Nice horse but he's one of few instant toss outs...If horses like Bodemeister or Curlin could not "break the curse" no way moon can...Same with Justify and Mendelssohn(No USA starts) they are first toss outs on win end and probably be the top 3 in betting choices....Race has fall apart written all over it kinda like the palace malice setting crazy pace and Orb swallowing em up or my favorite Giacomo that was nuts...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FANbo8JiNRc
Winner comes out of Bluegrass stakes IMO and I will also use Florida Derby Winner who is the forgotten horse and anyone but Justify out of California...I will probably use 5-7 horses all prices in pic 3/4/5's
Here is a Must read my favorite "system" and proven Jon White Strikes System
DERBY STRIKES SITUATION
My Derby Strikes System consists of nine key factors that attempt to ascertain the chances a horse has to win the Kentucky Derby from both tactical and historical perspectives. When a horse does not qualify in one of the nine categories, the horse gets a strike. The nine key factors are explained at the end of this column.
The Derby Strikes System goes back to 1973. It can’t go back any further because a couple of the key categories are associated with graded stakes races. Graded stakes races began in this country in 1973.
Going back to 1973, 38 of the last 45 Kentucky Derby winners have had zero strikes or one strike.
Six of the last 45 Kentucky Derby winners have had two strikes: Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005) and Always Dreaming (2017).
Only one horse in the last 45 years has won the Kentucky Derby with more than two strikes. That was Mine that Bird, who had four strikes.
As I noted last week, Justify has three strikes. Not surprisingly, it’s his lack of a race as a 2-year-old and overall lack of racing experience that triggers the three strikes.
What are Justify’s three strikes? He gets one strike in Category 1 for not having run in a graded stakes race before March 31. He also gets a strike in Category 6 for not having at least six lifetime starts before the Kentucky Derby. And his third strike comes in Category 8 for not having started as a 2-year-old.
Can Justify win the Kentucky Derby even though he has three strikes? He seems to be such a prodigious talent that I think so. I certainly would not have him ranked No. 1 if I didn’t think he could possibly do it.
But do I view Justify’s three strikes as a concern? Yes. It calls attention to the fact that, any way you slice it, it’s very difficult to try and win the Kentucky Derby with zero starts as a 2-year-old and only three lifetime starts.
Magnum Moon, like Justify, gets strikes in Categories 6 and 8. In the case of Magnum Moon, at least he has just two strikes, instead of three like Justify.
No question one of the more fascinating aspects to the 2018 Kentucky Derby is that two contenders, Justify and Magnum Moon, both did not race at 2. Since Apollo in 1882, 135 straight Kentucky Derby winners have raced at 2.
“But this long streak appears to be in serious jeopardy this year, thanks to a pair of seriously talented colts, Justify and Magnum Moon,” I wrote here in my Xpressbet.com column on March 21.
Since I wrote that on March 21, Justify has gone on to win the Santa Anita Derby by three lengths on April 7, followed by Magnum Moon’s Arkansas Derby victory by an even bigger margin last Saturday.
Since 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old are a combined 0 for 61 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, the only horses to even place or show were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.
These are the strikes for the 20 horses currently listed as in the Kentucky Derby field by Churchill Downs:
ZERO STRIKES OR ONE STRIKE
Audible (Category 6)
Bolt d’Oro (Category 4)
Enticed (0 strikes)
Flameaway (0 strikes)
Free Drop Billy (Category 3)
Good Magic (Category 6)
Mendelssohn (0 strikes)
My Boy Jack (Category 4)
Quip (Category 6)
Vino Rosso (Category 6)
TWO STRIKES
Bravazo (Categories 4 and 5)
Firenze Fire (Categories 3 and 5)
Lone Sailor (Categories 2 and 4)
Magnum Moon (Categories 6 and 8)
Solomini (Categories 2 and 3)
THREE STRIKES
Gronkowski (Categories 1, 2 and 5)
Hofburg (Categories 1, 2 and 6)
Justify (Categories 1, 6 and 8)
Noble Indy (Categories 3, 6 and 7)
Promises Fulfilled (Categories 4, 5 and 6)