves with some penalties and very dumb turnovers (both things not usual for this team) Also might of been the worst half of football Nichols has played as Bomber. Hall and the late game D