Looks really good 2 me
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Looks really good 2 me
SBR Founder Join Date: 11/16/2005
If you play this, you better root your ass off for the Bears this week.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/22/2005
Excellent analysis. I'd certainly have to agree with your conclusion.Originally Posted by Korchnoi
Nevertheless, I do have one problem with the specifics of your methodology. Namely, you're implictly assuming that the transformation of win probability to point spread would be distributive over composite probabilities. This does not have to hold in the general case.
The way I might go about it would be as follows:
From Pinnacle:
And after doing a bit of linear algebra one comes up with the following probabilities of winning a given Super Bowl matchup, along with the associated probability of that matchup occuring:Code:Prob of Winning Super Bowl: CHI 18.06% IND 38.86% NE 26.97% NO 16.11% Prob of Winning Championship Game: CHI 55.23% IND 61.50% NE 38.50% NO 44.77%
As a rough estimate we could pretty much stop here as by insepction it's readily apparent that the following associated approximate point spreads (and matchup probabilities) imply an expectation worth fewer than 6 points for the NFC.Code:NO 30.70% NE 69.30% 17.23% matchup probability NO 39.29% IND 60.71% 27.53% matchup probability CHI 29.33% NE 70.67% 21.26% matchup probability CHI 34.82% IND 65.18% 33.97% matchup probability
However, if we really wanted to be strict about this we would first impute from each of the above four matchup probabilities the probability of covering a 6 point spread. Once this was accomplished determining the fair value for AFC 6 would become a simple excersise in expectations.Code:NO +6 vs. NE (17.23%) NO +3 vs. IND (27.53%) CHI +6½ vs. NE (21.26%) CHI +4½ vs. IND (33.97%)
So for example, as a firstorder approximation (through linear interpolation of a score frequency chart) we could say that given the above probabilities of winning the respective matchups, the probability of the AFC winning by more than 6 points (conditioned on not pushing) would in each case be:
Hence, the probability of winning AFC 6 would be 49.57%*17.23% + 40.70%*27.53% + 50.98%*21.26% + 45.31%*33.97% = 45.98%.Code:NE 6 / NO: 49.57% IND 6 / NO: 40.70% NE 6 / CHI: 50.98% IND 6 / CHI: 45.31%
So by this analysis this means that AFC 6 would be a good bet at about +118 or better, and
at 110 the expectation of AFC 6 would be ~ 12.2%.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
Definitely close enough. The difference between 11.5% and 12.2% would be well within the margin of error of the frequency chart anyway.Originally Posted by Korchnoi
BTW, Bet Jamaica's currently offering NFC +5½ +100.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
Thanks a lot fellas.
You guys are too good.
SBR Founder Join Date: 11/16/2005
If the Bears make it, then yes. If the Saints make it, then no. I will just wait to see what the match up is, so I can cap the two teams.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Good call son
SBR Founder Join Date: 9/20/2005