[d2bets]

You haven't been following this thread for long have you. I fully have long term Puts in QQQ, SPY, and IWM.
Don't mistake my weekly trades for my long term outlook.
Just today I got rid of calls when the SPY failed to hold 405. I'm back on the short term put train to 360-370 area. I originally thought that the SPY may get to 415 on this run. The market is weak but nothing goes straight down or up, except that cyrpto that blew up the other day.

So even after current ~ 3% decline today, you're looking for another 7-8% short-term drop from here in the short-term?

[Slurry Pumper]

So even after current ~ 3% decline today, you're looking for another 7-8% short-term drop from here in the short-term?

Yeah, I think we at least challenge 385 again, and probably hit a lower low before we see 410 again. Tbe relief rally peterd out and never really got the short squeeze affect going. Remember, no capitulation means they will be back to retest and probably sink lower.

[k13]

Markets are weak due to the profit taking from yesterday. Again, it's the short term traders controlling the markets right now. It's what happens when the economy is tanking with inflation. Should end by end of summer IMO. But for the time being, this is what we will be dealing with.

This party is just getting started not ending.

[milwaukee mike]

This party is just getting started not ending.

yeah, i would guess the dj/s&p are lower a few years from now

the phony economy we've had for the past few decades (print money we don't have, and give it to people that don't deserve it) is all but over

[milwaukee mike]

Absolutely nothing changed between Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. Just traders taking it up and down, up and down. Capitulation still has not happened though, so lower low seems likely to me. I know you said 380 which is possible, but I'd guess more like 370.

What are you thinking ends by end of summer? Inflation? Maybe. Then is that followed by recession or by resumption of times. Rate of inflation will probably recede, but even so prices will be seriously elevated with purchasing power in the tank. So hard to forecast because most people alive now really haven't experienced inflation like this in their lifetime.

i actually think a LOT changed this week... walmart and target showed that the consumer won't just keep covering price inflation by buying more stuff at higher prices

us economy is based so much on consumer spending, which looks like it will be falling pretty dramatically, unfortunately leaving a lot of people with tough choices on what essentials they can cover

[eidolon]

I'm down to my last pair of underwear

[Slurry Pumper]

Well it only took a day to get back to the $385 area on the SPY. Is this a big fake out operation by the Trick, Trap, Fool, and Fuk you sideways crew? Is this just a visit to test a recent low? Well maybe you never know it could bounce right off the open this morning and claw back some of the losses from yesterday in an attempt to rescue the tape. If the SPY starts to close 10 minute, then 15 minute, and 30 minute candles below the $385.15 level on the SPY, that will be a clue that lower prices are indeed on the program for the day and the next level I see as maybe a spot of support is around $380, and $378.
The last time down to the $385 level had no selling capitulation which generally means they would be back. After the last rally ran out of steam I knew a visit of $385 was fully coming and probably another lower low to print on the tape. This time, I'm on the record for the $360 - $370 spot. Also of note a few months ago, or maybe even like 6 months ago. We got a phony daily candle that showed a spike of $366.50 if you recall. We these things happen, I usually put that level in the chart and take note because it seems like the phony spike is a fortune teller of sorts. At the time that was like a 75 point drop and seemed far fetched, but today we find ourselves within striking distance.

[Slurry Pumper]

Its deja vu all over again. 385 is the low that means something down is in the cards. The upside for the SPY looks like $395 to start. In the premarket price is hanging out just below. Then on a push we have $395.60, $396.50, $397.20, $398, and $400 all bunched together as support and resistance spots. On a monster push up there is the top of the breakdown candle of $403.30 and if things get fully stoopid, we have the gap sitting at $406.30.
So these are the "up" numbers to look for today.

[d2bets]

Its deja vu all over again. 385 is the low that means something down is in the cards. The upside for the SPY looks like $395 to start. In the premarket price is hanging out just below. Then on a push we have $395.60, $396.50, $397.20, $398, and $400 all bunched together as support and resistance spots. On a monster push up there is the top of the breakdown candle of $403.30 and if things get fully stoopid, we have the gap sitting at $406.30.
So these are the "up" numbers to look for today.

Well there it is, broke down below 385.

[milwaukee mike]

7 straight down weeks for the s&p... this has only happened 4 times since ww2, so around once every 20 years

[chico2663]

Faking Biden fuckking Elon!

[d2bets]

7 straight down weeks for the s&p... this has only happened 4 times since ww2, so around once every 20 years

When were the 4 times?

[Slurry Pumper]

Well there it is, broke down below 385.

Yep, it will probably end the day at 380 or 378. Pretty much an algorithmic meltdown in a systematic way until maybe some buyers, although I doubt it, in the last half hour.

[milwaukee mike]

When were the 4 times?

not sure, but for the dow, this is the only time since 1923 it will be down 8 weeks in a row

[d2bets]

not sure, but for the dow, this is the only time since 1923 it will be down 8 weeks in a row

I found it. It was 1970, 1980 and 2001. Also says each time the index was negative over the following 12 month period.

[Madison]

7 straight down weeks for the s&p... this has only happened 4 times since ww2, so around once every 20 years

Yep, and what is the message?

[Madison]

When were the 4 times?

I think Circa 1970/80/2000 were 2/3. Not totally sure but CNBC published this morning.

[k13]

Keep buying the dip....

[Slurry Pumper]

Da bulls are bringing out the goal line defense. A rip you a new one rally Into the close where shorts cover will cause the SPY to get above that 385 spot.
Headed to 390 and it will be treated as a win.

[d2bets]

Da bulls are bringing out the goal line defense. A rip you a new one rally Into the close where shorts cover will cause the SPY to get above that 385 spot.
Headed to 390 and it will be treated as a win.

I thought the goal line was 385. Apparently not.

[milwaukee mike]

Yep, and what is the message?

as d2bets said, so far it has been a 100% indicator that the overall market will be lower a year from now

[Slurry Pumper]

I thought the goal line was 385. Apparently not.

I can't nail every inflection point. Sometimes they come up short, other times they spike the level. Every once in a while I hit it exactly. 385 is still important.

[Slurry Pumper]

So coming out of the weekend we have another situation where there could be a short covering rally. Just like on Thursday 5/12 when the markets all spiked down to create that $385 low in the SPY, Friday we had a melt down but instead of spiking the $380 or even getting there, the SPY came up short of tanking down to that level and shot right back up in the last hour. I'm short term bullish for this week, and for confirmation the 1st number to reach is my old friend $395 then the fat number of $400 is next, after that the prize for me is the top of the break down candle from Wednesday 5/18 of $403.80. Right around the $405 area has a lot of resistance to work through so we'll see if and when the SPY gets there how the feel and conditions are.

So if on the rare occasion that I'm wrong here and the SPY's late day Friday rally was just shorts covering into the weekend and they go right back to pounding the SPY down Monday morning, its still $385, $380, $378, and that $360 is back on the table for the near term.

[Slurry Pumper]

A little pullback this morning, but I remain bullish for the week until I don't. To bring on failure, SPY dropping below Friday's close of $389.50ish and closing candles like 10 minute, 30 minute and finally 1 hour ones would have me a little concerned. Then the door would be cracked for the values I put up yesterday.

[vivablu]

a very goog guy that i follow says that the down leg will continue until spy/dia/qqq touches the bottom bollinger on the monthly cart and maybe bit lower before a rally. This level is also same as 200 sma on the weekly chart for all 3 indices. He thinks it will happen by mid year and then we will see a big rally in the 2nd half of the year to test all time highs to form double top to 2022 beginning. After the midterms will be the real epic crash that could last 1 to 2 years where you will see up to 70% wipeout to the equity market.

[Slurry Pumper]

Yesterday was mostly a day long fake out show and the SPY did get below the $389.50 number for quite awhile but in the end things didn't break down. This morning its all looking flat, so I'm still looking for the rip you another hole rally here. I know that there is news coming to finish the week, but as you know news is just a catalyst for which way the big money wants to move the market. I think we have a short squeeze rally coming so I'm hanging into those weekly calls I got on Monday that are treading water as of this morning.

[Madison]

I bought some AMZN at 2080. Also doing well with PXD and nice DIV.

[Slurry Pumper]

Its taken all week but that SPY 400 number has finally showed itself. I think we make a run of the top of the breakdown candle from Wednesday 5/18. Then there is a gap that need filling up to $405. At that point is when I'll hit the 1st exit point leaving a bit for a further push if there is time left to the week.
How about a collapse, well a 1st indicator is the old 395 spot. If we find ourselves down around that number or below for a while that would be a sign of some pain for da bulls.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well the SPY did indeed climb up and eclipse the $405 spot so I took about half of the weekly calls play maybe just slightly less off the table. Tomorrow is leading into a 3 day weekend which typically means a rally into the holiday. The prize is right at $408.50 on a reasonable day and about $411 on a short squeezing situation with a steady march up the hill.
Looking around the index markets has the QQQs while making big gains lately still climbing up the most recent breakdown candle. This is the market that has been dragging lately with some others.
DOW transports are about half way up that breakdown candle so there still is some repair work to be done there as well.
Still others like IWM, and SMH close today right at or very near the most recent high marks of just this month.
Then there is the XLF, this one has broken out leaving the most recent high marks in the dust as it ventures to close right at $35. If the XLF can continue to march up the ladder tomorrow, you can expect the next stop to be $36 for that.

Remember, just like cheap lawn furniture, it could fall apart real quick, so if the XLF is hanging around the low for today and breaks down lower than $34.50, that would be a good indicator.

Now that we are 10 days removed from when I told you all the gold bottom was in the market, I seem to be right so far. Hopefully this keeps up as the gold and gold miners have been beaten up needlessly lately. I think gold will eventually get its shit together and start leading the pack here as the inflation turns into stagflation, then as unemployment kicks in the FED will stop it all by starting the printing press again. This will be the equivalent of tossing up the white flag on inflation and that should be enough of a signal to gold that the dollar is coming back down.

[Slurry Pumper]

414.60 is quite the rip for the week. Time to collect these hard fought gains for the week and go remember the soldiers they sent into battle but didn't make it back.

[milwaukee mike]

a lot of big moves upwards, but still i would consider this a broken market

just as one example, kss (kohls) dropped over 3 points in a heartbeat when i was watching it today... on no news a mini flash-crash like that is a sign that the machines are in control and there is nothing stopping any asset from just getting crushed, or run up again like gamestop the past couple days

[Madison]

a lot of big moves upwards, but still i would consider this a broken market

just as one example, kss (kohls) dropped over 3 points in a heartbeat when i was watching it today... on no news a mini flash-crash like that is a sign that the machines are in control and there is nothing stopping any asset from just getting crushed, or run up again like gamestop the past couple days

Hard to argue. We are in an algo/machine trading world. Can work both ways though.

Thinking the short interest is becoming more and more important.

[chico2663]

as d2bets said, so far it has been a 100% indicator that the overall market will be lower a year from now

Isn’t the object is to pick the ones that won’t? Too late for me…tsla shit the bed!

[Slurry Pumper]

Isn’t the object is to pick the ones that won’t? Too late for me…tsla shit the bed!

Nope you only have to pick a direction and know when the price of the stock will change direction.

[milwaukee mike]

Nope you only have to pick a direction and know when the price of the stock will change direction.

i would agree with that

trade the market in front of you, nobody says you have to be a blind optimist if/when the situation dictates otherwise... for example when you see single-family housing really expensive here, with mortgage rates much higher than a year ago, you don't have to buy a bunch of single-family homes/condos... you can wait