[KVB]

For The first game today I have a predicted score of Ottawa winning with 24 points to Hamilton’s 17 points. My forecast disagrees in this case with virtually everyone else. Most have Hamilton winning by 7 to 10 points with at least 55 points being scored total. I not only have Ottawa winning this game, but like yesterday, I have far less points.

The line opened with Hamilton -4 and has ticked up towards the majority of forecasts to -4.5. The oddsmakers opened this Total little higher at 54 and we have seen it move down, towards my prediction to 51 points.

Ottawa plays Hamilton again next as the only matchups between these two this year. In recent weeks Ottawa has been involved in back to back games with Winnipeg and one week between Toronto games. This pattern with Ottawa continues here and, while there is no guarantee of a bet next week, I am passing on the moneyline and side bet here as we can learn from this first matchup for week 20.

The Total presents a similar situation as yesterday and while the line has moved from 54 to as low as 51 and once again I like the Under. I realize line movement has not been very costly in this CFL season, at least for this thread, and I warned early on that eventually it will make a difference.

Despite this possibility in week 19, I have, on game day, picked up the UNDER 51 (-104) for Ottawa Redblacks versus Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Recognizing that yesterday’s Under may have called for more patience, as Calgary had their biggest first quarter of the season, I have added to this position with UNDER 50.5 (+100) for Ottawa Redblacks versus Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Be careful here, there is quite a bit of line movement towards what I would consider a sharper Total line for this game and what seems to be real value has certainly lost some luster. I will take the smaller Total for even money for game 1 but notice it is listed second this time, a contrast to yesterday’s strategy for this thread.

Good Luck.

[icecapper]

I'm at the game the wind in howling..... Under.

[Mike Huntertz]

I'm at the game the wind in howling..... Under.

Thanxs .....tail under.

[KVB]

I'm at the game the wind in howling..... Under.

Nice icecapper, this is a great post. It's this kind of on the ground info that combines with the market analysis that can take us on and off plays that I was talking about earlier in the thread.

Solid.

Let's get this Under!!!

[KVB]

For the second game tonight I have Edmonton winning with 23 or 24 points to Montreal’s 13 or 14 points. Almost all forecasts agree that Edmonton will win this game but view as a closer game than the -8 open. I can identify further pressures that would counter my prediction of Edmonton to cover and am not surprised some house have pulled off of the 7 to 6.5.

Those forecasts predicting a closer game are relatively split on the Total. Some are a few points above and some a few below the opening line of 44.5. This line dropped a half point towards my prediction before ticking upward toward 45. The Total line seems fairly sharp for the books and will likely settle around this open.

The key with this last game is that money is indeed flowing and the pressures on this game are still working themselves out in the marketplace. Should Ottawa win, my forecasts will be 3-0 against the offered spreads and moneylines this week. This should apply pressure on Montreal to cover and we could see a blowout.

It’s a characteristic of the marketplace that money would flow to Montreal and sometimes that pays.

But ESPN points out that Montreal is playing for the playoffs. This represents just an example of the added subjective pressure on Montreal.

The last time these teams played, on August 13^th, my forecast was successful in all three categories. A sharp forecaster understanding the give and take of the markets might also seek Montreal.

We are seeing alignment on Montreal that could spell an Edmonton blowout. Countering the current line movement may be the play here. I will hold until we get a little more information as this first game enters halftime and gets into the second half. As you’ve seen, these games can be misleading.

I am watching this line closely but see the -7 close to even money and a -8 at +107 as potential entry points.

Part of the reason I hold here is that the general North American sports marketplace is a bit overwhelmed with a ton of different sports and action. In analyzing the markets, sometimes you can’t see everything, but taking time to look at the broader picture can often be helpful.

[KVB]

Let’s look at this second game a little further. Readers may remember similar posts earlier with this type of tracking.

This represents my prediction when compared to the moneyline offered this season. A circle means that game’s moneyline was successfully predicted. For this table, it doesn’t matter which team is predicted, or if it is an upset or favorite predicted, it just matters that the prediction was successful.

ml performance.jpg



Take a look at the West in recent weeks, especially Edmonton. I used color to visually demonstrate the streaks. I use other formulae to produce a more concrete and measurable “due factor.”

This table implies we could see an upset in the second game. That west division, especially Edmonton, is just begging for an X.

Montreal could win this game. Or, perhaps we need patience for the Winnipeg game.

[Ra77er]

This table would appeal to streak/trend bettors but doesn't really predict anything. Interesting to see that Edmonton is probably "due" much like a black after 5 or 6 reds at a roulette wheel. The difference here though is perhaps the oddsmaker has made a strong adjustment to the Eskimos number in order to try and achieve a more accurate prediction. Knowing/following the Edm line all season could give you a reasonable idea on the adjustments that have or have not been made thus far. Best of luck on the Under it is looking great.

[KVB]

This post is, for the most part, true when dealing with known trends, like ATS records. It’s a good observation in fact.

But understand that this table doesn’t represent public information. This table represents performance based on a metric that I created and, save this thread, nobody else has.

Indeed the books are very aware of those sharp bettors and in fact, my predictions do incorporate adjustments, more accurate than the oddsmaker, for most trends and would account for the betting public, depending on the groups.

The adjustments made to the line based on the above “trends” are indeed esoteric and, at this level, we are competing with the book. This table, when incorporating the other formulae mentioned and other tables, becomes highly predictive. The color was for the benefit of the reader.

There also times where this table, along with other mentioned metrics, shows just how and where the money is split as well as the direction of flow. This is especially true for sharp bettors.

Don’t underestimate the value of that table, it’s not a simple representation of ATS records and streaks, it represents an inside look into the marketplace. Any adjustments made by the bookmaker in a spread, line, or total are matched by adjustments in my forecast.

If we were dealing with simple ATS records and trying to use a similar table to predict, then the books movements would eventually beat us; it’s a matter of time. But that’s not what is happening here, we have been a step ahead most weeks and that is why my prediction is beating books.

[KVB]

ESPN calling Montreal a "must win" and, in a rare case, they are right.

While 8 point lines can be dangerous for the favorite, those upsets try to squeak by unnoticed. This game is getting noticed.

A blowout here would surely lead to future indications, implying a another Montreal opportunity, but the overall marketplace indicates Montreal is increasingly risky.

[KVB]

I think we’ve seen enough and with the right price on the opening line, it makes it worth the buy over the long haul. I have picked up Edmonton Eskimos -8 (+107) over Montreal Alouttes.

I am essentially siding with the book here and at that price it could be an attempt to pull some of us to the favorite. I'll bite for better than even money.

Good Luck.

[Mike Huntertz]

I'm at the game the wind in howling..... Under.

Beauty!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Nice work KVB!

My NFL model is 9-3-1 this week so I thought I'd pass along that I have CAR -12.8 tonight. GL!

[Hngkng]

1 Last week in the CFL

[Hngkng]

We gotta make check all depth charts to make sure who starts, and who sits for teams already in the playoffs.

[KVB]

Well this is the final week of the CFL regular season. For more reasons than one can list, it seems unwise to bet this week. Bettors will talk about motivations not being there, coaches trying new things, resting players for playoffs, etc. In fact, before a line was ever released I saw that Saskatchewan was playing Montreal in the swing game, laughed to myself, and thought that is the single best pass of the season.

After being a part of this thread, can you see why?

In any event, how do you get an upset? There can be many ways and when they combine it can be powerful. One way is by convincing some bettors that it won’t happen, or get them to pass, while building up the marketplace in the other direction.

Remember the table in this post?

Let’s look at this second game a little further. Readers may remember similar posts earlier with this type of tracking.

This represents my prediction when compared to the moneyline offered this season. A circle means that game’s moneyline was successfully predicted. For this table, it doesn’t matter which team is predicted, or if it is an upset or favorite predicted, it just matters that the prediction was successful.

ml performance.jpg



Take a look at the West in recent weeks, especially Edmonton. I used color to visually demonstrate the streaks. I use other formulae to produce a more concrete and measurable “due factor.”

This table implies we could see an upset in the second game. That west division, especially Edmonton, is just begging for an X.

Montreal could win this game. Or, perhaps we need patience for the Winnipeg game…

When I mentioned needing patience for the Winnipeg game, I was thinking Winnipeg would be the underdog and they’d win in the upset. That, of course, would have been very predictable and probably not a decent upset from the market or fool’s gold at best.

But that’s not what happened. This week’s first game opened with Toronto -7 with a Total of 50 and hasn’t seen the action to create movement on the side. My prediction has Winnipeg winning with 24 points to Toronto’s 20 points. Most basic forecasts have Toronto winning by about 4 points and I should point out that some more sophisticated models do give Winnipeg a slight edge on the moneyline.

So if I want an X in my chart, the Toronto moneyline would be the bet. But let’s look at Toronto and further pressures on the moneyline.

Since winning twice on the Canadian Thanksgiving weekend, Toronto has lost three in a row. If you consider the opening line for the game against Calgary on October 17^th, (a reaction to Thanksgiving weekend) we see Toronto has lost as a favorite all 3 times. The pressure from some bettors on the Toronto moneyline to pay is likely why this lined opened as high as 7 points. While there is pressure for Toronto to cover the spread, I would expect this 7 point line to tick downward, but only slightly as the books may not want to lessen the moneyline. Later we’ll see why it may pull off of the 7, but this moneyline factor definitely adds a real value to the +7 line.

So convincing some successful bettors Winnipeg won’t win and making the marketplace thirsty for a Toronto has some of the makings of an upset from a market perspective.

Now let’s weigh the risks. The models do predict a closer game, and some have a Winnipeg win. We don’t exactly see the same alignment we like to see in bigger upsets, but that’s not always necessary.

We know Winnipeg’s history with my predictions and the moneyline performance, but look at Toronto and the marketplace performance. In two of those three upsets, my forecast called for an upset. And that’s what I am calling for tomorrow. That’s a lot of give, and there’s bound to be a take.

A look at the broader picture shows that, including that Thanksgiving weekend and since then, my prediction against the moneyline is 14-3; there were 5 games on Thanksgiving.

Two of those three failures involved Toronto, including a highlighted one time Tuesday night game.

Essentially, there has been a lot of give and bound to be a take in my predictions against the moneyline. We are in the final week, a week in which many sharp forecasts tend to breakdown, partly for reasons mentioned in the first paragraph.

Further, sending a team to the playoffs having not covered the previous four spreads is rare and would generally initiate too much initial flow of money. This could be the most heavily weighted factor of all and ultimately a reason for Toronto to cover Friday.

I just seem to come up with reasons from a marketplace perspective to either not take Winnipeg, or even pick Toronto. Do we have a recipe for an upset?

I can tell you this much, Edmonton’s win last week stirred the pot of an upset and a Toronto win on Friday could stir it further. However, even if Winnipeg pays the +250 on Friday, it would be premature to close the book or serve the stew as Edmonton has become its own story. They will have to face the winner of BC and Calgary for the West finals.

Knowing full well we have opportunity coming in the playoffs and having identified some key ingredients for an upset I have picked up the real value with Winnipeg Blue Bombers +250 and +7 (-107) over Toronto Argonauts.

There is one other potential non-market factor that could cause worry. Generally upsets should go unnoticed but with Toronto locked into an away game as a third seed no matter what happens this week and so many with a closer forecast, we may see that spread drop to 6.5 or further by game time as the cat gets out of the bag.

It could be a close one and with Toronto pulling it out, increasing the confidence of the favorites in general marketplace heading into the playoffs. Of course, this season shows that the CFL marketplace doesn’t seem too afraid of upsets breaking confidence in the bettors.

If you’re going in on Week 20 in a game that matters to neither team then I suppose a bettor should be glad he’s getting two and a half to one.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

...I can tell you this much, Edmonton’s win last week stirred the pot of an upset and a Toronto win on Friday could stir it further. However, even if Winnipeg pays the +250 on Friday, it would be premature to close the book or serve the stew as Edmonton has become its own story. They will have to face the winner of BC and Calgary for the West finals...

[KVB]

We gotta make check all depth charts to make sure who starts, and who sits for teams already in the playoffs.

Ottawa plays Hamilton in a rematch of last week. The winner is in the finals and the loser gets a home game against Toronto.

In the West, BC will play at Calgary in the first playoff round and the winner gets Edmonton in the finals.

Ottawa playing Hamilton tomorrow decides the #1 seed. All other playoff spots are set. I can see money being traded on Hamilton versus Ottawa already and the other games are hardly touched.

Toronto is a #3 seed no matter what happens. Hopefully the first game on Friday will squeak by an upset in a game few are paying attention to. It would likely kill a number of parlays holding Toronto to win and make sense as Toronto may rest starters.

[KVB]

As I mentioned, I have a predicted score of Winnipeg’s 24 points beating Toronto’s 20 points. Those basic forecasts mentioned above with Toronto winning by about 4 points produce total scores from 49 to about 51 points. Some forecasts mentioned above that give Winnipeg the nod are far lower, into the 30’s. My prediction figures 44 total points and we have seen the line open at 50 with some pressure on the downside.

This line could have opened lower but I can identify pressures on the Over that may keep it near 50. Common season long numbers seem to put it there also. On the other hand, if there is any significant movement, it will likely be to the downside.

The problem I’m having with this total from a market perspective is that different groups of bettors are facing what I would consider market declines in their metrics.

While my forecasts from weeks 3 through 19 are 64% against spreads and 62% against moneylines, they are just fewer than 42% against the Totals with a 26-36 record.

With the give and take nature of the markets, looking for a market turn here would be a play on the Under.

But other metrics regarding totals, also in a slide of both recent and season long, also take part in the give and take of the markets. One of the reasons the line is as high as 50 is that there are groups of bettors seeking the Over here. They too look for a market turn but seek a different result.

I’ve mentioned the give and take of the markets and this is an instance at a more macro view. The market has the moneyflow split here; perhaps more than the line has the actual money split. In other words, the books might be taking a position.

This week my forecasts have Total predictions in the first three games. With the propensity for sharper money to sit this week, we may see my number more successful against the Totals as this week. The first game on Saturday offers another 50 point Total and virtually the exact same scenario as I just described above among the bettors applying meaningful pressure to the marketplace.

I think it is best to pass here. It is my feeling that the Total markets for all the bettors will be favorable once we get into the playoffs; but that doesn’t have to be true. As far as the games on Saturday, watching Friday may help us to decipher that puzzle from the market perspective.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here's the cumulative record for my lines with one week left:

		Sides		Totals
		W	L	W	L
Week 5		3	1	1	3
Week 6		4	0	1	3
Week 7		2	2	2	2
Week 8		1	3	3	1
Week 9		1	3	2	2
Week 10		1	3	3	1
Week 11		2	2	3	1
Week 12		3	1	2	2
Week 13		3	1	2	2
Week 14*		2	2	2	1
Week 15		2	2	2	2
Week 16		2	3	3	2
Week 17		2	2	1	3
Week 18		3	1	3	1
Week 19		2	2	1	3
Totals		33	28	31	29
*One total play pushed

[HeeluvaGuy]

And here's what I have for Week 20:

		Side		Total
Toronto		-3.9		49.5
Ottawa		-1.8		47
BC		-0.8		50.6
Montreal		-9.5		51.5

GL!

[KVB]

And here's what I have for Week 20:

		Side		Total
Toronto		-3.9		49.5
Ottawa		-1.8		47
BC		-0.8		50.6
Montreal		-9.5		51.5

GL!

...forecasts mentioned above with Toronto winning by about 4 points produce total scores from 49 to about 51 points...

Are you making any plays this week Guy?

[Jayvegas420]

Great write ups for the final week. I kinda disagree with the Bombers pick & the rationale attached to it.
You mentioned that one of the heaviest weiging factors against Argos backers is that, teams don't often make the playoffs having lost their last 4 ATS.
Everyone makes the playoffs in the CFL & their performance ATS can't always be positive entering the playoffs & I also don't think it weighs heavily when handicapping CFL playoffs.
I also wouldn't stay away from the total I'm that game because I feel the rested players will be predominately offensive & the defensive effort for Toronto needs to improve drastically.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Are you making any plays this week Guy?

Thinking about taking the points Friday night.

[KVB]

...You mentioned that one of the heaviest weiging factors against Argos backers is that, teams don't often make the playoffs having lost their last 4 ATS...

Toronto already made the playoffs; it’s more about entering the playoffs. It could be tough splitting money if a team enters like Toronto if they don’t cover Friday. It doesn’t mean it won’t happen, and the opponent brings its own baggage, but it puts the books in a bind.

To clarify, this is a factor for, not against Argo backers…

...Essentially, there has been a lot of give and bound to be a take in my predictions against the moneyline. We are in the final week, a week in which many sharp forecasts tend to breakdown, partly for reasons mentioned in the first paragraph.

Further, sending a team to the playoffs having not covered the previous four spreads is rare and would generally initiate too much initial flow of money. This could be the most heavily weighted factor of all and ultimately a reason for Toronto to cover Friday.

I just seem to come up with reasons from a marketplace perspective to either not take Winnipeg, or even pick Toronto. Do we have a recipe for an upset?...

***

...Everyone makes the playoffs in the CFL & their performance ATS can't always be positive entering the playoffs & I also don't think it weighs heavily when handicapping CFL playoffs...

Not sure if that’s what you meant but only 3 teams make the playoffs from each conference; not everyone makes it.

You’re right, not every team enters the playoffs having covered their last spread. But having lost 4 games and spreads in a row will have to be accounted for by the books. Who knows? They may already be accounting for it.

As far as weighing heavily on handicapping the playoffs, it may make a difference in the market analysis and money flow. The season, as well as the playoffs, will tell a story. That story is about the flow of money through games and will be represented by action on the field. We saw that early on in this thread.

For example, look at my analysis on Montreal versus Edmonton last week. Then look how the game played out. An upset was sold, to a certain degree based on previous swing games, and I explained that patience was needed and even took Edmonton. I am not surprised that Montreal started out strong and eventually Edmonton made the necessary adjustments and prevailed.

Patience may very well still be needed as the playoffs approach, but I think Winnipeg has the necessary value here and the books may be opportunistic as many bettors who truly understand real value are likely on the sidelines for this game. Remember the last play I mentioned that posted real value? That Total play lost and I gave.

Perhaps it’s time to take.

[Jayvegas420]

Interesting.
Yes, I meant to say for Argo backers.

I'm not an expert in terms of analyzing money flow but, this seems like a difficult game to determine where the money is flowing.
As you mentioned ..the line Movements might be stalled to prevent moving the money line.
So I am not getting a good read on the preliminary action.

[KVB]

...I also wouldn't stay away from the total I'm that game because I feel the rested players will be predominately offensive & the defensive effort for Toronto needs to improve drastically...

Are you thinking the Under? I was thinking the Under but they are holding this line. They might be collecting Under bets with intention of a little “steam” frosting by game time. Look for a sharp drop by game time…that would be the frosting on their little cake of Unders.

One more thing…a chart similar to the one above indicating how my forecasts have fared against the Totals, broken down by team, shows that games involving Winnipeg have failed against Totals 8 times in a row….8 times in a row! It makes sense to have one streak further in the Total evaluations; overall Totals have been worse this season.

This is Winnipeg’s last game and I predict UNDER 50 points with a score of 44. The metrics indicating Over could very well be drawing money away from the inevitable Under, but for this thread, I don’t think we need to play into the split.

My edge in the marketplace can be measured long term across almost all sports and paying vigorish for this type of split can be counterproductive. I know I suggested that my numbers could do well against the Totals this week, but that “could” is dull and tough to turn into a definable should, which would be the sharp edge we seek.

The results from this game will be like the oil and stone needed to sharpen the edge for future opportunity.

[Jayvegas420]

I am thinking under & I will be making a play at 50.5
Local lottery (Proline) requires 3 game parlays but lines are fixed daily.
I have another side that I like as the second olay but proline requires a side to win by 4 or more (-3.5).
Everything else in the middle is a tie, which usually pays very poor odds again.
I am looking for a 3rd pick!

[KVB]

...I'm not an expert in terms of analyzing money flow but, this seems like a difficult game to determine where the money is flowing.
As you mentioned ..the line Movements might be stalled to prevent moving the money line.
So I am not getting a good read on the preliminary action.

This is why we look at the types of bettors involved, see what’s been happening to them, and ask ourselves who's where. I'm not the only one looking at Winnipeg, and that works against the upset, but, for a few reasons and in a few metrics, there is a lot of pressure on Toronto.

Understand that the “pressure” on Toronto is there for a very real reason…because similar circumstances will often pay. But we know the books know this and you better believe they will exploit it.

Indeed, I may be battling the books a bit on this one and will understand what happened if Toronto blows them out, or even if it’s a loss on the last play…moneyline or spread.

Scary thing for the Total bet is that such a loss on the last play or in OT (or even the opposite with a back door cover or late upset win) could also bring a late Over; and that possibility has to be considered.

The first game of any week carries screwy risks; this week is just that much screwier.

Trying to anticipate the flow of money can be important, but like I said, the Total has a nearly identical bet early Saturday. As far as the game getting all the attention and money, Hamilton vs. Ottawa, my forecast calls for a pick em. While it may predict the underdog to cover 3 points, I don’t predict a moneyline winner.

All of this is to set the stage for the playoffs.

[KVB]

I am thinking under & I will be making a play at 50.5
Local lottery (Proline) requires 3 game parlays but lines are fixed daily.
I have another side that I like as the second olay but proline requires a side to win by 4 or more (-3.5).
Everything else in the middle is a tie, which usually pays very poor odds again.
I am looking for a 3rd pick!

Tough to force one here for sure. Toronto by a field goal or less is such a possibility.

[Jayvegas420]

I was thinking of taking BYU by 4.
Spreads are the same but I don't like Temple as much.

[KVB]

Talk about reading moneyflow. Tonight I surveyed the entire marketplace. It took a lot of time to get a feel for where the books were headed for the day.

When reading the markets, time is money and value decreases with time. Time is also information. Therefore, in taking the time to get more information it costs value in the form of real money.

By the time I realized what to buy, I had lost much value in the NHL game and just barely got the best of the NBA. The NCAAF game was picked when Nevada went up 7-0.

It took time, and I only post the 5 Dimes, but here is how I was positioned for the final events of the day, all after they began...

5D Thur night.jpg

[KVB]

Are you thinking the Under? I was thinking the Under but they are holding this line. They might be collecting Under bets with intention of a little “steam” frosting by game time. Look for a sharp drop by game time…that would be the frosting on their little cake of Unders...

We are not seeing that drop, this game could very well be the Under tonight.

If the books aren't trying to sweeten a side, it indicates Winnipeg's final game to go Under.

Sort of a reaction to non movement.

Hmmm...

[KVB]

We are starting to see some pressure on Toronto -7.

Tough to pull that line off of 7 either way but price shifts on the 7 possibly being used to justify moneyline shifts.

[Jayvegas420]

The total closed at 49 flat at bet365.
I got 50.5.
I ended up having to take Temple as the BYU game was not offered on proline.