Rarely share my picks, but would like to share this one with you all...

[chargers4222]

Magnum Moon to Win the Kentucky Derby

This horse is a physical freak, and more importantly, a closer. He has warded off groups of talented horses down the stretch in big races, something he will need to do in a race that will likely have 20 or more entrants.

The biggest knock against Magnum Moon is the "Curse of Apollo." No horse who did not race as a 2-year-old has won the Kentucky Derby since Apollo did it in 1882. Many horses in this situation have placed in the Derby since then, but none have won it.

I think this is purely coincidence, and has more to do with the low percentage of quality horses who skip their 2-year-old year. I do not think it is the same as a 16 seed never beating a 1 seed in the tourney, because there is much more of a talent gap there, but of course, we saw that even that can be done with UMBC beating Virginia.

The reason I think Magnum Moon will be the horse to break this curse is partially due to his competition. I believe Justify is the only horse that is on the same level physically as Magnum Moon, and Justify also did not race as a 2-year-old, which levels the playing field as far as that's concerned.

Finally, the horse's name is "Magnum Moon." He's going to break the "Curse of Apollo." Sometimes the headlines write themselves.

Mainly posting this for proof to show friends if it hits, though the payout itself should be proof enough. Surely I have jinxed it now, but what the hell. Just wanted to share this for your consideration.

[Hman]

Best of luck

[BennyBigNuts]

What's the odds on this pig?

[chargers4222]

What's the odds on this pig?

I got him at +700 in a futures bet -- if I had to guess, he will likely go off at around 10-1 on race day. Justify will probably be 5/1, and a couple other horses will hover around that 10/1 range.

The Derby is really a "Win Only" type of betting situation, so I like to call my shot each year with just one horse. If you're betting exotics, you're guessing. You're guessing with every sports wager, but it's best to save the exotics for smaller fields in the Preakness and Belmont.

[mintpicks79]

5dimes has him at +600

[sweethook]

hes the fav

[cincinnatikid513]

hes the fav

justify is fav

[Chi_archie]

get em

[littlekona]

Nice horse but he's one of few instant toss outs...If horses like Bodemeister or Curlin could not "break the curse" no way moon can...Same with Justify and Mendelssohn(No USA starts) they are first toss outs on win end and probably be the top 3 in betting choices....Race has fall apart written all over it kinda like the palace malice setting crazy pace and Orb swallowing em up or my favorite Giacomo that was nuts...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FANbo8JiNRc

Winner comes out of Bluegrass stakes IMO and I will also use Florida Derby Winner who is the forgotten horse and anyone but Justify out of California...I will probably use 5-7 horses all prices in pic 3/4/5's

Here is a Must read my favorite "system" and proven Jon White Strikes System

DERBY STRIKES SITUATION

My Derby Strikes System consists of nine key factors that attempt to ascertain the chances a horse has to win the Kentucky Derby from both tactical and historical perspectives. When a horse does not qualify in one of the nine categories, the horse gets a strike. The nine key factors are explained at the end of this column.

The Derby Strikes System goes back to 1973. It can’t go back any further because a couple of the key categories are associated with graded stakes races. Graded stakes races began in this country in 1973.

Going back to 1973, 38 of the last 45 Kentucky Derby winners have had zero strikes or one strike.

Six of the last 45 Kentucky Derby winners have had two strikes: Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005) and Always Dreaming (2017).

Only one horse in the last 45 years has won the Kentucky Derby with more than two strikes. That was Mine that Bird, who had four strikes.

As I noted last week, Justify has three strikes. Not surprisingly, it’s his lack of a race as a 2-year-old and overall lack of racing experience that triggers the three strikes.

What are Justify’s three strikes? He gets one strike in Category 1 for not having run in a graded stakes race before March 31. He also gets a strike in Category 6 for not having at least six lifetime starts before the Kentucky Derby. And his third strike comes in Category 8 for not having started as a 2-year-old.

Can Justify win the Kentucky Derby even though he has three strikes? He seems to be such a prodigious talent that I think so. I certainly would not have him ranked No. 1 if I didn’t think he could possibly do it.

But do I view Justify’s three strikes as a concern? Yes. It calls attention to the fact that, any way you slice it, it’s very difficult to try and win the Kentucky Derby with zero starts as a 2-year-old and only three lifetime starts.

Magnum Moon, like Justify, gets strikes in Categories 6 and 8. In the case of Magnum Moon, at least he has just two strikes, instead of three like Justify.

No question one of the more fascinating aspects to the 2018 Kentucky Derby is that two contenders, Justify and Magnum Moon, both did not race at 2. Since Apollo in 1882, 135 straight Kentucky Derby winners have raced at 2.

“But this long streak appears to be in serious jeopardy this year, thanks to a pair of seriously talented colts, Justify and Magnum Moon,” I wrote here in my Xpressbet.com column on March 21.

Since I wrote that on March 21, Justify has gone on to win the Santa Anita Derby by three lengths on April 7, followed by Magnum Moon’s Arkansas Derby victory by an even bigger margin last Saturday.

Since 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old are a combined 0 for 61 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, the only horses to even place or show were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.

These are the strikes for the 20 horses currently listed as in the Kentucky Derby field by Churchill Downs:

ZERO STRIKES OR ONE STRIKE

Audible (Category 6)
Bolt d’Oro (Category 4)
Enticed (0 strikes)
Flameaway (0 strikes)
Free Drop Billy (Category 3)
Good Magic (Category 6)
Mendelssohn (0 strikes)
My Boy Jack (Category 4)
Quip (Category 6)
Vino Rosso (Category 6)

TWO STRIKES

Bravazo (Categories 4 and 5)
Firenze Fire (Categories 3 and 5)
Lone Sailor (Categories 2 and 4)
Magnum Moon (Categories 6 and 8)
Solomini (Categories 2 and 3)

THREE STRIKES

Gronkowski (Categories 1, 2 and 5)
Hofburg (Categories 1, 2 and 6)
Justify (Categories 1, 6 and 8)
Noble Indy (Categories 3, 6 and 7)
Promises Fulfilled (Categories 4, 5 and 6)

[cincinnatikid513]

just watched mendelssohn race crushed them

[Cardinals01]

I got him at +700 in a futures bet -- if I had to guess, he will likely go offer at around 10-1 on race day. Justify will probably be 5/1, and a couple other horses will hover around that 10/1 range.

The Derby is really a "Win Only" type of betting situation, so I like to call my shot each year with just one horse. If you're betting exotics, you're guessing. You're guessing with every sports wager, but it's best to save the exotics for smaller fields in the Preakness and Belmont.

Appreciate the info above. I have to disagree on the Derby being a “Win Only” situation. I understand with a 20 horse field there are many factors that can influence the race. With 20 horses, hitting an exotic(s) can provide a huge payday. I think it’s worth it.
What other horses do you think have a shot?
I’ll have to take a look at The Derby Strikes system posted above, but the guy gets half the field that meets his criteria for this years race. In past years, is it normally 10 horses that meet the zero or 1 strike segment?

[Swinging Johnson]

This is a good thread. The Jon White Strikes System sounds pretty cool. The headlines write themselves - good line Charger - and if it's not Magnum Moon then my bet is on Enticed (0 strikes). It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

"What's the odds on this pig" had me laughing

Nce job fellas!

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Magnum Moon will be nowhere near 10/1 on Derby Day; I pounded him in his last race and he looked superb but the Derby is a different game and he'll be low odds.

[tony_come]

Did he win?

[chargers4222]

Nice horse but he's one of few instant toss outs...If horses like Bodemeister or Curlin could not "break the curse" no way moon can...Same with Justify and Mendelssohn(No USA starts) they are first toss outs on win end and probably be the top 3 in betting choices....Race has fall apart written all over it kinda like the palace malice setting crazy pace and Orb swallowing em up or my favorite Giacomo that was nuts...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FANbo8JiNRc

Winner comes out of Bluegrass stakes IMO and I will also use Florida Derby Winner who is the forgotten horse and anyone but Justify out of California...I will probably use 5-7 horses all prices in pic 3/4/5's

Here is a Must read my favorite "system" and proven Jon White Strikes System

DERBY STRIKES SITUATION

My Derby Strikes System consists of nine key factors that attempt to ascertain the chances a horse has to win the Kentucky Derby from both tactical and historical perspectives. When a horse does not qualify in one of the nine categories, the horse gets a strike. The nine key factors are explained at the end of this column.

The Derby Strikes System goes back to 1973. It can’t go back any further because a couple of the key categories are associated with graded stakes races. Graded stakes races began in this country in 1973.

Going back to 1973, 38 of the last 45 Kentucky Derby winners have had zero strikes or one strike.

Six of the last 45 Kentucky Derby winners have had two strikes: Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005) and Always Dreaming (2017).

Only one horse in the last 45 years has won the Kentucky Derby with more than two strikes. That was Mine that Bird, who had four strikes.

As I noted last week, Justify has three strikes. Not surprisingly, it’s his lack of a race as a 2-year-old and overall lack of racing experience that triggers the three strikes.

What are Justify’s three strikes? He gets one strike in Category 1 for not having run in a graded stakes race before March 31. He also gets a strike in Category 6 for not having at least six lifetime starts before the Kentucky Derby. And his third strike comes in Category 8 for not having started as a 2-year-old.

Can Justify win the Kentucky Derby even though he has three strikes? He seems to be such a prodigious talent that I think so. I certainly would not have him ranked No. 1 if I didn’t think he could possibly do it.

But do I view Justify’s three strikes as a concern? Yes. It calls attention to the fact that, any way you slice it, it’s very difficult to try and win the Kentucky Derby with zero starts as a 2-year-old and only three lifetime starts.

Magnum Moon, like Justify, gets strikes in Categories 6 and 8. In the case of Magnum Moon, at least he has just two strikes, instead of three like Justify.

No question one of the more fascinating aspects to the 2018 Kentucky Derby is that two contenders, Justify and Magnum Moon, both did not race at 2. Since Apollo in 1882, 135 straight Kentucky Derby winners have raced at 2.

“But this long streak appears to be in serious jeopardy this year, thanks to a pair of seriously talented colts, Justify and Magnum Moon,” I wrote here in my Xpressbet.com column on March 21.

Since I wrote that on March 21, Justify has gone on to win the Santa Anita Derby by three lengths on April 7, followed by Magnum Moon’s Arkansas Derby victory by an even bigger margin last Saturday.

Since 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old are a combined 0 for 61 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, the only horses to even place or show were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.

These are the strikes for the 20 horses currently listed as in the Kentucky Derby field by Churchill Downs:

ZERO STRIKES OR ONE STRIKE

Audible (Category 6)
Bolt d’Oro (Category 4)
Enticed (0 strikes)
Flameaway (0 strikes)
Free Drop Billy (Category 3)
Good Magic (Category 6)
Mendelssohn (0 strikes)
My Boy Jack (Category 4)
Quip (Category 6)
Vino Rosso (Category 6)

TWO STRIKES

Bravazo (Categories 4 and 5)
Firenze Fire (Categories 3 and 5)
Lone Sailor (Categories 2 and 4)
Magnum Moon (Categories 6 and 8)
Solomini (Categories 2 and 3)

THREE STRIKES

Gronkowski (Categories 1, 2 and 5)
Hofburg (Categories 1, 2 and 6)
Justify (Categories 1, 6 and 8)
Noble Indy (Categories 3, 6 and 7)
Promises Fulfilled (Categories 4, 5 and 6)

I remember seeing something like this a couple years ago -- do you have the "nine key factors" or a link to the main article?

I love this type of stuff, especially with racing, but I find it hard to believe he made these nine "strikes" without factoring in European horses, and yet Mendelssohn has zero strikes.

[chargers4222]

Appreciate the info above. I have to disagree on the Derby being a “Win Only” situation. I understand with a 20 horse field there are many factors that can influence the race. With 20 horses, hitting an exotic(s) can provide a huge payday. I think it’s worth it.
What other horses do you think have a shot?
I’ll have to take a look at The Derby Strikes system posted above, but the guy gets half the field that meets his criteria for this years race. In past years, is it normally 10 horses that meet the zero or 1 strike segment?

I think Bolt d'Oro is the next-best horse behind the top two -- pedigree matters in these big races, and he definitely has it. As of now, I'll be putting 90% of my Derby roll on Magnum Moon to Win, 5% on Bolt d'Oro to Win, and 5% on some random straight superfecta lottery tickets.

I agree the payouts are really enticing for these 20-horse races, but it's just not worth it. However, I will say that the Derby has been very chalky in recent years. If this trend holds, you can get a pretty good payout by just boxing a handful of favorites in a 5-horse super and hoping for the best.

I would just rather wait until the Preakness and play a 4-horse box super -- much cheaper obviously, plus you get to see how the horses run in the Derby, and at least one longshot usually sneaks in to the super at Pimlico.

[chargers4222]

Magnum Moon will be nowhere near 10/1 on Derby Day; I pounded him in his last race and he looked superb but the Derby is a different game and he'll be low odds.

I think it depends on how many entrants there are, but you're probably right -- I'll be happy with 5-1, plus my +700 is already booked.

[jtoler]

nice writeup

[CWD]

Good thread bros

[jjgold]

Need racing luck

Does
Not matter how good a horse is in large fields if he gets trapped

[littlekona]

I think Bolt d'Oro is the next-best horse behind the top two -- pedigree matters in these big races, and he definitely has it. As of now, I'll be putting 90% of my Derby roll on Magnum Moon to Win, 5% on Bolt d'Oro to Win, and 5% on some random straight superfecta lottery tickets.

I agree the payouts are really enticing for these 20-horse races, but it's just not worth it. However, I will say that the Derby has been very chalky in recent years. If this trend holds, you can get a pretty good payout by just boxing a handful of favorites in a 5-horse super and hoping for the best.

I would just rather wait until the Preakness and play a 4-horse box super -- much cheaper obviously, plus you get to see how the horses run in the Derby, and at least one longshot usually sneaks in to the super at Pimlico.

Bolt does not have the pedigree though...

BOLT D'ORO DP = 7-11-12-2-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72
Mare Profile = 11-2-2-4-10 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-8-16
He has posted one of the highest beyer performances to date. The 12 in the Classic slot from his chefs is the only thing giving him the distance he needed for that win. His mares numbers are split. His triads are nowhere near where they need to be for the Kentucky Derby. The high beyer number comes directly from the 7 in the brilliant chefs profile and from that huge 11 in the Mares profile. This guy appears to have a Breeders Cup Dirt Mile profile.

[littlekona]

I remember seeing something like this a couple years ago -- do you have the "nine key factors" or a link to the main article?

I love this type of stuff, especially with racing, but I find it hard to believe he made these nine "strikes" without factoring in European horses, and yet Mendelssohn has zero strikes.

go to xpressbet blog jon white is there with the system...hes good... I think the "10th" Strike is not racing in the USA...Visually impressive but Seriously he beat nobody in Dubai and that track was like running on concrete with no passing sign up all day...Now the Strike System is just for the WIN many 2 Strike+ horses have hit board...The way I will play I do pick 3/4's so I will take the bluegrass horses plus My Boy Jack and Audible so 5 and use the bluegrass runners as A's others as B's in Pic 3/4's and hope I make it to derby leg

[chargers4222]

Bolt does not have the pedigree though...

BOLT D'ORO DP = 7-11-12-2-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72
Mare Profile = 11-2-2-4-10 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-8-16
He has posted one of the highest beyer performances to date. The 12 in the Classic slot from his chefs is the only thing giving him the distance he needed for that win. His mares numbers are split. His triads are nowhere near where they need to be for the Kentucky Derby. The high beyer number comes directly from the 7 in the brilliant chefs profile and from that huge 11 in the Mares profile. This guy appears to have a Breeders Cup Dirt Mile profile.

I'm just talking about his pedigree as a racehorse in general. His sire is pumping out winners left and right. Any horse with "d'Oro" is worthy of a bet these days.

"Multiple Grade 1 winner Bolt d’Oro helped power a career year for sire Medaglia d’Oro and this spring will look to give his sire another career accomplishment, as the elite stallion is still hunting his first Kentucky Derby win. Medaglia d’Oro led all stallions in North America with seven different Grade 1 winners in 2017, including a pair of Breeders’ Cup winners, with five of those becoming Eclipse Award finalists. The son of El Prado joined Danzig, Mr. Prospector, and Storm Cat as the only American stallions to sire seven Grade 1 winners in a calendar year."

He also sired Rachel Alexandra, who might be the second-best horse of my lifetime behind Pharoah. I like Bolt a lot, and definitely more than Justify, but just not as my main pick.

[Foxx]

Did he win?

[Otters27]

Cool. Thanks charger

[bonzaii]

Need racing luck

Does
Not matter how good a horse is in large fields if he gets trapped

[sourtwist]

That fukk should nevet be allowed near a track again

[bonzaii]

That fukk should nevet be allowed near a track again

Guy defintely needs an ass beating after pulling that shit

[BarkingToad]

Nice write up as Magnum Moon will be a very strong contender, I just don't trust Pletcher in the Derby. He always runs 4 or 5 horses that don't win. Justify was strong in Santa Anita Derby. However, Mendelssohn won a $2 million race at Dubai by 18 lengths (comment line said easily) carrying the derby weight, at almost the derby distance. Only time he hasn't carried the derby weight or more was when he won BC Juvy Turf. Maybe I'll have to box Mendelssohn and Magnum Moon.

[littlekona]

Nice write up as Magnum Moon will be a very strong contender, I just don't trust Pletcher in the Derby. He always runs 4 or 5 horses that don't win. Justify was strong in Santa Anita Derby. However, Mendelssohn won a $2 million race at Dubai by 18 lengths (comment line said easily) carrying the derby weight, at almost the derby distance. Only time he hasn't carried the derby weight or more was when he lost BC Juvy by a head. Maybe I'll have to box Mendelssohn and Magnum Moon.

you guys are funny... guess 135 years history of no non raced 2 year olds winning is nothing...Plus no Euro horse has ever even come close.....Toss from win spot all 3 and then start handicapping from there thats the rule #1 then just toss out all the 2+ strike horses then you got a chance and at a price too

winner is one of these IMO:
Audible (Category 6)
Flameaway (0 strikes)
Free Drop Billy (Category 3)
Good Magic (Category 6)
My Boy Jack (Category 4)

[mrginandtonic]

you guys are funny... guess 135 years history of no non raced 2 year olds winning is nothing...Plus no Euro horse has ever even come close.....Toss from win spot all 3 and then start handicapping from there thats the rule #1 then just toss out all the 2+ strike horses then you got a chance and at a price too

First of all, I agree history says a lot about the Derby. But we need to take into context that the past 135 years, not every year has a non raced 2 yr old and certainly not until recently we have Euro shippers. Also, I have my doubts about this year’s 3 year old. Aside from these three “non qualifiers”, the rest are just so so. That’s why I won’t be shocked if one of these wins. I don’t think they should be an automatic toss out. As of now, I prefer Justify over Magnum Moon just because he reminds me a lot like Bodimeister which was also trained by Baffert. Baffert knows a thing or two about these triple crown races. After getting the Pharoah win the Triple Crown, I won’t be surprised if he gets an unraced two year old to win the Derby. That’s just my two cents. Will look at this more when post is drawn. GL all.

[littlekona]

First of all, I agree history says a lot about the Derby. But we need to take into context that the past 135 years, not every year has a non raced 2 yr old and certainly not until recently we have Euro shippers. Also, I have my doubts about this year’s 3 year old. Aside from these three “non qualifiers”, the rest are just so so. That’s why I won’t be shocked if one of these wins. I don’t think they should be an automatic toss out. As of now, I prefer Justify over Magnum Moon just because he reminds me a lot like Bodimeister which was also trained by Baffert. Baffert knows a thing or two about these triple crown races. After getting the Pharoah win the Triple Crown, I won’t be surprised if he gets an unraced two year old to win the Derby. That’s just my two cents. Will look at this more when post is drawn. GL all.

come on Bodimiester was absolute speedball beast you can not compare btw he was only 1 day away from racing as a 2 year old if i remember right he started on Jan 1st..If horses like Bodimiester and Curlin could not do it no way a Magnum Moon or Justify will or a Euro who ran on concrete against a horrible field...Sorry just giving you the facts sir... Plus race has fall apart written all over it doesn't it?

[mrginandtonic]

come on Bodimiester was absolute speedball beast you can not compare btw he was only 1 day away from racing as a 2 year old if i remember right he started on Jan 1st..If horses like Bodimiester and Curlin could not do it no way a Magnum Moon or Justify will or a Euro who ran on concrete against a horrible field...Sorry just giving you the facts sir... Plus race has fall apart written all over it doesn't it?

I’m not saying they are gonna win, I just don’t think they are automatic toss. GL

[BarkingToad]

go to xpressbet blog jon white is there with the system...hes good... I think the "10th" Strike is not racing in the USA...Visually impressive but Seriously he beat nobody in Dubai and that track was like running on concrete with no passing sign up all day...Now the Strike System is just for the WIN many 2 Strike+ horses have hit board...The way I will play I do pick 3/4's so I will take the bluegrass horses plus My Boy Jack and Audible so 5 and use the bluegrass runners as A's others as B's in Pic 3/4's and hope I make it to derby leg

You keep saying Mendelssohn had no US starts, he won a Breeders Cup race at Del Mar.

[HurryUpAndDrink]

Nice thread. Never bet on ponies but I do find it amusing.