David Murphy (OF - CLE). Murphy signed with Cleveland as a free agent after a horribly disappointing final season in Texas, in which Murphy slashed a weak .220/.282/.374. Murphy should post better numbers in 2014, given that his BA was dragged down by a .227 BABIP, which was almost 80 points lower than his career rate. Murphy's other peripherals (12.4% K rate, .154 ISO, 19.3 line drive % and 9.2% HR/FB rate) were generally in line with his career numbers, so his results in 2013 can be summed up simply as bad luck on balls in play.
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While some improvement can therefore be expected in Murphy's 2014 results (we project him to hit .275/.345/.443 with 14 HR and 70 RBI), there are several warning signs that should temper enthusiasm for Murphy. One is the apparent disappearance of his speed game (10 SBs in 2012 and only 1 in 2013), coupled with the fact that he will now be playing for a manager who ranks as one of the more conservative with respect to the run game. Another is the fact that he is moving to a less hitter-favorable home park. Finally, Murphy is expected to platoon with Ryan Raburn in the Indian outfield and, although he will be on the strong side of the platoon, this will limit his counting stat production. All-in-all Murphy is probably not draft-worthy in mixed leagues, although he should be considered in AL-only and extremely deep mixed leagues.
Asdrubal Cabrera (SS - CLE). Cabrera will be an interesting case study in 2014. Is he the player who slashed .273/.332/.460 with 25 HR in 2011 or the one who fell off to .242/.299/.402 in 2013. The answer is probably somewhere in between. Cabrera's 2011 power numbers were the result of a likely unrepeatable 13.3% HR/FB rate (the only time Cabrera has exceeded a 10% rate in his career. On the other hand, Cabrera's BA in 2013 was suppressed by a .283 BABIP, which is 30 points lower than his career average. What, then, to expect in 2014? We project Cabrera to post a .265/.317/.442 line in 2014, with 16 HR and 10 SB. There is the possibility that Cabrera could post even better power numbers, though. He has shown a steadily increasing FB rate over the last three years and even a slight uptick in HR/FB rate could add 2 or 3 HR to Cabrera's total. Cabrera's counting stats in 2013 were also negatively impacted by the fact that he missed almost a month with a torn quad muscle. Given the relative dearth of power at the SS position, Cabrera is an attractive target after the elite shortstop options are off the board and could in fact be a bargain given his current 15.04 ADP.